Use of PLEXOS in Economic Engine Dispatch · •Operated by BELCO system operators, managed by...
Transcript of Use of PLEXOS in Economic Engine Dispatch · •Operated by BELCO system operators, managed by...
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Use of PLEXOS in Economic Engine Dispatch
Donald Marwick
Plant Performance Engineer
BELCO
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Introduction
• Overview
• Development of Economic Dispatch
• The Move to PLEXOS
• PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Impact of PLEXOX based economic dispatch
• Development of Automated Dispatch Modeling
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Overview
• BELCO• Bermuda Electric Utility
• 1904
• 153MW of Generation Capacity• 8 Diesel Engines (HFO)
• 4 Diesel Engines (LFO)
• 4 Gas Turbines (LFO)
• 2018 Peak Load of 103.8MW
• 2018 Total Generation 629.3GWh
• 38,013 Total Connections
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Overview
• Bermuda• 20.54 square miles
• Atlantic Island 665 miles East of North Carolina
• No Energy Market
• 4.7MW Government Waste to Energy
• Small amount of distributed rooftop solar power
• Electric generation and distribution handled by utility
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Economic Dispatch
• BELCO operated on a traditional utility model
• Operational focus on system stability
• Rise in oil prices increased in the 2010s
• This placed a higher priority of fuel efficiency
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Economic Dispatch
Source: macrotrends.net
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Economic Dispatch
• BELCO operates with a fuel adjustment• Utility carries the cost of the first $30/bbl
• The remainder is passed onto the customer
• Lack of energy market requires extensive use of peaking units in summer months
• Leads to a significantly higher fuel adjustment in summer
• Key priority for economic dispatch
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Economic Dispatch – Initial Model
• Initial Model Developed using Excel• Dynamic Economic Dispatch Model
• Calculated optimal load distribution based on engine curves using iterative calculations
• Tied into plant data to provide continuous dispatch instructions
• Operated by BELCO system operators, managed by system reliability
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Economic Dispatch – Initial Model
• Model Limitations• Low ability to account for system constraints
• Changes to the model required extensive rebuilding of the Excel file
• Concerns regarding dispatch instructions• Too aggressive
• Increased maintenance costs
• Benefits not clear to operators
• Use of the model was discontinued in the summer of 2012
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Economic Dispatch – Initial Model
• Used in backcasting and cost of engine analysis
• Adapted for use in capital planning• Compared optimum dispatch for proposed engines
• Used in support of Integrated Resource Plan
• Expanded to include additional factors• Fuel types
• Alternate engine types
• Load projections
• Levels of solar penetration
• Multiple 20 year models run in Excel
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Move to PLEXOS
• Limitations of Excel modeling became clear
• Additional work would require extensive internal development or the selection of a dedicated modeling software
• Selection process lead to the use of PLEXOS for BELCO’s modeling solution
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Move to PLEXOS
• PLEXOS was an extremely robust option for BELCO• No energy market
• All dispatchable generation at centralized location
• Plant expansion generally runs on a 20 year cycle
• PLEXOS advantages• Easy transfer of existing modeling work
• Future proof against changes in energy landscape• Utility scale solar
• Distributed generation
• 3rd party generators
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Move to PLEXOS
• Began modeling with PLEXOS in 2015
• Was able to complete system model during initial visit
• Initial work in support of capital expansion and IRP
• By summer 2015 model was developed with sufficient confidence to resume economic dispatch
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Dispatch model developed by adapting short term capital assessment model for engine dispatch
• Live data not possible with current model structure
• Developed a ‘Day Ahead’ methodology to provide dispatch instructions for a 24 hour period
• Worked in operation center to ensure successful rollout of dispatch model
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Initial dispatch instructions generated using daily load curves
• Curves from previous day were scaled based on projected peak for coming day
• PLEXOS dispatch was generated based on engine availability and ratings
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
Datetime Units E1 E2 D10 D3 D8 E4 E5 E7 E8 GT3E GT3F GT4 GT6 GT7 GT8 Total
6/4/2015 9:00 MW 9.87 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 82.17
6/4/2015 9:30 MW 8 10.52 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 82.92
6/4/2015 10:00 MW 8 12.08 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.48
6/4/2015 10:30 MW 9.1 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.6
6/4/2015 11:00 MW 10.05 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 86.55
6/4/2015 11:30 MW 10.58 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.08
6/4/2015 12:00 MW 11.5 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 88
6/4/2015 12:30 MW 11.32 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.82
6/4/2015 13:00 MW 10.64 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.14
6/4/2015 13:30 MW 10.83 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.33
6/4/2015 14:00 MW 10.57 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.07
6/4/2015 14:30 MW 8.84 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.34
6/4/2015 15:00 MW 8.53 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.03
6/4/2015 15:30 MW 8 11.8 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.2
6/4/2015 16:00 MW 8 11.02 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 83.42
6/4/2015 16:30 MW 8 11.72 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.12
6/4/2015 17:00 MW 8.81 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.31
6/4/2015 17:30 MW 8 11.75 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.15
6/4/2015 18:00 MW 8 11.56 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 83.96
6/4/2015 18:30 MW 8 11.65 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.05
6/4/2015 19:00 MW 8 11.38 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 83.78
6/4/2015 19:30 MW 8 10.25 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 82.65
6/4/2015 20:00 MW 8 10.02 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 82.42
6/4/2015 20:30 MW 9.16 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 81.46
6/4/2015 21:00 MW 9.07 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 81.37
6/4/2015 21:30 MW 10.19 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 82.49
6/4/2015 22:00 MW 8 11.63 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 79.83
6/4/2015 22:30 MW 8.48 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 76.58
6/4/2015 23:00 MW 8 10 3 3 3 7.777778 12.5 12.23444 12.67778 0 0 0 0 0 0 72.19
6/4/2015 23:30 MW 8 10 3 0 3 7.777778 12.5 11.90444 12.67778 0 0 0 0 0 0 68.86
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• This approach had several limitations• Load predictions were often not accurate
• Scaling the curve did not account for weather or weekly variations in load distribution
• Curve shape could vary significantly from one day to the next
• Operators were having to hunt through the total load column to locate the closest applicable dispatch
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
Datetime Units E1 E2 D10 D3 D8 E4 E5 E7 E8 GT3E GT3F GT4 GT6 GT7 GT8 Total
6/4/2015 9:00 MW 9.87 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 82.17
6/4/2015 9:30 MW 8 10.52 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 82.92
6/4/2015 10:00 MW 8 12.08 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.48
6/4/2015 10:30 MW 9.1 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.6
6/4/2015 11:00 MW 10.05 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 86.55
6/4/2015 11:30 MW 10.58 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.08
6/4/2015 12:00 MW 11.5 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 88
6/4/2015 12:30 MW 11.32 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.82
6/4/2015 13:00 MW 10.64 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.14
6/4/2015 13:30 MW 10.83 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.33
6/4/2015 14:00 MW 10.57 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 87.07
6/4/2015 14:30 MW 8.84 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.34
6/4/2015 15:00 MW 8.53 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.03
6/4/2015 15:30 MW 8 11.8 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.2
6/4/2015 16:00 MW 8 11.02 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 83.42
6/4/2015 16:30 MW 8 11.72 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.12
6/4/2015 17:00 MW 8.81 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 85.31
6/4/2015 17:30 MW 8 11.75 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.15
6/4/2015 18:00 MW 8 11.56 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 83.96
6/4/2015 18:30 MW 8 11.65 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 84.05
6/4/2015 19:00 MW 8 11.38 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 83.78
6/4/2015 19:30 MW 8 10.25 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 82.65
6/4/2015 20:00 MW 8 10.02 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.2 82.42
6/4/2015 20:30 MW 9.16 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 81.46
6/4/2015 21:00 MW 9.07 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 81.37
6/4/2015 21:30 MW 10.19 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 82.49
6/4/2015 22:00 MW 8 11.63 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 79.83
6/4/2015 22:30 MW 8.48 12.1 3 3 3 8.5 12.5 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 76.58
6/4/2015 23:00 MW 8 10 3 3 3 7.777778 12.5 12.23444 12.67778 0 0 0 0 0 0 72.19
6/4/2015 23:30 MW 8 10 3 0 3 7.777778 12.5 11.90444 12.67778 0 0 0 0 0 0 68.86
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Replaced predictive curve with a full load range
• Dispatch generated in half-megawatt increments• Load increasing in 0.5MW increments per time step across
model horizon
• Covered full operational range from minimum load to summer peak
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
Total Units E1 E2 D10 D3 D8 E4 E5 E7 E8 GT3E GT3F GT4 GT6 GT7
72.0 MW 8 10.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 7.78 12.50 10.50 12.22 0 0 0 0 0
72.5 MW 8 10.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 7.82 12.50 10.50 12.68 0 0 0 0 0
73.0 MW 8 10.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.32 12.50 10.50 12.68 0 0 0 0 0
73.5 MW 8 10.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
74.0 MW 8 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
74.5 MW 8.5 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
75.0 MW 9 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
75.5 MW 9.5 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
76.0 MW 10 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
76.5 MW 10 10.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
77.0 MW 10 10.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
77.5 MW 10 10.50 4.50 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
78.0 MW 10 10.50 5.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 0
78.5 MW 8.3 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
79.0 MW 8.8 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
79.5 MW 9.3 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
80.0 MW 9.8 10.50 3.00 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
80.5 MW 10 10.50 3.30 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
81.0 MW 10 10.50 3.80 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
81.5 MW 10 10.50 4.30 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
82.0 MW 10 10.50 4.80 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
82.5 MW 10 10.50 5.04 4.26 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
83.0 MW 10 10.50 5.04 4.76 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
83.5 MW 10 10.50 5.04 5.26 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
84.0 MW 10 10.50 5.47 5.33 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 0 4.20
84.5 MW 10 10.50 3.10 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 4.20 4.20
85.0 MW 10 10.50 3.60 4.00 4.00 8.50 12.50 10.50 13.00 0 0 0 4.20 4.20
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Benefits of the model still not clearly demonstrated• Operators focused on system stability with plant operations
focused on fuel and maintenance
• Began incorporating the cost of operation into the day ahead tables • Communicated the cost savings of economic dispatch
• Moved away from previous practice of optimizing per unit efficiency
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
Total E1 E2 D10 D14 D3 D8 E3 E6 E7 E8
72.0 MW 145.96 8.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
72.5 MW 145.99 8.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
73.0 MW 146.02 9.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
73.5 MW 148.05 8.00 150.83 11.00 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
74.0 MW 148.05 8.00 150.83 11.50 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
74.5 MW 148.06 8.00 150.83 12.00 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
75.0 MW 148.07 8.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
75.5 MW 148.09 8.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
76.0 MW 148.11 9.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
76.5 MW 148.13 9.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
77.0 MW 148.23 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.40 181.06 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
77.5 MW 148.42 9.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
78.0 MW 148.51 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.40 181.06 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
78.5 MW 148.61 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.90 178.96 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
79.0 MW 148.71 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.40 177.21 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
79.5 MW 148.80 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.90 175.82 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
80.0 MW 150.30 9.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
80.5 MW 150.30 9.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
81.0 MW 150.38 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.40 181.06 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
81.5 MW 150.47 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.90 178.96 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
82.0 MW 150.55 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.40 177.21 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
82.5 MW 150.63 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.90 175.82 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
83.0 MW 150.74 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.04 175.47 3.00 198.94 4.36 190.27 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
83.5 MW 150.87 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.04 175.47 3.00 198.94 4.86 188.39 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
84.0 MW 150.99 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.07 175.42 3.00 198.94 5.33 186.90 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
84.5 MW 151.08 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.56 174.51 3.00 198.94 5.33 186.90 4.01 176.41 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
85.0 MW 142.91 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.20 181.99 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
85.5 MW 143.04 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.70 179.75 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
Total E1 E2 D10 D14 D3 D8 E3 E6 E7 E8
72.0 MW 145.96 8.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
72.5 MW 145.99 8.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
73.0 MW 146.02 9.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
73.5 MW 148.05 8.00 150.83 11.00 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
74.0 MW 148.05 8.00 150.83 11.50 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
74.5 MW 148.06 8.00 150.83 12.00 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
75.0 MW 148.07 8.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
75.5 MW 148.09 8.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
76.0 MW 148.11 9.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
76.5 MW 148.13 9.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
77.0 MW 148.23 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.40 181.06 3.00 198.94 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
77.5 MW 148.42 9.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
78.0 MW 148.51 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.40 181.06 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
78.5 MW 148.61 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.90 178.96 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
79.0 MW 148.71 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.40 177.21 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
79.5 MW 148.80 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.90 175.82 0 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
80.0 MW 150.30 9.40 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
80.5 MW 150.30 9.90 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.00 183.04 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
81.0 MW 150.38 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.40 181.06 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
81.5 MW 150.47 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.90 178.96 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
82.0 MW 150.55 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.40 177.21 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
82.5 MW 150.63 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 4.90 175.82 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
83.0 MW 150.74 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.04 175.47 3.00 198.94 4.36 190.27 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
83.5 MW 150.87 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.04 175.47 3.00 198.94 4.86 188.39 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
84.0 MW 150.99 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.07 175.42 3.00 198.94 5.33 186.90 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
84.5 MW 151.08 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 5.56 174.51 3.00 198.94 5.33 186.90 4.01 176.41 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
85.0 MW 142.91 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.20 181.99 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
85.5 MW 143.04 10.00 150.83 12.10 148.72 3.70 179.75 3.00 198.94 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 13.00 142.43 10.50 137.16 13.00 132.75
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Addressed concerns over system stability
• Custom constraint to keep a fast response turbine in reserve
• Maximum continuous rating on all baseload engine to proven overheat
• Began including system spinning reserve into dispatch instructions
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
Total Spin E1 E2 D10 D3 D8 E3 E4 E6 E7 E8
72.0 15.4 145.61 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 0 7.78 145.58 12.22 142.60 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
72.5 14.9 145.56 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 0 7.82 145.53 12.68 142.42 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
73.0 14.4 145.52 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 0 8.00 145.33 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
73.5 15.4 145.64 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 8.50 146.37 0 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
74.0 14.9 145.69 8.00 150.83 10.03 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 8.97 146.76 0 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
74.5 14.4 145.72 8.03 150.83 10.50 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 8.97 146.76 0 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
75.0 21.9 146.33 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 5.00 152.48 7.78 145.58 11.06 143.43 12.49 136.04 12.68 132.62
75.5 21.4 146.24 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 5.31 151.26 7.78 145.58 11.06 143.43 12.68 136.01 12.68 132.62
76.0 20.9 146.14 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 5.81 149.59 7.78 145.58 11.06 143.43 12.68 136.01 12.68 132.62
76.5 20.4 146.05 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 6.13 148.68 7.78 145.58 11.23 143.27 12.68 136.01 12.68 132.62
77.0 19.9 145.97 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 6.13 148.68 7.78 145.58 11.73 142.86 12.68 136.01 12.68 132.62
77.5 19.4 145.89 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 6.50 147.84 7.78 145.58 11.87 142.75 12.68 136.01 12.68 132.62
78.0 18.9 145.83 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 6.70 147.43 7.78 145.58 11.87 142.75 12.68 136.01 12.98 132.74
78.5 18.4 145.79 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 6.70 147.43 7.78 145.58 12.02 142.68 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
79.0 17.9 145.74 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 6.70 147.43 7.78 145.58 12.52 142.48 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
79.5 17.4 145.68 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 6.82 147.24 8.00 145.33 12.68 142.42 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
80.0 16.9 145.63 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 7.32 146.57 8.00 145.33 12.68 142.42 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
80.5 16.4 145.60 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 7.82 146.23 8.00 145.33 12.68 142.42 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
81.0 15.9 145.59 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 8.00 145.33 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
81.5 15.4 145.61 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 8.50 146.37 8.00 145.33 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
82.0 14.9 145.66 8.00 150.83 10.03 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 8.97 146.76 8.00 145.33 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
82.5 14.4 145.68 8.03 150.83 10.50 148.72 4.00 178.59 0 4.00 176.44 8.97 146.76 8.00 145.33 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
83.0 20.9 147.96 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 6.70 147.43 7.78 145.58 12.52 142.48 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
83.5 20.4 147.89 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 6.82 147.24 8.00 145.33 12.68 142.42 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
84.0 19.9 147.83 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 7.32 146.57 8.00 145.33 12.68 142.42 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
84.5 19.4 147.79 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 7.82 146.23 8.00 145.33 12.68 142.42 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
85.0 18.9 147.77 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.00 146.24 8.00 145.33 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
85.5 18.4 147.77 8.00 150.83 10.00 148.72 4.00 178.59 4.00 191.84 4.00 176.44 8.50 146.37 8.00 145.33 13.00 142.43 13.00 136.09 13.00 132.75
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Additional model refinements made during program rollout• Incorporate ISOCH engine through use of fixed load points
• Multiple ISOCH options modeled to match operational policy
• Ability to enforce run order limitations due to maintenance requirements
• Able to model dispatch limitations due to engine vibration issues
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Worked with system operators through summer 2015 to ensure successful model deployment
• Multiple refinements of both dispatch model and results format
• Able to refine model to accurately represent operational practices
• By Q4 2015 had achieved sufficient buy in to begin running the model for outside the operations center
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PLEXOS Dispatch Modeling
• Model Procedure• Update model input filed based on current plant conditions
• Engine availability, engine ratings, dispatch limitations
• Run model and generate dispatch tables
• Send dispatch tables to system operators, PLEXOS team, Plant Manager, Chief Plant Engineer, and Plant Foreman• Ensures all stakeholders were aware of dispatch instructions
• In the event of system disruption (Outage, return to service, rating change) update inputs, rerun model and distribute updated dispatch tables
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
• Primary focus of economic dispatch was fuel savings• Summer 2014 vs 2015 reduced fuel, LO and variable O&M
cost of generation from $159.42/MWh to $156.47/MWh • Total savings of $736,789
• Majority of fuel savings passed on to customers through fuel adjustment
• Reduced summer fuel consumption by 3979 barrels• Direct BELCO savings of $119,355 after fuel adjustment
• Savings gained through greater deployment of more efficient engines and optimal dispatch across plant
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
• Improved accuracy of modeling• Refinements necessary to facilitate dispatch modeling were
incorporated into other company models
• Modeled plant behavior now more accurately represented actual practices
• Improvement in capital expansion modeling, back casting, and most significantly fuel budgeting
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
• Generated weekly assessments of plant performance vs model dispatch
• Able to verify accuracy of model and identify incidents of significant deviation• Deviations highlighted disruptions in plant operation
• Facilitated further refinements of the model
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
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Impact of Economic Dispatch
• Opportunities for short term forecasting • Dispatch model could be run to provide comparative
dispatches for engine outages, planned maintenance, and changes to engine run order
• Improved data velocity and provided a easy was of quantifying the fuel impact of any plant work
• Data from forecasting was able to support business cases to expedite maintenance works and other plant projects
• Ongoing dispatch program providing continuous record of plant performance• Assurance of optimal plant operation in terms of fuel
efficiency
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Development of Automated Dispatch Modeling
• Key limitation of day ahead modeling is the delay between changing plant conditions and updating of dispatch tables
• Additional source of error comes from the deployment of engines• Loads fluctuation between points where engine will be
deployed will call for engine to constantly be taken in and out
• Obviously not possible, defaults to operator discretion
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Development of Automated Dispatch Modeling
• Issues addressed through development of an automated dispatch model• Provide live dispatch results based on current plant
conditions• No direct control of engine dispatch
• Operates autonomously without constant input from system operators
• Requires minimal PLEXOS training for operation center staff
• Continuous updates based on load and plant conditions
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Development of Automated Dispatch Modeling
• Input files tied into SCADA system• Constantly updated with load, rating, and engine
availability
• Model run continuously on operations network virtual server
• Outputs saved to CSV files and read to dedicated dashboard
• Continuous record of engine dispatch
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Questions
• Thank you