Using the Land Use in Central Indiana (LUCI) Models in Transportation Planning

John R. OttensmannCenter for Urban Policy and the Environment

Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Land Use and Transportation

Land use and travel are interrelated Land use affects travel behavior Transportation system affects land use

change

For planning, interested in both Future urban development effect on travel,

performance of planned improvements Effect of planned improvements on urban

development

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Family of Urban Land Use Simulation Models

LUCI (Land Use in Central Indiana) Model

LUCI/T Model luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Central Indiana

Implementation luci2 Indiana Statewide Model

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

LUCI (Land Use in Central Indiana) Model

Model simulating conversion of land to urban use in 44-county region in Central Indiana

Uses data on urban land derived from LandSat satellite imagery

Simulates development for 17,369 mile-square grid cells

Uses employment data for 320 ZIP code areas

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Central Indiana 2000 Percent Urban

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Predictors of Probability of Urban Development

Accessibility to employment (using distance)

Availability of water and sewer Distance to interstates and 4-lane

highways Level of urban development in area Urban development in prior period ISTEP scores for school district

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Accessibility to Employment

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Simulating Development Driven by forecast of population

growth for entire region Simulates in 5-year increments Predicts probability of development

and density for grid cells Adjusts probabilities to accommodate

forecast population growth

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Provision for Alternative Development Scenarios

LUCI (and its successors) provide for simulation of alternative development scenarios

Scenarios reflecting policy choices, including restrictions on development, utility expansion

Scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions regarding future development, including population growth, density and accessibility preferences

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Urban Development to 2040: Require Utilities vs. Current Trends

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

LUCI/T Model Developed for Central Indiana

Suburban Transportation & Mobility Study

9-county area surrounding Indianapolis

Uses travel times from travel demand model to calculate accessibility

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Comparison of Baseline and Maximum Change Alternatives

Simulations to 2025, 2040 Baseline: existing and planned

transportation improvements Maximum change: 360º

circumferential limited-access highway in outer part of area (outer belt)

Use of LUCI/T to forecast development for 2025 travel demand model

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Traffic Forecasts

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

LUCI/T Baseline and Maximum Change Forecast of Urban Change to 2025

Baseline (Minimum Change) Maximum Change

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

LUCI/T Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Forecasts

Urban 2025 Baseline0 - 0.10.1 - 0.30.3 - 0.50.5 - 0.70.7 - 1

Difference Baseline and Maximum-0.005 - -0.004-0.004 - -0.002-0.002 - 0.0020.002 - 0.0040.004 - 0.009

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Possible Reasons for Small Differences In general, the periphery of significant

urban development does not extend out to outer belt by 2025 (or 2040)

Households will find locations at urban periphery more accessible to employment than locations near outer belt

Major effect on travel times is to reduce times between locations near outer belt, but those have limited employment

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

General-purpose urban simulation model

Can separately simulate residential and employment-related development

Can simulate employment growth

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

luci2 as a General-Purpose Urban Simulation Model

Models can be implemented for different areas…

With different datasets… Using regular or irregular simulation

zones (including TAZs)… Using distances or travel times… For models of varying complexity Could implement LUCI and LUCI/T in

luci2

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

luci2 Central Indiana Implementation

Implementation for 44-county Central Indiana region

Separately simulates residential and employment-related development

Simulates employment growth in 320 ZIP code areas

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

luci2 Current Trends Scenario

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

luci2 Indiana Statewide Model

Simulates residential and employment-related development for 4,579 TAZs in INDOT travel demand model

Simulates local-service employment growth for TAZs

Uses travel times from travel demand model

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

luci2 Indiana Statewide Model

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Features of luci2 Indiana Statewide Model

Uses travel times for INDOT travel demand model to calculate accessibilities

Primary driver of residential development is accessibility to employment change

Can use INDOT population and employment forecasts

Can forecast local service employment

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

Integration of luci2 with INDOT Travel Demand Model

Simulation starts with 2000 travel times from the travel demand model

Simulates employment growth and urban development for 2005

Results used by travel demand model to simulate 2005 travel, travel times

New travel times used by luci2 to simulate growth and development for 2010

Process continues to 2030

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

More Information LUCI Website:

www.luci.urbancenter.iupui.edu

John Ottensmann

jottensm@iupui.edu