What’s Good and What’s ad8fa8dc0a2e3e7ca565d3-c00b8f5981eeef45d23458df499b22bf.r11.cf1... ·...

© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd

Martin L Shaw MBA C Eng C Mar Eng FI Mar EST AFNI

Managing DirectorMarine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd

What’s Good and What’s Bad for Tanker Operators?

Tanker Operator Conference

Hamburg April 2016


Outline

• The good news

• The bad news…new regulations

• The world

• The oil industry

• The customer

• The ship operators challenges– The system

– Is there another system?


Tanker industry


Good News?


Fleet Growth

Source Intertanko


Good News and Bad News?

ISMCode

New Vessels Double Hull

Development of Port State and Vetting

Erika/Prestige

Tightening of SOLAS MARPOL STCW

ISPS

SECA’s

Piracy

Building Boom

Low Freight Rates

TMSA1 TMSA2

Ballast waterShip Efficiency

GHGMLCEtc

IGSCOWSteering GearSBT etc.


The world


World growth, oil growth

• Growth Forecasts reduced• Brexit• Main oil growth is in transportation-electric

cars


The oil Industry


IEA Supply/Demand Balance


Oil Price from IEA

• Recent OPEC Deal?• Subsequent increases• Iran locking in higher

production after sanctions• Will the OPEC deal turn the

clock back?


If you’ve got it pump it!


Don’t forget the future of the planet!!

And what about energy security!!!


The customer


Upstream Midstream Downstream

Oil industry dimensions

• Oil super major? .. XOM, Shell, BP

• Oil major + Chevron, Total, Statoil, Conoco Phillips

• E&P’s ….. Premier, Talisman etc

• Refiners …... Inios, Valero etc

• Traders…...Glencore, Trafigura etc

• Integrated / sector specific

• IOC or NOC?!!!

Mar

kets

Mar

kets

Mar

kets

Mar

kets


Oil major earnings


Oil producers

Data source Forbes

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Saudi Aramco

Gazprom

NIOC

Exxon Mobil

Rosneft

Petrochina

BP

Shell

Petromex

Kuwait

Chevron

Abu Dhabi

Total

Petrobras

Qatar

Lukoil

Sonatrach

Iraq

PDVSA

Conoco Phillips

Statoil

ISIS

Oil Majors? 2015 Top Producers


Remember the 70’s

Oil Major Owned36%

Oil Major T/C52%

Spot12%

Oil Major share of tanker tonnage 1970

Oil Major Owned

Oil Major T/C

Spot

Data Source Martin Stopford Maritime Economics


0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

TeekayMOLNITC

EuronavBahri

AETChina VLCC

FrontlineSCF

MaranNYK

COSCODynacom

Ocean TankersChina Shipping

OSGMaersk

SKMinerva

NaviosOman

BWGener8

ThenamarisDHT

TsakosFormosa

SCITORM

BP Shipping

Tanker Owners Top 30 2015

MDWT in service

MDW building

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-5

-3

-2

Tanker Owners Top 30

+2

+2

+2

-1

-1

=

=

=

=

+5

-4

+1

+3

-4

-5

-5

-3

-2

-2

+9

++

Source Tanker Operator Magazine


Biggest Charterers

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Unipec

Shell

Vitol

BP

Chevron

Litasco (Lukoil)

Exxon Mobil

CSSA (Total)

ST Shipping

Indian Oil Corporation

Repsol

Clearslake

CNR

Socar

Trafigura

Petrochina

Petrobras

Reliance

Bahri

PTT (Thailand)

Number of Fixtures ( Data source Potens)

2015 Dirty Fixtures


What the charterer wants?

• Safe

• Reliable

– On time-no stock outs or field shutdowns

– No breakdowns

– No contamination

• Efficient

– Good rate

– Load and discharge full stem

– Good communications


The ship operators challenges


Other Traders100+

Tankers(10,000+)

Tanker Companies (1,000+)

Port s (1000+)

OCIMF Members

100+

Other Charterer /Terminal Vetting

Organisations 50-100

Other Industry Organisations

(10+)

Other Port State

MOU’s (10+)

Other Port

States (100+)

Recognised Organisations (RO’s)/Class (30+)

IMO Member States (170+)

Tanker Regulatory SystemIMO

Flag state

RO/Class RO/Class

ShipbuilderDesign & Build

Port

Tanker

Requirements•Contract•Specification•Modifications

Feedback•Plans•Sea trial data•Certificates

Requirements•SOLAS•MARPOL

Requirements•Class Rules•Surveys

•Surveys•Certificates•Audits

Requirements•SOLAS•MARPOL•ISM

Company

IACS

•SOLAS•MARPOL•STCW•ISM

•Arrival Documents•Cargo Documents

•National Laws•Port Regulations•Terminal Regulations

Port State

MOU

Port State inspection Detention/Sanction

Feed

bac

k In

spec

tio

n D

eten

tio

n/S

anct

ion

Inspection Detention/Sanction

Targeting Data

Public Domain

Info

Ran

kin

gs, b

lack

listi

ng

OCIMF

Vetting Org

ICS

SIRE

SIRE Ship Inspector

SIRE Inspection

SIR

E In

spec

tio

n

Rep

ort

Req

uir

eme

nts

SIR

E V

IQ

Req

ues

t fo

r In

spec

tio

n

Operation

SIRE Inspection from initiating company

Owner Response

SIRE Reports

SOLAS,MARPOL,STCW,ISM

ICS CodesGuides

OCIMF CodesGuides

TMSA

InsuranceIndustry

Casualty Data

Terminal Feedback

TraderVetting Clause

Vetting Status Feedback

MaintainDesign

and Build

TMSA

Rankings, blacklisting


Fantasy Industry

The dream

• Transparent markets

• Balanced market providing fair return for owners and economic transportation for charterers

• Single uniform standard across the globe

• Consistent compliance and enforcement

• No need for port state and vetting

The requirements

• No flags of convenience

• Transparent ownership and taxation

• Ship-owners committed to common standards

• No competition between flag states, class societies.

• Clean up and liability costs totally covered by international funds

• No overreaction by media and politicians.

• No traders.

• No state support for shipyards

• And you need to believe in…..


Conclusions

• Healthy tanker rates?

• Incident rates and pollutions are low but the consequence of getting it wrong is even higher than it was

• Demand is uncertain with world growth, price, demand, energy security and climate change

• There are many customers– National oil companies are increasingly the main player

– IOC’s• Super majors, majors

• Traders

• E&P’s

• The balance has changed over 50 years but instead of big oil major fleets there are now big NOC fleets

• The industry is complex but what’s the alternative?

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