What makes a good plan better?. Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits.

Benefit DriversWhat makes a good plan better?

Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits

Outline

Perspectives:◦ What can Lake Superior regulation affect?◦ What shipments could reduce costs the most for

the least change in water levels?◦ Which water levels affect costs?

Analysis

Navigation benefits

Nav Benefits of Current Alternatives

Net Benefits77A 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 55M49 Bal1 PP

1-Sup $0.00 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002-MH $0.00 $0.16 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.093-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.004-E $0.00 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.015-S-MH $0.00 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.22 -$0.16 -$0.58 -$0.22 -$0.436-S-MH-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07 -$0.03 -$0.057-S-MH-StC-E $0.00 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.21 -$0.60 -$0.13 -$0.578-MH-StC $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.019-MH-StC-E $0.00 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.0910-StC-E $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$0.00 -$0.18 -$0.19 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.21 -$0.17 -$1.74 -$0.48 -$1.25

Rank 1 5.5 9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 2 13 11 12

Things to notice

1. Almost no difference on costs for shipments below Michigan-Huron because there’s no almost no difference in the levels on Lake Erie

173

174

175

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

or Lake St. Clair

174

175

176

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Nav Benefits of Current Alternatives

Net Benefits77A 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 55M49 Bal1 PP

1-Sup $0.00 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002-MH $0.00 $0.16 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.093-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.004-E $0.00 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.015-S-MH $0.00 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.22 -$0.16 -$0.58 -$0.22 -$0.436-S-MH-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07 -$0.03 -$0.057-S-MH-StC-E $0.00 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.21 -$0.60 -$0.13 -$0.578-MH-StC $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.019-MH-StC-E $0.00 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.0910-StC-E $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$0.00 -$0.18 -$0.19 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.21 -$0.17 -$1.74 -$0.48 -$1.25

Rank 1 5.5 9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 2 13 11 12

Things to notice

2. Some difference, not a lot, on shipments through the St. Marys River, where regulation plans can make a difference. Notice that preproject and 55Mod 48 are the worst.3. Plan 130 is the second ranked plan, and not much

better than Plan 129, which is ranked 10th.

SVM first slimmed down, removing all calculations outside of commercial navigation

Two plan structure reduced to one plan Several variations on CN Subroutes

worksheet defined to find when, where and why costs went up

Analyzing the potential for nav benefits

Conn Channel finds the connecting channel depth

Conn Channel finds the connecting channel depth

East dock does just on of the many things CN SubRoutes does, it calculates the depth of water at the eastern dock for each trip category each month.

CN SubRoutes calculates cost for each trip category each month by finding the controlling depth for that month, then looking up the cost for that depth on CN Costs

And then cause looks at all three and fingers the body of water that was the shallowest along each trip. All the “Ds” here represent Lake Superior. Of course, these are trips on just Lake Superior, so that’s no surprise.

Here are trips between Lakes Michigan-Huron and Lake Superior showing both Cs (Michigan-Huron) and Ds (Lake Superior). What you don’t see are lot of Ls, Ms or Ns (SW Pier, US Slip, and Rock Cut)

Incr Costs calculates the difference between the costs each month, each trip and the lowest possible cost for that trip and month. The minimum costs are calculated on “Min Costs”.

Knowing for each month and trip category which body of water limits loading can provide a statistical portrait of what’s driving costs

Putting it together

Number of times a lake or connecting channel is the limiting factorRoutes Superior SW Pier US Slip Rock Cut MH Detroit R LSC (cc) LSC dock St Clair R Erie1-Sup 4,251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-MH 0 0 0 0 41,202 0 0 0 0 03-StC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 0 04-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,0465-S-MH 5,769 2,074 245 525 11,334 0 0 0 0 06-S-MH-StC 109 539 11 1 0 0 0 1,969 532 07-S-MH-StC-E 10,305 2,290 56 4 0 0 8 0 3,455 8,9528-MH-StC 0 0 0 0 2,280 0 0 4,914 109 09-MH-StC-E 0 0 0 0 29,189 0 7 0 4,555 17,47910-StC-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 0 0 4,917

Violet shading indicates routes affected by Lake Superior or St. Marys River

Loads for trips from Lake Superior to Michigan-Huron are affected most often by depths at the Lake Michigan dock, then the Lake Superior dock, and some at the SW Pier (not much at U.S. Slip or Rock Cut)

Putting it together



There aren’t many trips to or from Lake St. Clair There are many trips between Lake Superior and Lake

Erie (these include trips beyond Erie),most limited by Lake Superior or Lake Erie dock depths. Again, some at SW Pier, not many at US Slip or Rock Cut.

Putting it together



In the 109 years of simulated 77A water levels, navigation costs range from $2,816,290,162 to $2,955,652,867, a difference of 5%.

That includes shipments that go through the St Marys and those that do not.

Does a good navigation year mean Lake Superior was high? St. Marys River flows were high?

Best and worst navigation years

Ranked each year – average water levels in Superior, MH, flows in St Marys and Costs.

Rank 1 = highest for water, lowest for costs Best year was 1988, worst year was 1966

Cost and level correlations


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Flow

rank

Cost Rank

St. Marys rank vs. Cost Rank

Lowest cost year (1) left

Highest flows (1) bottom

Some high flow years have low costs

And some have high costsSome low flow years have high costsAnd a couple low flow years have low costs

y = 0.4319x + 31.239R² = 0.1864

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Flow

rank

Cost Rank

R2 = 0.19


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Flow

rank

Cost Rank


y = 0.4319x + 31.239R² = 0.1864

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Flow

rank

Cost Rank

R2 = 0.19

y = 0.8442x + 8.4969R² = 0.7112

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150

Superior

rank

Cost Rank

Superior rank vs. Cost Rank

R2 = 0.71


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Flow

rank

Cost Rank


y = 0.4319x + 31.239R² = 0.1864

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Flow

rank

Cost RankR2 = 0.19 y = 0.8442x + 8.4969R² = 0.7112

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150

Superior

rank

Cost Rank

Superior rank vs. Cost Rank

R2 = 0.71

y = 0.9833x + 0.8838R² = 0.9653

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

MH

rank

Cost Rank

MH vs. Cost Rank

R2 = 0.97

What makes a good plan better?. Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits.

Documents

Transcript of What makes a good plan better?. Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits.