Trends, Stats And The Future Of The International Student Market Place
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Transcript of Trends, Stats And The Future Of The International Student Market Place
Trends, stats and the future of the
international student market
place
Janet Ilieva, PhD
Content
Stats and figures from the international student place: some comparative evidence
Emerging markets
Internationalisation and the challenges it poses: what do we do about them
Global Trends
• According to the OECD (2007) over 2.7 million students enrolled outside their home country in 2005
• Over 120 million students study in Higher Education across the world (UNESCO 2007 and BC estimates)
• Global proportion of all students studying overseas (in relation to the tertiary education in country expansion) has only increased by 2% for the same period
• Students from China estimate more 15% of the total internationally mobile students, (they represent 20% of the non-EU population and 15% of the total international student population in UK).
HE Students Studying Overseas (in millions)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: OECD (2007), Education at a Glance.
Global Market Share
Over half of the students (52%) study in four countries (US, UK, Germany and France). Compared to 2000, this is a decrease from the 56% which these countries used to host
The loss in market share over the past 5 years has been absorbed predominantly by the USA, and to a smaller extent UK and Germany
Time series for some key host countries 1995 - 2006
Key Competitor Countries' Growth Rates
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
US
UK
Germany
Australia
US and UK:MalaysiaS KoreaThailandIndonesia
China, HKThailandIndonesiaMiddle East
China 13,000India 17%
Nigeria 30%Thailand 10%Middle East &
NA
Mainly China 36% India 45%
Countries prioritisation
•Importance driven by size: any minor changes in demand from a big country would have massive implications for each education provider
•Growth dynamics: strategic importance, set to increase in future
BUT: increased dependency on fewer markets for UK
Country 1998/99 Country 2006/07
Malaysia 12632 China 50020
United States 10981 India 23910
Hong Kong 8289 United States 22245
Singapore 6016 Malaysia 11870
Japan 5686 Nigeria 11150
Norway 4055
China 4017
Taiwan 3570
India 3498
Total 1998/99 117290 Total non-EU 2006/07 249450
Countries sourcing 50% of the non-EU population in 1998 and 2006
Source: HESA Student Record
Countries sourcing half of the students in UK, US and Australia
USA UK Australia 2006
India 83,833 China 50,020 China 45,873
China 67,723 India 23,910 India 25,085
Korea, Republic of 62,392 United States 22,245 Malaysia 14,897
Japan 35,282 Malaysia 11,870
Taiwan 29,094 Nigeria 11,150
Grand total 582,984 Total non-EU 249450 Grand total 171,246
Grand total 376190
Source: Institute of International Education (2007); HESA Student Record (2008) and Australia Education International (2007).
Emerging markets in UK
Countries growing at a rate higher than the UK average growth rate
Emerging markets Australia
Logarithmic scale
Host countries in changing context
•Major host countries’ growth rates have slowed down
•Diversity of different mode of delivery: increasing importance of trans-national education
•The length of time students study in UK is decreasing with increased popularity of postgraduate courses (up to 1 year)
•Rise of non-English Speaking Countries as education hosts;
•Expanding usage of English as language of instruction beyond the main English speaking countries
The distinction between sending and hosting countries becoming more blurred: increasingly traditional sending countries are becoming host countries: e.g. China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and others
•Increased and improved in country provision of education
Competition: increasingly sending countries becoming host countries
China Japan Malaysia
Korea 57504 China 74292 Indonesia 7541
Japan 18363Republic of Korea 15974 China 7310
United State 11784 Taiwan 4211 Bangladesh 6517
Vietnam 7310 Malaysia 2156 Pakistan 1956
Indonesia 5652 Vietnam 2119 Nigeria 1813
Total 162,695 Total 117,927 Total 44,390
Implications for UK
•Increasingly students are coming to the UK for shorter courses, i.e. PGT degrees (55% of the non-EU students are PG)
•Majority of the students in PG studies are from overseas
• Dependency of wide range of subjects at postgraduate level on overseas students (hence threat on the vitality of these subjects if demand contracts); Highest risk for subjects like Engineering and Technology, Business related subjects, Computer and Mathematical sciences, etc.
•Increased effort and cost of recruitment: currently 54% of the total students have to be recruited on annual bases (this is over 202,000 students each year), in order to maintain 0% growth
Brazil
Major host countries for Brazilian students 2006-07
USA, 7126, 64%
Japan, 316, 3%
Australia, 470, 4%
Germany, 1726, 16%
UK, 1385, 13%
Source: AEI, Statistics Canada, DAAD, IIE, HESA, Dept. of Education NZ, JASSO
Russia
Source: AEI, Statistics Canada, DAAD, IIE, HESA, Dept. of Education NZ, JASSO
Students from Brazil: May Data (various years)
Students from Brazil in Australia 2006 - 2008
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ELICOS
VET
Higher Education
Schools
Other
Source: Australia Education International
Further Education
• Slow down (-1%) in 2006 the FE enrolments from international students compared to the previous year.
• EU countries: 12% growth
• Non EU countries: -12% growth
• Decline in the non-EU countries mainly contributed by decline in China and other major sending countries:
• China -20%
• Pakistan -7%
• Japan -3%
• Iran -8%
FE issues:
Decline in China mainly driven by*:• Increase in foundation programmes on offer in China• Expansion of recruitment into Local HE • More competition within Asia• Wider VET offer in competitor countries• Shift in the demand from UG to PG courses
• Highest growth in non-EU countries recorded in:• India 7% (as from this year India is the largest non-EU market)• Libya 44%• Saudi Arabia 41% • Continuous growth in South Korea 9%
*Acknowledgement: based on comments from Jazreel Goh and Nicole de Lalouviere, British Council Beijing.
Emerging FE Markets in UK
FE Emerging Markets
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Year
Cou
ntry
's m
arke
t sha
re g
row
th in
UK India
UAENigeria
S. KoreaLibya
S. Arabia
Highest growth marked by India: market share 1.8% in 2002 increased to 10.2% in 2005
Emerging FE Market in Australia
Beyond statistics
•Most current data are at least 1.5 years out of date;
•UK data issues: FE data unreliable (no central record); HE data slower in publishing than other countries (Germany, US, Australia)
•Issue: most of the PGT students reported would have left by the time statistics are made available
•British Council approach:
• Introducing Early reporting scheme through the Education UK Partnership (for HE and FE institutions beyond the partnership)
• Running country specific forecasts in attempt to predict the future of international education in short to mid-term (with the Economist Intelligence Unit)
• On-line system tracking students’ decision making processes and aspirations for overseas study (in partnership with UK Visa and UCAS)
Early reporting project @ Education UK Partnership
Higher Education early reporting is voluntary data collection, based on HESES returns but for international students (based on 1 December marker each year)
•Recognising the need for access to national data on international students much earlier than is currently available through HESA – published up to 18 months after enrolment
•Providing an on-line facility to upload data
•Providing an on-line data mining tool to allow participating institutions access to the data
•Thorough data validation procedures prior data publishing (30 universities have taken part so far)
•FE data collection: in progress
Decisions! Decisions! Decisions!
•Why use the student decision making data
• Verifying our knowledge about the market
• Turning anecdotal evidence into empirical evidence
• Capturing shifts in demand before it is too late
• Insight into the student choices at city level
• Allows on-line tracking of the student choice
HESA 2006-07
Student Decision Making (current)
Source: HESA (2006);Student Decision Making Survey, © British Council
Future vs. Past PGT Demand in China
PGT demand at city level in China (2007 and 2008)
PGT students in Beijing
PGT students in Shanghai
Source: Student Decision Making Survey, © British Council
What does the future hold - forecasting the international student mobility
Project carried out with the Economist Intelligence Unit• The aim of the project was to develop a forecasting tool, which will
produce predictions on international student demand for education in the UK
• The predictions need to be:• country specific (vs. predictions for 140 countries)• Short-term to mid-term (vs. long-term)
• The model prototype was developed for China and then replicated in other major source countries
• An important additional objective was to calculate a price elasticity for the countries where the student mobility will be forecasted (i.e. China) and other country specific parameters
• Allow the user to use the model independently, change parameters and produce scenarios
Structure
Total enrolments model
International students model
Competitor model
Number of Chinese households with sufficient income for sizeable discretionary education spending set to increase strongly…
China – Income range families 2006 US$: >15,001
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Rapidl
y exp
andin
g pot
ential
mar
ket s
ize
…but China faces a rapidly ageing demographic profile with the number of 17-22 year olds expected to peak in the next few years
China – Total population, '000s 17-22 year olds
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2010 represents peak
Households in China
Households in China (as a % of the total households) with children and income > US$15,000
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3. Competitor model
Pooling data from 8 countries:
Relative tuition fees (UK=100)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Australia
Canada
France
Germany
Japan
New Zealand
UK
USA
3. Competitor model
Pooling data from 8 countries:
International trade with China ($ m)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
AustraliaCanadaFranceGermanyJapanNew ZealandUnited KingdomUnited States
UK Market Share in China: Forecast
Chinese students coming to UK as a % of total students studying abroad
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
The Model