WWRP- GAW 1 WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011 WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System...

1WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

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WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS)

SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS

IN THE SDS-WAS IMPLEMENTATION

Slobodan Nickovic

Research DepartmentWorld Meteorological Organization


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AWDust Plumes off Libya and Egypt

February 18, 2011


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MODIS detection of dust strom

Health NASA dust-health related project

REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011)


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Sources based on MODIS hi-res data




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Hot-spot structure of sources Requires hi-res models


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Comparison with observed valuesMean values for 3 locations with observations:

19-22h UTC00-03h UTC450

430

Casa Grande, Stanfield, Cowtown


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Links between meningitis and dusty weather Project partners: WMO, WHO, GEO, IRI MACC – AEMET & BSC

Health MERIT project

Sahel region within the meningitis epidemics area

BSC dust model – 46 years of dust & weather reanalysis (Perez et al., 2007)


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TUNIS (CNN) 7 May, 2002, 17:44 GMT -- An EgyptAir jet crashed on a hillside outside Tunisia's capital, killing 18 people, a government official said…

…Weather was foggy and rainy at the time, with sandstorms blowing in from the Sahara Desert. ...

Aviation


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Predicted dust load (μg m-2)

Site of the accident

06 UTC, 7 May 2002 18-hr forecast

Predicted cross-section dust concentration (μg m-3)





12 UTC, 7 May 2002 24-hr forecastTunisian dust storm captured by MODISSource: Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey

Features of the case:- Major Mediterranean dust storm- Fast moving system- More than 5 mg m-3 in the

elevated dust cloud core!

dust


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Through negative feedback on winds “dust kills dust”. Perez et al., 2006Ground cools down by ~5 C during strong SDS and air aloft warms slightly

Without aerosol Feedback

With aerosol feedback

Including interaction dust and radiation can Improve Weather Forecasts In A Regional

Model (Nickovic 2002)

Dust-radiation interactions


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Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly in the UK operational model over the Sahara?Haywood, et al., JGR 2003

WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

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Assimilation MODIS AOD in ECMWF MACC


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Assimilation of MACC dust AOD in a regional dust model (WMO South East Regional Climate Centre)

Without assimilation With assimilation


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D8-NO ASSIMILATION D8-WITH ASSIMILATIOND

UST

LO

ADW

ET D

EPO

SITI

ON

04 March 2010Case of yellow snow observed by visitors in the Kopaonik sky resort (location marked with )


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Importance of mineral composition in desert soils

• Fe and P embedded in dust ocean nutrients

• cloud ice nucleation sensitive to mineral composition

• Hypothesis: Fe as an enhancement factor in meningitis outbreaks (Thompson, 2008)


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Clay soils

Silt soils

Illite

Smectite

Calcite

Quartz

Kaolinite

Feldspar

Quartz

Calcite

Hematite

Fe-containing mineralsA(I,J); 4km


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ATMOSPHERIC IRON PROCESSING


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• Dust is a carrier of the embedded nutrients

such as Fe and phosphorus

• In remote oceans, input of iron in dust

dominates other inputs

• Soluble iron is an essential micronutrient in

marine environments• SDS-WAS and GESAMP

(joint workshop, March 2011)

Algae Bloom Canary Islands August 2004

(Ramos et al., 2008)

Ocean productivityWMO in GESAMP


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Horizont

alV

ertical


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Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe

Dust – efficient ice nucleation substance

• The number concentration of ice nuclei data since January 2008 at the Taunus Observatory

• DREAM simulations

• Joint study [Goethe-University group and WMO (Nickovic, Barrie)] combining observations and dust modelling

• May 2008 case

Klein, et al: Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe (ACP, 2010)


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25 May 09

29 May 09

27 May 09

DREAM simulation:

Dust load and 850 hPa wind streamlines


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Observations

Model


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ECMWF-dust

Homogenization - Data format (GRIB2)- Products - Forecasting range +72h, every 3h- Geographical domain- Lat/Lon- Color palette- ...

……N ModelBSC-DREAM

Homogenization of forecasts

Dust aerosol at the surface (mg m-3)Dust Aerosol optical depth at 550nm


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International Cooperative on AerosolPrediction (ICAP)

NAAPS

GEOS MACC

WWRP- GAW 1 WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011 WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System...

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