Trolley Case Study Overview: March, 2003

CO2 Emissions Reduction Potential for Santiago, Chile

Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D)International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

Funded by: Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)

Why Consider Electric Trolleys? Recommended by Steering Committee as a potential project in need of further analysisBenefits vs. diesel busesNo ground-level emissionsReduced maintenance costs & noisePotential to reduce CO2 emissionsSantiago has access to clean source of electricity

Range of Key Variables

Key VariablesLow-floor Articulated Electric TrolleyLow-entrance Articulated Diesel BusVehicle Price$500,000 - $550,000 (Skoda)$180,000 (CGTS)Infrastructure (per km)$130,000 - $260,000 (incremental)N/AEnergy Efficiency2.6 - 3.8 kWh / km2.0 - 2.4 km / LEnergy Price$0.10/kWh$0.45/literVehicle Life20 years14 yearsInterest Rate (%)12%12%

Key Operational Variables

Key VariablesLow-floor Articulated Electric TrolleyLow-entrance Articulated Diesel BusLength of Route12 kmStation Spacing500 mPassengers/hour15,000Vehicle Capacity125Mean Vehicle Speed24 km/hr22 km/hrMaintenance Reserve5%7.5%Number of Vehicles200215

1. Cost ComparisonsStep 1: Utilized a spreadsheet tool to compare costs of articulated diesel buses to articulated trolleysIncluded capital and operating costsAnnualized all costs

Annual Capital & Operating Costs

Annual Cost in $USDLow-floor Articulated Electric TrolleyLow-entrance Articulated Diesel BusFIXED Vehicle$16.8M - $18.5M$7.4M Infrastructure$0.2M - $0.5MN/AVARIABLE Energy$3.1M - $4.5M$2.3M - $2.8M Maintenance$8.6M$11.1M Labor$7.2M$7.6MTotal Cost$36.9M - 40.2M$29.2M - $29.7MIncremental Cost$7.2M - $11.0M

2. Energy UseStep 2: Calculated energy use Diesel: based on measurements in SantiagoAssumed articulated buses use 20% more energyTrolley: based on manufacturer data (SKODA)

3. CO2 EmissionsStep 3: Calculated CO2 emissions Electric Trolleys = estimates for Santiagos electric emissions (SIC grid)Assumed a range of generation mixesCalculated emissions based on generation estimatesDiesel Buses = Used standard factor

2010 Estimated Electricity Emissions for Santiago

Energy Source (tCO2/GWh)2010 Clean2010 Medium2010 DirtyHydro (0)61%50%50%New Thermal (392)17% 20%0%Thermal (758)22%30%50%Weighted Average233306379

4. Cost per ton CO2 Step 4: Estimated the Cost per tCO2 Based upon a range of cost variables for trolleys & diesel buses Framed a range of potential CO2 reductions from the use of electric trolleys

Range of CO2 Benefits From Electric Trolley

Trolley vs. DieselClean Trolley vs. Dirty DieselDirty Trolley vs. Clean DieselTrolley (kg CO2 /km)0.61.4Diesel (kg CO2 /km)1.31.1Annual Incremental Cost of Trolley$7.2 M$11.0 MtCO2 Savings (per yr)8,600- 4,000COST per tCO2 /yr$830n/a

Range of CO2 Benefits From Electric Trolley 100% Hydro

Trolley vs. DieselGreen Trolley vs. Dirty DieselGreen Trolley vs. Clean DieselTrolley (kg CO2 /km)0.0Diesel (kg CO2 /km)1.31.1Annual Incremental Cost of Trolley$7.2 M$11.0 MtCO2 Savings (per yr)16,00013,300COST per tCO2 /yr$450$830

Conclusions: Electric TrolleysLow CO2 benefits, high costs100% hydro-power increases CO2 benefits, but still expensiveAir quality, health and noise benefits not quantifiedTrolley technology may be more attractive to passengers than buses

Fin?Source: http://www.tbus.org.uk/gallery.htm

Carbon Market: This section is not for the slides.Price estimates:RIVM (Bert Metzs consulting firm): $2.5 $4.8 / ton of CO2 (or $9 $17.5 / ton C). Low end of range assumes hot air is not banked. High end assumes some hot air is banked. Too much detail for slides, but FYI--RIVM estimates price could be $30/ ton C if all hot air is banked. All of these estimate based on post-Marrakech Accords report, December 2001). Natsource: $1.75 $3 / ton of CO2 (or $6.4 11 / ton C). (I saw this estimate in a recent Greenwire)Market size (Perhaps not for slides, but FYI) RIVM: Estimates that if hot air is not banked, CDM market size will be 57 MtC over the first commitment period. Assuming price is $9/tC, carbon revenue would be $513 million. No estimates of market volume were provided assuming different hot air banking scenarios.