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Trends in food, markets and farms:
findings from USDA’s
Economic Research ServiceLunch~N~Learn
National Coalition for Food and Agricultural Research
March 23, 2015
Mary Bohman, Ph.D.
Administrator
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Inform and enhance public
and private decision
making on economic and
policy issues related to
agriculture, food, the
environment, and rural
development.
ERS mission
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Research & statistics that track the
status of the food, ag & rural economy
• Key role in WASDE,
USDA Baseline
•
Farm income• Agricultural productivity
• Status of rural economy
•
Food security of U.S.households
• Food access measures
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ERS provides research
to inform policy decisions
• Analysis of 2014
Farm Act
•Child nutrition andWIC reauthorization
• Livestock Mandatory
Price Reporting Act(to expire on
September 30, 2015)
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ERS website
provides research
and data … andsocial media
expands our reach
Twitter:
https://twitter.com/
USDA_ERS www.ers.usda.gov
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Need something else …
•
Contact ERS directly withspecific questions
• Start with Steve
Crutchfield, ERS Assistant
Administrator
(202-694-5406,
• Subject specialists listedon website
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Trends in food, markets and farms:
findings from USDA’s
Economic Research Service
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Trends in the American diet
Food industry responds to consumer demandfor health, convenience, and other traits
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America’s away -from-home spending
continues to increase…
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10
…contributing to a larger Food Services share
and smaller Farm Share of the Food Dollar
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Calorie by food group, 1970 and 2010
610
430
206
193
Note: Food Availability data serve as proxies for food consumption.
Added fats and oils and added sugars are added to foods during processing or preparation. They do not include naturally-occurring fats and sugars in food (e.g., fats
in meat or sugars in fruits).
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data.
274
247
367
333
545
529
346
590
1970
2010
Dairy
Caloricsweeteners Grains
Meat, eggs, andnuts Added fats and oilsand dairy fats
Fruit and vegetables
Calories from grains, added fats and
oils, and sweeteners have increased …
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…so that eating trends are not consistent
with recommendations
i di li
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Consumers try to improve diet quality…have shifted to healthier milk options,
while consuming more cheese and less fluid milk
U.S. per capita consumption of fluid milk and cheese, 1970-2010
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14
…but time and other constraints can make
healthy food choices challenging at times
514 491
213 241
162132
117115
74 111
259 273
34 20
68 57
0
160
320
480
640
800
960
1120
1280
1440
All U.S. adults Fast-food purchasers
M i n u t e s
Eating and drinking
Meal preparation and cleanup
Other activities**
Travel
Socializing & leisure
Television
Work
Sleep
**Other activities include grooming,
housework, caring activities,
sports/exercise, and shopping.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using
2003-11 American Time Use Survey data.
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Regulations prompted industry to
reformulate toward low-transfat products
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US agriculture operates in
dynamic global markets
Growing importance of global markets
for U.S. agriculture
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USDA Baseline forecasts growth in global trade
of soybean, coarse grains and wheat
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Higher incomes have increased demand
for food in developing countries
• Sales todeveloping
countries now
account for two-thirds of U.S.
agricultural
exports
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
$ b i l l i o n
October/September U.S. fiscal years
U.S. agricultural exports
Mexico
Canada
China
Rest of World
The top 3 U.S. ag markets—China, Canada,
and Mexico—account for about
45 percent of U.S. exports
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Chinese imports are growing
New ERS
data vizallows
users to
interact
with data
and charts
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U.S. exports to China are growing
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US farms: increasing farm size and
evolving market opportunities
f ll b l f
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18.1
37.6
27.9
5.4 5.4
2.6
0.2
2.8
0.8
4.6
6.9
10.8
20.2
27.8
13.715.2
9.5
19.420.8
9.7
15.414.0
3.6
7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Retirement Off-farmoccupation
Low-sales Moderate-sales
Midsize Large Very large Nonfamily
Farms
Value of production
Farm assets
Smal l fami ly farms
Large-scale
fami ly farms
Farming-occupation
Percent of U.S. farms,
production, or assets,2012
Note: Small family farms have gross cash farm income (GCFI) < $350,000. Midsize family farms have GCFI of $350,000-$999,999.Large-scale family farms have GCFI of $1,000,000 or more.Source: 2014 Family Farm Report (in review), using data from 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey.
Most U.S. farms are small, but large farms
account for most production
C di i i diff
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Commodity orientation differs
by size and type of farm
1Sheep, lambs, wool, goats, goats’ milk, mohair, horses, ponies, mules, donkeys, bees, honey, aquaculture, mink, rabbits, other fur bearing
animals, bison, deer, elk, llamas, etc.2High value crops are vegetables, fruits and tree nuts, and nursery and greenhouse.
Source: 2014 Family Farm Report, in review, relying on 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey, Phase III.
Large-scale family farms
Midsize family farms56.4
51.1 47.7
31.526.3 23.5
12.6 11.4 8.9
25.5
21.0
16.916.7
17.9 28.835.9
17.012.7
23.2
24.8
15.4
21.4
17.5
29.9
37.134.7
48.3
40.4
59.4
35.0
7.2 10.618.1 20.8
7.7 5.9
22.1
35.5
8.514.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percent of commodity production
Nonfamily farms
Type of farm:
Small family farms
Commodity
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Farms size continues to increase
Midpoint(weighted
median)
acreageprovides a
good measure
with a skewed
distribution
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Not just field c rops …
• 37 fruit, vegetable, nut, & berry crops
– Covering over 90% of acreage
– Midpoints increased for 36 of 37 over 1987-2012
– Mean increase was 146%, median was 116%
– 29 with increases in 2007-12; mean was 18%
• From 1987 to 2012, the mid-point dairy
herd increased from 80 to 900 cows
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U.S. farm consolidation is …
• Long-term, ongoing and widespread
• Drivers
–Technology: better faster equipment,
pest management practices
–Organizational innovations: specialization
of production into stages (hogs), via
contracts, via hiring custom services
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What else has not happened?
• But, not really very “corporate”—still
dominated by family businesses
• Few corporatized farming businesses
–
Crop farms are getting larger, but none havemore than 50,000 hectares of cropland
– Livestock is more mixed
• Integrators control vertical chains in hogs, poultry
– But contract with growers
• Some cattle feeders own multiple large feedlots
• Some individuals own multiple large dairy farms
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A diverse U.S. agricultural sector:
Local food systems and small farms
• Local and regional food systems are gaining
interest among consumers
•Direct-to-consumer sales increased by 32percent between 2002 and 2007, but have
been flat since. Intermediated sales may have
grown.
• Small farms handle 33 percent of local sales
(compared to 25 percent of all farm sales).
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Direct to consumer sales take place across U.S.,
but most occur in Northeast and West Coast
Di t t C (DTC) f
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Direct to Consumer (DTC) farms:
More likely to survive, less likely to grow
S
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Summary:
Trends in food, markets & farms
• Food and farming continue to change in
response to
– Consumers balancing time and desire to eat better
– Food industry providing convenience and meetingconsumer demand for taste and health
– Global market opportunities expand with income
growth in developing countries – New technology and innovations in organization
– Evolving market opportunities including local foods
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ERS website: www.ers.usda.gov
Twitter:
https://twitter.com/USDA_ERS
For more information
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