WMO G Srinivasan/ Rupa Kumar Kolli WMO Operational Mechanisms for Provision of Climate Services...

WMO

G Srinivasan/ Rupa Kumar Kolli WMO

Operational Mechanisms for Provision of Climate Services

Globally

National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013


Climate Services

Consolidation of knowledge about past, present and future state of the climate system;

Identification climate information needs within the communities and specific sectors to actions that are particularly sensitive to climate variability and change;

Development and delivery of a range of ‘products’ and advice based on climate knowledge and driven by the identified needs for climate services;

Ongoing efforts for building applications/products and capacities for effective uptake to help achieve benefits


Generation

Ultimate user

Distinctive Features of climate services

Available● at time and space scales that the

user needs Dependable

● delivered regularly and on time Usable

● presented in user specific formats so that the client can fully understand

Credible● for the user to confidently apply to

decision-making Authentic

● entitled to be accepted by stakeholders in the given decision contexts

Responsive and flexible● to the evolving user needs

Sustainable● affordable and consistent over

time.


Climate Risk Management

Defined as a systematic and coordinated process in which climate

information is used to reduce the risks associated with climate

variability and change, and to take advantage of opportunities, in order to improve the resilience of social,

economic and environmental systems.

Seasonal Weather scale Inter-annual

Decadal 20 – 30 yrs

Impacts/Risks/Adaptation

Current Climate Variability Future Climate Change

Need to provide Climate information and Services on a continuum of time-scales for

Climate risk management and adaptation actions

Climate, in a narrow sense can be defined as the average weather conditions for a particular location and period of time.

Described in terms of statistical tendencies and variability.

2100



Global Centers receive and process nationally generated data and produce & distribute data and products

o Observations o Research o Information

System o User Interface o Capacity Building

Respond to globally expressed needs from stakeholders at all levels both suppliers and users

Regional dedicated entities within the region collection and exchange of data & products



Source of all data & products, for within country use and international exchange



Responds mainly to stakeholders within the region, particularly national organizations.

Primary Focus on national needs, relationship with users and provide feedback on requirements

Data and Product flows Framework Elements Feedback & Demand G

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Data flows Feedback

National Users

Products & Services

Food Security

Climate is just one of the many factors !!

Components of the Framework User Interface Platform - to provide a

means for users, user representatives, climate researchers and climate service providers to interact

Climate Services Information System - to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers

Observations and Monitoring - to ensure that the climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated.

Research, Modelling and Prediction - to assess and promote the needs of climate services within research agendas

Capacity Building - to support systematic development of the necessary institutions, infrastructure and human resources to provide effective climate services.

Users, Government, private sector, research, agriculture, water,health, construction, disaster reduction, environment,tourism,

transport, etc

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observations and Monitoring

Research, Modeling and Prediction

CAPACITY BUILDING

Users, Government, private sector, research, agriculture, water,health, construction, disaster reduction, environment,tourism,

transport, etc

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observations and Monitoring

Research, Modeling and Prediction

CAPACITY BUILDING


Climate Service Information System (CSIS) The CSIS is the component of the GFCS most concerned

with the generation and dissemination (data flow) of climate information.

It is the ‘operational centre’ of the GFCS. It will include climate monitoring, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal) and projection (centennial) activities.

CSIS “to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers.’


Elements of Climate Services Information System


Currently Designated GPCs

Links to GPCs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html


http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html

Global Producing Centres of LRF

In 2006, WMO set up a process to designate centres making global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long Range Forecasts

GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and usability of output:

● a fixed forecast production cycle● a standard set of forecast products● WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts)

A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts – SVSLRF)


GPC products provided as minimum requirement Predictions for averages, accumulations, or frequencies over 1-month

periods or longer● typically, anomalies in 3-month-averaged quantities is the standard format for

seasonal forecasts. Forecasts are usually expressed probabilistically Lead time: between 0 and 4 months Issue frequency: monthly or at least quarterly Delivery: graphical images on GPC website and/or digital data for

download Variables: 2m temperature, precipitation, sea-surface temperature

(SST), MSLP, 500hPa height, 850hPa temperature Long-term forecast skill assessments, using measures defined by the

SVSLRF


WMO Lead Centres for LRF

WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME)Jointly coordinated by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and NOAA/NCEP http://www.wmolc.org/

WMO Lead Center for Standard Verification System of Long Range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF)Jointly coordinated by Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia and Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/


http://www.wmolc.org/

http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/

Global and Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)

WMO CCl TT Global and Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)

Regular global consensus statements on seasonal climate – Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU);

GSCU to include information on current and future seasonal anomalies and uncertainty aspects to assist risk management, adaptation policies and decision making of global partners

Enhanced use of such products by RCCs and other regional entities;

Global-scale climate monitoring results for the previous 3 months

Potential evolution of the state of the climate over the next 3 months


WMO RCC Status Worldwide Carbbean (CIMH) – in demonstartion phase.

Designated RCCs

Designated RCC Network

BCCTCC

NEACC

ICPAC

ACMAD

CIIFEN

Pilot RCCs

Pilot RCC Networks by 2012

Pilot RCCs in development

SADC-CSC


CIMH

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) WMO RCCs are Centres of Excellence performing regional-scale

climate functions Mandatory Functions:

● Operational Activities for LRF● Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring● Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate

monitoring● Training in the use of operational RCC products and services

Highly Recommended Functions:● Climate prediction and projection (recognized as important need –

WCRP/CORDEX linkage and linkage with the research communities)● Non-operational data services● Coordination functions● Training and capacity building● Research and development


Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide

NEBCOFNEBCOF

SASCOF

NEACOF

EASCOF

ASEANCOF


RCOF Concept produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based

approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season. Regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector

RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) and other climate prediction centres.

Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks.

RCOF sessions are expected to feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision-makers and the public.


Capacity development

Human capacity Infrastructural capacity Procedural capacity Institutional capacity

Capacity development should:• address both demand and supply sides• be service oriented• respond to user needs• be balanced with climate science capabilitiesNational Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

In conclusion we have to build- Systematic and

coordinated process for production and use of climate information

- Integrated global to national levels

- Capacities to build bridges and serve specific needs


www.wmo.int

Thank [email protected]/[email protected]

For more information on GFCS: http://www.wmo.int/gfcs

Google Group: http://www.wmo.int/gfcs/group


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

RCCs (contd.) – update RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs; warnings and national-

scale products will continue to be the responsibility of NMHSs Establishment of RCCs is initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs

and priorities Implementation Status:

● Beijing and Tokyo designated as WMO RCCs in June 2009; North Eurasian Climate Centre (Russia) commenced RCC pilot phase in December 2010.

● India, Iran and Saudi Arabia expressed interest to host RCCs● Pilot phase of RCC-Network getting completed in Europe; and designation completed.● Africa initiates RCC implementation by identifying six RCCs (two of them being RCC-

Networks); ICPAC and ACMAD commenced pilot phase operations.● South America decides to establish 3 RCCs (two of them being RCC-Networks): CIIFEN,

Brazil-Argentina and Brazil-French Guayana● Carbbean (CIMH) – has expressed inteerst and entered into demonstartion phase.


Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

A key component of WMO Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project activities.

First established in October 1996 at the Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe).

Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event.

RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide. WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations

(e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion.


Categories of Infrastructural Capacities

Seasonal Climate Outlooks

Decadal Climate Prediction

Long-term Climate Projections

Interaction with users

Climate Observations

Climate Data Management

Climate Application Tools

Climate Monitoring

Specialised climate products

Customized climate products

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WMO G Srinivasan/ Rupa Kumar Kolli WMO Operational Mechanisms for Provision of Climate Services...

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