8/21/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, and Market Neutral Results

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June 19, 2015

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VALUATION WARNING: Overvalued stocks now make up 66.!" o# ourstocks ass$%ned a valuat$on and &'.(" o# t)ose e*u$t$es are calculated to+e overvalued +, &-" or more. ALL sectors are calculated to +eovervaluedw$t) e$%)t at or near dou+le d$%$ts.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Inde/ 0tarted week 1r$da, A2 3)an%e 3)an%e " ,td

45IA %&()"&* %)+"* (&.' (.-'" (.6"

NA04A7 ,)%%"&( ,%"(* ((8.(8 &.!" '.9("

RU00LL &--- %,("+ %,"( &6.6 &.((" 6.89"

0;< 9-- )(%"+. %%"+* &8.-& (.&" &.'"

0ummar, o# V 0tock Un$verse

0tocks Undervalued !!.98"

0tocks Overvalued 66.!"

0tocks Undervalued +, &-" (&.!8"

0tocks Overvalued +, &-" &'.("

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8/21/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, and Market Neutral Results

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SECTOR OVERVIEW

0ector 3)an%e 2T4 =T4 Valuat$on Last (&2Return

Rat$o

Aerospace )"&%/ )"*/ ,"*(/ )",*/ overvalued -."(/ "*%

AutoT$resTrucks )"&,/ -%"%&/ +",%/ ,"&)/ overvalued -,".+/ %*"&

?as$c 2ater$als )"/ -)"(/ )"(,/ +")+/ overvalued -%.".)/ ."%.

?us$ness 0erv$ces )"&/ ")/ ,"(/ %,".(/ overvalued +"+/ ,"..

3omputer and Tec)nolo%, )".(/ %"%+/ ",(/ %&")+/ overvalued ")/ +)"+

3onstruct$on )"*/ )"&,/ "(/ ")/ overvalued )"&)/ ."**

3onsumer 4$scret$onar, )"*,/ %"++/ %)")*/ %.",(/ overvalued ")+/

3onsumer 0taples )"*%/ %",./ ."./ %+"&/ overvalued "./ .",&

1$nance )",,/ %",/ ."&&/ "(/ overvalued +".)/ %&".

Industr$al 0)ort 1und.?enc)mark #or 0mall 3ap $s t)e Russell &--- 0mall 3ap Inde/ BRUTC. ?enc)mark #or current mont)1orecast 2N0 and all ot)er port#ol$os #or all t$me #rames $s t)e 0;

8/21/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, and Market Neutral Results

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Se"t# Tal$%Tanstati#nBelow, we present the latest data on leading Transportation Sector stocks fromour Institutional software package (VEI. These results were filtered by market priceand volume--no results below 3$share or less than !""k sharesday volume.

Top1$ve Transportat$on 0ector 0tocks0)ortTerm 1orecast Returns

T$cker 3ompan, Name 2arket ET?;6E 1I4W125 %("(* -."&/ %)*"*+/

http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0

8/21/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, and Market Neutral Results

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Top1$ve Transportat$on 0ector 0tocks2ost Overvalued

T$cker 3ompan, Name 2arket

8/21/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, and Market Neutral Results

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ValuEngine !orecast

 TargetriceC

97pected;eturn

"#$onth !)D.>D ".?>E%#$onth !3".>3 !.4?E

$onth !3F.!) F.3"E

"#'ear !F!.G? !".)>E

#'ear !FG.?3 !F.DGE

%#'ear DF.?) -)>.)GE

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8/21/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, and Market Neutral Results

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Valuation ) RankingsValuation !F.)FE overvalued Valuation Rank H' 3>

"#$ !orecast Return ".?>E "#$ !orecast Return Rank   D4

"#$ Return F).)"E $o*entu* Rank H'  D"+harpe Ratio !."> +harpe Ratio Rank H'  D3

#' -vg -nnual Return )4.3FE #' -vg -nnual Rtn Rank   D)

Volatility )3.D"E Volatility Rank H' G!

E.pecte/ E0+ 1rowth D.34E E0+ 1rowth Rank H' F3

$arket Cap (billions GFD."! +i2e Rank   !""

3railing 04E Ratio !4.)D 3railing 04E Rank H' GG

!orwar/ 04E Ratio !3.D? !orwar/ 04E Ratio Rank   >?

0E1 Ratio !.>3 0E1 Ratio Rank   3!

0rice4+ales 3.43 0rice4+ales Rank H' )?

$arket45ook  >.)3 $arket45ook Rank H'  ))

5eta ".?3 5eta Rank   4?

-lpha ".)D -lpha Rank   D"

 

W+ats -#t.

/##) News '# 'e) S&a$s Rall

/arkets have *umped hard this week on a variety of good news for e5uities.

The :#S has reached a level not seen since the dotcom boom of )""" and boththe SI 4"" and the &ow have also *umped up once more. The latest leg up caused

yet another valuation warning because at these levels our models find that morethan >4E of the stocks we can assign a valaution are calculated to be overvaued.

nvestors reacted positively to the latest news from the +ed that the economy is

firming up and while it is looking like rates are going up, the central bank is not 5uiteready to boost them *ust yet and may let the economy run a bit more before easingoff the throttle.

Highlights fro* the !e/6s latest !7$C *eeting inclu/e/ the following8

9conomic activity has been e7panding moderately after having changedlittle during the first 5uarter. The pace of *ob gains picked up while theunemployment rate remained steady.

/arket-based measures of inflation compensation remain lowJ survey-based measures of longer-term inflation e7pectations have remained

stable.

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The 1ommittee e7pects that, with appropriate policy accommodation,economic activity will e7pand at a moderate pace, with labor marketindicators continuing to move toward levels the 1ommittee *udges

consistent with its dual mandate.

nflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term,

but the 1ommittee e7pects inflation to rise gradually toward ) percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitoryeffects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate.

The 1ommittee today reaffirmed its view that the current " to !F percenttarget range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. n determininghow long to maintain this target range, the 1ommittee will assess progress--

both realiAed and e7pected--toward its ob*ectives of ma7imumemployment and ) percent inflation

The 1ommittee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the targetrange for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in thelabor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its

) percent ob*ective over the medium term.

The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and

inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for

 some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the

Committee views as normal in the longer run. emphasis added'

Ke thus see a +ed that is properly balancing inflation concerns with efforts topromote full employment. Khile it is often tough to read the tea leaves, here we havea clear restatement of the +ed(s dual mandate manage inflation and promote

employment' and a clear indication that they are prepared to keep rates low untilthey are sure the labor market has properly recovered. Thus it appears as thoughe5uities will remain the only game in town for a while longer.

VE '#e"ast Ma$et Neutal Newslette #sts

St#ng i"$ 3& (ue t# S+#t #siti#ns

/ay2une was another good month for our portfolio as we posted a gain of

).43E and beat both the S4"" loss of ".3!E and the /S#L pick up of ".DGE. Themodified stop-lossed strategy with a suggested >"-F" allocation trailed the standardmarket neutral allocation with a gain of ).)>E. The trailing !) month percentagereturn is )3.3?E for the newsletter and ?.G4E for the /S#L ong-Short +undMand

D.F>E for the S4"". Since inception, our portfolio has returned !)D.D)E vs the /S#Lreturn of 33.)4E.

8/21/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, and Market Neutral Results

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t was another strange month as longs were lackluster despite the hard *ump for the markets in the past few days due to the recent +

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