Tsc
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muhammad-sadiq-aftab -
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Transcript of Tsc
Technology S-‐Curve Analysis (TSC) is a method for determining the rela;onship between investment in improving technology and pay back in corresponding market sales. Typically, the curve takes the shape of an S given the phases of market development aBer an ini;al period of technology development, including: (1) market launch with significant adver;sing and promo;on and slow growth up to an inflec;on point in the S curve signaling market awareness, (2) spontaneous sales growth, (3) maturity and decline. TSC Analysis is par;cularly useful in the period proceeding launching a new technology, as launching new technology is a unique exercise in managing uncertainty. Of the many uncertain;es involved, the largest include: technological feasibility, market ;ming, high ini;al costs, range of markets, first-‐;me buyers, price, compe;;ve vola;lity, required capital investment. TSC Analysis provides an intelligent framework for trea;ng these issues comprehensively. During later stages of a technology, the TSC provides a framework for assessing the remaining life of the technology. This can be extremely valuable for developing business strategy, shiBing resources away from exis;ng technologies before they become obsolete to investments in next-‐genera;on technologies.
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Purpose: TSC Analysis provides five major elements of intelligence: • Iden;fica;on of the current technology life-‐span in the industry • Es;mate of poten;al technological limits and discon;nui;es in the industry • Understanding the economics of technological innova;on: ;ming and magnitude of industry change • Assessment of company’s posi;on on the S curve • Quan;fica;on of innova;on investment vs. payoff Use: • Iden;fy performance drivers for a technology • Develop strategy based on the company’s posi;on on the S curve • Guide R&D efforts, ra;onale, ;ming and alloca;on of limited R&D resources • Determine feasible limits and corresponding level of investment in technology • Track performance improvement of key drivers versus effort expended
Exhibit at a glance
TECHNOLOGY S CURVE ANALYSIS
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