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Tuesday, 03 March 2009, 02:20

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 000454

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 03/02/2034

TAGS PREL, PTER, PGOV, PK

SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR FBI DIRECTOR MUELLER

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b), (d).

1. (C) Summary: Mission Pakistan warmly

welcomes your arrival in Islamabad. You are

arriving in the midst of largely self-

inflicted political turmoil following the

Supreme Court's decision to disqualify from

public office Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif,

political rivals of President Asif Zardari.

Zardari engineered the Sharifs'

disqualification and followed that with

placing his party's governor in power in the

Punjab provincial government to replace

Shahbaz Sharif. At the moment, there are

multiple efforts to reconcile Zardari with the

Sharifs and to elect a replacement for Chief

Minister Punjab. Unless the Punjab issue is

resolved by March 12, a planned lawyers'

demonstration-that is backed by the Sharifs--could become

violent. You thus will find your interlocutors distracted by

domestic politics at a time when the GOP is struggling to meet

IMF-imposed fiscal targets and militants are increasing their

control over both the tribal areas and Swat, a once idyllic

tourist destination 90 miles from Islamabad.

2. (C) You will be meeting with key interlocutors in our

efforts to press the GOP for prosecution of the Mumbai

detainees, assistance in effecting the release of kidnapped

Americans John Solecki and David Rohde, and expanding law and

order cooperation. The issue of FBI access to the Mumbai

suspects remains very sensitive a decision to send an

investigative team to New Delhi currently rests on whether/how

India responds to Pakistan's 32 requests for additional

information. President Zardari has over-reached in this

current political crisis, but he remains secular, pro-American

and our best ally in Pakistan right now. He likely will assure

you that he has established a new anti-terrorism court that

US embassy cables: US funnels secretfunds to 'terrorist hotline'guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 30 November 2010 21.50 GMT

Summary

FBI di rector Robert

Mueller is briefed

before arriving in

Islamabad on a plethora

of thorny issues,

including the

investigation into the

Mumbai attacks and

visa complaints. Zardari

has "over-reached" but

remains America's "best

ally". And the US aims

to establish a "terrorist

hotline", fronted by the

Pakistani government

but secretly funded

from Washington. Key

section highlighted in

yellow

Read related article


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will deliver convictions on Mumbai. Zardari will request

additional USG support for the Northwest Frontier Province

(NWFP) police we will brief you on our train and equip plans

for this critical part of our counter-terrorism strategy.

3. (C) DG ISI Pasha, whom you met in last week's bilateral and

trilateral strategic review in Washington, continues to

profess a determination to end ISI's overt and tacit support

for proxy forces in the tribal areas, Afghanistan and Kashmir.

Interior Minister Malik is Zardari's point man on law and

order and also serves as a political negotiator. Malik is very

supportive of the U.S., but he wants to control every key

issue personally, making it difficult for his staff to take

any decisions without his approval. Intelligence Bureau (IB)

Director General Suddle was personally selected for the job by

Zardari after a bungled attempt to place ISI under the

Ministry of Interior, Zardari brought IB firmly under his

control. Federal Investigative Agency (FIA) Director General

Tariq Khosa is a well-respected cop, but he must work through

MOI Malik. End Summary.

Domestic Situation

------------------

4. (C) The civilian government headed by President Asif

Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Gilani, elected one year

ago, has been fairly stable. However, President Zardari has

been preoccupied with his political rival former Prime

Minister Nawaz Sharif. On February 25, Pakistan's Supreme

Court ruled that both Nawaz and his brother Shahbaz Sharif are

ineligible to hold public office Zardari followed that

decision by appointing his party's governor to rule in the

Punjab (Pakistan's most important province) pending elections

to replace Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister. This has sparked

country-wide protests and general political unrest. Nawaz

Sharif is by far the most popular politician in Pakistan (with

an 83% approval rating compared to Zardari's 20% in the latest

IRI poll), but he does not have the votes to bring down the

government. Instead, Nawaz Sharif is using popular outrage at

the Supreme Court decision and "governor's rule" to launch

street protests. Zardari may win the short-term tactical

battle against Nawaz however, Nawaz is gaining ground by

comparing Zardari's high-handed rule to that of former

President Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif is inspiring street

demonstrations to coincide with a lawyers' "Long March" on

March 12-16. The chance for violence and chaos is likely

during continued street protests.

5. (C) Although we do not believe Pakistan is a failed

ISLAMABAD 00000454 002 OF 004

state, we nonetheless recognize that the challenges the state

confronts are dire. The government is losing more and more

territory every day to foreign and domestic militant groups

deteriorating law and order in turn is undermining economicrecovery. The bureaucracy has settled into third-world

mediocrity, as demonstrated by corruption and a limited

capacity to implement or articulate policy. The court and

legal system is slow to the point of inertia due to almost


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non-existent case management. These problems extend to law

enforcement agencies, where the police are underpaid, lack

technical capacity, and face stiff political pressures.

Security

---------

6. (C) The good news is that the Army/Frontier Corps are

engaged in combat in the FATA and have just declared victory

after a six month long battle in the Bajaur Agency. Zardari is

committed to the fight he knows that Osama bin Laden has

publicly targeted Pakistan and admits "the militants are after

me and my job." The bad news is that the militants

increasingly are setting the agenda. The government's anti-

terrorism strategy is based on "dialogue, deterrence and

development" however, it lacks the military capacity to deter

militants and the financial resources to develop the FATA and

NWFP. Its historic fallback has been to play for time by

conducting negotiations with militants, a disastrous tactic

that only has made the extremists stronger. The government

insists it will negotiate with tribal leaders but not with

militants.

7. (C) However, in the latest agreement in Swat (once a

tourist resort approximately 90 miles from Islamabad), the

provincial government agreed to negotiate for peace in

exchange for imposition of Shari'a law with the Taliban. This

was recognition of de-facto Taliban control, which produced

beheadings, closure of girls' schools, a growing exodus of

terrified citizens, and the desertion of outgunned and

outmanned police. Ham-handed military tactics, which included

indiscriminate artillery bombardment, have further alienated a

population that simply wants the fighting to end. In just a

few short weeks, the deal is already proving to be an

unpalatable one, with the militants demanding more ground and

continuing violence against the civilian government.

8. (C) The military's decision in 2008 to strike a deal with

Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan

helped to reduce the number of suicide bombings in Pakistan

but gave Mehsud free rein to infiltrate his forces throughout

the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He has

exploited sectarian tensions and sent his fighters into Bajaur

via Afghanistan to attack government positions. This haseroded Chief of Army Staff General Kayani's strategy to

gradually regain control of the FATA agency by agency. Rival

Pakistani Taliban leaders Mehsud, Maulvi Nazir, and Gul

Bahadur have formed a new alliance which they claim will focus

on cross-border attacks. As recent media reports indicate, the

U.S. has been remarkably successful in disrupting al-Qaida

operations in Pakistan's tribal areas. In the past year, 10 of

the top 20 al-Qaida operatives, including those responsible

for the East Africa embassy bombings in 1998 and tied to

Islambad's Marriott bombing, have been eliminated.

Police/Law Enforcement

----------------------

9. (SBU) Although Pakistani security forces are now engaged in

active combat against extremists, they lack the capability to


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deal with militants and criminal activity in the FATA and

NWFP. The resulting decrease in security is impeding our

efforts to implement development projects in support of

critical U.S. national goals of eliminating terrorist safe

havens in Pakistan and stabilizing Afghanistan. While there is

a need for Pakistani military action now to deal with the

large number of heavily armed militants operating in the

border areas, the long-term solution to ensuring law and order

throughout the country lies primarily with the civilian law

enforcement agencies, not the military. To strengthen civilian

law enforcement, State Department's Bureau of International

Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL) expanded program in 2009

involves two tracks, the first focusing on establishing a

gendarmerie style force in NWFP suited for

ISLAMABAD 00000454 003 OF 004

engaging and defeating heavily armed militants and criminal

gangs. The second track involves expanding the current ICITAP,

DS/ATA and other efforts in providing specialist and advanced

training to specific elements of the Pakistani police

establishment.

10. (SBU) In conjunction with INL's police program, the

Department of State's Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program (ATA)

will focus on providing expanded training and consultation

opportunities to the NWFP, Balochistan, and federal areas to

expand rapidly the GOP's antiterrorist capabilities. This

expanded training will focus on building tactical, technical,

and investigative skill sets in specialized Pakistani law

enforcement agencies. Training for these and other units will

focus on "hard skill" tactical training (i.e. protecting VIPs,

quick reaction forces, explosives detection/disposal) mosturgently needed by the GOP given the deteriorating security

environment that it confronts. There will also be an expanded

effort to develop national and provincial-level forensics and

investigative capabilities and anti-kidnapping procedures. ATA

was instrumental in establishing and funding the FIA's Special

Investigative Group (SIG). In 2007, ATA offered to fund

expansion of the SIG by 100 officers and pay salaries for the

new officers we still await an official response from MOI.

11. (C) Through the Rewards for Justice program, the USG is

ready to assist Pakistan in establishing a National Safety

Hotline, through which MOI can collect information from

Pakistani citizens on terrorists and planned/executed

terrorist incidents in Pakistan. The GOP would serve as the

public "front" of the Rewards program all U.S. funding and

cooperation would remain discreet. The GOP would serve asthe

conduit for any eventual reward payments, and a DOD MIST team

has developed a media campaign in support of the Rewards

program. The GOP will provide daily logistical and

administrative support RSO will provide to administrative

personnel to assist in collecting the tip information.

Visa Processing

----------------

12. (C) Post-9/11 changes to improve U.S. border security have

dramatically increased the length of time it takes Pakistani


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citizens to obtain U.S. visitor visas. The local press and

many politicians repeatedly criticize delays in visa

processing and difficulties encountered at U.S. ports of

entry, often citing them as examples of U.S. bias against

Pakistan. On a practical level, the delays impair U.S. efforts

to train law enforcement and military personnel, and to

promote exchanges and academic programs with civilian

authorities. While the USG does not comment on the reasons for

the delay, Pakistan authorities know that an interagency

security clearance process, which includes the FBI, is the

main factor. You may hear complaints about this issue during

your meetings in Islamabad, as well as calls for more effort

on the U.S. part to improve the process.

Mumbai

------

13. (C) Indo-Pak tensions are still simmering, but to avoid a

potential Indian military strike, the GOP needs to continue to

show progress on prosecuting those Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)

operatives responsible for the Mumbai attacks. On February 12,

the GOP filed official charges against 13 suspects, including

LeT leaders Javed Iqbal Laqvi, Zarrar Shah, and Abu al-Qama.

Currently the Federal Investigative Agency (FIA) has at least

7 of these suspects in custody and they face charges under

Pakistan's penal code, cyber crimes regulations, and the Anti-

Terrorism Act. India has welcomed the GOP decision to file

formal charges against the key masterminds of Mumbai

Islamabad now awaits an Indian response to requests for

additional information (32 questions, including request for

forensics, ballistics reports, etc) from New Delhi to support

prosecution. Based on the Indian response, Pakistan willconsider sending an FIA team to New Delhi to follow up we

should encourage that team to go to New Delhi and continue to

press for additional closures of LeT camps and Jamaat-ud-Dawa

"charitable" activities, particularly in Punjab. The issue of

FBI access to the Mumbai detainees remains a politically

sensitive one you will want to raise directly with MOI Malik.

ISLAMABAD 00000454 004 OF 004

Kidnapping Cases

----------------

14. (S) The Embassy appreciates ongoing FBI support to resolve

a significant number of kidnapping cases involving Amcits in

Pakistan. We will update you on current efforts to secure the

release of UNHCR representative John Solecki and New York

Times reporter David Rohde. A video of Mr. Solecki was

released on February 13 which was accompanied by a statement

demanding the release of Baloch prisoners in the hands of the

government. The Baloch Liberation United Front (BLUF - a

previously unknown group) is holding Solecki and made fresh

demands on March 1 that all incarcerated women be released

within 72 hours or BLUF will kill Solecki. The GOP continuesto insist that Brahamdagh Bugti, a Baloch separatist leader,

is responsible for the kidnapping.

PATTERSON

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