Technology  S-­‐Curve  Analysis  (TSC)  is  a  method  for  determining  the  rela;onship  between  investment  in  improving  technology  and  pay  back  in  corresponding  market  sales.    Typically,  the  curve  takes  the  shape  of  an  S  given  the  phases  of  market  development  aBer  an  ini;al  period  of  technology  development,  including:  (1)  market  launch  with  significant  adver;sing  and  promo;on  and  slow  growth  up  to  an  inflec;on  point  in  the  S  curve  signaling  market  awareness,  (2)  spontaneous  sales  growth,  (3)  maturity  and  decline.    TSC  Analysis  is  par;cularly  useful  in  the  period  proceeding  launching  a  new  technology,  as  launching  new  technology  is  a  unique  exercise  in  managing  uncertainty.    Of  the  many  uncertain;es  involved,  the  largest  include:    technological  feasibility,  market  ;ming,  high  ini;al  costs,  range  of  markets,  first-­‐;me  buyers,  price,  compe;;ve  vola;lity,  required  capital  investment.    TSC  Analysis  provides  an  intelligent  framework  for  trea;ng  these  issues  comprehensively.    During  later  stages  of  a  technology,  the  TSC  provides  a  framework  for  assessing  the  remaining  life  of  the  technology.    This  can  be  extremely  valuable  for  developing  business  strategy,  shiBing  resources  away  from  exis;ng  technologies  before  they  become  obsolete  to  investments  in  next-­‐genera;on  technologies.  

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Purpose:    TSC  Analysis  provides  five  major  elements  of  intelligence:  •     Iden;fica;on  of  the  current  technology  life-­‐span  in  the  industry  •     Es;mate  of  poten;al  technological  limits  and  discon;nui;es  in  the  industry  •     Understanding  the  economics  of  technological  innova;on:    ;ming  and  magnitude  of  industry  change  •     Assessment  of  company’s  posi;on  on  the  S  curve  •     Quan;fica;on  of  innova;on  investment  vs.  payoff    Use:    •     Iden;fy  performance  drivers  for  a  technology  •     Develop  strategy  based  on  the  company’s  posi;on  on  the  S  curve  •     Guide  R&D  efforts,  ra;onale,  ;ming  and  alloca;on  of  limited  R&D  resources  •     Determine  feasible  limits  and  corresponding  level  of  investment  in  technology  •     Track  performance  improvement  of  key  drivers  versus  effort  expended  

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 TECHNOLOGY  S  CURVE  ANALYSIS  

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