VICTORIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: Master Plan 2012 yyj master plan_08oct2014.pdf · VICTORIA...

VICTORIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: Master Plan 2012

Prepared for

Victoria Airport Authority

Prepared by

InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. with EBA Engineering &

Stantec

February 2013

Victoria International Airport Master Plan

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Executive Summary

The Victoria International Airport Master Plan charts the course for airport development over the next 20 years.

Aviation Context

Passengers

Passenger traffic at YYJ declined during the early 2000s, partially as a result of economic recession (in 2001) and the September 11th terrorist attacks, reaching a low of 1.1 million in 2002. Traffic picked up in 2003 as the economy improved, reaching a high of over 1.5 million passengers in 2008. Growth between 2002 and 2008 averaged 5.7% per annum, with strong growth in domestic, transborder and international passenger traffic. Since the 2008 recession, total passenger traffic declined by -2.5% to 1.5 million in 2011.

Domestic. Domestic traffic is dominant at YYJ, accounting for about 81% of total traffic in 2011. Domestic traffic includes service to Vancouver, Kelowna, Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto. Domestic traffic has declined from 2008 to 2011, by an average annual growth rate of 1.6%. In 2008 domestic traffic reached a high with 1.3 million domestic passengers.

Transborder. Transborder (Canada-U.S.) traffic is the second largest market at YYJ, accounting for 17% of total passenger traffic in 2011. The airport currently has scheduled service to Seattle/Tacoma, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Honolulu and Phoenix. Over the last 15 years, transborder traffic more than doubled from 124,000 in 1997 to 254,000 in 2011, an average growth rate of 4.9% per annum.

International. The international traffic segment at YYJ made up about 2% of total traffic in 2011. Currently, international traffic includes passengers flying to/from Cancun or Puerto Vallarta in Mexico. International traffic fluctuated heavily over the last 15 years. In total, it grew by 178% from 1997 to 2011, an average annual growth rate of 7.1% per annum.

Aircraft Movements

In 2011, YYJ handled a total of 138,000 aircraft movements. The largest component of aircraft movements is commercial air carriers, which accounted for 48% of total movements in 2011. Between 2008 and 2011, total aircraft movements declined by 20% (5.5% per annum, on average). Air carriers and other commercial aircraft movements declined the most during that time, by 18% and 53%, respectively. Some of this decline is a result of increased average aircraft size and increasing passenger load factors.


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Passenger Projections

Unique passenger projections were prepared for this project. The Most Likely, Low and High forecasts for total air passengers at YYJ are provided in Figure ES-1. Highlights of the Most Likely forecast:

Moderate to low growth is projected for 2012 due in large part to the fact that carriers seat capacities are not scheduled to increase and economic growth forecast is low.

Traffic growth is projected to be strongest in 2013, 2014, and 2015 of the forecast period, due to an expected Bounce back from the economic recession and development of new air services in the domestic, transborder and international markets as identified in the Air Service Development Strategy.

After 2015, growth is projected to attenuate slowly.

Over the entire forecast period (2011-31), total passenger traffic is forecast to average 2.7% per annum.

Figure ES-1: Total Historical and Forecast E/D Passengers at YYJ, 2001-2031

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2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

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Airside System

Current Facilities

The Most Likely aircraft movement forecast projects total runway movement demand in 2031 to be approximately 182,500 runway movements. Of the total, just under 90,000 are air carrier itinerant operations, representing just 40% of the available runway capacity. By the end of the planning period, total operations are forecast to represent approximately 84% of the practical annual capacity. While this represents a reasonable buffer from the 218,500 capacity, peak hour delays may be evident at this demand level. As YYJs air carrier business grows together with the possibility of expanded long range operations on Runway 09-27, it will also become increasingly important to secure and preserve capacity for passenger operations.

Airside Recommendations

Figure ES-2 highlights the phases of the airfield over the planning period including

Short Term: 2012-2016

The short term five-year plan for YYJs airside development is centered on runway length and apron capacity and includes:

Phase 1 extension of Runway 09-27 to 7,600 feet. Extension of Taxiway E west to the threshold of Runway 09. Expansion of Apron IV west to allow more overnight and remote parking. Development of a de-icing facility to the west of Apron IV.

Medium Term: 2017-2021

The medium term airside development includes:

Expansion of Apron IV North (Code E Taxi lane). Extension of Code E Taxiway E east to the new threshold of Runway 27. Apron IV Reconstruction East. Option to widen Taxiway S (Code E).

Long Term: 2021-2026

Long Term Airside development includes:

Modified Exit at Taxiway G. Modified Exit at Taxiway S. Modified Exit at Taxiway W. Modified Exit at Runway 13-31.

Ultimate: 2027-2031

Ultimate Expansion Includes:

Extension of Runway 09-27 to 8,450 feet. Taxiway G Extension to Apron IV (Close Taxiway D). Expansion of apron IV east. New optional parallel taxiway between Runway 03-21 and 13-31, north of Runway 09-27. New optional parallel taxiway between Taxiway N and Runway 03-21 north of Runway 09-27.


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Figure ES-2: Short, Mid, Long and Ultimate Term Airfield Improvements at YYJ


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Air Terminal Building

Existing Facilities

The existing ATB is well regarded for its passenger friendly services and facilities. However, as the airport experiences passenger growth, capacity and delay concerns, particularly in the passenger pre-board screening area and other passenger processing areas are becoming evident. Specifically, the baggage arrivals area is moving towards congestion from passenger growth and a large number of meeters and greeters. The post security retail concession area is also restricted and undersized for the current volume of departing passengers.

In addition, the circulation to and from the upper holdroom is convoluted. The space and facilities on the upper level are not comparable to the main level. According to International Air Transportation Association (IATA) Level of Service B, the airside circulation area (combined lower and upper levels) is somewhat undersized and the airside retail is significantly undersized.

Proposed Expansion

Over the 20-year study period, the following expansion is envisioned to support expanded traffic. The following diagrams illustrate growth in five-year increments, however expansion would be triggered only by actual growth in traffic.

2012 2016

Expansion of passenger pre-board screening to allow for four screening lines (currently three) with additional floor space to add a fifth screening line when required.

The addition of new escalators and elevator to consolidate the circulation to the upper holdroom and bridged gates.

Expansion and improvement of the airside retail and food and beverage. Additional seating capacity in the upper holdroom. Upgrade the upper holdroom to commensurate with the qualities of the existing main floor of

the ATB. 2017 2021

Expansion of CBSA, including a fifth Primary Inspection Line desk. Expansion to allow for five baggage belts. Relocation of the car rental kiosks to the parking lot to accommodate meeter/greeter

circulation. Extension of the pier to accommodate additional ground loading passengers. Addition of seating area and washrooms in the upper holdroom. Addition of fifth bridge to the west. Double airside corridor for passenger segregation. Adaptation of the check-in hall for new self-serve kiosks. Additional airline support at the ramp and second level. Additional curb length on the landside of the ATB frontage. 2022 2026

Provision of the fifth pre-board screening line (assuming current technology). Relocation / expansion of the upper holdroom washrooms. Expansion of the landside lounge on level one and the upper holdroom seating areas. Expansion and adaption of the Eagles Landing Observation Deck to an airside lounge.


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2027 2031

International or US Pre-Clearance passenger processing and holdroom facilities to the west. Extension of the pier northwards for additional ground loading capacity. Expansion of the Domestic Check-in Hall to the east (provisional). Addition of the sixth bridge to the east (dependent on aircraft fleet mix). The potential addition of an airport hotel to the east. Expansion for additional baggage facilities as required.


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Figure ES-3: Existing Victoria International Airport Terminal Layout


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Figure ES-4: Victoria International Airport Terminal Layout 2016


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Parking

There is sufficient land available adjacent to the existing at-grade long-term parking lot to provide additional parking spaces to meet the projected parking requirements over the 20 year planning period without the need to introduce a multi-level parkade.

Environment

The Noise Exposure Forecast (NEF) is the officially recognized metric used in Canada for airport noise assessment. It was designed to encourage compatible land uses in the vicinity of airports, and to predict human annoyance to airport operations within noise zones.

The NEF calculates the sound generated by individual aircraft types expected to operate at the airport, and adjusts for the number of operations that are forecast to occur. Due to the higher social impacts of night time noise, aircraft movements at night are factored to have 16.7 times the impact of daytime movements. These contours designate areas of equal noise exposure and thereby provide information to assist in planning for compatible land uses. Since the computer-generated result is a compendium of factors, it cannot be directly related to measured noise.

Generally, three contours are generated to delineate areas of individual noise ranges (greater than NEF 40, NEF 35-40, and NEF 30-35).1 At extended distances from aircraft flight paths, ambient noise levels typically dominate.

Noise contours, in conjunction with a set of guidelines, are to be used to encourage compatible land use in the vicinity of the airport site. The Transport Canada guidelines, Land Use in the Vicinity of Airports, 8th Edition, 2005, provide community response predictions by noise contour ranges.

Good planning practice considers aircraft noise exposed to land around airports to ensure that noise disturbances are minimized within the airport community. For YYJ, two noise exposure maps show the existing noise levels and forecast noise to 2018. The noise exposure forecast considers current and forecast airport operations (with the exclusion of military operations), traffic and aircraft fleet changes to 2018. It is good to note that with advances in technology, aircraft engines are expected to operate quieter than their predecessors. This would influence the general shape of airport land/areas exposed to a degree of noise. In addition to the NEF contours, the maps highlight areas of consistent noise exposure which occurs outside of the contours. These areas include both the helicopter training and flight circuit zones.

1 Transport Canada requires that NEF maps depict the 40, 35, and 30 contours. No other contours are required. (TP1247E, page 3).


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Figure ES-8: 2013 (Existing) Noise Contours at YYJ

Figure ES-9: 2018 NEF at YYJ


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Land Use

The proposed 2012-2031 Airport Land Use Plan incorporates a more strategic approach to future airport land development through re-evaluation of land use areas. It is recommended that the airport adopt the proposed land use area changes in order to simplify the flexibility in pursuing a wide-range of commercial and airside development opportunities.

The following represents the land uses at YYJ:

Aviation services: this category includes a wide variety of aviation and industrial business uses.

Aviation services DND: similar to the previous category, a separate area has been identified for the Department of National Defense.

Business park: this area is meant for new and diverse businesses including manufacturing, research develop and other office related uses.

Commercial area: this area of land use is primarily reserved for financial institutions, hotels, restaurants, educational facilities and other small offices.

Runway system: this is reserved to protect aircraft operations and other facilities directly related to aviation such as navigational aids and radars.

Air terminal reserve: this area is reserved for the expansion of the ATB.

Airport reserve: this area is reserved for the future development related to long term operational viability and growth of the airport.

Environmental protection zones: these are protected areas that are environmental sensitive.

Industrial: this area is intended for light and medium industrial land uses.

2012 2031 Airport Land Use Plan

The long-term Airport Land Use Plan is shown in and Figure ES-10. The diagram builds upon the existing land use layout, taking into account a more targeted approach to commercial and airside land development put forward in this document.


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Figure ES-10: Long Term Land Use Plan at YYJ

Victoria International Airport Master Plan 2012

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Implementation

Infrastructure Planning

Phasing of development will rely on several key factors over the planning period. The main planning drivers for key developments associated with the expansion of airside systems and the air terminal building depend on peak hour passenger growth and aircraft movements. Understanding the phases of developments will prepare VAA in finding sources of funding for the development requirements over the short, medium and long term planning periods. The list below highlights key capital projects for the airport to meet forecast passenger and aircraft movement growth. These phases are not married to the specific timeline and should be triggered by passenger and aircraft movement demand as it occurs.

Short Term: 2012-2016

Phase 1 extension of Runway 09-27 to 7,600 feet. Extension of Taxiway E west to the threshold of Runway 09. Expansion of Apron IV west to allow more overnight and remote parking. Development of a de-icing facility at apron IV. Expansion of passenger pre-board screening to allow for four screening lines (currently three)

with additional floor space to add a fifth screening line when required. The addition of new escalators and elevator to consolidate the circulation to the upper

holdroom and bridged gates. Expansion and improvement of the airside retail and food and beverage. Additional seating capacity in the upper holdroom. Upgrade the upper holdroom to commensurate with the qualities of the existing main floor of

the ATB. Expansion of car rental, taxi, employee, short term and long term parking areas. New isolated parking area required for long term parking expansion and adjustments to the

east overflow parking.

Medium Term: 2017-2021

Expansion of Apron IV north (Code E taxi lane). Extension of Taxiway E east to match the 7,600 feet runway extension. Apron IV Reconstruction east. Option to widen Taxiway S (Code E). Expansion of CBSA, including a fifth Primary Inspection Line desk. Expansion for five baggage belts, including space for a sixth. Relocation of the car rental kiosks to the parking lot. Extension of the pier to accommodate additional ground loading passengers. Addition of seating area and a fifth bridge in the upper holdroom. Adaptation of the check-in hall for new self-serve kiosks. Additional curb length on the landside frontage. Expansion of the car rental, taxi, employee, short term and long term parking areas. Car rental booths relocated from inside the ATB and a transit coach facility developed. Consideration of shuttle bus for passenger transportation from extremities of the parking lots.


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Long Term: 2022-2026

Modified Exit at Taxiway G. Modified Exit at Taxiway S. Modified Exit at Taxiway W. Modified Exit at Runway 13-31. An optional sixth bridge dependant on demand and the mix of aircraft using the apron versus

bridged aircraft. Expansion of the level one landside lounge and upper holdroom seating. Expansion and adaption of the Eagles Landing Observation Deck to an airside lounge. Expansion of car rental, employee, short and long term parking areas.

Ultimate: 2027-2031

Extension of Runway 09-27 to 8,450 feet. Taxiway G Extension to Apron IV (Close Taxiway D). Expansion of Apron IV east. New optional parallel taxiway between Runway 03-21 and 13-31, north of Runway 09-27. New optional parallel taxiway between Taxiway N and Runway 03-21 north of Runway 09-27. International or US pre-clearance passenger processing facilities to the west. The potential addition of an airport hotel to the east. Expansion of the eastern check in baggage facilities and support spaces. Expansion of the car rental, taxi, short and long term parking areas. Shuttle bus service would transport passengers to and from the parking spaces located

towards the extremities of the parking lots.

Capital Planning

The following costs represent high level planning estimates for future proposed developments over the planning period for the airfield improvements and terminal building. These estimates are Class D level of estimates and should only be used for planning purposes. The proposed developments are linked to passenger and aircraft forecasts over the planning period and should be developed as triggered by demand. Table ES-1 provides a summary of forecast cost for future airfield improvements and Table ES-2 summarizes the forecast cost of terminal improvements at YYJ. Table ES-3 provides a summary of forecast cost for groundside parking improvements while Table ES-4 summarizes the total capital planning costs for the Master Plan period. The airport has additional capital plans more operational in nature such as mobile fleet, revenue generating land investments, utilities and infrastructure requirements which are not highlighted within the following tables.


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Table ES-1: Summary of Forecast Cost for Future Airfield Improvements at YYJ

Proposed Airside Infrastructure 2012-2016 2017-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031

Overlay $7,505,000

Taxiway E Extension * $2,487,000

Runway 09-27 Ext. to 7,600 ft./taxiway E (west) $8,152,000

Apron IV Expansion West (Concrete Surface) $7,051,000

De-Icing Facility/Code E Taxilane $4,800,000

Expand Apron IV North (Code E Taxilane) $3,183,000

Taxiway G Extension to Apron IV (Close Taxiway D) $3,174,000

Apron IV Reconstruction East (Concrete Surface) $2,904,000

Widen Taxiway S (Code E) optional $4,149,000

Modified Exit at Taxiway G $2,174,000

Modified Exit at Runway 13 Fillet $293,000

Modified Exit at Taxiway S $1,019,000

Modified Exit at Taxiway W $1,668,000

New Parallel Taxiway (Rwy 03-21-Twy N) optional $2,369,000

Apron IV Expansion East $6,663,000

New Parallel Taxiway (rwy 03/21-rwy 13/31) optional $4,609,000

Extension of Runway 27 (East) * $14,000,000

COST FORECAST SUMMARY $29,995,000 $13,410,000 $5,154,000 $27,641,000

*From Previous Estimates Includes 10% Contingencies. All others include 35% Contingencies

Table ES-2: Summary of Forecast Cost for Future Terminal Building Improvements at YYJ

Proposed Terminal Expansion and Upgrades 2012-2016 2017-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031

Terminal Upgrading & Vertical Core Addition $8,100,000

Terminal Expansion - CBSA, Airline support,Arrivals / Bag hall / Baggage, Holdroom Level 1 North, Holdroom Level 2 West,Twinned walkway, Washrooms Level 2 West, 5th Gate added (ADB).

$52,947,000

Car Rental Building $1,425,000

Terminal Expansion - New airside lounge, Holdroom Level 2 East, Washrooms Level 2 East, Eagles Landing expansion.

$6,201,000

Terminal Expansion - US / International departures, Holdroom Level 1 North, Holdroom Level 2 West,Retail Level 2, East Gate, Level 2 East, Check-in Level 1 North.

$44,838,000

COST FORECAST SUMMARY $8,100,000 $54,372,000 $6,201,000 $44,838,000

Notes: 1) This matrix illustrates the buildup of costs from the hard construction through to the total estimated project costs. 2) Unit costs for each phase may vary according to the location and type of construction. 3) This is a Class D estimate. 4) Baggage system modifications and apron dry bridge are not included. 5) GST is not included. 6) All costs are in 2012 dollars.


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Table ES-3: Summary of Forecast Cost for Future Groundside Parking Improvements at YYJ

Proposed Groundside Infrastructure

2012-2016 2017-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031 Additional

Stalls Total Stalls

Taxi Parking Lot $10,000 12 49

Long Term Parking Lot $2,850,000 319 1,430

Car Rental Parking Lot $625,000 75 465

Employee Parking Lot $25,000 44 254

Short Term Parking Lot $25,000 36 206

Parking Ticket Infrastructure $50,000

Total $3,585,000




Employee Parking Lot $25,000 40 294

Short Term Parking Lot $25,000 32 238

Transit Coach Parking $400,000

Covered Walkways & Shelters $100,000

Car Rental Booth Inc. elsewhere

Total $3,485,000

Taxi Parking Lot 61



Employee Parking lot $25,000 40 334

Short Term parking lot $25,000 32 270


Parking Ticketing Infrastructure $50,000

Total $3,300,000




Employee Parking lot $25,000 46 380

Short Term parking lot $100,000 39 309


Parking Ticketing Infrastructure $100,000

Total $3,635,000

Note: The total stalls numbers for the long term do not include the overflow parking, but the total number of parking stalls (long term plus remaining overflow at each horizon) add up to the figures that were agreed as the basis for expansion on projected passenger figures.


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Table ES-4: Summary of Total Cost for Future Improvements at YYJ

2012-2016 2017-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031

Grand Total $41,680,000 $71,267,000 $14,655,000 76,114,000


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Table of Contents

Executive Summary......................................................................................................................... i

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 Airport History ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Airport Role and Location .................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Airport Master Plan Process................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Strategic Context ................................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Key Planning Principles ...................................................................................................... 5 1.5

2. Air Traffic Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 6 Key Influences ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Historical Aviation Activity ................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Forecast Methodology ....................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Air Service Development Opportunity Review .................................................................. 14 2.4 Passenger Forecast .......................................................................................................... 20 2.5 Aircraft Movement Forecast .............................................................................................. 23 2.6 Peak Hour Forecast .......................................................................................................... 25 2.7

3. Airside .............................................................................................................................. 29 Key Influences ................................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Current Facilities and Airside Requirements ..................................................................... 30 3.2 Runway Capacity Assessment .......................................................................................... 35 3.3 Future Requirements ........................................................................................................ 39 3.4

4. Air Terminal Building ...................................................................................................... 45 Key Influences ................................................................................................................... 45 4.1 Existing Air Terminal Building............................................................................................ 46 4.2 Future Air Terminal Building .............................................................................................. 49 4.3

5. Ground Access and Parking ........................................................................................... 67 Key Influences ................................................................................................................... 67 5.1 Ground Access .................................................................................................................. 67 5.2 Airport Parking .................................................................................................................. 69 5.3 Summary and Recommendations ..................................................................................... 74 5.4

6. Pat Bay Seaplane Base ................................................................................................... 75

7. Airport Operations and Support ..................................................................................... 76 Key Influences ................................................................................................................... 76 7.1 Existing Infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 76 7.2

8. Environment ..................................................................................................................... 81 Key Influences ................................................................................................................... 81 8.1 Environmental Policy ......................................................................................................... 81 8.2 Environmental Management System ................................................................................ 81 8.3 Assessments and Audits ................................................................................................... 83 8.4 Noise Exposure Forecasts ................................................................................................ 85 8.5


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9. Airport Land Use ............................................................................................................. 87 Key Influences ................................................................................................................... 87 9.1 Current Long-Term Land Use Plan ................................................................................... 87 9.2 Future Land Use Planning................................................................................................. 90 9.3

10. Implementation ................................................................................................................ 94 Phasing of Developments ................................................................................................. 94 10.1 Capital Planning ................................................................................................................ 97 10.2 Economic Impact of YYJ ................................................................................................... 99 10.3

Appendix A: IATA Level of Service Space Guidelines ............................................................ 101

Appendix B: Forecasting Methodology ................................................................................... 103

Appendix C: YYJ NEF Input Data Preparation ......................................................................... 107

Appendix D: Utility and Servicing ............................................................................................. 132


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Grumman Goose at Pat Bay Airport circa 1940.

1. Introduction

The Victoria Airport Authority (VAA) is now in its 15th year of operating and managing the Victoria International Airport (YYJ / CYYJ). The VAA looks to ensure that airport facilities and air services match the needs of the Greater Victoria Region and surrounding communities. To address this responsibility, the VAA embarked on a 20-year vision for the development of the Victoria International Airport. A comprehensive planning process has been implemented to ensure the airport authority meets its strategic objectives and the airport accommodates expected growth 20-years into the future.

This Master Plan is a working document that identifies and guides future developmental needs in a practical and sustainable manner. The planning process entails identifying future airport operations, activity, passenger forecast, airport terminal building, airside and groundside developments and its environmental impacts. Specifically, the plan highlights facilities, land use and services required to meet expected growth in air traffic over the short (5-year), medium (10-year) and long-term (20-year) planning horizons. An integral component to the planning process involves the consultation between the Airport Authority, its tenants, stakeholders and the community.

Airport History 1.1

With 1.5 million passengers enplaning/deplaning at the facility, the airport now generates benefits not only for the Greater Victoria Region itself, but to its surrounding communities. Where there is airport growth, there is a need to plan for future requirements to meet the needs of the airport, industry and the community.

To understand the rationale for the Master Plan, it is first important to understand key dynamics that have shaped YYJ throughout its 70 plus-year history.

In 1930, a private airport owned by British Columbia Airways Ltd, located on the southeastern portion of Vancouver Island started the humble beginning of air services in Victoria. Before the establishment of the airport, air travel was only available via float plane.

By the late 1930s the Department of Transport realized the need for a large military airport on southern Vancouver Island, and it was determined that Sidney would be the site of the future Victoria International Airport. As such, the Departments of National Defence and Transport formed a joint committee and commenced construction of the airport in 1939, which was then known as Patricia Bay Airport.


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Royal Aircraft Factory Circa 1940

The airport was ready for use in the 1940s and the runways were reinforced and extended in 1942. During this time the airport accommodated the Royal Canadian Air Force, the Royal Air Force, and the Royal Canadian Navy. The airport became a base for bomber reconnaissance and fighter units, and was the home of two operational training units. The RCAF left the airport in 1952.

Scheduled passenger service commenced at the airport in 1942 when the Department of National Defence granted Trans-Canada Airlines permission to use the airport for scheduled service to Vancouver. By 1944, Seattle was added to the route which resulted in eight daily flights to the airport by 1946.

In 1947 areas to the east of the airport were set aside by the Department of National Defence in order to commence civil utilization of the airport. Soon after in 1948, the airport was transferred to Transport Canada where a temporary airport license was granted for civil operations.

By the mid-1950s the airport reached 77,000 aircraft movements and the seaplane base located to the west was reactivated. In 1959, the airport was renamed to its current name of Victoria International Airport.

Extensive airfield improvements were made during the 1960s and 70s by Transport Canada to extend Runway 08-26 to 7,000 feet and an ILS (Instrument Landing System) was installed on the Runway 26 approach path. In 1964, a new terminal building was constructed and expanded in 1987 to accommodate significant increases in passenger traffic. In 1979 the main Runway designation was changed to 09-27 as it is commonly referred to today.

Following continued growth in the 1980s, the federal government began a process of devolving airports to local not-for-profit authorities in the 1990s. In 1997, Transport Canada transferred YYJ to the Victoria Airport Authority to operate under a 60 year lease with an option of a 20 year extension. Over the past 15 years, the Airport Authority began the process of renovating and expanding the passenger terminal in order to meet passenger growth demand. Between 2002 and 2005 a new airside holdroom, arrivals rotunda and a new departure areas was constructed.

In 2011, annual passenger volumes rose to 1.5 million. The airport is the Provinces second busiest airport in terms of aircraft movements with 137,589 movements recorded.


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Airport Role and Location 1.2

YYJ serves the Greater Victoria Region and surrounding areas. The role of the airport is to meet the current and forecast demand for aviation services of the region and support the regions important economic sectors such as tourism, technology and education.

The airport is designated within the National Airport System (NAS) under the National Airports Policy. YYJ connects other NAS airports together in a network, and maintains Canadas domestic prosperity and international competitiveness.

The airport also accommodates the market demand for commercial air services, linking its community to other major hubs in the west (i.e., Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary) as well as provide charter services to southern destinations and regional aviation services (i.e., local and private services) for the Greater Victoria Region.

The City of Victoria is situated on the southern tip of Vancouver Island as shown in Figure 1-1. YYJ is situated between Sidney and North Saanich, BC, and is located about 24 kilometres north of downtown Victoria.

Figure 1-1: Victoria International Airport Location

YYJ is comprised of approximately 1,198 acres of land that is held in fee simple by Transport Canada. Local road networks surrounding the airport help circulate local and airport traffic. These roads include: Willingdon Road, Canora Road, Ocean Ave West, Mills Road, and McDonald Park Road. Land use surrounding the airport is predominantly residential, with a small manufacturing base to the northeast.

YYJ is for public use and it operates day and night using Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and Instrument Flight Rules (IFR). The air traffic control tower is owned by NAV CANADA and operates 18 hours per day from 06:00 to 00:00 daily. After hours, the airspace surrounding the airport is managed by


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the Kamloops Flight Service Station (FSS). The air terminal building is open for business from 03:30 to 01:30 daily.

Figure 1-2: Birds Eye View of Victoria International Airport

Airport Master Plan Process 1.3

The airport master planning process is an integrated approach used to identify the long-term vision and goals for the airport. This planning process typically follows five steps (illustrated below) and results in a comprehensive planning document spanning over 5-, 10- and a 20-year time frame. For YYJ, this Master Plan will be used to guide airport operations and development to 2031.

Figure 1-3: Airport Master Planning Process

Key planning principles were developed that led to a set of forecasts and options/needs analyses. This material was reviewed iteratively between the consulting team, Airport Consultative Committee, airport stakeholders, and presented to the VAA Board of Directors to discuss key decision points in developing the airport Master Plan.


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Strategic Context 1.4

In 2011, YYJ was the 10th busiest airport in Canada with 1.5 million passengers and offered over 60 daily flights to various North American destinations. To sustain and improve current levels of service, the Master Plan document is developed to strategically guide future growth and operations at YYJ. Specifically, the document focuses on maximizing the efficiency of land available for airside and groundside facilities to minimize any greenfield development.

Global economic performance directly affects the airline industry. To this end in the coming years, the Canadian market will likely outpace the US market in the short-term. Europe will lag behind North America, followed by Japan. China and India will continue to be strong contenders for growth. Similarly, advancement in aircraft technology will influence the efficiency of aircraft, their range and noise impacts affecting the community. Growth in regional carrier competition and anticipated regional aircraft size is expected and will cause apron congestion at YYJ. Future fleet changes (i.e., WestJet entering the regional market in 2013 -2014), will cause a shift in airport facility and operational requirements to handle the new aircraft.

The airport has significant market opportunities that can build upon its key strengths. However, in order to deal with these opportunities (i.e., charter traffic to/from Europe) it needs to address some constraints and challenges resulting from the size of the site, terrain, as well as infrastructure needs to meet future growth. At the same time, the airport also needs to retain flexibility to deal with volatility in its operating environment while recognizing potential threats such as competition from other airports (i.e., Comox). Another such threat is cross border competition. While the rest of the country is experiencing cross border competition, it is estimated that there is a leakage of 9.3% of annual passengers to U.S. airports such as Bellingham and Seattle-Tacoma International. However the airport is working with airlines to keep passenger related fees low.

Key Planning Principles 1.5

The following principles were developed to guide the planning process. The 2012 Master Plan for YYJ aims to:

Guide the development for high quality airport facilities in a safe and cost effective manner.

Support the achievement of the airport authoritys sustainability objectives (social, economic and environmental).

Ensure the capability and flexibility to meet future changes in air transportation, technology and operations.

Promote economic growth through aviation, aerospace and tourism development and other transportation related initiatives.

Maintain a low cost structure while meeting customer demand and satisfaction.


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2. Air Traffic Forecasts

Forecast of aviation activity for an airport is an integral component of the master planning process. Not only do they provide insight to future airport activity over time, but they help identify capital projects required for airports to seek appropriate funds to meet future demand. These aviation forecasts specifically include projected passenger growth, aircraft movements and peak hour operations over the planning period.

The following chapter discusses factors that influence aviation activity and look forward to identify potential market and future traffic at YYJ to 2031.

Key Influences 2.1

There are several key influences that affect aviation activity over time. These influences are commonly linked to regional socio-economic factors, which include population and economic growth, and tourism developments. These factors are commonly driven by the global economic outlook and have a direct effect on the aviation industry and its future. Specifically to YYJ, these socio-economic factors pertain to the regional Gross Domestic Product, economic growth, and the tourism industry

Gross Domestic Product 2.1.1

The demand for YYJ air service is directly related to the economic health of British Columbia. As shown in Figure 2-1 , the past 10 years shows some volatility for B.C. but an overall growth.

Figure 2-1: British Columbia and Canada Real Annual GDP Growth Rates, 2002-2011

Source: Statistics Canada

3.6%

2.3%

3.6%

4.7%

4.1%

3.0%

0.7%

-2.1%

3.0%

2.2%

2.9%

1.9%

3.1% 3.0%2.8%

2.2%

0.7%

-2.8%

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rea

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February 2013

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The B.C. economy grew faster than the country as a whole, and shrunk by less during the global financial crisis that started in 2008.2 The economic forecast for Victoria is projected for moderate growth over the next three years. The Conference Board of Canada anticipates an economic growth of 1.9% in 2012 and about 2.6% from 2013 to 2015.3 Tourism, technology and education are the largest industries that influence the local economy in Victoria. A collaborative effort between tourism and other industries has formed a strategy for sustaining their economy. This collaborative effort has been fostered in the region, to ensure that future economic growth is achieved while protecting the environment, maintaining quality of life and social well-being. The focus of this economic strategy for Victoria is built on key initiatives that include strengthen tourism, high tech hub, improved business conditions and regional transportation choices.

Tourism 2.1.2

Tourism is a significant economic driver in Victoria and the airport plays a major role in the industry. In 2010, the tourism industry in BC contributed about 4% to the total provincial GDP and employed about 127,000 people, with 14,000 employed in the accommodation and food services industry.4 Tourism is an estimated $1.9 billion industry within the Greater Victoria Region through direct, indirect and induced spending.

Trends in the tourism product in the Greater Victoria Region will undoubtedly have an impact on the demand for air travel.

Technology 2.1.3

The technology sector is one of the fastest growing employers in the Greater Victoria Region and it is the leading economic generator in the region. In recent years, the industry has grown to over 900 companies in the region, employing approximately 13,000 workers, and totalling an economic impact in excess of $2.6 billion. Together, these firms represent the second highest concentration of technology companies in B.C. and have a rate of growth surpassing the provincial average.

Technology companies in the Greater Victoria Region comprise of a large variety of firms, including Abebooks.com, Carmanah Technologies Corporation, Vifor Pharma Aspreva, Schneider Electric and Cebas Visual Technologies. Tech companies depend on efficient air access to:

Connect businesses with potential customers and investors.

Advance order fullfillment to customers for parts/finished goods.

Cities that can provide efficient and cost effective air services can access supply chains that are not integral for global competitiveness. The selection of aircraft to serve the market is undoubtedly a key driver to the supply of uplift, as are routes for direct, one step or two step connections.

2Greater Victoria Development Agency, http://www.gvda.ca/EN/main/business/strong-economy.html

3 VIATEC: Victorias Economy Rises Slowly, Andrew A. Duffy, March 9, 2012, http://www.viatec.ca/news/2012/03/victorias-economy-rises-slowly

4 Source: BC Stats

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/statisticsbysubject/LabourIncome/EmploymentUnemployment.aspx


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Education 2.1.4

The Greater Victoria Region has three major post-secondary institutions: University of Victoria, Royal Roads University and Camosun College.

In the past, the number of education related jobs increased in the region matching the provincial growth rate, even though employment at universities in Victoria were twice as common as the provincial average. The largest source of education job growth was found in universities and the other category which includes a wide variety of specialized schools in fine arts, sports and languages.

A key interface between air travel and the educational sector is the transportation of students and academics from other regions, as well as other research/educational related travel. Air service development to support the education sector builds the economy and provides support for better facilities at YYJ.

Historical Aviation Activity 2.2

A review of historical aviation activity identifies past trends and provides the base for understanding air traffic forecasts. Trends in aviation activity will help align with air service development efforts and ensure the airport has the facilities to support forecast aviation activity. These trends are indicative of the World economic trends but reflect a continued interest in the aviation mode.

Enplaned/Deplaned (E/D) Passengers 2.2.1

Figure 2-2 shows the total enplaned/deplaned (E/D) passengers at YYJ over the last 15 years, from 1997 to 2011. Passenger traffic at YYJ declined during the early 2000s, partially as a result of the dot-com bubble burst and the September 11th terrorist attacks, reaching a low of 1,102,000 in 2002. Traffic picked up in 2003 as the economy improved, reaching a high of over 1,538,000 E/D passengers in 2008. Growth between 2002 and 2008 averaged 5.7% per annum, with strong growth in domestic, transborder and international passenger traffic. Since 2008, total passenger traffic declined by 2.5% due, in part, to the global financial crisis, reaching 1,499,792 in 2011.

Domestic

Domestic operations is the dominant sector at YYJ, accounting for 81% of total traffic in 2011. Traffic reached 1,218,000 E/D passengers in 2011, with service to markets in Vancouver, Kelowna, Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto. Traffic has declined from 2008 to 2011, by an average annual growth rate of 1.6% per annum, due, in part, to economic conditions. Overall, domestic operations fluctuated over the last 15 years, in total it grew by 26% between 1997 and 2011 (average growth of 1.5% per annum). Over the observed time period, domestic traffic reached a high in 2008 with more than 1,297,000 domestic E/D passengers.


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Figure 2-2: Historical E/D Passengers at YYJ by Market, 1997-2011

Source: Victoria Airport Authority

Transborder

Transborder traffic is the second largest traffic segment at YYJ, accounting for 17% of total passenger traffic in 2011. The airport currently has scheduled service to Seattle/Tacoma, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Honolulu and Phoenix. Over the last 15 years, transborder traffic has more than doubled from 124,000 in 1997 to 254,000 in 2011, with an average growth rate of 4.9% per annum witnessing a continued interest in winter destinations for Victorians.

International

The international traffic segment at YYJ makes up about 2% of the total traffic in 2011. Currently, international traffic includes passengers flying to/from Cancun or Puerto Vallarta Mexico. International traffic fluctuated heavily over the last 15 years. In total, international traffic grew by 178% from 1997 to 2011 with an average annual growth rate of 7.1% per annum reflecting the trend to winter destinations for Victorians.

Traffic Seasonality

Figure 2-3 presents monthly traffic levels for 2008 to 2011 at YYJ. Historically, YYJ experiences its highest traffic levels during the summer (August) and its lowest traffic levels during the winter (February). August is historically the busiest month for domestic traffic, while January is the busiest for international, and March is the busiest month for transborder traffic.

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6.6%3.8% -0.4% -1.2% -1.0%


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Figure 2-3: Monthly Historical Passenger Traffic at YYJ, 2008-2011


Aircraft Movements 2.2.2

Aircraft activity at YYJ is made up of four main categories of aircraft operations:

Commercial air carriers: scheduled and charter passenger operations, as well as freighter 1.aircraft, helicopter operations and seaplane services.

Private/Government: other civil aviation operations such as business aviation, private 2.aircraft, specialized air charters, flight training, air ambulance, seaplanes, etc.

Military: military aircraft operations, both local and itinerant. 3.

Local: civil aircraft operations in which the aircraft remains in the close proximity of the airport, 4.normally landing and taking off at the same airport. Local operations are often carried out during training flights (touch-and-go), seaplanes, equipment tests etc.

Figure 2-4 shows historical aircraft movements at YYJ from 1997 to 2011, broken down into the categories listed above. In 2011, YYJ handled a total of 138,000 aircraft movements. The largest component of aircraft movements is from commercial air carriers, which accounted for 48% of total movements in 2011. Between 2008 and 2011, total aircraft movements declined by 20% (5.5% per annum, on average). Air carriers and other commercial aircraft movements declined the most during that time, by 18% and 53%, respectively. Some of this decline is due to the depressed economy and some likely increases in average aircraft size and increasing load factors.

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Figure 2-4: Historical Aircraft Movements by Category at YYJ, 1997-2011


Over the observed time period, total aircraft movements reached a high in 1998, reaching a total of 183,000 aircraft movements (about one third more aircraft movements compared to 2011 total movements). During the peak period, YYJ enjoyed head to head competition between Air Canada and Canadian Airlines International, which was not economically sustainable.

Airline Operations 2.2.3

Airline operations at YYJ provide the region with connectivity from Victoria to local, domestic and international destinations. The airport in turn provides facilities for airline carriers to operate and deliver their services to meet their market demand. This among others entails providing airlines with available gates to match each scheduled aircraft type and size.

The market shares by passenger volume of the scheduled carriers are shown below. WestJet and Air Canada are the largest carriers at YYJ, Air Canada serving 40.9% and WestJet serving 41% of all passengers in 2011. The third largest carrier is Alaska Airlines, reaching 11.5% of total market share in 2011. Understanding future aircraft fleet mix for the top three airline carriers can provide future insight that will guide necessary development to support these and other airline carriers at YYJ.

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14.0%3.2%

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Figure 2-5: 2011 Airline Market Shares by Passengers


Figure 2-6 shows the scheduled departing seats served from YYJ in the last four years and an outlook to 2012 seats. As of 2011 the airport has scheduled service to five domestic destinations, five transborder destinations and two international destinations.

Vancouver and Calgary have the highest service frequency levels in the domestic market, offering 38% and 30%, respectively, of the total domestic seat capacities in 2011. Transborder service is offered by Alaska Airlines, United Airlines and WestJet with Alaska Airlines offering about 72% of total transborder service to Seattle/Tacoma. On the domestic and transborder side, no great changes in seat capacities are expected over the short term.

The only scheduled international service from Victoria is to sunspots in Mexico operated by WestJet (largely with Boeing 737-700s). On the charter side, Sunwing Airlines and CanJet offer seasonal service to Cancun and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

Overall, total scheduled seat capacities have not changed much over the last four years. Total domestic flights in 2012 were similar to 2008 levels, while the total transborder flights picked up slightly since 2008 in the years that follow. Overall, the total scheduled seats in 2012 are at the same level as in 2009. The following sections look forward to identify future passenger traffic, airport operations and peak operations.

WestJet41.0%

Air Canada 40.9%

Alaska11.5%

United3.8%

Pacific Coastal1.8%

Other Scheduled Airlines 0.3%

Charter0.7%


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Figure 2-6: Departing Seats from YYJ, 2008-2012 (in Thousands)

Carrier Arrival Airport 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Projected

Domestic

Air Canada Vancouver Intl 297 281 277 294 297

Toronto Pearson Intl 54 59 65 64 72

Calgary Intl 63 62 61 61 61

Total 414 402 402 419 430

WestJet Calgary Intl 178 199 198 196 199

Edmonton Intl 130 134 125 121 120

Kelowna Intl 49 54 52 49 50

Toronto Pearson Intl 33 32 32 34 24

Total 388 419 407 400 394

Pacific Coastal Vancouver Intl 53 40 32 34 22

Total 53 40 32 34 22

Sunwing Airlines Toronto Pearson Intl 2.0

Vancouver Intl 1.5

Total 3.4

Total Domestic 858 860 841 854 846

Transborder

Alaska Airlines Seattle/Tacoma Intl 135 138 138 138 139

Total 135 138 138 138 139

United Airlines San Francisco Intl 14 33 36 36 36

Total 14 33 36 36 36

WestJet Las Vegas McCarran Intl 7.1 17 13 13 15

Honolulu International 1.1 3.7 2.9 2.9

Phoenix Sky Harbor Intl

1.2 3.5

Total 7.1 18 17 17 21

Total Transborder 156 190 192 191 196

International

WestJet5 Cancun

0.4 3.5 3.7 3.6

Puerto Vallarta

1.2 3.4 3.7 3.5

Total International 1.6 6.9 7.4 7.1

Grand Total 1,015 1,052 1,039 1,052 1,049

Source: OAG Max

5 Note that Sunwing Airlines and CanJet also offer charter services to Mexico. These services do not show up in the OAG database because the OAG database only shows scheduled services.


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Forecast Methodology 2.3

Air travel is a derived demand for air transportation between origin and destination markets. This demand is derived from socio-economic interactions between these markets, shaped by carriers networks and available airlift capacity. Generally, business/trade activity, tourism/visitor activity as well as visiting friends and relatives (VFR) constitute the primary components of air travel at an airport.

Dependable forecasting practice requires awareness of uncertainties surrounding the forecasts. Considerable effort by the project team has gone into analyzing the factors affecting traffic activity at YYJ. However, as with any forecasts, there are uncertainties regarding these factors, such as the outlook for local and world economies and structure of the airline industry. A pragmatic and yet systematic approach was used to produce a set of unbiased aviation activity forecasts for YYJ. For further detail on forecasting methodology used see Appendix B.

As described in the rest of this chapter, forecasts have been produced for the following:

Enplaned and deplaned passenger traffic;

Aircraft operations; and

Peak hour.

It should be noted that the forecasts for YYJ represent unconstrained forecasts - they have been developed without consideration of the ability of the current airport facilities to handle the forecast traffic.

Air Service Development Opportunity Review 2.4

As part of the forecasting process for YYJ, a review of air service opportunities was completed to provide an alternative to the analytical approaches used. This is also used to illustrate the type of route development opportunities that underpin air traffic forecasts. The following sections provide a detailed description of this scenario based on past air service development initiative with the airport.

The air service section examines logical underserved markets and assesses the potential for increased (or decreased) service on existing routes, new carriers on existing routes, and new routes which could be operated. It should be noted that the scenario is designed to illustrate the development potential of YYJ and is not a forecast of the exact routes and carriers that will eventually operate at YYJ. In practice, some of the identified route opportunities will be realized, while some will not, and a few opportunities not identified here will be realized.

This section begins with a general discussion of the market potential of YYJ and then discusses market opportunities on specific routes.

Current Situation 2.4.1

Figure 2-7 illustrates that YYJ offers scheduled services to seven domestic destinations (i.e., Vancouver, Abbotsford, Kelowna, Nanaimo, Calgary, Edmonton, and Toronto), five transborder destinations (i.e., Seattle/Tacoma, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Honolulu and Phoenix) and two international destinations in Mexico (i.e., Cancun and Puerto Vallarta Mexico).


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Market Potential and Opportunity 2.4.2

Based on our market analysis, other industry and market factors, a number of unserved and underserved markets have been identified in Figure 2-8.

The new markets offer significant potential for development of new (or additional) direct service in the short, medium and long term.

Figure 2-7: Scheduled Routes from YYJ

Source: InterVISTAS Air Service Development Opportunity Review 2010

Figure 2-8: Unserved and Underserved Markets from YYJ

Source: Adapted from InterVISTAS Air Service Development Opportunity Review 2010

CUN

HNL

LAS

PVR

SEA

SFO

YEG

YLW

YVR YYC

YYZ

8P AC AS UA WS

Year round

Seasonal

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PHX

22

OGG

SJD

MZT

PHX DEN

LAX YWG

YYZ

YYC

YLW

YVR

LGW

FRA/DUS

SLC

Unserved Market

Codeshare Opportunity

Underserved Market

YXS

PSP

YOW

YCD


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The noted unserved/underserved markets are described in more detail in Table 2-1. As well as the market listed, there is also the potential to benefit from recent code-sharing agreements. For example, the recently signed agreement by WestJet to code share or interline with KLM, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern, Japan Airlines, Delta, American and Korean Air. Code-sharing agreements such as this provide great opportunities for YYJ.

Given the importance of WestJet at YYJ, there are a number of notable developments that will contribute to the generation of new air services. WestJets recent announcement to launch a new regional carrier using the Q400 aircraft will impact operations at YYJ. WestJets new regional carrier can possibly operate services to Vancouver as a part of their codeshare Asian strategy in addition to new services to Kelowna and Prince George.

The European market can be served by YYJ albeit with a direct service in and one-stop return service. Current aircraft operating the high passenger volume charter market would require a payload penalty in order to return non-stop to Europe under current Runway length and conditions. However, over the medium to long term it would be likely that European service would be introduced at YYJ. The two markets in consideration would be London and Germany (Frankfurt). London is the largest international market for Victoria and it is estimated that the airport can support 15,000 annual passengers with seasonal service. The German market would be support by Vancouver Islands natural setting. Germans tend to be independent travellers who value natural wilderness and there is also a competitive Germany-Canada charter market.

At this stage, Asia-Pacific service from/to YYJ is possible but rather unlikely to happen over the time horizon of the forecast. The following describes the limitations of Asian services within other markets.

When examining other airports and their Asia-Pacific services, it is unlikely that YYJ will commence service to Asia Pacific markets over the next 20 years. For example, Calgary International Airport, a much larger and higher yield market, only secured non-stop seasonal service to Asia in 2010, or Portland International Airport, again a much larger and higher yield market, only sustains less-than-daily service on a single route (i.e., Tokyo) with high subsidies to Delta. Other large western Canadian markets such as Edmonton currently do not offer any Asia-Pacific services at all.

Even though YYJ has a large Asian market, it is not a high yield market. Air Canada effectively carries all of the YYJ-Asia traffic via YVR, so the air carrier would have little motivation to serve YYJ directly. Looking at the aircraft market, Boeing 787 and A350 aircraft (which may have the economics to do YYJ-Asia profitably) will be in short supply and deployed to high-priority markets for at least the next 10 years.

Overall, the probability of YYJ-Asia-Pacific service seems unlikely (if not impossible) in the 20-year planning horizon. The first Asia-Pacific market would likely be Tokyo which has non-stop flights to more North American destinations than any other point in Asia. Charter service from/to Seoul or Beijing could also be a possibility but may be constrained due to infrastructure (i.e., runway) requirements to handle these flights.

Based on the analysis completed, the air service scenario projected frequency increases on a city-pair specific basis, for both existing and new markets. Projections were produced for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 based on the current schedule.


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The air service scenario is provided in Table 2-2, which shows the current frequency and the expected average annual frequencies. Comments on each route are also provided. As stated previously, it should be noted that the scenario is designed to illustrate the development potential of YYJ and is not a forecast of the exact routes and carriers that will eventually operate at YYJ.

The frequencies listed in this table were converted into an annual passenger forecast based on reasoned assumptions regarding aircraft size and load factors to provide a comparison with the industry and econometric model forecasts.

Table 2-1: Details of the Unserved/Underserved Markets

Sector Underserved Markets Unserved Markets

Domestic Toronto - Largest eastern Canada market. Existing service with Air Canada (year round) and WestJet (summer only)

Kelowna - Existing daily service with WestJet with a morning departure from YYJ, evening return. But it does not allow same-day business trips from Kelowna to Victoria. A second daily flight could balance schedule.

Ottawa - Large point to point market with good potential for high-yield business/governmental travel. Currently served directly with a one-stop service via YYZ but potential exists for non-stop service)

Winnipeg - Largest unserved Western Canada market. VFR connections offer low yield, but high stimulation. Intermediate hub connectivity is a challenge.

Prince George - Large point to point market with good potential high-yield business/governmental travel. Time savings from overflying YVR can also be appealing for business/government travellers.

Transborder Phoenix Popular golfing/leisure destination served by WestJet. May offer improved connections to other sunspot destinations.

Los Angeles - Largest unserved USA market for Victoria. Mix of business and leisure traffic (in/outbound).

Denver/Salt Lake City - Reasonable point-to-point market, but largest Western US connecting hub for East Coast traffic (Salt Lake City: smaller point-to-point market and smaller hub). Connecting markets complement those via SFO.

Sunspot Palm Springs - popular unserved market for Victoria. Currently served from Vancouver by WestJet.

Maui - Approximately 40% as large as YYJ-HNL market, but OGG typically supports more service than HNL. Popular higher-end sunspot destination.

Other International

London - London is the largest international market for Victoria. The airport can support 15,000 annual passengers seasonal service.


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Sector Underserved Markets Unserved Markets

Germany (Frankfurt) - Germans are independent travelers who value wilderness, which Vancouver Island provides. There is also a competitive Germany-Canada charter market. Victoria would do well in this market

Source: Adapted from InterVISTAS Air Service Development Opportunity Review 2010


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Table 2-2: New and Additional Victoria International Airport Air Services

Market Average Annual Outbound Frequency

Comments 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Existing Services

Calgary 2,637 2,658 3,545 3,910 4,379 increasing daily frequencies from 2021 onwards

Cancun 27 52 52 78 104 increasing sunspot

Edmonton 903 886 990 990 1,094 increasing service in 2021

Honolulu 21 26 52 52 78 increasing sunspot

Kelowna 365

replaced by new Q400 service in 2015

Las Vegas 89 78 78 104 104 increasing capacity in 2026

Phoenix 9 52 52 52 52 introducing full year service in 2015

Puerto Vallarta 27 26 52 78 104 increasing sunspot

San Francisco 720 720 730 730 730 increasing capacity in 2021

Seattle/Tacoma 1,818 1,861 1,825 2,190 2,555 increasing daily frequencies from 2021 onwards

Toronto 765 990 990 990 1,094 increasing service in 2015

Vancouver 8,329 6,185 6,185 6,185 6,185 decrease in service due to new Q400 services to YVR

New Services

Vancouver

730 1,095 1,095 1,460 Q400 service to YVR starting in 2014

Kelowna

730 730 913 1,095 Q400 service to YLW starting in 2015

Winnipeg

52 104 312 364 slowly introducing daily service to YWG

Los Angeles

156 260 260 364 slowly introducing service to LAX

Denver

104 260 364 year round service to DEN

Sunspot

26 52 52 52 introducing new sunspot destination

London

26 52 52 104 non-stop service introduced in 2021

Frankfurt 26 52 104 seasonal service to FRA


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Passenger Forecast 2.5

Total E/D passenger forecasts are provided, along with breakdowns into domestic, transborder and international traffic. In addition, forecasts of passenger aircraft movements and peak hour are also provided.

Total Passengers 2.5.1

The Most Likely, Low and High forecasts for total air passengers at YYJ are provided in Table 2-3 and Figure 2-9 . Highlights of the Most Likely forecast are as follows:

Moderate to low growth of 1.7% is projected for 2012 due in large part to the fact that carriers seat capacities are not scheduled to increase.

Traffic growth is projected to be strongest in 2013, 2014, and 2015 of the forecast period, due to an expected Bounce back from the economic recession and development of new air services in the domestic, transborder and international markets.

After 2015, growth is projected to attenuate slowly.

Over the entire forecast period (2011-31), total passenger traffic is forecast to average 2.7% per annum.

In addition to the Most Likely forecast, Low and High forecasts were also produced:

Low Forecast The Low forecast assumes a lower level of economic growth than the Most Likely forecast. In the Low forecast, GDP growth in BC between 2011 and 2031 averages 2.2% per annum compared with 2.5% per annum in the Most Likely Forecast. Air service development is projected to be slower with only around two thirds of new services being achieved.

The average growth rate from 2011 to 2031 for total passenger traffic in the Low forecast is 1.6% per annum compared with 2.7% in the Most Likely forecast.

High Forecast The High forecast assumes higher economic growth 2.8% per annum GDP growth in BC. The forecast projected exceed the air service development scenarios.

The average growth rates for passenger traffic in this forecast is 3.6% per annum.


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Table 2-3: Forecast of E/D Passengers at YYJ, 2011-2031

Year Low Most Likely High

2011 (Actual) 1,499,792

2012 1,479,000 1,526,000 1,579,000

2013 1,510,500 1,574,000 1,654,000

2014 1,533,000 1,628,000 1,724,000

2015 1,556,500 1,680,000 1,792,000

2016 1,586,000 1,726,000 1,858,000

2021 1,733,000 1,988,000 2,212,000

2026 1,894,000 2,268,000 2,612,000

2031 2,064,000 2,570,000 3,055,000

Annual Average Growth Rate

2011-2012 -1.4% 1.7% 5.3%

2012-2013 2.1% 3.1% 4.7%

2013-2014 1.5% 3.4% 4.2%

2014-2015 1.5% 3.2% 3.9%

2015-2016 1.9% 2.7% 3.7%

2016-2021 1.8% 2.9% 3.5%

2021-2026 1.8% 2.7% 3.4%

2026-2031 1.7% 2.5% 3.2%

2011-2031 1.6% 2.7% 3.6%


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Figure 2-9: Total Historical and Forecast E/D Passengers at YYJ, 2001-2031

Passenger Forecast by Market 2.5.2

The forecast is segregated into domestic, transborder and international passengers and is presented in Table 2-4.

The projections for 2012 show domestic traffic growing by 1.0%, relative to 2011, due to no significant seat capacity increases of the airlines. Transborder traffic is forecast to increase (by 4.4%). International traffic is up nearly 9.4%.

In the long term, the domestic market is forecast to have the lowest growth rates, averaging 2.2% per annum over the forecast period due to its relative maturity and overall size. The highest growth is forecast for the international market (at an average of 8.3% per annum), as the airport currently has only seasonal service to Mexico (sunspots). As well, it is anticipated that new service and increased service to sunspot and European destinations will develop.

Growth is also forecast in the transborder market (averaging 3.7% per annum), as new service and increased service to US destinations will develop.

Although, the domestic market is forecast to grow at the smallest rate, it will still remain the dominant market segment at YYJ, accounting for 74% of all passenger traffic in 2031 (compared with 81% in 2011).

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Table 2-4: Forecasts of E/D Passengers at YYJ by Market

Year Domestic Transborder International Total

2011 (Actual) 1,217,558 253,906 28,328 1,499,792

2012 1,230,000 265,000 31,000 1,526,000

2013 1,264,000 274,000 36,000 1,574,000

2014 1,304,000 283,000 41,000 1,628,000

2015 1,342,000 292,000 46,000 1,680,000

2016 1,375,000 301,000 50,000 1,726,000

2021 1,543,000 369,000 76,000 1,988,000

2026 1,717,000 447,000 104,000 2,268,000

2031 1,900,000 530,000 140,000 2,570,000

Annual Average Growth Rate

2011-2012 1.0% 4.4% 9.4% 1.0%

2012-2013 2.8% 3.4% 16.1% 3.1%

2013-2014 3.2% 3.3% 13.9% 3.4%

2014-2015 2.9% 3.2% 12.2% 3.2%

2015-2016 2.5% 3.1% 8.7% 2.7%

2016-2021 2.3% 4.2% 8.7% 2.9%

2021-2026 2.2% 3.9% 6.5% 2.7%

2026-2031 2.0% 3.5% 6.1% 2.5%

2011-2031 2.2% 3.7% 8.3% 2.7%

Aircraft Movement Forecast 2.6

The forecasts of aircraft movements at YYJ are presented in Table 2-5. Air carrier passenger and aircraft movements are forecast to increase, albeit at a lower rate than passenger volumes due to projected increases in average aircraft size and load factors over the forecast period. Air carrier movements are forecast to reach 67,900 by 2016 and 88,600 by 2031. Between 2011 and 2031, air carrier aircraft movements are forecast to grow by an average of 1.9%.


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Table 2-5: Forecasts of Aircraft Movements at YYJ

Year Air

Carriers Local

Movements Other

Commercial Private

Gov't - Civil/Military

Total

2011 (Actual) 60,800 55,000 5,300 14,300 2,300 137,700

2012 61,300 55,900 5,300 14,300 2,300 139,100

2013 62,600 56,700 5,300 14,300 2,300 141,200

2014 64,700 57,600 5,300 14,300 2,300 144,200

2015 66,500 58,400 5,300 14,300 2,300 146,800

2016 67,900 59,300 5,300 14,300 2,300 149,100

2021 74,500 63,300 5,300 14,300 2,300 159,700

2026 81,400 67,500 5,300 14,300 2,300 170,800

2031 88,600 72,000 5,300 14,300 2,300 182,500

Forecast Annual Growth Rates

2011-2012 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

2012-2013 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

2013-2014 3.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1%

2014-2015 2.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%

2015-2016 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%

2016-2021 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

2021-2026 1.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

2026-2031 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%

2011-2031 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

In addition to air carrier movements, other movements at YYJ include other commercial movements, private, government civil/military and local movements. Forecasts for these other types of aircraft movements were produced and are as follows:

Local Movements. Local aircraft movements were assumed to grow at a slow growth rate approximately 1.3% - 1.5% per annum up to 2031. These movements were forecast based on the Transport Canada forecasts of general aviation movements for Western Canada, taken from Transport Canada Aviation Forecasts Report 2008-2022. Transport Canada forecasts that GA movements in Western Canada will grow at an average rate of 1.5% per annum between 2008 and 2018 (based on the Transport Canada medium forecast). Local aircraft movements were assumed to grow at a similar rate to GA movements approximately 1.5% per annum up to 2018 and then slightly slowing down to 1.3% per annum.


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Other Commercial, private, government civil/military. There was no discernible trend in these types of movements over the last ten years. Therefore, these movements are assumed to remain constant at the 2011 levels. Note that given the variability exhibited by these movements in the past, and the unknown impact of the future, these forecasts should be considered order-of-magnitude forecasts only. It is anticipated there will be considerable variability in these types of movements, which is impossible to predict.

Peak Hour Forecast 2.7

The analysis of peaking characteristics is an important facet of infrastructure planning. Planning for the absolute peak demand (i.e., the greatest demand anticipated) is not generally appropriate as it will result in facilities that are impractically oversized and under-utilised, especially when one time special events are held which may create artificial peaks. In view of this, airport planners and designers have adopted various planning peak concepts which are used to determine the terminal capacity needed to meet current and future peak traffic levels. Metrics such as the 30th highest hour or the 90th percentile of the annual distribution of hourly traffic are often used to determine the optimum airport capacity. However, these measures require a lot of historical data to compile the planning peak values. Instead, a commonly accepted planning approach, used in determining the peak hour forecast is analyzing the busiest hour/peak day/peak month.

The following assumptions were made in developing the peak hour forecasts:

Airlines will generally increase the frequency of a particular flight to daily before introducing

additional flights on the same day.

Carriers will generally add frequency to existing routes before introducing flights to new

destinations.

Carriers serving high-density markets will likely expand services to other hours before

introducing additional flights in the peak period.

As peak demand increases, peak period traffic will generally spread to the shoulders of the

peak period.

The ratio of peak hour traffic over planning peak day traffic may exhibit some downward

trending as annual traffic increases.

The drop-off from peak activity levels at YYJ allows considerable scope for peak spreading.

Schedule data from January, March and August 2011 was analysed (the busiest months for international, transborder and total traffic respectively). Data for August was selected for the final analysis and the basis of the peak hour forecasts, as it was the busiest month in terms of overall passenger and passenger aircraft movements.

Table 2-6 provides a breakdown of the peak hour passengers and aircraft movements (the peak hour in passengers occurs at same time as the peak hour in movements).


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As well, Figure 2-10 and Figure 2-11 shows the rolling hourly passenger departures and arrivals experienced on most weekdays during August 2011. There are number of peak departures and arrivals during the day, largely the result of domestic operations. Traffic levels outside the peak can be considerably lower.

Table 2-6: Peak Hours

Passengers Aircraft Movements Peak Hour Aircraft

Peak Departures (0830-0930)

370 7 Ground loading: 1 x Dash 8-100 1 x Dash 8-400 1 x CRJ 1 x Beechcraft 1900 1 x Piper PA-31 Bridge loading: 2 x B737-700

Peak Arrivals (1830-1930)

400 7 Ground loading: 1 x Dash 8-300 1 x CRJ 1 x Beechcraft 1900 1 x Piper PA-31 Bridge loading: 2 x B737-700 1 x A319

Source: Based on OAG schedule data with applied load factors.


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Figure 2-10: Rolling Hourly Passenger Departures Profile for YYJ, August 2011

Source: Based on OAG Schedule Data with load factors applied.

Figure 2-11: Rolling Hourly Passenger Arrivals Profile for YYJ, August 2011

Source: Based on OAG Schedule Data with load factors applied.

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