Ustaoglu, Williams & Petrov - input2012

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University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010

DEVELOPING A CBA METHODOLOGY

FOR THE SCENARIO-BASED LAND-USE

IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PROPOSED RAIL

INVESTMENTS IN THE LEIPZIG REGION

University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010Dr. EDA USTAOGLU JRC-IES Sustainability Assessment Unit, Ispra, Italy.

Dr. BRENDAN WILLIAMS School of GPEP, University College Dublin, Ireland.

Dr. LAURA PETROV Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark.

10th-12nd May, 2012

INPUT 2012: 7th International Conference

Informatics and Urban and Regional Planning

Cagliari, Sardinia

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Content

1. Introduction: Context & Contributions

2. The Leipzig Area

3. The MOLAND Model

4. Scenario Analysis from the MOLAND ModelUniversity of Aberdeen 1st October 20104. Scenario Analysis from the MOLAND Model

5. Scenario-Based Cost-Benefit Evaluation Process

6. Conclusions & Future Work

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Context & Contributions


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THE LEIPZIG AREA

� Leipzig had experienced an urban shrinkage process starting from the first half of 1990s.The reasons for this shrinkage process are: - a considerable migration to the Western Germany just after re-unification; - a massive suburbanisation; - a fall in birth rates and growth in death rates (Haase et.al. 2007; Florentin, 2008) University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010rates (Haase et.al. 2007; Florentin, 2008)

� In the early 1990s, the outer city became an attractive place for investors considering the absence of planning regulations and policies. The result has been dispersal of population to the countryside and outer skirts of the existing centre (Kroll et.al. 2010)

� Urban shrinkage process has slowed down in the beginning of 2000s due to small-scale immigration and an increase in birth rates. However, this new situation did not change the physical pattern of urban sprawl developed in the 1990s (Bontje, 2004)

� The physical infrastructure of Leipzig was designed for a larger population, and with urban shrinkage and population decline; this infrastructure has become considerably large for the current population

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MOLAND (Monitoring Land-use/Cover Dynamics)

• The MOLAND model utilises cellular modelling to the land cover-

which is named as cellular automata (CA) i.e. a set of transition

rules representing the compatibility of land-uses with each other

• The model developed for European urban areas experiencing

major urban change including the Leipzig and Dublin areas has University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010

major urban change including the Leipzig and Dublin areas has

two components including regional and urban land-use sub-

models

• Macro-level data such as GDP and population growth are inputs

for the regional sub-model, also affecting the land-use sub-model

which is run through a CA model

• Micro-model parameters i.e. neighbourhood effects,

accessibility, zoning, population, employment indicators etc. can

be utilised to explain the micro-level spatial issues

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Scenario Analysis from the Moland Model: Scenario 1: Hyper-Tech

Population & Economic Trends-steady population and economic growth

Spatial Development/Planning- New industrial developments occur between

Leipzig-Halle axis and other towns

- New residential developments are

encouraged in polycentric urban form

University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010Transport- Improvement of national roads

- Better links to the motorways and airport

extensions

Overall Trends- Rapid technology advance-economic growth

- Low environmental protection

- Passive management leading to peri-

urbanisation and ‘metro-polisation’ of rural

area

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Scenario Analysis from the Moland Model: Scenario 2: Compact Development

Population & Economic Trends-slight population and economic growth

Spatial Development/Planning- Increases in infrastructure construction (e.g.

demolished houses replaced by partly

housing, partly sports and recreational

activities)

University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010TransportLow investment in transportation

- Link to motorway Chemnitz

- Investment in fast railways to Munich,

Berlin and Erfurt (ICE)

Overall Trends- Moderate economic growth

- High environmental protection (Green ring

map)

- Fragmentation, social exclusion

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Key Impacts and Indicators for the CBAImpacts/Indicators* Suggested Indicators/Impacts for

the Present Study

Quantification of

Impacts

1. Direct Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure

Provision:

-Transportation Facility Land Values

-Development Costs/ Capital Investments

-Adjacent Property Values

Costs/ Capital Investments of

Transportation Infrastructure

Monetized Impact

2.Socio-Economic Impacts:

a. Land Development Impacts:

-Green Space Preservation

-Public Service Costs

Costs of Providing Public Services Monetized Impact

b. Transportation- Related Impacts:

- Savings in VehicleOperation Costs Savings in Vehicle Operation Costs Monetized Impact

University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010- Travel Time Savings

- Reduction in Risk of Accidents/Safety

- Comfort and Convenience

- Traffic Congestion Effects

Travel Time Savings

Savings in Accident Costs

Monetized Impact

Monetized Impact

c. Socio-Economic Development Benefits:

-Affordability (Housing)

-Affordability (Transport)

-Social Inclusion

-Socio-EconomicGrowth

-Land-Use/Transport Accessibility

-Area Property Values

Area Land Values Qualitative/Quantitative

Assessment

3. Transport Network Effects:

-Reliability/Quality of Transport Service

-System OperatingCosts

System Operating Costs Monetized Impact

4. Energy and Environmental Impacts:

- Energy Consumption

-Air/Noise Pollution Exposure

-Climate Change Emissions (Greenhouse Gas Emissions)

CO2 Emissions

Local Air Pollution

Monetized Impact

Monetized Impact

Adapted from: Janic (2003); Litman (2008)

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Some Examples from Impact/Indicator Data Requirements

1. Change in

Road Vehicle

Operation

Costs

For the calculation of the economic benefits (costs) associated with vehicle operating

costs, two types of data are required:

-Demand: the number of private vehicles (cars) making a particular origin-

destination trip for the hyper-tech scenario and the alternative compact

development scenario ( peak/off-peak traffic flow data for the baseline and

alternative scenarios)

-Vehicle kilometres-total change in vehicle kilometres from the local highway

network for the hyper-tech and compact development cases

University of Aberdeen 1st October 20102. Change in

Travel Time

Estimates related to;

-Travel time-change in travel time for private vehicles (cars) in peak/off-peak traffic

for the baseline hyper-tech and compact development scenarios

-Demand: peak/off-peak traffic flow data for the baseline and compact development

cases

3. Change in CO2

Emissions

-Total change in greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. CO2 , in particular) for the baseline

and compact development cases.

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Summary of Impact/Indicator Valuation

IMPACTS/

INDICATORS

IMPACT EVALUATION METHODS

Capital and

Operation Costs of

Rapid Rail Provision

Evaluation is based on local data availability.

-Capital cost items for Germany were specified in the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan

2003

-Elements of rail operation costs for Leipzig refer to World Bank (2005) specifications

Costs of Providing

Public Services

Public service provision costs are case specific and could be identified as the:

‘costs of road construction, housing and community development, education, fire and police

protection, water and electricity distribution, sewerage, and social and recreational

facilities’. University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010facilities’.

Savings in Accident

Costs

The statistical value of human life (SVHL) has been determined using two methods:

Human capital : measures discounted loss of production due to the injury or death of the

individual member of the workforce

Stated preferences : estimates willingness-to-pay (WTP) values of individuals indicating

their preferences to reduce the risk of being injured or die in an accident

Forecasted Value of Accident Costs was computed for the Leipzig Area based on HEATCO

(2004) analysis.

Savings in Road

Vehicle Operation

Costs

Road vehicle operation costs are correlated with road design standard, road maintenance

strategy, environmental impacts, the composition of the traffic flow, and road

congestion. However, the operating cost relationships for road vehicles is

more generic and transferable between countries (HEATCO, 2004). This

study is based on the adjusted parameter values which are derived from

external sources.

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Summary of Impact/Indicator Valuation

IMPACTS/

INDICATORS

IMPACT EVALUATION METHODS

Travel Time Savings The cost saving approach, which considers wage rates as a measure of productivity loss or

gain by the labour force, is selected as a minimum approach for the valuation of work time

savings (Federal Statistical Office, 2010). For the non-work time valuation, the values

obtained from HEATCO (2004) can be considered for the Leipzig case. These values were

derived specifically for Germany for the year 2002 by utilising a meta-analysis approach.

Climate Change Costs related to the emissions of CO2 are evaluated on a global scale rather than location

specific evaluations. A cost factor reflecting the average shadow value will be used for University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010specific evaluations. A cost factor reflecting the average shadow value will be used for

valuing CO2 emissions (see Kuik et.al. 2007).

Local Air Pollution Considering the absence of local data concerning costs of local air pollution in the Leipzig

Region, this research utilised the country specific cost factors for Germany, which were

developed in one of the EU-projects (i.e. HEATCO, 2006) for the monetary valuation of

local air pollution.

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Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (B/C): the ratio of the discounted aggregate net benefits (i.e. benefits University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (B/C): the ratio of the discounted aggregate net benefits (i.e. benefits

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Stages of Scenario-Based CBA Evaluation Process


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Conclusions

- In terms of sustainable urban development considerations,

dispersed development in the baseline hyper-tech scenario is less

desirable than compact development scenario since costs of such

development can be expected to exceed the benefits

University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010- In contrast, compact development policies could achieve

considerable benefits over the baseline hyper-tech scenario by

reducing the negative consequences of urban dispersal i.e. high

costs of public service provision, low accessibility to land-uses and

public transportation modes, increased transport-related

emissions, energy consumption and pollution

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Future Work

- The next stage in the research is to apply a CBA approach to the

scenarios chosen for the Leipzig Region in order to evaluate the two

scenarios of dispersed and compact developments.

- Considering data specifications outlined for the evaluation of the

prioritised impacts/indicators for the Leipzig Area, the related University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010prioritised impacts/indicators for the Leipzig Area, the related

parameters for the cost-benefit evaluation will be computed with a

final CBA result.

- A further application of this research is to compare the CBA results

of the Leipzig case with those of other European examples. This will

allow the CBA process be used as a policy support tool in discussions

of alternative development policies and investment decisions such as

compact and dispersed developments.

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University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010Thank you...University of Aberdeen 1st October 2010Thank you...

Ustaoglu, Williams & Petrov - input2012

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