Vetting the GENESYS Model
19
Vetting the GENESYS Model Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting Portland, Oregon June 23, 2011
description
Vetting the GENESYS Model. Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting Portland, Oregon June 23, 2011. Purpose. To ensure that the GENESYS model accurately represents how regional resources are used. Method. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Vetting the GENESYS Model
Vetting the GENESYS Model
Resource Adequacy Technical Committee MeetingPortland, Oregon
June 23, 2011
2June 7, 2011
Purpose• To ensure that the GENESYS model
accurately represents how regional resources are used.
3June 7, 2011
Method
• Validation involves checking simulated resource dispatch against actual dispatch.
• Patterns in the simulated dispatch are checked for consistency with actual dispatch patterns under various load, hydro and wind conditions.
4
How do we ensure that GENESYS accurately reflects resource operation?
• Compare historical vs. simulated hourly dispatch– For aggregate resources types (hydro, thermal, wind)– For thermal fuel types (coal, gas, nuclear)– For individual resources
• Check simulated dispatch for – Under-supply conditions– Over-supply conditions– Various wind and hydro conditions
• Adequacy Forum’s technical committee is tasked with reviewing the simulation
June 7, 2011
5
Checking Simulated Dispatch
• Check under-supply conditionsAll resources should be dispatched
• Check over-supply conditionsAll resources that can be turned off should be off
• Check individual resource dispatch– Ensure resources are dispatched in the right order (i.e. thermal
displaced first when wind picks up)– Ensure individual resource dispatch makes sense
June 7, 2011
Caveats
June 7, 2011 6
• The following slides show both simulated and actual resource dispatch • Actual resource dispatch is provided by BPA for
its balancing authority area.• Simulated resource dispatch is produced by the
GENESYS model and covers the NW region.
• The scales are quite different and the relationships of loads to resources are different as well (e.g., for BPA hydro is much bigger than load).
Check Under-Supply Conditions
8June 7, 2011
1 37 73 109 145 181 217 253 289 325 361 397 433 469 505 541 577 613 649 685 7210
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Historic Under-Supply Condition - Dec 2009
Hydro Thermal Wind Load
Hour of Month
Meg
awat
ts
Thermal picks up when loads increase
Actual Hourly Dispatch
9
Simulated Hourly Dispatch*
June 7, 2011
11
93
75
57
39
11
09
12
71
45
16
31
81
19
92
17
23
52
53
27
12
89
30
73
25
34
33
61
37
93
97
41
54
33
45
14
69
48
75
05
52
35
41
55
95
77
59
56
13
63
16
49
66
76
85
70
37
21
73
9
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000Load Therm Wind
Hour of Month (1 = 1 am day 1)
Me
ga
wa
tts
Thermal picks up when loads increase
*Not all resources are shown
10
Under-Supply Condition
June 7, 2011
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 370
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000Days 7 and 8 - Under-Supply Simulated Dispatch
Load Therm Purc Hydro Wind
Hours of Curtailment
Meg
awat
ts
All thermal resources dispatched
Max SW Purchase
Check Over-Supply Conditions
12June 7, 2011
1 29 57 85 1131411691972252532813093373653934214494775055335610
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Historic Over-Supply Condition - May 2011
Hydro Thermal Wind Load
Hour of Month
Meg
awat
tsActual Hourly Dispatch
Thermal mostly off
Hydro shows max flexibility including providing additional spill
13
Simulated Hourly Dispatch
June 7, 2011
1 27 53 79 1051311571832092352612873133393653914174434694955215475735996256516777037290
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000Simulated Hourly Generation - May '98 Water
Hydro Thermal Wind
Hour of the Month
Meg
awat
ts
DEC minimum for within hour balancing(does not show the within hour variation)
14
Over-Supply Condition
June 7, 2011
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 460
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000First 2 Days - Over-Supply Simulated Dispatch
Load Thermal Hydro Wind
Hours
Meg
awat
ts
Thermal at Minimum
Hydro at DEC Minimum
Check Individual Resource Dispatch
16
Simulated Winter* Dispatch forBennett Mountain (gas)
June 7, 2011
11
93
75
57
39
11
09
12
71
45
16
31
81
19
92
17
23
52
53
27
12
89
30
73
25
34
33
61
37
93
97
41
54
33
45
14
69
48
75
05
52
35
41
55
95
77
59
56
13
63
16
49
66
76
85
70
37
21
73
9
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000Load Therm Wind
Hour of Month (1 = 1 am day 1)
Me
ga
wa
tts
Dispatched when needed
*Summer capacity is 165 MW. On 1/31/11 it was dispatched at 182 MW.
17
Historical Daily DispatchBennett – August* 2010
June 7, 2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Bennett Mountain
Day in Month
Meg
awat
ts
*Summer capacity is 165 MW. On 1/31/11 it was dispatched at 182 MW.
18
Simulated Dispatch forBoardman (coal)
June 7, 2011
11
93
75
57
39
11
09
12
71
45
16
31
81
19
92
17
23
52
53
27
12
89
30
73
25
34
33
61
37
93
97
41
54
33
45
14
69
48
75
05
52
35
41
55
95
77
59
56
13
63
16
49
66
76
85
70
37
21
73
9
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000Load Therm Wind
Hour of Month (1 = 1 am day 1)
Me
ga
wa
tts
Base loaded plant
19
Next Steps• Add seasonal capacity values to the simulation
– GENESYS currently uses winter capacity values only because until recently the region focused on winter problems
– Seasonal capacity values are easily added via data tables
• Add ramping rate logic– First issue is to get good data– Logic to implement ramping is not yet in the model– Coal “day-must” run logic is in the model
June 7, 2011
