VCI preliminary market findings fxm assoc 2011-12-07
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Preliminary Market Findings ► Housing Demand Analysis ► Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis FXM Associates December 2011
description
Preliminary market findings from FXM Associates for Norwich Vibrant Communities Initiative
Transcript of VCI preliminary market findings fxm assoc 2011-12-07
Preliminary Market Findings
► Housing Demand Analysis► Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis
FXM AssociatesDecember 2011
Housing Demand Analysis
• FXM’s proprietary Housing Demand Model considers the following:
– Number of households in 2011 by age and income– Projected number of households by age and income in 2016– Mobility by age of householder– Propensity to own or rent by age of householder– Income qualified households by rent or sales price points
• Average annual housing demand estimated for rental or sales within target geographic area
20-Minute Drive Time
2011 Income by Age of Householder: Norwich Market Area
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+
Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Total over $36,000 Total over $44,000 Total over $50,000
2016 Income by Age of Householder: Norwich Market Area
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+
Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Total over $36,000 Total over $44,000 Total over $50,000
Change in Number of Households by Age and Income Cohorts: Norwich Market Area 2011-2016
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Total over $36,000
Total over $44,000
Total over $50,000
Annual Mobility Rates by Age of Householder
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+
All Movers Same state or county
Propensity to Own or Rent by Age of Householder
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Under 35 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 75 and Over
Propensity to rent Propensity to own
Estimated Annual Demand for Rental Units by Price and Age of Householder: Norwich Market Area 2011-2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Under 35 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 75 and Over
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts p
er Y
ear
Rentals @ $900/month Rentals @ $1100/month Rentals @ $1300/month
Estimated Average Annual Demand for Rentals All Household Types with Qualifying Incomes
2011- 2016
396
187
326
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Rentals @ $900/month Rentals @ $1100/month Rentals @ $1300/month
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts p
er Y
ear
Average Annual Demand for Rentals: Norwich Market Area 2011-2016 Householders under Age 35 and Ages 55 to 74
239
183
97
45
40
23
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Rentals @ $900/month Rentals @ $1100/month Rentals @ $1300/month
Age 55-74
Under Age 35
Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis
• Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis is a snapshot of current (2010) consumer expenditures and actual store sales within a defined geographic area
• Retailers typically use 5- 10- and 15-minute drive times to define their market areas
• Where consumer expenditures within those drive times exceed store sales potential opportunities exist to expand existing stores/store sales or attract new retailers
5-Minute Drive Time
10-Minute Drive Time
15-Minute Drive Time
Next Steps• Interviews with selected real estate brokers, businesses, property
owners, economic development professionals
• Assess relative strengths of study area business mix and concentrations
• Employment and space demand projections to estimate potential demand for office space etc.
• Prepare conceptual pro forma for selected historic buildings (with CGI)
• Provide general assessment of fiscal impacts related to buildingredevelopment
