Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6

WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013 1

Working Group on Nowcasting Research

Annual Report to JSC6

20130718

Paul Joe


Outline

• Membership

• JSC5 Action Items

• Projects – Near Past, Current and Future

• Other Activities

• Planned Meetings


Approval/Advice from JSC

1. Membership Scheduling?

2. Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7)

3. WGNR Meeting – EA 2014?

4. WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare?

5. WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper?

6. Merging?


Tom Keenan Steve Goodman


•Startup in 2003•Staggered membership began in 2011 •Now organized to change every 4 years*•Chair in year preceding year•2 term rule*


JSC5 Action Items

• 36 – CIMO Link

• 38 – Lake Victoria

• 39 – Contribute to WIGOS


36 CIMO Link

• “Link should be established with CIMO to look into defining a standard for operational instrumentation.”

• Action to: Chairs of JWGFVR, WGNR, CAS President

• DONE!• JWGFVR is a member of the Solid Precipitation

Inter-comparison Experiment International Organizing Committee of CIMO (June 2013)

• Defer to JWGFR report


38 – Lake Victoria

• “Executive Council requested WWRP to investigate a Lake Victoria Basin Understanding project. UKMO noted gap in lack of evaluation process for local forecasts in Lake Victoria region, JSC asked to consider establishing a field RDP.”

• On-going• Discussed under “future project 4.7”


39 - Contribute to WIGOS

• JSC recommended provision of quantified WWRP requirements as input to WIGOS.

• Provided input to CBS/SBO Weather Radar Data Exchange Initiative - DONE

• Plan is to organize various FDP science and monitoring leads to draft “user requirements table” for nowcasting data requirements for fine scale observation and prediction– On-going/see next slide


GCOS Data Requirements Table

Cycle Time

Spatial Resolution


Projects

• SNOW-V10

• NWP for Nowcasting

• FROST14

• INCA-CE

• TOMACS

• Korea 2018

• Lake Victoria Project


SNOW-V10

3 journal papers published

17 journal papers accepted for publication

40+ Conference papers

More to come…


SNOW-V10 FROST-14Capacity Building Oct 2012

Sochi Forecaster Training


Weather Olympians

2014 1980 2000 2014


FROST-2014:• To improve and exploit:– high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological conditions in winter complex terrain environment;

– regional meso-scale ensemble forecast products in winter complex terrain environment;

– nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (wind, visibility, precipitation type and intensity etc.) in complex terrain.

• To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region;

• To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers.

• To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts)

• To develop a comprehensive information resource of alpine winter weather observations;


Today’s network of meteorological stations in the region of Sochi


Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 on Akhun mountain in Sochi was launched in September 2012

• Max reflectivity; • wind&refl 2km-cappy; • echo tops;• 1-hour precipitation

Altitude – 646 m Location: 43о32’52,6״ N, 39о51 ״05,0׳ E.

Raw Turkish data are expected to be

available


+ 4 times/day upper air sounding in Sochi

Mobile Remote Sensing

MRR Radiometer Wind Profiler

Radiometer MRR

Vertical Profile of Doppler Spectra


3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)

2.5 km 1.0 km 250m

Model Elevation – Jason Milbrandt25 Jan 2013

Precipitation Cascading Domain

Wind Same domain


3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)

250 m

X-C

S-JAlpine


Ensemble project component

Current state: COSMO-S14-EPS, GLAMEPS, NOAA-7km EPS, COSMO-RU2-EPS

Expected: HARMON-EPS, Aladin LAEF / AROME-1km, KMA’s downscaling of probabilistic forecasts.Poor man’s ensemble of deterministic high-resolution models


INCA-CE

See Ingo Meirold-Mautner report. Agenda item 4.3..


TOMACS Proposal


Use of Dense Observations

11+ radars


Fine Scale Data Assimilation

WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013 26Radars Wind Profiler AWS Met. Sensors of

IPS Surface detectors

PyeongChang Korea 2018


Met. Supports : Specialized Support System

Special Observation Research (snow process and physics) Forecasting system development

Sonde Special OBS Snow process and physics Precipitation type Forecast


Research on the physical processes over the rugged terrain and High Mountain

Understanding the specific physical processes over the mountainous area through the special observation


Forecast system specialized on mountain :

Radiation over slope

SFC TEMP at sunrise(SH-ORG)

Freezing level Forecast


Supporting system for each venues



Lake Victoria Project Proposal

1. The Nowcast System2. The SWFDP3. The Field Project4. Capacity Building

Four Components

“WMO Executive Council (EC)

recommended that a World Weather

Research Programme (WWRP) project

be considered for the Lake Victoria

Watershed that would include a test-bed

for field campaigns to collect data for

research to understand the dynamics

over the lake in order to reduce

disaster from water spouts, waves, and

wind gusts that affect both lake transport

and fishermen who rely on the lake for

their livelihoods. The EC further noted

the potential linkages with the SWFDP

for Eastern Africa."

EC 2010


Lake Victoria(Item 4.7)


The Field Project• Meteorological Understanding• Scientific Validation• Statistical Verification

Red Stars – surveillance radar

White Stars – hi res radar, dual-doppler

Blue Star 6 – IOS

Blue Star 4 – Upper Air Station

Yellow – Met Stns


Other ActivitiesPlanned Meetings


NWP for Nowcasting

1. Predictability of Precipitation Systems

2. Mesoscale Networks

3. Data Assimilation and Rapid Update


WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting Research Rio di Janiero, Aug 2012

166 participants from 21 countries

+ 2 hours of lectures each day

Radar Renewal in SA

Nowcasting Impetus

La Plata

Rio 2016

Port Ops


Argentina Training (T-NOTE)• Initiated by radar

renewal, radar networks, nowcasting needs, La Plata Basin

• Initiated by Celeste Saulo, Paola Salio, Claudio Campetella, WSN12

• Lead trainer is Rita Roberts of NCAR

• 5-16 August 2013 in Buenos Aires TRMM Lightning Flash #/min

TRMM Height of 40 dBZ Echo

http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/T-NOTE/home.html

http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/T-NOTE/program.html

http://pampero.cima.fcen.uba.ar/tnote/index.php

http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/T-NOTE/information.html

http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/T-NOTE/logistic.html


The Workshop Agenda


EUMETNET – NowcastingNew initiative began 1 Jan 2013


Membership(23 Countries)


Milestones

• Establishment of a group of nowcasting experts under the EUMETNET governance and their motivation for engagement in the nowcasting related planning within EUMETNET

• Provision of a scientific and technical overview of the applied nowcasting systems in Europe including quality assessment and development of verification standards for nowcasting (define parameters to verify, methods and observations to use for verification)

• Identification of (scientific or technical) elements in the presently existing nowcasting systems, which are worthwhile for exchange between members and the organization of the exchange process

• Assessment and interpretation of observation and NWP requirements for improved nowcasting and their communication with the relevant communities

• Preparation of the Nowcasting Activity proposal for the second phase (2014-2017)

Nowcasting Activity

EUMETNET

24.04.2013


Deliverables

Deadline Deliverables01.03.2013 Nomination of representative experts of members;

set up Working Area (WA) teams, Expert Team, Observers;ToR of ET, WA teams and WA leaders

23.-24.04.2013(orig. 15.06.2013)

1. Face-to-face Meeting of ET (in the frame of INCA-CE Progress Meeting), WA working plan

15.11.2013 ET meeting (possibly via teleconference), WA progress report

01.05.2014 Nowcasting conference, WA final report

01.06.2014 Different reports and assessments

30.06.2014 Proposal for the second phase to be submitted to EUMETNET

Nowcasting Activity

EUMETNET

24.04.2013


Re-Organization

JONAS + WGNR

WGNR + WGMWFR

43

JONAS = WGNR + PWS

• Action item from JSC4• Discussion initiated with PWS

– Open discussion, various options discussed– Planned to meet this week -> TBD

CBS

GDPFS (SWFDP)

PWS (SWFDP, WENS)

WGNR/WWRP

-FDP’s/RDP’s

-Advance

-Promote

-Capacity BuildJWGVFR?

SERA?

Obs Dept?

Technology Transfer Activities

•Guide to Nowcasting

•Promote

•Capacity Building

•Training Workshop


WGNR + WGMWFR

WWW CBS CIMO CAS

WWRP

GDPFS

PWS

WGNR WGMWFR HIW

WGNE DAOS

JONAS

•Initiated by WWRP

•Telecon, WGMWFR in June 2013

•No discussion within WGNR


Brainstorm at WGMWFR

Hi-Res NWP use

Fine Scale DA analysis

Observations DQ

Hi-Res NWP dev

Fine Scale DA dev

Observations DQ

•Parameterization•Numerics•Gray Zone•Typhoon LAM•Land Surface Data Sets•Optimal Use of existing networks

•Understanding•Systems, Heuristics•Forecaster Interaction•Promotion•Capacity Building•New Technologies•Maturity, skill of NWP for severe weather (core)

Impact

•Co-chair, membership at 20?

•Too broad? 20 is unwieldy, difficult to cover expectations if much less?

•Severe Weather?

Brief Summary:

No one at WGMWFR adverse to re-organization

Address gaps?

Clarity on rationale? Since many options.

Gaps:

Forecast Systems

Observations

Benefits:

Automation -> NWP

Probabilistic/Ensemble Nowcasting

Focus on 2-12 gap

Mutli-parameter


Early Activities

• Guide to Nowcasting (P. Li, HKO)• Aviation Nowcasting Initiative (P. Li, HKO)

– CAEM developing strategic plan for aviation– SESAR in Europe– NEXTGEN in U.S.

• Brazil Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting– Presented in WGNR Rio meeting– At USP, extended training workshops (2-6 weeks);

annual– Request sustainability plan


Planned Meetings

• Lake Victoria Planning Meetings? • WGNR – East Africa 2014?• EUMETNET Nowcasting 11/2013 or Spring 2014?• TOMACS Kickoff – Dec 2013• FROST 14 Science – Spring 2014• WWOSC – Montreal, July 2014• WSN 15 or 16?

– Hong Kong, Capetown, Sydney, Shanghai– EUMENET Nowcasting Meeting ~May 2014

• Urban Nowcasting Workshop 2015/16?– TOMACS, SREP, Pan Am2015– With WSN?

PanAm15 Wx, AQ, HI


Approval/Advice from JSC

1. Membership Scheduling?

2. Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7)

3. WGNR Meeting – EA 2014?

4. WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare?

5. WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper expected?

6. Merging?


Thank You

Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6

Documents

Transcript of Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6