Abundance within Planetary Boundaries
Prof. Johan Rockstrm Stockholm Resilience Centre
IIASA 12th March 2015
Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
2 Photos: Mattias Klum
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The New Global Context
Welcome to the Anthropocene Rising risks of tipping points
Holocene our desired state of the Planet
Great transformation to world prosperity on a stable and resilient planet
Abundance within Planetary Boundaries
Living in a world characterised by: super wicked problems
World Economic Forum (WEF), Global Risks Report 2013 Helbing, D. (2013)
Globally networked risks and how to respond. Nature.
Syria drought and the civil war
An EAT perspective on the Great Acceleration
Revised great acceleration figures generously provided by: Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch, Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig, in prep (2014). Other Data Sources: Bach J.F., (2002). World Cancer Research Fund American Institute for Cancer Research, FAOstat, Land Commodities Research. Photo: atelierfood.se
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Earth System Impacts
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
CO2 concentration Biodiversity loss Land degradation Water use O3 depletion ...
GREAT ACCELERATION
Rising Global Risks
Source: IGBP.net
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Glo
bal
Tem
pera
ture
(C)
IPCC Projections 2100 AD
Now
Might the Earth System move to a new state? This would pose a severe challenge to contemporary civilization. Possibly a collapse?
2001
2007
2013
Global Challenges Foundation
Risks related to agreed global goal of 450 ppm
Probability of Exceedance
Average Global Temp rise at Equilibrium (C)
6
1,6%
4
7%
45 Photo: Mattias Klum
Melt of Greenland ice shelf
Boreal forest dieback
Atlantic deep water formation
Dieback of Amazon rainforest
Change in ENSO amplitude of frequency
Instability of West Antarctic ice shelf
Arctic sea-ice loss
Permafrost and tundra loss?
Boreal forest dieback
Climate change induced ozone hole?
Indian monsoon chaotic multistability
Sahara greening
West African monsoon shift
Changes in Antarctic bottom water formation?
Global Tipping Elements
Two giants colliding
Photo: N. Wijkmark/Azote
Are we leaving Edens Garden?
The Holocene - Humankinds 10 000 years of grace Stockholm Resilience Centre and Rockstrm and others, Ecology and Society 2009:14
Photo: Michael A. Stecker
Human Prosperity within Safe Operating Space of
Planetary Boundaries
Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity
Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015
Global CO2 Emissions & Distribution (GtC) 365 (335-395)
180 (100-260)
155 (125-185)
150 (60-240)
240 (230-250)
ATMOSPHERE
TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
OCEANS
545 (230-250)
Preindustrial Pre-industrial
1950 1950
1970 1970
1990 1990
Current Current
A new direction: People and Planet Setting the agenda on Sustainable Development Goals
The future of energy: an accelerating challenge IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012)
Photo: commons.wikimedia.com
Answering the challenge: green energy IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012)
Photo: GreenGo Energy A/S
Solar PV installations leading countries Wind power in leading countries
New collaborations for global sustainability WBCSD, World Resources Institute & SRC
Growth Without Limits
Limits to Growth
Growth within Limits
Abundance within Planetary Boundaries
Social Tipping Point?
www.igbp.net www.stockholmresilience.org
www.futureearth.info www.globaia.org
www.anthropocene.info
More information
The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch ,Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig 2015 Anthropocene Review Based on Steffen et al. (2004) Global Change and the Earth System
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Syria drought and the civil warSlide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Rising Global RisksSlide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49Slide Number 50Slide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54Slide Number 55Slide Number 56Slide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 60Slide Number 61Slide Number 62Slide Number 63Slide Number 64Slide Number 65Slide Number 66Slide Number 67Slide Number 68Slide Number 69Slide Number 70Slide Number 71Slide Number 73Slide Number 76Slide Number 77Slide Number 81Slide Number 82Social Tipping Point?www.igbp.netwww.stockholmresilience.orgwww.futureearth.infowww.globaia.orgwww.anthropocene.info
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