WWRP 1 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007 The WMO context of COPS: WWRP-THORPEX Dr....

15th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

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The WMO context of COPS: WWRP-THORPEX

Dr. Jeanette Onvlee, Chair WWRP/WG on mesoscale forecasting


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The History of WMOWeather Forecast Research

1998 50th session of Executive Council established WWRP as a

new programme that encompassed the original Programme on

Very Short- and Short-range Weather Prediction Research and the

Programme on Medium- and Long-range Weather Prediction

Research that date back to the 1970s

2003 14th session of WMO Congress established the THORPEX

programme supported through extra-budgetary funds

2006 14th session of CAS, 58th session Executive Council and CAS

Management Board led to the decision that WWRP and THORPEX

should be implemented together under a common Strategic Plan

and a “new improved” WWRP from 2007 onwards

WWRP FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS

Traditionally WWRP dealt mostly with A and B THORPEX arose to fill gaps in A and C As of 2007, the “new improved” WWRP will deal with all components

A

FORECASTRESEARCHPROJECTS

TECHNOLOGYTRANSFER:- FDPs, Meetings- TRAINING, etc

LINKING TO USER COMMUNITY:- OPERATIONAL WEATHER FORECASTS- CLIMATE MODELING- SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION

C

B

The organization of WWRP-THORPEX

CAS V ice-Presiden t

Greenhouse Gases Aerosols

Ozone Depletion UV

Precip . Chem istry Reactive Gases

GURM E GAW Data M anagem ent

W MO/IUGG Assessm en tAerosol-Precip itation

Chair OPAG-EPACEnviron . Po llu tion & Atm os. Chem istry

Joint Scientific S teering Com m ittee(GAW S tra tegic P lan 2001-2007)

Thorpex Forecast Verification

Tropical M eteoro logy Now casting

M esoscale Forecasting Social & Econom icIm pacts o f Forecasts

Param eterization of Convection,C louds and Precip itation

Chair OPAG-W W RPW orld W eather Research Program m e

Joint Scientific Com m ittee

M anagem ent G roup

CAS Presiden t

Global Atm. Watch (GAW) WWRP-THORPEX

ET- Weather Modification

Incorporating aerosols, ozone and greenhouse gases into NWP application

WGNE:

AREP-WCRP

WCRP&WGNE


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THORPEX

WMO Goal: reduce loss of life and damage in weather-related natural disasters

Specific aims of THORPEX: Improve forecast skill through research in predictability and

dynamic processes Target satellite and in-situ observations as input for a global

interactive forecast system (GIFS) Develop and evaluate data assimilation systems for the

assimilation of targeted observations Test and demonstrate the effectiveness of a global multi-model

multi-analysis ensemble forecasting system (TIGGE) Demonstrate societal and economic impact of improved forecasts

and their use in improved decision-making tools

- end-to-end approach: from research to linking with user community- to be reached through regional research plans, campaigns,

experiments


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Global Interactive Forecast System as envisaged by THORPEX

End-to-end forecast system “tuned” for end users, using targeted observations called on in ‘sensitive areas’, adaptive data assimilation, grid computing and distributed archives accessible through a single entry point.


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Mesoscale Forecasting

MAP D-PHASE: To demonstrate the benefits of forecasting heavy precipitation and related flood events, as gained from improved understanding, refined atmospheric and hydrologic modeling, and advances in technological abilities acquired through research work within the MAP

COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study): focusing on the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasts in low-mountain regions where severe systematic errors are found, which limit the application of quantitative precipitation forecasts for applications in hydrology, particularly for flash flood forecasting.

Beijing 2008 RDP on Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction: focuses on 6-36h mesoscale ensemble prediction in order to demonstrate how the state-of-the-art mesoscale ensemble systems can provide an improved weather service. All forecasting products will also be verified.


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Nowcasting

Beijing 2008 FDP: focusing on nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (0-6 hours) of convective storm tracks, precipitation and severe weather events. To demonstrate how state-of the-art nowcasting could provide an improved weather service associated with Olympic Games. The fist trial of the projects in July/August 2006 was successful.

WWRP International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (WSN05) (Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005): The aim of the Symposium was to examine the capabilities, opportunities and requirements for improved forecasts in the 0-6 hour timeframe. Special emphasis was placed on forecasts of high impact weather such as summer convective hazards (heavy rain, hail, lightning, high winds), as well as winter weather events (snowstorm, blizzards, etc.) and other hazardous conditions (fog, low ceiling and visibility, etc.).

Third WWRP Nowcasting Training Workshop (Pretoria, South Africa , 28 Nov-9 Dec 2005 )


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Tropical Meteorology Research

Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) held from 20 to 30 November 2006 in San Jose, Costa Rica with the theme “ Quantitative Forecast Guidance for Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Relation to an Effective Warning System”.

Third WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-III) (Hangzhou, China, November 2004) produced a technical document : The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (WMO/TD-No. 1266, 542 pages, published in 2005).

A FDP Proposal on Development of an Advanced Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System for the Philippines was presented at the Third International Early Warning Conference (EWC III) (Bonn, Germany, 27-29 March 2006) and an Implementation Plan was submitted to WMO DPM Office.


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Forecasting Verification

WGNE/WWRP Joint Verification Working Group chaired by B. Brown developed a Real Time Forecast Verification System (RTFVS) for Beijing 2008 FDP/RDP .

Third International Verification Methods Workshop has been held in ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, from 29 January to 2 February 2007. This workshop has been organized by WGNE/WWRP Joint Verification Working Group, and co-sponsored by ECMWF, WMO and WCRP.


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Cross-links with climate:WWRP-THORPEX and WCRP

JSC/WCRP member of ICSC and science groups

THORPEX in WCRP/COPES Joint project initiated to develop a unified ultra-high-resolution

global weather and climate prediction system

Collaboration in TIGGE

TIGGE and Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) Similar technical issues (data, archiving, policy)

Potential for “seamless” days-seasons prediction systems

Links established between THORPEX and TFSP

Is a joint effort on clouds and precipitation

parameterization in NWP models needed?


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The WWRP-THORPEX Strategic Plan

To be formulated in the course of 2007/2008.

Elements:

Synoptic-scale Meteorology

Meso-scale Weather Forecasting

Tropical Meteorology: Tropical Storms &Monsoons

Convection, Clouds and Precipitation Parameterization

Nowcasting

Forecast verification

Societal and Economic Applications

Incorporating Atmospheric Aerosols and Ozone In NWP Models (supporting GEMS and similar efforts)


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Science Plan peer-reviewed;

Implementation Plan 2004-2015

approved;

Approved annual expenditure $ 1.2M

through a trust fund;

First Symposium (Montreal,2004)

Regional Committees - RAII,IV,VI

Southern Hemisphere alliance

Second Symposium (Landshut,

Bavaria, Germany, 4-8 Dec 2006)

THORPEX regional plan for RA VI

(nearly) completed


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Toward a Strategic Plan for WWRP-THORPEX

Hold THORPEX meetings in December 2006 and February 2007

Establish JSC-WWRP Hold meeting of JSC in April 2007 and organize the

development of the plan within an 18 month framework including consultation with WGNE, WCRP, WWW

WWRP 1 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007 The WMO context of COPS: WWRP-THORPEX Dr....

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