COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and
Adoption
Kathy E. Gill
27 January 2009
Theories (recap) (1/2)
Scientific Humanistic
Why: Discover the “truth”
Create meaning
Values: Objectivity “Emancipation”
Purpose: Determine universal laws
Provide rules for interpretation
Theories (recap) (2/2)
Scientific Humanistic
Research Methods:
Quantitative: experiment, survey
Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis
Judged by: Explains data Predicts future Testable hypothesis Practicality
Explains human behavior Clarifies values Consensus Ability to reform society
Two Theories of Mediated Communication
• Shannon-Weaver• “Transmission model” or “hypodermic model
• Osgood & Schramm• “Circular model” that stresses the social nature of
communication
Thinking About Rogers and
Christensen …
Linear innovation-diffusion theory
The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the
members of a social system.
Rogers, 1995, page 5
Elements
• Innovation
• Social system
• Time
• Communications channels
Innovation
• An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption
Communication
• A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding
Infographic credited to NYT
Social System
• A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.
• Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.
Innovation-Decision Process
• The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)
Rogers: Five steps of adoption
• Knowledge
• Persuasion
• Decision (adopt or reject)
• Implementation
• Confirmation
Critical Mass
• Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”
Adopter categories
• Innovators
• Early adopters
• Early majority
• Late majority
• Laggards
Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”
The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, AccessJuly 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”
The Five-Year Forecast: Personal DevicesJuly 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”
More than 55% of households will have a DVR by 2011?
Source: Forrester’s North American Consumer Technology Adoption Study 2006 Benchmark Survey
Technological Innovations
• Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object.
• Software - the knowledge base for the tool
For additional thought …
• Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today?
• Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? …. ? v Google?
• What is today’s “railroad” sector?
• Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, cellphone contracts … what do they have in common?
Thinking About Rogers and Christensen …
we’ll talk about disruptive technologies
Credits
• Presentation by Kathy E. Gill, [email protected], @kegill CC share-and-share alike, non-commercial use
• “S-curve” from http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cm05/overview05/keycomms/
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