1

Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: 74456-TZ

RESTRUCTURING PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING

OF

ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

CREDIT

BOARD APPROVAL: MARCH 1, 2007

TO THE

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

March 31, 2013

Education Sector

Country Department AFCE1

Africa Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their

official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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2

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CAS Country Assistance Strategy

CSEE Certificate of Secondary Education Examination

MoEVT Ministry of Education and Vocational Training

NECTA National Examinations Council of Tanzania

OCAG Office of the Controller and Auditor General

PAD Project Appraisal Document

PDO Project Development Objective

SDR Special Drawing Rights

US$ United States Dollar

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop

Country Director: Philippe Dongier

Sector Manager / Director: Sajitha Bashir / Ritva Reinikka

Task Team Leader: Arun R. Joshi

3

TANZANIA

ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

CONTENTS

Page

A. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 4

B. PROJECT STATUS .............................................................................................................. 4

C. PROPOSED CHANGES ...................................................................................................... 6

ANNEX 1: RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................. 9

ANNEX 2: REALLOCATION OF PROCEEDS ...................................................................... 11

ANNEX 3: EXTENSION OF CLOSING DATE ...................................................................... 12

4

TANZANIA

ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

RESTRUCTING PAPER

A. SUMMARY

This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Country Director to introduce four changes

to the Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project (the Project) and any

accompanying amendment to the project legal documents, i.e., (1) to allocate unallocated

amount and reallocate saving across categories to finance on-going activities that are in

need of additional resources; (2) to change target values for three Project Development

Objective (PDO) Indicators; (3) to introduce one new PDO indicator; and (4) to extend

the project closing date by four months. The proposed changes are minor and have been

requested by the Government in order to consolidate and complete its various ongoing

activities in view of meeting the PDO.

B. PROJECT STATUS

1. Background. The Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement (SDR28.2 million,

US$42 million equivalent) was approved by the Board on April 24, 2007, signed on June

25, 2007 and declared effective on January 29, 2008. The original closing date is July 31,

2013.

2. PDO. The PDO is ‘to improve completion in lower secondary education (the first

four years) with successful performance among students.’ The original Project design

included three PDO Indicators and ten1 intermediate outcome indicators to monitor

progress towards the PDO. Overall, the PDO remains valid/ relevant and continues to be

achievable, even though a modest extension of project closing date will be needed to

complete all outstanding activities.

3. Overall, PDO progress has been on track. During the last two years of

implementation, PDO indicators showed increasing divergence with the PDO targets,

prompting the Bank team to downgrade the PDO rating to ‘Moderately Unsatisfactory’

and the Government to carefully review the causes. Key assumptions driving the original

targets have been found to be erroneous.

4. Implementation Progress. The Project has been under implementation since July

1, 2007 and overall implementation progress is Moderately Satisfactory. Most activities

are expected to be completed prior to the project closing date of July 31, 2013. On

Component 1 related to infrastructure, the current progress of school construction is on

track with majority of the schools completed and already fully functional: this includes

the appointment of the heads of schools, teachers, installation of equipment and furniture,

distribution of textbooks. Total enrollment in new schools is currently 6,880. The

1 The seventh intermediate outcome indicator, ‘textbook/pupil ratio’ is now broken into four outcome

indicators by subjects (Mathematics, Physics, English and Kiswahili).

5

remaining schools under construction are between 65% - 95% completed. As reflected in

the disbursement chart, implementation progress of this operation has picked up

significantly in the last two years and has been able to offset the lost time which was

caused by extensive delays during the start of the project.

5. On Component 2, related to quality enhancing interventions, the implementation

of all earmarked activities has been completed except two which are ongoing. These two

activities include the procurement of remaining textbooks, which is currently at contract

signing stage (the delivery may requires extra two months beyond closing date); and the

training of the last cohort of English language, science and mathematics teachers, which

is also expected to be completed four months beyond the project closing date.

6. Currently about 80% of project implementation timeline has elapsed, while 77%

of the US$42 million equivalent credit has been disbursed. According to the latest figures

from the Ministry of Education and Vocational Training (MoEVT), US$31.08 million of

the credit has been fully paid and by December 31, 2012, after concluding contract for

remaining textbooks, disbursement and commitments is expected to reach 95% of the

credit.

7. Outcome indicators. Two out of the three original PDO Indicators (the number

of Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) takers and passers) show

reasonably good progress, driven particularly by good performance amongst females, but

have not achieved the projected targets of the PDO indicators. As a result the lower

secondary completion rate improved from 27 percent in 2007 to 42 percent in 2011.

Zanzibar's secondary completion rate is now similar to other Sub-Saharan African

countries (very close, for example, to Ethiopia's secondary completion rate of 43

percent), while it was much lower before the project was implemented. However, the

third PDO indicator (the number of CSEE passers with Division III+) is off-track: the

number of students passing with Division III+ in fact declined over time. The

Government is investigating this deterioration in exam results at the upper end of the

performance scale since 2009, which has recently also been observed in mainland

Tanzania.

8. Institutional Arrangements. The Project is coordinated by the Director of

Secondary Education, with technical and operational support provided by her staff

comprising the Project Management Team. The project activities continue to be

implemented as planned by agencies of the MoEVT, notably the Zanzibar Institute of

Education (for the curriculum, textbooks, and girls' science camps), the Office of the

Commissioner of Education (for life skills training), the Department of Teacher

Education, and the Office of the Chief Inspector of Schools (for school leaders training).

Project procurement, financial management, and monitoring and evaluation are carried

out by responsible units of the MoEVT.

9. Safeguards. There are no changes to the environmental and social safeguards

aspects of the Project. The proposed restructuring of the Project does not require a

revised safeguards management plan, monitoring and reporting requirement.

6

10. Financial Management. The overall project financial management rating is

‘Satisfactory’. The financial management risk rating assigned to the project remains

‘Moderate’.

11. Audit. The project audit report for Fiscal Year Ending June 2012 was submitted

to the World Bank six weeks after the deadline. The CAG issued ‘Unqualified’ (clean)

opinion on the financial statement of the project. Currently, the audit is done by the

Office of the Controller and Auditor General (OCAG). The project was required to

implement audit recommendations including refund of ineligible expenditure of TZS.

60,196,300. The Government has taken immediate action in addressing these issues, and

we are informed that TZS 30,000,000 has already been refunded in project account and

the Government has committed to pay the remaining amount by March 31, 2013.

12. Procurement and Work plan. A revised procurement and work plan based on

proposed changes have already been submitted by the Government and is found to be

satisfactory. Overall, the project procurement processes is rated ‘Satisfactory’.

C. PROPOSED CHANGES

13. The proposed modifications for this project restructuring are: (1) to allocate

unallocated amount and reallocate savings across categories to finance critical activities

that are in need of additional resources; (2) to change PDO indicators target values; (3) to

add a new PDO indicator; and (4) to extend the project closing date by four months. The

proposed changes will not affect the formulation of the PDO. They will help to

consolidate and strengthen various on-going activities across components and categories,

complete all planned activities across components and categories before closing, and

meet the PDO as measured by related outcome indicators.

14. Reallocations. Due to exchange rate gains (SDR vs. US$), the overall project

allocation has increased from initially US$42 million to now US$43.4 million, as per

Client Connection of January 15, 2013. The proposed reallocation will take into account

this increase as well as allocations between categories. (Details see Annex 2, below).

15. Change in PDO Target Values. A key assumption made during project

preparation had created a situation where PDO targets were unrealistically high. Initially,

it had been assumed, given the Government's anticipated decision at the time to abolish

Form II exams that 100% of students in Form II would transit into Form III. As a result,

the targets of (i) students taking the CSEE exams (at the end of Form IV), (ii) passing the

CSEE exams, and (iii) passing them with Div. I – III, as reflected by the Project

Appraisal Document (PAD) indicator targets, were pitched quite high. Soon after the start

of project implementation though, the Government decided not to abolish Form II exams

and, instead continue using it as a process to assess student learning. In this situation, the

Form II to Form III transition rates, with the bottleneck of Form II exams not being

removed, have been less than 60% (but rising slowly), which impacted on all indicator

targets related to the end of lower secondary education. Decreased, more realistic target

values will show better progress rates. The World Bank team, upon suggestion of the

Government, is proposing to revise these targets, in order to allow for an upgrading of the

PDO rating to ‘Moderately Satisfactory’, once formally approved. Proposed changes of

7

new PDO target values are summarized in Table 2 below. Details of revised projection

are summarized in Supplemental Table of Revised Projection below.

Table 2: Changes of PDO Target Values (End Year)

PDO Indicators Original Revised

1) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by gender, taking the

Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) given at

the end of lower secondary education.

19,680 13,962

2) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by gender, passing the

Examination (CSEE) at the end of lower secondary education.

17,908 12,705

3) Number of pupils, disaggregated by gender, passing the

Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) in Div. III

or better.

3,739 2,653

17. New PDO Indicator. The Government team also suggests adding a new PDO

Indicator, to measure lower secondary completion rates, i.e., “The percentage of

Certificate of Secondary Education Exam (CSEE) takers divided by the population aged

17 years” (the official graduation age for Form IV).One advantage of this new indicator

is that it will allow comparing completion rates over time and with other countries. See

Annex 1 for baseline, actual, and target figures.

18. Extension of Project Closing Date by four months, from July 31, 2013 to

November 30, 2013 (see Annex 3, below). This will allow adequate time to complete (i)

procurement processes of remaining textbook and instructional materials for grade 1-4

and (ii) teachers training programs.

Supplemental Table of Revised Projection

8

9

ANNEX 1: Results Framework and Monitoring

TANZANIA: ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT Project Development Objective (PDO): To improve completion of lower secondary education with successful performance among students.

PDO Level Results Indicators

Co

re D=Dropped

C=Continue

N= New

R=Revised

Unit of

Measure

Baseline2

Target and Actual Values3

Frequency Data Source/

Methodology

Responsibility

for Data

Collection 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by

gender, taking the Certificate of

Secondary Education Examination

(CSEE) given at the end of lower

secondary education.

R Number T: 7,250

F: 3,708 M: 3,542

T: 8,446

F: 4,301 M: 4,145

(T: 7,876)

(F: 3,938) (M: 3,938)

T: 8,725

F: 4,411 M: 4,314

(T: 8,684)

(F: 4,342) (M: 4,342)

T: 17,030

F: 9,372 M: 7,658

(T: 20,917)

(F: 10,458) (M: 10,458)

T: 11,877

F: 6,386 M: 5,491

(T: 13,809)

(F: 6,905) (M: 6,905)

T: n/a

F: n/a M: n/a

(T: 13,962)

(F: 6,981) (M: 6,981)

Annual CSEE NECTA

2) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by

gender, passing the CSEE at the end of

lower secondary education.

R Number T: 6,136

F: 3,186 M: 2,950

T: 6,533

F: 3,289

M: 3,244

(T: 7,167)

(F: 3,538) (M: 3,538)

T: 7,066

F: 3,584

M: 3,482

(T: 7,902)

(F: 3,951) (M: 3,951)

T: 12,202

F: 6,695

M: 5,507

(T: 19,034)

(F: 9,517) (M: 9,517)

T: 9,020

F: 4,018

M: 5,002

(T: 12,566)

(F: 6,283) (M: 6,283)

T: n/a

F: n/a

M: n/a

(T: 12,705)

(F: 6,352) (M: 6,352)

Annual CSEE NECTA

3) Number of pupils, disaggregated by

gender, passing the CSEE in Div. III or

better

R Number T:1,402

F: 578

M: 824

T: 1,274

F: 507

M: 767 (T: 1,496)

(F: 648)

(M: 848)

T: 1,408

F: 624

M: 784 (T: 1,650)

(F: 742)

(M: 907)

T: 1,598

F: 700

M: 898 (T: 3,974)

(F: 1,855)

(M: 2,120)

T: 939

F: 460

M: 479 (T: 2,624)

(F: 1,268)

(M: 1,356)

T: n/a

F: n/a

M: n/a (T: 2,653)

(F: 1,326)

(M: 1,326)

Annual CSEE NECTA

4) Lower secondary completion rate:

Number of pupils taking the CSEE /

population aged 17 years (new)

N

Percent

age

T: 27%

F: 28%

M: 26%

T: 31%

F: 32%

M: 30% (T: 29)

(F: 29)

(M: 28)

T: 32%

F: 32%

M: 31% (T: 31)

(F: 32)

(M: 31)

T: 61%

F: 67%

M: 54% (T: 75)

(F: 75)

(M: 74)

T: 42%

F: 45%

M: 39% (T: 49)

(F: 49)

(M: 49)

T: n/a

F: n/a

M: n/a (T: 49)

(F: 49)

(M: 49)

Annual CSEE/OCGS NECTA

Intermediate Results Indicators

1) Percentage of teachers teaching at

secondary level who are qualified to

teach at the secondary level

C Percent

age 59%

n/a (n/a)

n/a (n/a)

n/a (n/a)

70% (n/a)

79% (65%)

Annual School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

2) Percentage of teachers of

mathematics who are qualified to teach

secondary school mathematics

C Percent

age 28%

n/a

(n/a) n/a

(n/a) n/a

(n/a) 48%

(n/a)

47%

(65%) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

3) Percentage of secondary biology

teachers qualified to teach secondary

school biology

C Percent

age 38%

n/a

(n/a) n/a

(n/a) n/a

(n/a) 55%

(n/a)

59%

(65%) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

4) Percentage of secondary chemistry

teachers qualified to teach secondary

school chemistry

C Percent

age 43%

n/a

(n/a) n/a

(n/a) n/a

(n/a) 53%

(n/a)

62%

(65%) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

2 Baseline data for PDO Indicators refer to Year 2007, and baseline data for Intermediate Results Indicators refer to Year 2006 because 2007 data are not available for

Intermediate Results Indicators. 3 The Project team considers 2012 as project end year. Since project implementation goes up to January 2013, one could have used 2013 as ‘end of project’ year. However, data

relating to 2013 will only become available in 2014 and this would have significantly delayed project evaluation.

10

5) Percentage of secondary physics

teachers qualified to teach secondary

school physics

C Percent

age 39%

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

55%

(n/a)

57%

(65%) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

6) Pupil/Classroom ratio in secondary

education

C Number 83

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

65

(n/a)

73

(92) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

7) Textbook/pupil ratio - Mathematics

(Form IV)

C Number n/a

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

1.0

(n/a)

n/a

(1.0) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

8) Textbook/pupil ratio - Physics (Form

IV)

C Number n/a

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

0.8

(n/a)

n/a

(1.0) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

9) Textbook/pupil ratio - English (Form

IV)

C Number n/a

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

0.9

(n/a)

n/a

(1.0) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

10) Textbook/pupil ratio - Kiswahili

(Form IV)

C Number n/a

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

n/a

(n/a)

0.1

(n/a)

n/a

(1.0) Annual

School

questionnaire

Statistics

Section, MoE

11

ANNEX 2: Reallocation of Proceeds

TANZANIA – ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCAION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

P102262

CREDIT

Restructuring Paper

1. Proceeds for Tanzania Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project (Credit No

42930, P102262) will be reallocated as follow:

Category of Expenditure Allocation % of Financing

Current Revised Current Revised Current Revise

(1) Works under Part 1 of

the Project

(1) Works under Part 1 of

the Project

26,808,511 28,209,674 100 100

(2) Goods: (a) for Parts 1

and 2 (1) of the Project

(2) Goods: (a) for Parts 1

and 2 (1) of the Project

1,589,149 1,470,551.05 100 100

(2) Goods: (b) for Part 2

(2) of the Project

(2) Goods: (b) for Part 2

(2) of the Project

8,389,574 8,363,715.95 100 100

(3) Consultants’ services (3) Consultants’ services 1,831,915 2,337,594.5 100 100

(4) Operating Costs (4) Operating Costs 1,385,106 935,008.5 100 100

(5) Unallocated (5) Unallocated 506,383 0 100 100

(6) Training for Part 2 of

the Project

(6) Training for Part 2 of

the Project

1,489,362 2,087,486 100 100

Total Total 42,000,000 43,404,030 100 100

2. The Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project has been under

implementation since July 1, 2007 and overall implementation progress is moderately

satisfactory. The Project's original closing date is June 30, 2013. Currently about 80% of

project implementation time has elapsed and some 77% of the US$42 million equivalent

has been disbursed. Implementations of all remaining activities are ongoing as planned.

3. The proposed reallocation is necessary to achieve the PDO, ‘to improve

completion of lower secondary education with successful performance among students.’

Some savings have occurred because operating expenses and procurement of goods have

been provided at lower prices than originally estimated prices and exchange rate gain has

realized additional resources. The Government requested to reallocate the savings to

different activities across components and categories, where greater needs than originally

planned have been assessed. Requested reallocations of savings are as above table. The

total amount of credit has increased from initially US$42 million to now US$43.4

million, as per the Client Connection as at January 15, 2013, due to exchange rate gains

(SDR vs US$).

12

ANNEX 3:

Extension of Closing Date

TANZANIA – ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCAION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

P102262

CREDIT

Restructuring Paper

1. The Closing Date for Tanzania, Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project

(Credit No. 42930, P102262), will be extended by four months from July 31, 2013 to

November 30, 2013.

2. The Project Development Objective (PDO) of the Project is ‘To improve

completion of lower secondary education with successful performance among students.’

The Project has the following two components: 1) Increase Enrolment and Improve

Quality in Secondary Education through Provision of Infrastructure; and 2) Improve

Quality of Education through Teacher Training, Curriculum Reform, and Provision of

Learning Materials.

3. The Project (US$42 million equivalent) was approved by the Board on April 24,

2007, signed on June 25, 2007, and declared effective on January 29, 2008. The original

closing date is July 31, 2013.

4. The Project has been under implementation since July 1, 2007 and overall

implementation progress is Moderately Satisfactory. The project objectives continue to

be achievable, and most activities are expected to be completed prior to the project

closing date of July 31, 2013.

5. However, following the last Implementation Support Mission, the Government

and the World Bank team believe that, while the action plan shows completion of most

activities by project closing date, there is possibility of small slippages in procurement

timelines (especially procurement of textbooks and completion of training programs for

teachers). As a result, the Government will be requesting an extension of four months

beyond the current closing date. The measure is being proposed to ensure the quality of

output from the training programs is maintained.

6. An Action Plan to complete the Project has already been submitted by the

Government and is found to be satisfactory.

7. This will be the first extension of the Project.