AOML Research Review Postmortem

Robert Atlas

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

March 29, 2011

Welcome and introduction

Dr. Robert M. Atlas, Director

The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory conducts a basic and applied research program that seeks to understand the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics and processes of the ocean and atmosphere, both separately and as a coupled system. The principal focus of these investigations is to provide knowledge that will ultimately lead to improved prediction and forecasting of severe storms, better utilization and management of marine resources, better understanding of the factors affecting both climate and environmental quality, and improved ocean and weather services for the nation.

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory4301 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, Florida 33149http://www.aoml.noaa.gov

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NOAA established the 10-year Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project in May 2007.

Considers key recommendations from:– Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (NOAA Science Advisory

Board)– National Science Foundation/National Science Board (NSB)– Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM)

Considered the direction of Congressional language introduced to establish the National Hurricane Research Initiative

– S.931 – HR.2407

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1. Reduce track error by 50% at all lead times.2. Reduce intensity error by 50% at all lead

times.3. Increase the Probability of Detection and

reduce the False Alarm Ratio of rapid intensification events.

4. Extend the lead time to 7 days.

OBJECTIVES

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How to get there…Improve numerical model guidance

Optimize use of new and existing observing systems

Expand and improve forecaster tools and applications