Trends in Food, Markets and Farms: Findings from USDA's Economic Research Service

8/20/2019 Trends in Food, Markets and Farms: Findings from USDA's Economic Research Service

1/33

Trends in food, markets and farms:

findings from USDA’s

Economic Research ServiceLunch~N~Learn

National Coalition for Food and Agricultural Research

March 23, 2015

Mary Bohman, Ph.D.

Administrator


2/33

Inform and enhance public

and private decision

making on economic and

policy issues related to

agriculture, food, the

environment, and rural

development.

ERS mission


3/33

Research & statistics that track the

status of the food, ag & rural economy

• Key role in WASDE,

USDA Baseline

•

Farm income• Agricultural productivity

• Status of rural economy

•

Food security of U.S.households

• Food access measures


4/33

ERS provides research

to inform policy decisions

• Analysis of 2014

Farm Act

•Child nutrition andWIC reauthorization

• Livestock Mandatory

Price Reporting Act(to expire on

September 30, 2015)


5/33

ERS website

provides research

and data … andsocial media

expands our reach

Twitter:

https://twitter.com/

USDA_ERS www.ers.usda.gov


6/33

Need something else …

•

Contact ERS directly withspecific questions

• Start with Steve

Crutchfield, ERS Assistant

Administrator

(202-694-5406,

[email protected])

• Subject specialists listedon website


7/33

Trends in food, markets and farms:

findings from USDA’s

Economic Research Service


8/33

Trends in the American diet

Food industry responds to consumer demandfor health, convenience, and other traits


9/33

America’s away -from-home spending

continues to increase…


10/33

10

…contributing to a larger Food Services share

and smaller Farm Share of the Food Dollar


11/33

Calorie by food group, 1970 and 2010

610

430

206

193

Note: Food Availability data serve as proxies for food consumption.

Added fats and oils and added sugars are added to foods during processing or preparation. They do not include naturally-occurring fats and sugars in food (e.g., fats

in meat or sugars in fruits).

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data.

274

247

367

333

545

529

346

590

1970

2010

Dairy

Caloricsweeteners Grains

Meat, eggs, andnuts Added fats and oilsand dairy fats

Fruit and vegetables

Calories from grains, added fats and

oils, and sweeteners have increased …


12/33

…so that eating trends are not consistent

with recommendations

i di li


13/33

Consumers try to improve diet quality…have shifted to healthier milk options,

while consuming more cheese and less fluid milk

U.S. per capita consumption of fluid milk and cheese, 1970-2010


14/33

14

…but time and other constraints can make

healthy food choices challenging at times

514 491

213 241

162132

117115

74 111

259 273

34 20

68 57

0

160

320

480

640

800

960

1120

1280

1440

All U.S. adults Fast-food purchasers

M i n u t e s

Eating and drinking

Meal preparation and cleanup

Other activities**

Travel

Socializing & leisure

Television

Work

Sleep

**Other activities include grooming,

housework, caring activities,

sports/exercise, and shopping.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using

2003-11 American Time Use Survey data.


15/33

Regulations prompted industry to

reformulate toward low-transfat products


16/33

US agriculture operates in

dynamic global markets

Growing importance of global markets

for U.S. agriculture


17/33

USDA Baseline forecasts growth in global trade

of soybean, coarse grains and wheat


18/33

Higher incomes have increased demand

for food in developing countries

• Sales todeveloping

countries now

account for two-thirds of U.S.

agricultural

exports


19/33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

$ b i l l i o n

October/September U.S. fiscal years

U.S. agricultural exports

Mexico

Canada

China

Rest of World

The top 3 U.S. ag markets—China, Canada,

and Mexico—account for about

45 percent of U.S. exports


20/33

Chinese imports are growing

New ERS

data vizallows

users to

interact

with data

and charts


21/33

U.S. exports to China are growing


22/33

US farms: increasing farm size and

evolving market opportunities

f ll b l f


23/33

18.1

37.6

27.9

5.4 5.4

2.6

0.2

2.8

0.8

4.6

6.9

10.8

20.2

27.8

13.715.2

9.5

19.420.8

9.7

15.414.0

3.6

7.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Retirement Off-farmoccupation

Low-sales Moderate-sales

Midsize Large Very large Nonfamily

Farms

Value of production

Farm assets

Smal l fami ly farms

Large-scale

fami ly farms

Farming-occupation

Percent of U.S. farms,

production, or assets,2012

Note: Small family farms have gross cash farm income (GCFI) < $350,000. Midsize family farms have GCFI of $350,000-$999,999.Large-scale family farms have GCFI of $1,000,000 or more.Source: 2014 Family Farm Report (in review), using data from 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey.

Most U.S. farms are small, but large farms

account for most production

C di i i diff


24/33

Commodity orientation differs

by size and type of farm

1Sheep, lambs, wool, goats, goats’ milk, mohair, horses, ponies, mules, donkeys, bees, honey, aquaculture, mink, rabbits, other fur bearing

animals, bison, deer, elk, llamas, etc.2High value crops are vegetables, fruits and tree nuts, and nursery and greenhouse.

Source: 2014 Family Farm Report, in review, relying on 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey, Phase III.

Large-scale family farms

Midsize family farms56.4

51.1 47.7

31.526.3 23.5

12.6 11.4 8.9

25.5

21.0

16.916.7

17.9 28.835.9

17.012.7

23.2

24.8

15.4

21.4

17.5

29.9

37.134.7

48.3

40.4

59.4

35.0

7.2 10.618.1 20.8

7.7 5.9

22.1

35.5

8.514.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent of commodity production

Nonfamily farms

Type of farm:

Small family farms

Commodity


25/33

Farms size continues to increase

Midpoint(weighted

median)

acreageprovides a

good measure

with a skewed

distribution


26/33

Not just field c rops …

• 37 fruit, vegetable, nut, & berry crops

– Covering over 90% of acreage

– Midpoints increased for 36 of 37 over 1987-2012

– Mean increase was 146%, median was 116%

– 29 with increases in 2007-12; mean was 18%

• From 1987 to 2012, the mid-point dairy

herd increased from 80 to 900 cows


27/33

U.S. farm consolidation is …

• Long-term, ongoing and widespread

• Drivers

–Technology: better faster equipment,

pest management practices

–Organizational innovations: specialization

of production into stages (hogs), via

contracts, via hiring custom services


28/33

What else has not happened?

• But, not really very “corporate”—still

dominated by family businesses

• Few corporatized farming businesses

–

Crop farms are getting larger, but none havemore than 50,000 hectares of cropland

– Livestock is more mixed

• Integrators control vertical chains in hogs, poultry

– But contract with growers

• Some cattle feeders own multiple large feedlots

• Some individuals own multiple large dairy farms


29/33

A diverse U.S. agricultural sector:

Local food systems and small farms

• Local and regional food systems are gaining

interest among consumers

•Direct-to-consumer sales increased by 32percent between 2002 and 2007, but have

been flat since. Intermediated sales may have

grown.

• Small farms handle 33 percent of local sales

(compared to 25 percent of all farm sales).


30/33

Direct to consumer sales take place across U.S.,

but most occur in Northeast and West Coast

Di t t C (DTC) f


31/33

Direct to Consumer (DTC) farms:

More likely to survive, less likely to grow

S


32/33

Summary:

Trends in food, markets & farms

• Food and farming continue to change in

response to

– Consumers balancing time and desire to eat better

– Food industry providing convenience and meetingconsumer demand for taste and health

– Global market opportunities expand with income

growth in developing countries – New technology and innovations in organization

– Evolving market opportunities including local foods


33/33

ERS website: www.ers.usda.gov

Twitter:

https://twitter.com/USDA_ERS

For more information

Trends in Food, Markets and Farms: Findings from USDA's Economic Research Service

Documents

Transcript of Trends in Food, Markets and Farms: Findings from USDA's Economic Research Service