What does the future hold for youth organisations? 

foresight is…understanding your changing world

& so making better decisions

spotting the storm before it hits (buying you time to plan)

foresight helps you reduce risk – by anticipating

preparedness not prediction

it helps avoid surprises

foresight helps you be prepared: to stay innovative

and relevant.to shape the

future you want, not just react

foresight helps you choose a hill so you can plan the right moves to get there

so it goes before planning…

decide what you’re about

evaluate, learn…

do it !

foresight

spot options, make choices

plan

‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent, it’s the most adaptable’

so, how do you do foresight ?

it’s a three-part process

what trends or forces (drivers)may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries ?(for good or ill)

so what are the implications ?

now what to do about it ?

where to start…?

NCVO Foresight makes it easy: 100 drivers (trends) at 3s4.org.uk

• tailor the drivers yourself to make them relevant and specific

• share views and news with the sector

• sign up to the bulletin

• NCVYS drivers under ‘specialist sectors’

at http://www.3s4.org.uk/drivers• (

http://www.3s4.org.uk/drivers/categories/youth-organisations)

NCVYS Third Sector Foresight

• Secondment to NCVO-To research ‘drivers’ impacting on voluntary youth organisations in the next 5 years • 3s4 Website-Dedicated space for these drivers & forum for debate

• The event-Chance to explore drivers and think ahead to future

Objectives and Outcomes

• Discover Drivers- Analyse external drivers which may impact on youth organisations

• Explore Implications - Understand the impact these drivers might have and how youth organisations can respond

let’s futurise !what might the headlines be for the youth sector in…

2015 ?

2020 ?

2025 ?

PEST : a good old toolpolitics (& legal)

•Continued shift from grants to contracts•Individual budgets•Fast changing localism agenda•Next election change of government?

economics (& environment)

•Economic downturn squeezing funding•Increasing competition for less funding•Efficiency and value for money•Changes to how infrastructure is funded

society

•Ageing population•New migrant populations•Inequality between local areas

technology

•Growth of online communities•Empowered consumers/information society

e.g. trends and forces affecting the voluntary and community sector by 2020

here’s one from another Foresight event

and here’s what NCVYS members came up with... (zoom in for a closer look)

Step 2: Sifting & Sorting. (still the What?)

• drivers you see as most important

• drivers you feel will have biggest impact

• drivers you think most likely to happen

Dom and participants at the event did this. They developed the following 6 drivers...

The Changing Role of Young People

Positives

Involvement in communityParticipation

Interested in broader politics

Adaptable to changeLeading in social media

Anti-social behaviourInactivity

UnemploymentDisengaged from politics

No time for childhoodNever switching off

Negatives

VS

SafeguardingA ‘new’ system is being developed – the requirements for charities is changing

Policy has been driven by media

More to safeguarding than policy

Are you aware of the changes?Do you have policies and procedures in place?Are you influencing the debate on safeguarding?What do staff need to know?

Constraints Risks Opportunities

Youth unemploymentYouth NEET/unemployment figures stubbornly high.

Long-standing structural problems facing those at the bottom end of the education system and labour market

Long-term impact of youth unemployment on their prospects, health etc. And impact on society.

BUT with some new opportunities in education, how can VCS respond?

Marginalised young people

At risk of offendingVCS works best with these young people.Payment by results – opportunities and concerns

Universal vs Targeted supportHow can vulnerable young people be supported?How can the VCS influence the national policy debate?

Inequality gap – intergenerational debt

Multiple challenges

Young people’s healthYoung people inevitable engage in risk-taking behaviour

Drug-taking, sexual promiscuity, poor dietary and exercise habits

Wider concerns - interlinked with mental health, being outside, technological changes

Outdoor play and the importance of community places

Youth organisations and government

• What is the future of financial support from the government?What role will the VCS take?

• Will services be focussed on only the most disadvantaged?

• What will changes mean for the independence of the VCYS?

• What is the future of youth work (and indeed ‘youth’)?

Other Relevant Drivers …..

• Policies on active citizenship

and volunteering

• Commissioning

• Expectations of evidence

• Public service cuts

• Trends in volunteering

• Climate change

• Poverty and inequality

• Public spaces

• Digital exclusion

• Olympics

• Attitudes towards poverty

quick thoughts

do these drivers reflect the potential challenges &

opportunities for your organisations?

which will have the biggest impact?

which are most certain ? (to happen, and/or to

happen in a certain way) eg elections

are any missing?

PlanDevelop

scenarios

Develop tactics and

policies Review

HIGH IMPACT

LOWER IMPACT

UN

CERTA

IN

CERTA

IN

ranking drivers

high impact / certain drivers will often end up in your strategic plan

but uncertain drivers, where you are not clear about them and/or their implications, may have the greatest impact because you are less able to prepare

driver implications grid(also possible as a mindmap !)

External implications Internal implications

Users & theirneeds

Funders & their priorities

Relationships & influence

Workforce (paid, volunteer) & Trustees

The organisation’s work (services & activities)

Governance including accountability &evaluation

Systems, Skills,Technology(communications, administration, management etc)

the grid helps you think through the strategic implications of a driver (eg: ageing population) for your organisation by considering the impact on the internal & external parts of the organisation in turn.

under each heading, write:challenges, threats & risks that might emergeopportunities for improving effectiveness & impactkeep it strategic !

Here’s what we did at the NCVYS event on:Employment prospects for young people

now what? (how to respond)

we identified drivers, ranked the most important, & considered their

implications in terms of opportunities & threats

now take the same driver which you put through the implications grid:

1. recap the implications

2. you are the trustees / senior staff : brainstorm possible responses

3. what are the strengths & weaknesses of each response?

4. decide which three responses are best

TIPS: - you need to decide whether to be your organisation, a generic

organisation, your sector etc...- think in terms of improvement, innovations, & improvisations

And here’s what we did at the NCVYS event on:Employment prospects for young people

how might you

embed strategic

foresight in your

organisation &

networks ?

we can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity, and have lots of downloadable materials to do it yourself

ncvo foresight www.3s4.org.uk

And finally… a step back to the big picture

NCVO research has come up with the top 3 trends to 2020

NCVO worked with:9 regional infrastructure orgs

8 subsector umbrellas

3 years’ training & coaching

►tailored trends @ 3s4.org.uk

1 final workshop(see how NCVO hammered it out: bit.ly/cDNFMi)

the top 3 trends to 2020

1. funding diversity& innovation

2. growth in web technologies

3. new & shiftingsocial inequalities

looking back from 2020

(permanent beta, please don’t sue)

the ‘teens’ began with an ill-defined wish for ‘change’, then bitter battles

over how change should look

in 2020

the 2000s seem as distant as the 1970s did in 2010

there was lots of noise about ideology v necessity until 2015

but like it or not, it’s now clear the coalition (& after) was part of a global shift in how the state delivers

why?

multi-crunch of economy, climate, natural resources, ageing

(+ stubborn, rising social need)

the term ‘big society’ was shortlived

but there’s still a constant

mash-up of old/new words

to try to engage citizens in

solutions (that don’t

increase the state’s costs)

‘big / good / local / citizen

/ society / government’

unfair cutting of a smaller cakerising expectations (equalities laws, healthcare, etc)vdwindling tax base

white-ish, ‘rich’, baby-boomers-plus vyoung, diverse, migrants,undeserving poor

unusual alliances on both sides of various divides

2010: 36p per £1 of charity income was from government

rapidly cut to 2003/04 levels (ie: pre-ChangeUp…)

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03* 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/080.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

8.08.5

9.6 9.7

11.311.9

12.8

Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (£billions): NCVO

innovation nation

eg: social impact bonds

2010 pilot @ peterborough prison

raised £5m

if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ would share out savings

but what counts? who counts it?

technology helped - exponentially (click twice)

the network effectnot just comms & campaigns

explosive growth for good ideas & tools

massive efficiencies

emphasis on access to stuff,

not ownership

near death of print media

in 2020 your mobile is your main web tool

but the ‘IT poor’ persist

global web

philanthropy

exchanges

50+ in 2010

you = philanthropist

direct relationship

giving without the middle-man

‘atomised collectivity’ (what in 2010 we called ‘community’)

small government (& small society?)

web-enabled micro-volunteering :

what Clay Shirky called your

‘cognitive surplus’

single equalities act

► ‘diversity mosaic’, not blending

what role for your organisation if

people can source everything direct?

what does all this mean for our near future?

local, individual & community solutions

grassroots organising: facilitated by technology, driven by need

all parties try to conceptualise and harness this (eg NESTA’s ‘mass localism’)

but no consensus yet on:big / smallsociety / government

we think we know better than experts & government, & support others getting involved

but volunteering is stubbornly static, even after 13 years of Labour investment !

2001 2003 2005 2007/08 2008/090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

6763

6864 62

3437 37 35 35

At least once a yearOnce a month

Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-relatives in the last 12 months Citizenship Survey

there are so many ifs. eg…

how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success? (%)

Ipsos-MORI for OTS