What does the future hold for youth organisations?
foresight is…understanding your changing world
& so making better decisions
spotting the storm before it hits (buying you time to plan)
foresight helps you reduce risk – by anticipating
preparedness not prediction
it helps avoid surprises
foresight helps you be prepared: to stay innovative
and relevant.to shape the
future you want, not just react
foresight helps you choose a hill so you can plan the right moves to get there
so it goes before planning…
decide what you’re about
evaluate, learn…
do it !
foresight
spot options, make choices
plan
‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent, it’s the most adaptable’
so, how do you do foresight ?
it’s a three-part process
what trends or forces (drivers)may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries ?(for good or ill)
so what are the implications ?
now what to do about it ?
where to start…?
NCVO Foresight makes it easy: 100 drivers (trends) at 3s4.org.uk
• tailor the drivers yourself to make them relevant and specific
• share views and news with the sector
• sign up to the bulletin
• NCVYS drivers under ‘specialist sectors’
at http://www.3s4.org.uk/drivers• (
http://www.3s4.org.uk/drivers/categories/youth-organisations)
NCVYS Third Sector Foresight
• Secondment to NCVO-To research ‘drivers’ impacting on voluntary youth organisations in the next 5 years • 3s4 Website-Dedicated space for these drivers & forum for debate
• The event-Chance to explore drivers and think ahead to future
Objectives and Outcomes
• Discover Drivers- Analyse external drivers which may impact on youth organisations
• Explore Implications - Understand the impact these drivers might have and how youth organisations can respond
let’s futurise !what might the headlines be for the youth sector in…
2015 ?
2020 ?
2025 ?
PEST : a good old toolpolitics (& legal)
•Continued shift from grants to contracts•Individual budgets•Fast changing localism agenda•Next election change of government?
economics (& environment)
•Economic downturn squeezing funding•Increasing competition for less funding•Efficiency and value for money•Changes to how infrastructure is funded
society
•Ageing population•New migrant populations•Inequality between local areas
technology
•Growth of online communities•Empowered consumers/information society
e.g. trends and forces affecting the voluntary and community sector by 2020
here’s one from another Foresight event
and here’s what NCVYS members came up with... (zoom in for a closer look)
Step 2: Sifting & Sorting. (still the What?)
• drivers you see as most important
• drivers you feel will have biggest impact
• drivers you think most likely to happen
Dom and participants at the event did this. They developed the following 6 drivers...
The Changing Role of Young People
Positives
Involvement in communityParticipation
Interested in broader politics
Adaptable to changeLeading in social media
Anti-social behaviourInactivity
UnemploymentDisengaged from politics
No time for childhoodNever switching off
Negatives
VS
SafeguardingA ‘new’ system is being developed – the requirements for charities is changing
Policy has been driven by media
More to safeguarding than policy
Are you aware of the changes?Do you have policies and procedures in place?Are you influencing the debate on safeguarding?What do staff need to know?
Constraints Risks Opportunities
Youth unemploymentYouth NEET/unemployment figures stubbornly high.
Long-standing structural problems facing those at the bottom end of the education system and labour market
Long-term impact of youth unemployment on their prospects, health etc. And impact on society.
BUT with some new opportunities in education, how can VCS respond?
Marginalised young people
At risk of offendingVCS works best with these young people.Payment by results – opportunities and concerns
Universal vs Targeted supportHow can vulnerable young people be supported?How can the VCS influence the national policy debate?
Inequality gap – intergenerational debt
Multiple challenges
Young people’s healthYoung people inevitable engage in risk-taking behaviour
Drug-taking, sexual promiscuity, poor dietary and exercise habits
Wider concerns - interlinked with mental health, being outside, technological changes
Outdoor play and the importance of community places
Youth organisations and government
• What is the future of financial support from the government?What role will the VCS take?
• Will services be focussed on only the most disadvantaged?
• What will changes mean for the independence of the VCYS?
• What is the future of youth work (and indeed ‘youth’)?
Other Relevant Drivers …..
• Policies on active citizenship
and volunteering
• Commissioning
• Expectations of evidence
• Public service cuts
• Trends in volunteering
• Climate change
• Poverty and inequality
• Public spaces
• Digital exclusion
• Olympics
• Attitudes towards poverty
quick thoughts
do these drivers reflect the potential challenges &
opportunities for your organisations?
which will have the biggest impact?
which are most certain ? (to happen, and/or to
happen in a certain way) eg elections
are any missing?
PlanDevelop
scenarios
Develop tactics and
policies Review
HIGH IMPACT
LOWER IMPACT
UN
CERTA
IN
CERTA
IN
ranking drivers
high impact / certain drivers will often end up in your strategic plan
but uncertain drivers, where you are not clear about them and/or their implications, may have the greatest impact because you are less able to prepare
driver implications grid(also possible as a mindmap !)
External implications Internal implications
Users & theirneeds
Funders & their priorities
Relationships & influence
Workforce (paid, volunteer) & Trustees
The organisation’s work (services & activities)
Governance including accountability &evaluation
Systems, Skills,Technology(communications, administration, management etc)
the grid helps you think through the strategic implications of a driver (eg: ageing population) for your organisation by considering the impact on the internal & external parts of the organisation in turn.
under each heading, write:challenges, threats & risks that might emergeopportunities for improving effectiveness & impactkeep it strategic !
Here’s what we did at the NCVYS event on:Employment prospects for young people
now what? (how to respond)
we identified drivers, ranked the most important, & considered their
implications in terms of opportunities & threats
now take the same driver which you put through the implications grid:
1. recap the implications
2. you are the trustees / senior staff : brainstorm possible responses
3. what are the strengths & weaknesses of each response?
4. decide which three responses are best
TIPS: - you need to decide whether to be your organisation, a generic
organisation, your sector etc...- think in terms of improvement, innovations, & improvisations
And here’s what we did at the NCVYS event on:Employment prospects for young people
how might you
embed strategic
foresight in your
organisation &
networks ?
we can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity, and have lots of downloadable materials to do it yourself
ncvo foresight www.3s4.org.uk
And finally… a step back to the big picture
NCVO research has come up with the top 3 trends to 2020
NCVO worked with:9 regional infrastructure orgs
8 subsector umbrellas
3 years’ training & coaching
►tailored trends @ 3s4.org.uk
1 final workshop(see how NCVO hammered it out: bit.ly/cDNFMi)
the top 3 trends to 2020
1. funding diversity& innovation
2. growth in web technologies
3. new & shiftingsocial inequalities
looking back from 2020
(permanent beta, please don’t sue)
the ‘teens’ began with an ill-defined wish for ‘change’, then bitter battles
over how change should look
in 2020
the 2000s seem as distant as the 1970s did in 2010
there was lots of noise about ideology v necessity until 2015
but like it or not, it’s now clear the coalition (& after) was part of a global shift in how the state delivers
why?
multi-crunch of economy, climate, natural resources, ageing
(+ stubborn, rising social need)
the term ‘big society’ was shortlived
but there’s still a constant
mash-up of old/new words
to try to engage citizens in
solutions (that don’t
increase the state’s costs)
‘big / good / local / citizen
/ society / government’
unfair cutting of a smaller cakerising expectations (equalities laws, healthcare, etc)vdwindling tax base
white-ish, ‘rich’, baby-boomers-plus vyoung, diverse, migrants,undeserving poor
unusual alliances on both sides of various divides
2010: 36p per £1 of charity income was from government
rapidly cut to 2003/04 levels (ie: pre-ChangeUp…)
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03* 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/080.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
8.08.5
9.6 9.7
11.311.9
12.8
Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (£billions): NCVO
innovation nation
eg: social impact bonds
2010 pilot @ peterborough prison
raised £5m
if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ would share out savings
but what counts? who counts it?
technology helped - exponentially (click twice)
the network effectnot just comms & campaigns
explosive growth for good ideas & tools
massive efficiencies
emphasis on access to stuff,
not ownership
near death of print media
in 2020 your mobile is your main web tool
but the ‘IT poor’ persist
global web
philanthropy
exchanges
50+ in 2010
you = philanthropist
direct relationship
giving without the middle-man
‘atomised collectivity’ (what in 2010 we called ‘community’)
small government (& small society?)
web-enabled micro-volunteering :
what Clay Shirky called your
‘cognitive surplus’
single equalities act
► ‘diversity mosaic’, not blending
what role for your organisation if
people can source everything direct?
what does all this mean for our near future?
local, individual & community solutions
grassroots organising: facilitated by technology, driven by need
all parties try to conceptualise and harness this (eg NESTA’s ‘mass localism’)
but no consensus yet on:big / smallsociety / government
we think we know better than experts & government, & support others getting involved
but volunteering is stubbornly static, even after 13 years of Labour investment !
2001 2003 2005 2007/08 2008/090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
6763
6864 62
3437 37 35 35
At least once a yearOnce a month
Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-relatives in the last 12 months Citizenship Survey
there are so many ifs. eg…
how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success? (%)
Ipsos-MORI for OTS
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