Values Based Politics

DLC National Conversation Presented by Mark Penn

Penn, Schoen & Berland Assoc. Inc

July 17, 2001

Lessons From 2000

Republican Base

22%

Swing II

28%

Democratic Base

23%

Swing I

27%

The American Electorate

Swing ISuburban Women

Worried about children and families

Swing IIWired Workers – Men

Fiscally Conservative

Socially Progressive

Investing in stock market

Work in suburbs – not downtown plant

Want authenticity

Who Are Predominately Swing I and Swing II Voters?

Swing ISuburban Women

Socially ProgressiveStrongly Pro-Choice

Family-Centered Values

Less Sensitive to Fiscal Issues

Less Concerned Cand. Attributes

Gore Failed To Woo Late Breaking Swing II VotersThe voters Gore was able to attract at the end of the

campaign were Swing I late breakers.

Bush captured all of the Swing II late breaking voters because they react very strongly to messages about small government, fiscal responsibility, and personal responsibility.

5

How 2000 Swing II Late Breakers Voted

Gore 0%

Bush 100%

How 2000 Swing II Late Breakers Voted in 1996

Clinton 27%

Dole 45%

Perot 9%

Didn’t vote in 96 15%

Why Are Swing II Voters So Important?

They are the difference between tying and winning with a majority.

If Gore simply won the 27% of the Swing II late breaking voters that Clinton did, the popular vote would have looked like the following:

6

45%52%

3%

Bush Gore Others

2000 Campaign Messages

Campaign Message (Ranked by Much More Likely to Vote)

All Sub. Women

Swing II

Bush - Change the Tone 46 46 57

Gore - People vs. the Powerful

41 44 32

Gore failed to reach these Swing II voters because his message did not resonate with them. Bush’s did.

Penn, Schoen & Berland/DLC Nov. 7 2000

Values and the Political Landscape Today

Situation Analysis

• Bush Values Shield: Democrats must penetrate the values shield Bush has put around himself. He must not be shown as just in tune with business interests but rather out of step on issues like the economy, budget, healthcare, energy. We should tie the House Republicans around Bush as they are weaker on values measures and up for reelection first.

• Bipartisan Leadership: Bush took a tremendous but not fatal hit upon the Jeffords departure and there are signs he is beginning to rebound from this. Democrats must take pains to be bipartisan but stand on conviction.

• Fiscal Responsibility: As the budget surplus wanes, Bush takes an enormous gamble being seen as spending the Medicare Trust Fund. Democrats must argue for a limited but activist federal government and oppose a “strangled” federal government that leaves everybody fighting for themselves.

Values Trump Economy

10

Democrat Rep Indep Battle Ground

Wired Jan. 10, 2000

Economy 44 26 37 37 39 27

Decline in Values

52 72 59 59 59 69

Which is closer to your view –

Economic issues concerning job creation and growth is of greater

concern to me right now

or

I’m concerned with the decline in values and the moral fabric of

society contributing to the breakup of the family and crime

and violence?

Econ.36%

Values60%

Don't Know

4%

10Penn, Schoen & Berland/NDN 2001

Bush Out Values Democrats on Many Attributes

11

For each, please tell me if it applies more to the Democrats in Congress or Bush.

Bush Democrats Dem Margin

Works to increase the choices available to all Americans

37 56 19

Stands up for people like me 51 39 12

Works to strengthen our communities 39 50 11

Works to increase opportunity for all 42 48 6

Works to make it easier to raise my children 41 43 2

Does not offer mainstream ideas 41 41 -

Represents the special interests 43 46 -3

Shares your values 51 39 -12

Fights for families 52 39 -13

Willing to work with the other party 53 36 -17

Offers new ideas 54 34 -20

Stands up for what they believe 54 33 -21

Demands responsibility 58 29 -29

Honest 52 22 -30

Promotes moral values 66 24 -42Penn, Schoen & Berland/NDN 2001

• Values are indexed by attitudes towards homosexuality, sex before marriage, belief in God, pornography, sanctity of marriage, and importance of religion

• The lower scores were given to the responses less tied to traditional religious attitudes.

Congressional Ballot by VALUES INDEX

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

6 to 14 15 to 17 18 to 20 21 to 23 24

Democrat

Republican

Whites Only

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2002 Electoral Targets on Values

How do we reach a Democratic electoral majority?

Reaching out to Swing I and II Voters

Reaching out to family values-oriented voters in border states and suburban swing districts.

Reaching out to moderate men who are socially liberal and oppose the right wing of the Republican Party but who are economically conservative.

Cultivating our Growing Base

As Hispanics and African American demographics grow, their values must be Democratic values.

Electoral Targets Overview

DLC Value Statements – Ranked by Strongly Support I II

Public policies should reinforce marriage, promote family, demand parental responsibility, and discourage out-of-wedlock births.

39 59

Preventing crime and punishing criminals means America’s justice system should be rooted in and responsive to its communities.

42 53

American citizenship entails responsibilities as well as rights, citizens should give something back to their communities and their country.

47 52

Government’s proper role in the New Economy is to equip working Americans with new tools for economic success and security.

34 47

Fiscal discipline is fundamental to sustained economic growth as well as responsible government.

30 44

Americans must have access to health insurance in a system that balances governmental and individual responsibility.

53 25

Swing I and Swing II Values

1%7%

25%

1990 2000 2050 Est

 

Growth of Hispanic Population Makes Them A Powerful Political Force

% Hispanic Voters of the Overall American

Electorate

*2050 is Total Population Estimate

Year Dem Cand.

Rep Cand.

2000 62 35

1996 72 21

1994 60 40

1992 61 25

1984 63 37

VNS Data US Census Data

Hispanics Are More Satisfied With The Country

Recent Gallup polling shows Hispanics as satisfied with the country as Whites. Blacks are overall negative by 20 points.

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53%44%

37%

60%53%

44%

Whites Blacks Hispanics

Satisfied Unsatisfied

Gallup, June 2001

DLC Value Statements – Ranked by Strongly Support Hispanics

Americans must have access to health insurance in a system that balances governmental and individual responsibility.

66

Government’s proper role in the New Economy is to equip working Americans with new tools for economic success and security.

56

Preventing crime and punishing criminals means America’s justice system should be rooted in and responsive to its communities.

52

Private sector creates prosperity and jobs and the gov’t should help assure that everyone has the opportunity to share in that prosperity.

52

Public policies should reinforce marriage, promote family, demand parental responsibility, and discourage out-of-wedlock births.

47

Hispanics Values

Values Agenda For 2002

20

For each please tell me if it would make you more or less favorable towards Democrats in Congress if they proposed it. Ranked by D+I-R

D+I-R

Expand access to health insurance so that all low-income children and their parents are covered.

112

Address a national shortage of nurses by increasing federal subsidies for nursing education, and banning mandatory overtime for nurses.

112

Having our schools teach good citizenship and strong character education.

108

Strengthening child support enforcement and requiring work from fathers who owe child support.

99

Invest and help the private sector use technology to strengthen traditional industries - such as auto production and building trades. This way, the new economy innovations can help industrial businesses grow and create jobs.

98

Tripling enforcement of food inspections to protect against mad cow disease and foot and mouth disease among livestock.

97

Penn, Schoen & Berland Ass. April 16, 2001

Democratic Proposals

Valuing Fiscal Responsibility - We must preserve a balanced budget, make sure the debt is paid down or use a trigger and government must become more efficient and flexible.

Expanding America’s Econ. Opportunities – Economic development initiatives for rural areas and workers.

Meeting America’s Healthcare Needs – Adding prescription drugs, PBOR, low-income parents expansion.

Adopting a New Energy Policy – Emphasizing technology to end dependence on foreign energy sources.

Valuing Personal Responsibility - Government will do its part if citizens do theirs. Fatherhood, child support and gun safety, etc.

Valuing Tolerance and Doing What is Right. We stand for hate crimes bill, min. wage, equal pay, privacy, employer discrimination, genetic discrimination, mental health.

Preparing Americans for Retirement. Social Security, Medicare, IRAs, pensions/401Ks.

Democratic Values Agenda