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Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): Roles of Global, Regional and National Operational Entities

Rupa Kumar KolliC/WCAS, WMO

Winter SASCOF-1, Chennai, India, 15 October 2015

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Global Framework for Climate Services

Goal:

• Enable better management of the risks of climate

variability and change and adaptation to climate

change at all levels, through development and

incorporation of science-based climate information

and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

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What are Climate Services?

• Provide a source of accumulated knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system;

• The development and delivery of a range of "products" and advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems

– Historical climate data sets

– Climate monitoring

– Climate watches

– Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions

– Climate change projections

• The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results.

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Why a Framework for Climate Services?

• It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources…) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors.

• A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings.

• Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.

• Climate services have not been able to reach the last mile to those who need them the most.

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Components of GFCS

,

User Interface

Users – Government, private sector, research – agriculture, water, health,

construction, disaster reduction, environment, tourism, transport, etc.

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observations and

Monitoring

Research, Modeling

and Prediction

CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT

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GFCS Sectoral Priorities

All sectors to be tackled but in the first four

years the GFCS is proposing giving priority to:

• Agriculture and Food Security

• Disaster risk reduction

• Water

• Human Health

• Energy*

*Recommended by IBCS-2/Approved by Cg-17

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Role of CSIS within the GFCS

• The CSIS is the means of delivery of climate data and products.

• It comprises global, regional and national centres and entities that generate/process climate information (observations and predictions), and the exchange of data and products to agreed standards and protocols.

• It must be supported by observation and research programmes (e.g. GCOS, WCRP). With ‘pull through’ facilitated by strong links.

• Capacity building initiatives will increase ‘conductivity’ of data flow

• Part of the CSIS is in place, but new infrastructure is needed to fullfil the GFCS vision.

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User Interface Platform

National/Sectoral

users

Specialized data centres National data centresGlobal data centres

Climate Data Centres

National climate centresGlobal Producing Centres

Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction Centres

Regional Climate Centres

National

Climate

Forums

Regional usersGlobal users

Regional systems National systemsGlobal systems

Climate Observing Systems

Regional

Climate Outlook

Forums

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Global Producing Centres of LRF

• In 2006, WMO set up a process to designate centres making global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long Range Forecasts

• GPCs adhere to commonly defined standards – aiding consistency and usability of output:– a fixed forecast production cycle

– a standard set of forecast products

– WMO-defined verification standards

• A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts – SVSLRF)

• 12 GPCs designated so far

• Two Lead Centres: LC-LRFMME and LC-SVSLRF

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Currently Designated GPCs

Links to GPCs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html

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Purpose of RCCs

• Many societal and economic systems are vulnerable to the

impacts of climate variability and change;

• Decision-makers require high-quality, reliable, timely information

on current, predicted and projected conditions for safety and

security, and for adaptation strategies and measures

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Purpose of RCCs

• Development and delivery of effective climate services for the benefit of all WMO Members requires:– Regional cooperation for

capacity-building and infrastructure development;

– Operational implementation of the progress made in WMO’s climate monitoring and research initiatives;

– A regional mechanism for interpretation and interface to NMHSs of global SIP

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Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

• RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate functions, including:– Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring

– Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the region

– Data services

– Climate Applications

– Training and capacity building

– Research and Development

• RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and national-scale products

• Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities

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WMO RCC: Definitions

• WMO-RCC– A multifunctional centre that fulfils all the required functions of an RCC for

the entire region, or for a sub-region to be defined by the regional association

• WMO RCC-Network– A group of centres performing climate-related activities that collectively

fulfil all the required functions of an RCC

• WMO RCC-Network Node– a centre in a designated WMO RCC-Network

– a node will perform, for the region or sub-region defined by the regional association, one or several of the mandatory RCC activities (e.g. long-range forecasting (LRF), climate monitoring, climate data services, training).

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More on the RCC concept

• Who can use the title?– Only centres or groups of centres designated by WMO will carry the title

‘WMO RCC’ or ‘WMO RCC-Network’ respectively.

• Recipients of RCC products and services (RCC Users):– NMHSs,

– other RCCs and

– international institutions recognized by the regional association.

• Guidance for RCCs and RCC-Networks:– Guidance published by the Commission for Climatology on technical,

climate-related matters

– Functions and criteria identified in the Manual on the GDPFS

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Minimum Functions for RCC Designation (1/2)

• Operational Activities for LRF*:– Interpret and assess relevant LRF products from GPCs, distribute relevant

information to RCC Users; and provide feedback to GPCs

– Generate regional and sub-regional tailored products, relevant to RCC User needs, including seasonal outlooks etc.;

– Perform verification of RCC quantitative LRF products, including the necessary exchange of basic forecasts and hindcast data;

– Generate ‘consensus’ statement on regional or sub-regional forecasts;

– Provide on-line access to RCC products/services to RCC Users;

– Assess use of RCC products and services through feedback from RCC Users.

* Both dynamical and statistical, within the range of 1 month to 2 year timescale, based on regional needs

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Minimum Functions for RCC Designation (2/2)

• Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring:– Perform climate diagnostics including analysis of climate variability and

extremes, at regional and sub-regional scales;

– Establish an historical reference climatology for the region and/or sub-regions;

– Implement a regional Climate Watch.

• Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring:– Develop regional climate datasets, gridded where applicable;

– Provide climate database and archiving services, at the request of NMHSs;

• Training in the use of operational RCC products and services– Provide information on methodologies and product specifications for

mandatory RCC products, and provide guidance on their use

– Coordinate training for RCC Users in interpretation and use of mandatory RCC products.

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RCC ‘Highly Recommended’ Functions

• Climate prediction and projection– Use of model simulations, downscaling of scenarios, adaptation

strategies, verification

• Non-operational data services– WIS; DARE; metadata; assist Members in archiving, datasets, QM,

QA/QC; homogenization; DBM;

• Coordination functions– Collaboration; assist members with user liaison, media, public awareness

strategies

• Training and capacity building– Promote technical, assist in professional, capacity building

• Research and development– CV and CC, regional models, proxy data, economic value of climate

information

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WMO RCC Status Worldwide

Designated RCC-Networks

RCC-Networks in Demo Phase

BCCTCC

NEACC

ICPAC

ACMAD

CIIFEN

RCCs in Demonstration Phase

RCCs Proposed

RCC-Networks Proposed

SADC-CSC

Designated RCCs

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Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

• RCOFs provide platforms for Climate experts and climate information users to:– Discuss current climate status

– Exchange views on scientific developments in climate prediction

– Develop consensus-based regional climate outlooks that can feed into national climate outlooks produced by NMHSs

– Engage in user-provider dialogue

• An important aspect of RCOFs is the facility to bring together experts in various fields, at regular intervals, operational climate providers and end users of forecasts in an environment that encourages interaction and learning.

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Consensus Process in RCOFs: Mostly Subjective

Assessment

(conversation)

Regional, seasonal

Outlook (temp, rain, flows)

Products

ENSO

State

Climate

Patterns

Climatology(Precip/Temp)

ENSOTeleconnections

ENSO

Dynamical(mostly Global)

Statistical(National/Regional)

Bac

kgro

und F

orecasts

Observations

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Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide

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Potential National Mechanisms

• Framework for Climate Services at the national level– Similar to GFCS structure but involves practicalities and specifics for delivery of climate

services at the national level.

– Some countries may establish coordination mechanisms appropriate to their national context, largely as integral components of the NMHSs, to support/facilitate GFCS implementation at the national level

• National Climate Outlook Forums (NCOFs)– Adapting the Large and Regional scale forecasts to the national context

– Tailoring products and translating key messages for users (Multidisciplinary Working Groups)

– Evaluating the impact of expected conditions (with existing vulnerabilities)

• Coordination mechanisms at National level– Tailored to specific National context

– Positioning of NMHS within the Framework at the national level

– Strong and sustained users liaison

– Research focus on national needs

– Wide access to climate data and knowledge base

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Examples of Benefits

• Better water resources management– as inputs to hydrological characterization (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, etc.)

– in planning, design, development and operation of water supplies

– in flood and floodplain management and control

– design and operation of irrigation and drainage systems;

– for studies associated with power generation, fisheries an conservation,

– navigation and recreation.

• Improved disaster risk management– Planning and emergency preparedness and response to extreme events Siting of critical infrastructure

such as hospitals, schools, etc.

• Improved support to planning and operations in the health sector– Risk Assessment/health system risk management Epidemiological Surveillance & environmental

Monitoring

– Health Services (heat health warning systems, malaria waning system, etc…)

• Improved agricultural planning and management– Better drought and flood management

– Improved food security

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WMO ● Climate & Water Department www.wmo.int

Thank You

RKolli@wmo.int