World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO OMM

WMO www.wmo.int

Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO

Robert Stefanski/José CamachoAgricultural Meteorology Division

Climate Prediction and Adaptation BranchClimate and Water Department

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 2

WMO OMM

Outline

• Seasonal Forecasts and Agriculture

• WIS and WIGOS

• Global Framework for Climate Services

• Summary

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 3

WMO OMM

Climate Prediction and Agriculture

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 4

WMO OMM

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

• First established in 1996 at a Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.

• Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event.

• RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide.

• WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 5

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Existing RCOFs worldwide

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 6

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RCOF Concept

• Climate information including predictions/outlooks substantial benefit in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change.

• RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season.

• Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector representatives.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 7

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GHACOF Products & Applications

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 8

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www.dmcsee.org

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 9

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User Community for Climate Forecasts

• Producers use climate information to assist with many decisions:• Crop choice • Choice of cultivar (early or late)• Mixture of crops• Fertiliser use• Pest and disease control• Timing of the harvest• Irrigation scheduling• Area planted to a given crop (and/or rotation of fields); • Timing and amount of tillage• Stocking rates.

Source: Huda 2006

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 10

WMO OMM

W

• CAgM Expert Team Meeting on Climate Change/Variability and Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture, Brisbane, Australia February 2005

2007 Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol 58, No. 10

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 11

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S ow date & S OI P hase

15-S epNegative

15-O c tNegative

15-NovNegative

15-DecNegative

15-JanNegative

Yie

ld (

kg/h

a)

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

Preparedness information on which to make a decision: DSS ‘Whopper Cropper’ – integrates climate forecasting, crop simulation modelling, and agronomic information.

Source: Stone & Meinke 2006

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 12

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WIS and WIGOS

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 13

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World Meteorological

Centres

WWW GTS

Regional/Specialized Meteorological Centres

National Meteorological

Centres

Meteorological and R&D Satellite Operator Centres

Current situation: GTS

interconnects

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 14

WMO OMM

Goals of WMO Information System (WIS)

• GTS needs to be open to all WMO activities to provide time critical information exchange

• Internet should be a part of WIS to allow support of less critical requirements

• The continuous improvement and adaptation of new technologies in the GTS should be maintained.

• The WIS should be open to more than just WMO programs allowing partners to participate

• Need seamless discovery, access and retrieval (DAR) across all WMO systems, including collaborators and partners.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 15

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Commercial Service

Providers

5 GAW World Data Centres

GCOS Data Centres

Global Run-off Data CentreIRI and other climate research institutes

Universities

Regional Climate Centres

International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP, FAO.. )

World Radiation Centre

Regional Instrument Centres

WMO World Data Centres

Real-time “push”

On-demand “pull”

InternetInternet

DCPC

NC/DCPC

NCNC

NC/DCPC

NC

NC

NC

NC

NC

NC

GISC

GISCGISC

SatelliteTwo-Way System

Satellite Dissemination

NC

NC

DCPC

GISC GISC

DCPC

WMO Information System (WIS)WMO Information System (WIS)

National Centres (NC)

Global Information System Centres (GISC)

Data Collection and Production Centres (DCPC)

Data communication network

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 16

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WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS)

• Different diverse WMO observing systems; • Need for integration of these diverse obs. systems in a holistic approach; • WIGOS – the organizational response of WMO to this need.

• Comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems based on the RQs of all WMO Programmes;

• Together with WIS it aims to deliver an WMO end-to-end system of systems designed: to improve the Members’ capability to provide wide range of services, to better serve the needs of research programmes.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 17

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WMO Congress (Resolution 30)

• Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems

• Strategic objective of WMO; • Parallel planning and implementation with WIS (end-

to-end system of systems)

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 18

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WIGOS - framework

• WIGOS will be an organizational framework facilitating standardization and interoperability and ensuring: availability of, and real-, near-real- and non-real-time access

to, required good-quality data/products and associated metadata;

data quality standards are documented, met and sustained.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 19

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WIGOS - purpose

• The organizational, programmatic, procedural and governance framework will provide: • a single focus for the operational and management functions

of all WMO obs. systems and • a mechanism for interactions with WMO co-sponsored

observing systems.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 20

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WIGOS - relationship

• WIGOS will respect:Partnership,Ownership andData-sharing policy

of all obs. components and partner organizations.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 21

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Global Framework for Climate Services

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 22

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Global Framework for Climate Services

WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3Geneva, Switzerland

31 August–4 September 2009

• Goal:– Enable better management of the risks of climate

variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climateinformation and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 23

WMO OMMGFCS: ObjectivesGFCS: Objectives

• Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations, International organizations, scientists and sectors will work together to meet the needs of users;

• Enable users to benefit from improved climate information and prediction;

• Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions to generate and provide future climate information on an operational basis;

• Cooperative global infrastructure to foster sharing new advances in science and information.

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 24

WMO OMM

Climate Services CycleClimate Services Cycle

Capacity Building

Observations

Research, Modelling and

Prediction

Climate User Interface

Programme

Climate Services Information

Systems

Development of information and

products

Delivery of Products

Monitoring and Analysis

Application of Products

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 25

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Status of GFCS

• Approved by WMO Congress in June 2011;

• Inter-Agency Consultation Meeting on User Interface Platform for GFCS (FAO HQ – 26-28 Sep 2011)

• Extraordinary Session of the WMO Congress in 2012 to address the development of the draft GFCS implementation plan and establishment of Rules of Procedure for the Intergovernmental Board

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva 26

WMO OMM

Summary

• RCOFs structure supporting agricultural decision making

• WIS as a open concept to provide weather and climate information to a wider community than the NMHS.

• WIGOS provide common ground for better technical management of observations in a world scale

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO OMM

WMO www.wmo.int

Thank YouWorld Meteorological Organization

GenevaSwitzerland