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Working Group on Nowcasting Research

Outline–What is Nowcasting?–WGNR Mandate–WGNR Activities

Slobodan Nickovic, Tom Keenan, Steve Goodman, Alan Seed, Thomas Haiden, Jenny Sun, Ted Nakazawa, Marianne Koenig, Jian Jie Wang, Augusto Pereira, Peter

Li, Paul Joe and Jim Wilson

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Nowcasting definition – description of the current state of the weather in detail and the prediction of changes in a few hours

WHAT IS NOWCASTINGOriginally defined by Browning for the

1st Nowcasting Conference in 1981 as:

0-6 hr forecasting by any method

spatial scale of no more than a few kilometers (1-3 km) with frequent updates (5-10 min)

Heavy emphasis on observations

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It is much more than that!

Nowcasts are precise in weather element, time and space!

“Call to Action!” Extreme events!

Highly application or user dependent!

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Concerts

Transportation

Sporting events Aviation

Construction

Only on the nowcasting time and space scale is

there sufficient forecast skill that people will take actions to save life, property, and human

inconvenience .

WHY NOWCASTING?

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Convective weather are traditional operational application of nowcasting.

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Aviation deicing application needs precipitation type, intensity to resolution of minutes and kilometers.

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The nature of the turbulence is critical!

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Ski Jump experiences ~7-8 min fluctuations of the up/down slope wind

2 hour of 1 second

data

Upslope

Transition from

drainage to upslope

Drainage

Bottom TopGraph courtesy of Andrew Teakles

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Promote Nowcasting Among WMO Members

Advance and Understanding the Science

Technology Transfer Capacity Build

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• Forecast Demonstration Projects

• Sydney 2000, Beijing 2008

• Research Development Projects

• Beijing 2008, SNOW-V10

• Sochi 2014, Rio 2016

• Developing Country Forecast Demonstration Project

• 1:1, Mentoring, Legacy of Research Capacity

• Lake Victoria, SE Asia

• Training

• S2K, Brasilia, South Africa, Micronesia

• B08, V10

• Workshops

• Heuristic Nowcasting, NWP for Nowcasting

• Observations for Nowcasting

• Symposia

• WSN05, WSN09, WSN12

•Verification•Societal Impacts•Firm Target development

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Can a standard thermometer be used for nowcasting?

HMP45CStandard Network

Thermometer

Inversion is ~here. HMP45C sees it

higher on ascent and lower on descent

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Dale Barker, Stephane Belair, Volker Wulfmeyer; Slobodan Nickovic (WMO), Jeanette Onvlee, Mathias Rotach, Jimy Dudhia, Peter Steinle, Hui Yu, Tiziana

Paccagnella, Kazuo Saito

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14NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

Activities WG-MWFR

Help set up/involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, FROST14, …)

Promote mesoscale research cooperation / proposals on: Mesoscale modelling aspects: e.g. WGNE grey zone project Mesoscale DA experimentation: e.g. HYMEX data assimilation

and predictability testbed LAM EPS experimentation Urban meteorology: e.g. TOMACS campaign Verification: e.g. JWGFVR ICP2 project

Organize dedicated workshops on specific topics

Other activities on: consider/promote worldwide standards for (routine) mesoscale

model quality assessment inventory of available mesoscale training material/activities, gaps

therein

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15NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

Ongoing and possible future RDP/FDP’s

Ongoing: COPS: convective orographic precipitation study (nearly completed,

final workshop spring 2012) FROST-14: high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic

forecasting and nowcasting in support of Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics

Participation in HYMEX TTM4: data assimilation and predictability

Possible future RDP’s: TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Study: attempt to

engage international community in an RDP Tropical cyclone modelling

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The Olympic Sochi Testbed The Olympic Sochi Testbed (FROST-2014)(FROST-2014)

Main objectives:

Improve and exploit:

• Nowcasting techniques

• High-resolution analyses and forecasts for complex terrain/winter conditions

• Regional and convection-permitting EPSImprove understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region;

Deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers and quantify benefits of forecast improvement

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TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study: high density observation/modelling campaign over Tokyo

ひょう あられ

氷晶

Surface rain gauge

Polarmetric C band Doppler radar （ MR

I ）

2D scanX band radar

Moist air MW radiometer

Lightning Detection

Doppler Lidar

3D scanX band radar

降水コア雷

約 10km

sondes

GPS receiver

Collaboration with MILT, NIED, NICT, OU, ..

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/tmp/PreviewPasteboardItems/110911_TTM4a_Testbed_Wulfmeyer_Summary (dragged).pdf

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20NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

Why this workshop?

• Mesoscale models moving into the nowcasting range:• Rapid update cycling• Assimilation of relevant spatially and temporally dense

observations which are traditionally important to nowcasting (radar!)

• High-resolution modelling• Convection-permitting ensembles under development Option for ensemble nowcasting?

• … but demands from nowcasting may be different from short-range forecasting

• To what extent is mesoscale NWP presently capable of meeting the needs of nowcasting, either directly or indirectly?

• Get nowcasting and mesoscale NWP communities together to define the way forward (set up research agenda)

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21NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

Expected outcome:

Overview of state-of-the-art of present use of mesoscale NWP in support of nowcasting, directly and indirectly

Identify the requirements of nowcasting on mesoscale NWP

Inventory of possible ways forward to enhance the capability of mesoscale NWP to support nowcasting, and associated research

Description of the main outcomes in a BAMS paper?

Proposals for joint research activities to further the field?

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Workshop Expectations

Proposals to advance the science of NWP for Nowcasting

Hi resolution (radar) data assimilation RDP/FDP observationsRadar data assimilation RDP