Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report

Paul Joe

WWRP JSC 21-24 Feb 2011 Geneva

Outline

• CAS XV/Gaps• Committee• Symposia• Advancing the Science - FDP/RDP’s• Capacity Building • Related Projects• Specialty Meetings• New Initiatives

– Lake Victoria– South East Asia– INCA – CE– Regional Training Center for Nowcasting (Brazil)

Gaps and CAS XV Decisions• “Advise, promote, advance, publish, convene, capacity build”• Advancing the Science

– Expanding the accuracy, precision, predictability/blending, heuristic, data assimilation and high resolution models

– Applications: Convective weather/initiation, multi-element, winter, complex terrain, hydrology, aviation

– Observational science, measurement errors for nowcasting (in situ, remote sensing – radar QC and QPE),

– Understanding (conceptual models; complex terrain, etc) • Hydrology Links - MAP-D Phase (coupling) and INCA-CE FDP?• Integrated Nowcasting: Satellite rainfall and nowcasting,

lightning nowcasting (particularly related to developing countries),

• Forecast systems: decision making and system design in the nowcast process; links to PWS and operations, system design, seamless (links to aviation, hydrology, etc)

• OPERA Radar Data Exchange (Nowcasting Requirements)• Technology and knowledge demonstration

Committee Membership

Ttom Keenan Steve Goodman Thomas Haiden Ted Nakazawa Augusto Pereira Paul Joe

Slobodan Nickovic Alan Seed Jenny Sun Marianne Koenig Jian Jie Wang Peter Li Jim Wilson(a)

Convene Nowcasting Symposia

WSN09 Environment Canada, Whistler, BC, George Isaac/Paul Joe

WSN05 Toulouse, France, Meteo-France, Stephane Senesi

WSN12 Rio de Janiero, INPE/USP, Augusto Pereira 20-24 August 2012

QPE/QPF 3, Nanjing, China, Oct 2010, Brown/Lu

Promote, Advance, Capacity Build FDP / RDP’s Initiatives

Sydney 2000 1999-2002

MAP D2005-2008

Beijing 20082005-2009

To demonstrate the capability of modern forecast systems and to quantify the associated benefits in the delivery of very short term weather forecasts

Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., an end-to-end forecasting system

Implement advanced high impact weather and precipitation nowcast systems providing an enhance weather service for B08 with demonstration of impact

Capacity Building Workshop - early 2012

Initiative to drive journal publications.

2010 Nowcasting InitiativesShanghai World EXPO 2010Nowcasting Service Demonstration

Project (WENS) 2008-2011

In the context of the multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS), to demonstrate how nowcasting applications can enhance short-range forecasts of high-impact weather using the opportunity afforded by the World EXPO 2010

SNOW-V10RDP 2009-2011

Focus is to improve our ability to produce short term or Nowcasts (within 6h) of high impact winter weather over complex terrain in association with the Vancouver 2010

Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games.

WENS Capacity Building Nov 2011

SNOW-V10 Final Seminar 2012?

Sochi2014 RDP/FDP ?

Warm start reduces the cross-over point in blended systems!

Benjamin et al, WSN09

B08: Too low to be useful for “call to action” decisions

Predictability is a function of scale!

Alan Seed

Capacity Building WorkshopsSydney 2000Australia

Brazilia, Brazil 2003

Pretoria, 2005South African Weather Service

Palm Cove, 2006Asia-Pacific Region

Other Related Projects• Joint Nowcasting,

Applications and Service (JONAS)– CBS/PWS– WWRP co-chair– Test Beds– Service

• Commission of Instruments, Methods and Observations– Radar Quality Control and

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Inter-comparison Project

– 14-15 April 2011, Exeter– RQQI pronounced Rickey

Non-QC QC

WENS

Perfect Radar

Forecast SystemsScience, Process, Production and Service

• Forecasting Systems and End User Requirements-Definition of outputs and functionality–     nowcasting–     short-medium term–     hydrology–     advanced user needs and capacity building;

• Requirements for Forecast Process and Decision Support for Forecasts and warnings–     Using Guidance and Observations, NWP, EPS Use, MOS Direct Model output–     Conceptual models –     Integration of Decision support in meteorological Process–     Visualisation –     Verification–     Training with emphasis on process use of applications and systems

• Man Machine Mix Issues- –     Optimising Role of human in forecast process and potential of NWP/Automation  

• Approaches to Forecast System development–     (manual, matrix, object grid etc)–     digital forecast databases, user interaction etc

• Forecast Sub-Systems and Applications –     Automatic Text generation–     Graphical product–     Dissemination and communication techniques

• Potential contributors to the meeting should be decided upon by CAS and CBS.

•In principle agreement was obtained at the 8th WWRP SSC (2005) to conduct a technical forum of invited experts to facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting Systems.

•Little progress, priority and funding•How to progress this?

JONAS MissionCBS/PWS + WWRP

Increase the capacity of NMHS’s to deliver reliable nowcasts to enable informed decision-making in mitigating the effects of high impact weather and weather-related disasters.

Links for legacy of WGNR

Specialty MeetingsClosing the Gap /Advancing the Science

• Mesoscale-Nowcasting Working Group Specialty Meeting– Meeting approved– Boulder, Colorado– Dates 2011 TBD– Jenny Sun and Dale Barker– High Resolution, Spin up, Parameterizations, Data Assimilation

• 2nd Heuristic Nowcasting– Meeting approved by WGNR– Montreal, Canada– Dates TBD 2012– Alan Seed and Isztar Zawadzki– Probabilistic/Ensemble Nowcasting– Blending– Phase and Intensity

Lake Victoria Project• Executive Council approves recomendation to develop

research project– Basin dynamics– Generation of HIW– How to save lives

• Dr. Samwei Marigi/Dr. Dave Parsons– Fisherman have no radios, dissemination an major issue -> cell

phones– Need for Conceptual Model– Data Sparse

• Option 1:– SERVIR

• Option 2– Radar deployment to demonstrate benefits (forecast skill and

user benefits)• Related Projects

– Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in implementation phase

– Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) Pilot– Many more… (project overload)

• Radar status unclear (Uganda, Tazania)• Severe weather Service Gaps

– Knowledge– Observation– Understanding (Nocturnal thunderstorms– Technology (Lake surface temperature; CASA, OTG)

• Piggy back on SWFDP (later than sooner)• JONAS or WWRP (WGNR, WGMW, SERA) to fill

understanding gap first• Expert Team Visit required

Fisherman

-Deaths (5000 deaths/yr)

-Warning Service?

Lake Victoria Events

• In May 1996, a passenger ferry M.V. Bukoba capsized while on its way to Mwanza in Tanzania killing around 800 people

• MV Kabelega sunk on 8th May 2005 and though no life was lost, consumer produce in the tune of 800 tons was lost.

• Grounding of M.V. Thor at Ghana island on 24th March 2006 loaded with 300,000 litres of petroleum products

• Capsizement and sinking of M. V. Nyamageni on 21st April 2006

• In 22nd July 2010.Passenger boat capsized on Ugandan side of the lake and 50 people are feared dead. Survivors tale of strong waves that hit the vessel, shattering it into pieces.

• 200,000 fisherman and 5000 deaths per year

Samwei Marigi

Lightning due to thunderstorms in weak forcing situations (Lake Breeze)

Nocturnal

Daytime

Albrecht, Goodman

Goodman

Objective:

Utilise mobile phone technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards.

Mobile Weather Alert Project

Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technologyTom Butcher

Key Outcomes

(1) Integrated

Observations

(2) Severe Weather

Forecasting

(3) Communication

via mobile phone

(4) Stakeholder Engagement

(5) Socio-economic benefits analysis

• Drawing upon Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and other initiatives, clearly defined processes for the delivery of pilot warnings and forecasts established and implemented.

Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

Q: Any existing “call to action” warning service?

Q: Knowledge of localize severe weather? Technology? Radar?

Need to assess capabilities, service, knowledge, modes of collaboration!

Tom Butcher

Discussion• WGNR providing support to the MWA

to demonstrate how/which satellite products could be used (already EUMETSAT training done)

• Need to assess situation on options (Sat-Lightning demonstration; Understanding field/forecast project).

• Piggyback and extend on SWFDP and MWA projects; WWRP join next science/planning meeting?

• Note – many projects in the area!

Need feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response

CASA:Off The GridRadar (UPR)“solar”Low CostLow infrastructureLow Maintenance ???

Sandra Cruz-Pol, UPR

South East Asia• Contact by staff member of VHMS (HP Lam) to

conduct a FDP in Vietnam• Weather Radar Modernization• Email/Phone discussions• Finnish Met Institute is providing aid to Vietnam• SWFDP in formulation stage

– NWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (0-12)– MWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (6-12)

• Many unknowns – culture gap, – technology gap– Service gap– knowledge gaps

• JONAS Activity• Expert Team Visit

Existing

Proposed

2010-2020

Cairns, 2007

> 100 Thunderstorm Days

> 100 days in all regions of Vietnam

NCHMF – no tools for nowcasting (TITAN/TIFS)

Need Severe Weather Systems and Expertise

Suggestion for Next StepsSuggestion for Next Steps1. FMI did a good review and assess about current status of VHMS

nowcasting system2. FMI is going to do some training courses of radar using and

interpreting in 20113. What should be done next?

• More training with real events of Vietnam after modernization project (when radars, AWS, automatic raingauge and NWP products… are available)

• Improve nowcasting system in Vietnam from National to Regional and even Provincial levels by setting up a easy-to-use system.

• Radar data sharing between neighbour countries.

CBS/PWS initiating a SWFDP in this area

Joint SWFDP/WWRP with Nowcasting component under JONAS umbrella?

Need to assess the warning, knowledge, technology, etc

INCA -CE

Explore possibility to be WWRP FDP?Yong Wang

Brazil: RTC-N/Test BedAverage of 20 floods per year in Sao Paolo

800-1000 deaths Serrana Jan 2011

Regional Training Centre - Nowcasting

• Request made several years ago (Augusto Pereira/USP)• Envision an advance course/post basic training on

nowcasting - severe weather, urban, hydrology • Housed at U of Sao Paolo

– Classrooms, radar facilities– Target – South America– Invite “S2K/B08” systems and experts

• Opportunity: FDP or Test Bed for nowcasting systems ?? – focus on urban, hydrology HIW

Detailed project concept and implementation plan being prepared.

Support by Ministry of Science and Technology. Interested in FDP/Testbed in Rio de Janiero and Sao Paolo. Pilot FDP using CARDS. Visit Canada in March.

RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test Bed

Feedback from JSC?

Radar Modernization

Discussion

• Forecast Systems Workshop

• Lake Victoria

• South East Asia

• South America Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting / FDP / Testbed

Nowcasts leads to a “call to action”

disaster (Flood/Landslide)

1 hour before

3-6 hours before

evacuation

Nowcast (Anal) >warning

VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution

Met. Information

1-2 days before

SRF(NWP) >Outlook

Local Government

Citizen

Stand byReady to take action

preparation

Action for recovery

Cancel warning

Back to normal (recovery)

Action for disaster prevention

Precip. Intensity

Keep in mind

Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs?

Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA

•Advise

•Promote Nowcasting

•Advance the Science

•Publish and Convene

•Capacity Build and Technology Transfer

Mandate of WGWWRP Strategic Plan

Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System

Temperature Perturbation, Winds, 35 dBZ Echo Nowcast

Jenny Sun

Radar

No Radar ForecastLength

Verification period23 June – 25 Aug 2008

30 dBZ reflectivityon HRRR 3-km grid

HRRR reflectivity verificationSkill vs. forecast length

CS

I

All HRRR forecasts

WSN09 Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC/RR Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Curtis Alexander, Doug

Koch, John Brown, Kevin Brundage, Barry Schwartz, Ming Hu, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison NOAA ESRL

Impact of Radar Data on NWP

Weygandt et alWSN09

Impact of Radar Data on NWP

ECMWF 1d+4dVAR12h Window T511 L6020May-20 June 2005Hourly RR 4 km NCEP gridRain-1d VAR, moisture increments vertically integrated for pseudo TCWV-assim-with 4DVARNew-CNTRL 4dVAR TCWV analysesWell structured drying and moisteningForecasts: Clear improvement over NA first 3 daysImprovement over Europe days 7-8

Current Use of Radar in DACentre NWP System Resolution

(km)Forecast Length

Met Office

UKV+3dVAR(3hr) 1.5 36hx4

Meteo France

AROME+3dVAR(3 hr)

2.5 30hx4

JMA Mesoscale Model (MSM)+4dVAR

5 15hX4, 33hx4

NOAA/

NCEP

Rapid Refresh +(RR)+3dVAR(1h)

3 18hx24

DWD COSMO-DE+3dVAR 2.8 18hx8

Partial list of international research efforts into the use of radar data in operational NWP systems

Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress)WMO

Project develop in progress Focus on:

Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)

Users: general public, agriculture and fishery communities Domains: (TBC)

5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria)

Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Possible start-up 2011

Peter ChenProvides “outlook”

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds • Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS),

Agriculture (incl. Fishery-Lake Victoria, AgM)• High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, dry-

spells) • Forecast Verification• Other developments (phased-in)

• Technological gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)– Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa

Satellite Imagery and Tools

WM

O S

P

Tailored forecasting products for farmers and fishermen

(e.g. statistical downscaling)

AgM

PWS + HWR

General Public, nearshore

vessels, Media and Disaster Management

Farmers and fishermen

AgM

MMO + AeM Navigation and Rescue

MH-EWS

Dissemination of Weather Information

Flash Flood Guidance

RS

MC

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Glo

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MW

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UK

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Bu

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Eth

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Global NWP/EPS

LAM, Ver.

GuidanceProducts

GDPFSP

WS

HW

R

Understand the weather dynamics

over the lakeW

WR

P

Lightning Initiation: Conceptual Idea

12

9

6

3Height (km)

Satellite Detection

12

9

6

3

Time

Radar Detection

CI Forecast without satellite

CI Forecast with satellite

30-45 min

to 75 min

What is the current LI forecast lead time?

LI Forecast?

Up to ~60 min added lead time

for LI using GOES

Lead time increases with slower growing cumulus clouds (i.e. low CAPE environments)

42John Mecikalski/ UAH

43

World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)

Operated by U. Wash.50 + sites worldwidePotential for site in Kenya

Bob Holzworth

• Data and Models• Online Maps• Visualizations• Decision Support• Training• Partnerships

Mapping Fires in Guatemala Mexico

Training and Capacity Building

Flood Forecasting in Africa

SERVIR

Collaboration between NASA and USAID to enable the use of earth observations and models for timely

decision making to benefit society

A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

• Spatially distributed hydrologic model CREST, developed by University of Oklahoma

• Based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model• Spatial resolution ~1km• Uses near real-time satellite rainfall estimates from TRMM to produce soil

moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow• SERVIR-east Africa makes real time model outputs for a watershed in Lake

Victoria basin

Nzoia River in the Lake Victoria Basin

CREST model

SERVIR Hydrologic Modeling

Modeled Evapotranspiration

A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

• Work in underway to expand the spatial extent of CREST runs to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) domain (~2000 x 2300 km)

• Spatial resolution: 1km

• KMD rainfall and temperature forecasts, available hourly at 1/8 spatial resolution, to provide boundary conditions.

• Forecasted soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow will enable KMD to issue early flood warning, especially in the flood prone watersheds in western Kenya.

• KMD intends to use the modeled fields to initialize the next model run

SERVIR Hydrologic Forecasting

A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC

Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change, Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and Enhanced Food Security

Improving the technical and scientific capabilities of the NMHSs of the respective countries to provide weather/climate information, products and services in support of key economic sectors

Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia

Finland

Severe weather forecasting demonstration project (Eastern Africa)

Enhanced use of outputs of Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for improved forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather conditions

Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda,Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda

World Bank, WMO

WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region

Climate Observations and Regional Modelling Support of Climate Risk Management and Sustainable Development

The proposed programme is intended to help the NMHS in GHA countries assemble the necessary climate observations and to understand and use regional climate modelling--that can help GHA countries design adaptation policies and reduce climate-associated risks.

Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania

World Bank  

Regional Climate Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change

Establishment of a Regional Climate Information Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya) is a key element.

Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania

KOICAPhase I completedPhase II under development

WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region

Mobile Weather AlertWeather forecasts and warnings via mobile communications

PILOT - To utilise mobile phone technology, including infrastructure, services and applications, to develop and demonstrate a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability to weather hazards of communities in the Lake Victoria Region.

Uganda, Tanzania

EricssonWBNorway?

Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (LVEMP II)

Proposes to scale up Uganda Mobile Weather Alert Pilot including investment in Lake Obs

Proposes investment in NMHS development in Rwanda and Burundi

Kenya, Uganda, TanzaniaRwanda, Burundi

World Bank

WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region

Nowcasting in Vietnam

• July 2010, Hanoi – Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain

• Data: – Satellite images (MTSAT, FY2):

about 15 minutes/image– 3 reflectivity radars: Việt Trì, Phủ

Liễn, Nội Bài– synoptic observations (every 3

hours or telephone (if required))– 15 automatic rain-gauges (since

Oct 2010)• Information Transmission to Public:

– NCHMF Website– Radio channel (Voice of Vietnam –

VOV) (live interview)

First Challenge in 2010First Challenge in 20101000 years Anniversary of Hanoi Capital (01st – 10th October, 2010)NCHMF and AMO coordinate implementationDetails:- 15 automatic raingauges and 02 temporary AWSs in Ba Đình and Mỹ Đình areas- Test period: 20th Sep – 30th Sep, 2010- In normal conditions:

- Warning issued every 6 hours - Information sent directly to Local Organization Committee via email and fax

- In thunderstorm / heavy rain conditions:- Warning issued every 0.5 - 1hours- Information was published on NCHMF website and VOV radio channel also

Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.

Related ProjectsRelated Projects1. VHMS and FMI project (PROMOSERV) on:

• Maintenance and calibration of automatic weather stations,

• use of radars, • and career development of personnel

2. VHMS and KMA project on:• Forecaster’s Analysis System (FAS) for

Vietnam• Typhoon join-Research in which KMA

support Vietnam TAPS-2 (Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System)

3. 2010 – 2012 Modernization project of VHMS4. WWRP FDP ??? – culture change!!!

First Idea of Nowcasting ImplementationFirst Idea of Nowcasting Implementation

- Attending “Radar and Nowcasting Workshop” in Cairns, Australia, 1-4 Aug 2007 hosted by BoM and Gematronik-Working with Mr. Tom Yoshida, retired Meteorologist in charge of Guam Meteorology Department in 02 radar interpretation training workshop in Hanoi (2005 and 2008)- Nowcast experiment in 2010- 2010 – 2012 Modernization Project of HMS on:

- Observation network- automatic stations (focus on Hanoi area)- 4 – 5 doppler radars (new and upgrade)

- Telecommunication system- Data processing and archive system- Regional/ city NWP models- Forecasting Technology-…

Hopefully, all data will be available for operational system!

NCHMF need a tool for nowcasting! I suggested VHMS to use TITAN and/or TIFS

Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection!

• U.S. ~1952

• Canada ~1980

• Australia ~1990

• China ~2003

• Romania ~2003

• Germany 2005

• Japan 2008