Abundance within Planetary Boundaries

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Abundance within Planetary Boundaries Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre IIASA 12th March 2015 Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

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by Professor Dr Johan Rockström, Executive Director of Stockholm Resilience Centre. About the lecture: Three recent scientific insights define our future in the 21st century, and reformulate the way we define sustainable development and our opportunities for meeting human needs in this crucial year when the global community will set a new post 2015 agenda and a new climate change agreement. We have (1) become our own geological epoch, the Anthropocene, where humanity constitutes the largest force of change on the planet, (2) we now face rapidly rising risks of inducing tipping points that could disrupt the Earth system and modern civilisations with it, and (3) the fundamental insight that the Holocene, our “Edens garden” of environmental stability over past 10,700 years is our unique and desired planetary state, defining our biophysical safe operating space. Combining these three scientific insights with our ethical responsibility of sharing equitably the remaining ecological space on Earth and respecting the right to development for all citizens, means that the world must develop within a safe and just operating space of a stable and resilient planet. Interestingly, this is not only humanity’s new grand challenge but also a grand opportunity.

Transcript of Abundance within Planetary Boundaries

  • Abundance within Planetary Boundaries

    Prof. Johan Rockstrm Stockholm Resilience Centre

    IIASA 12th March 2015

    Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

  • 2 Photos: Mattias Klum

    3 - 6 - 9 4 10

  • The New Global Context

    Welcome to the Anthropocene Rising risks of tipping points

    Holocene our desired state of the Planet

    Great transformation to world prosperity on a stable and resilient planet

    Abundance within Planetary Boundaries

  • Living in a world characterised by: super wicked problems

    World Economic Forum (WEF), Global Risks Report 2013 Helbing, D. (2013)

    Globally networked risks and how to respond. Nature.

  • Syria drought and the civil war

  • An EAT perspective on the Great Acceleration

    Revised great acceleration figures generously provided by: Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch, Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig, in prep (2014). Other Data Sources: Bach J.F., (2002). World Cancer Research Fund American Institute for Cancer Research, FAOstat, Land Commodities Research. Photo: atelierfood.se

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Earth System Impacts

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

  • 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

    CO2 concentration Biodiversity loss Land degradation Water use O3 depletion ...

    GREAT ACCELERATION

  • Rising Global Risks

  • Source: IGBP.net

    2

    4

    3

    5

    6

    1

    0

    Glo

    bal

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    (C)

    IPCC Projections 2100 AD

    Now

    Might the Earth System move to a new state? This would pose a severe challenge to contemporary civilization. Possibly a collapse?

  • 2001

    2007

    2013

  • Global Challenges Foundation

    Risks related to agreed global goal of 450 ppm

    Probability of Exceedance

    Average Global Temp rise at Equilibrium (C)

    6

    1,6%

    4

    7%

  • 45 Photo: Mattias Klum

  • Melt of Greenland ice shelf

    Boreal forest dieback

    Atlantic deep water formation

    Dieback of Amazon rainforest

    Change in ENSO amplitude of frequency

    Instability of West Antarctic ice shelf

    Arctic sea-ice loss

    Permafrost and tundra loss?

    Boreal forest dieback

    Climate change induced ozone hole?

    Indian monsoon chaotic multistability

    Sahara greening

    West African monsoon shift

    Changes in Antarctic bottom water formation?

    Global Tipping Elements

  • Two giants colliding

    Photo: N. Wijkmark/Azote

  • Are we leaving Edens Garden?

  • The Holocene - Humankinds 10 000 years of grace Stockholm Resilience Centre and Rockstrm and others, Ecology and Society 2009:14

    Photo: Michael A. Stecker

  • Human Prosperity within Safe Operating Space of

    Planetary Boundaries

  • Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity

    Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015

  • Global CO2 Emissions & Distribution (GtC) 365 (335-395)

    180 (100-260)

    155 (125-185)

    150 (60-240)

    240 (230-250)

    ATMOSPHERE

    TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS

    OCEANS

    545 (230-250)

  • Preindustrial Pre-industrial

  • 1950 1950

  • 1970 1970

  • 1990 1990

  • Current Current

  • A new direction: People and Planet Setting the agenda on Sustainable Development Goals

  • The future of energy: an accelerating challenge IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012)

    Photo: commons.wikimedia.com

  • Answering the challenge: green energy IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012)

    Photo: GreenGo Energy A/S

    Solar PV installations leading countries Wind power in leading countries

  • New collaborations for global sustainability WBCSD, World Resources Institute & SRC

  • Growth Without Limits

    Limits to Growth

    Growth within Limits

    Abundance within Planetary Boundaries

  • Social Tipping Point?

  • www.igbp.net www.stockholmresilience.org

    www.futureearth.info www.globaia.org

    www.anthropocene.info

    More information

    The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch ,Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig 2015 Anthropocene Review Based on Steffen et al. (2004) Global Change and the Earth System

    Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Syria drought and the civil warSlide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Rising Global RisksSlide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49Slide Number 50Slide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54Slide Number 55Slide Number 56Slide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 60Slide Number 61Slide Number 62Slide Number 63Slide Number 64Slide Number 65Slide Number 66Slide Number 67Slide Number 68Slide Number 69Slide Number 70Slide Number 71Slide Number 73Slide Number 76Slide Number 77Slide Number 81Slide Number 82Social Tipping Point?www.igbp.netwww.stockholmresilience.orgwww.futureearth.infowww.globaia.orgwww.anthropocene.info


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