Tindak Malaysia: The Die Is Cast
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Transcript of Tindak Malaysia: The Die Is Cast
1
Tindak Malaysia:Together we can make a
difference
PACABA L0:THE DIE IS CAST
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An assessment of the electoral & financial outlook for Malaysia.
What the numbers tell us and what conclusions to draw from it.
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6 POINTS:1. BN cannot lose,2. They know they are in
trouble. 3. Their solution: push Malaysia
into bankruptcy,4. IMF come in to clean up the
mess. Blame IMF for problems later,
5. New Rat Race System starts.6. You don’t have to believe a
word that is said!
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Questions:1. Where are we?2. How did we get here?3. Where are we headed?4. How can we make it better?
RATIONALE BEHIND TINDAKMALAYSIA.COM
TindakMalaysia
Tindak Malaysia supports the reason why the Election Commission was formed - to ensure elections in Malaysia are free and fair. (Elections Act S 5 (1a)) EC has to enjoy public confidence. (Federal Constitution Article 114)
A group of caring Malaysians carrying out community service
through voter education and PACABA Training.
MISSION & AGENDA
Our training is based on the election laws and is politically-neutral.We are pro-Rakyat and accept any party that is voted in freely and fairly.We believe that “Power Corrupts, And Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely”.We take the position that there must be checks and balances and that no one party should hold too much power.
HOUSE-KEEPING:
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• Mobile phone to silent mode,• Introduction,• Stickers,• Outline of Programme and duration,• Expected results.
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Tindak Malaysia strategy:• Understand the principles of
psychological warfare, • How is it used against us? • Develop self-defense measures.
Nations move in 50 to 60-year cycles!When politicians hold power for too long, they become arrogant, bullies and corrupt! The ABC’s of politics.
DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR ?Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means, legal and illegal, live a life of luxury, and preserve their dynasty in any way that they can (such as pampered intelligence and military services, cadres of corrupt cronies, discriminatory governance to divide the citizenry, and costly foreign support). The result is that these countries have been financially plundered, with an inhospitable business climate, an underdeveloped private sector and little economic and social progress. http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML22Ak02.html
Where is this place?Middle –east!
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THE RAT RACE SYSTEM
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Politics Economics
Social
1. POLITICS: ELECTORAL OUTLOOK:
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BN CANNOT LOSE,ALTHOUGH BN WANTS THE
PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THEY CAN LOSE!
Politics
Economics
Social
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WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY !
YearAlliance Party/BN* Opposition Total
seatsSeats % seats % vote Seats % seats % vote
1959 74 71.15 51.7 30 28.85 48.3 104
1964 89 85.58 58.5 15 14.42 41.5 104
1969 95 65.97 49.3 49 34.03 50.7 144
1974 135 87.66 60.7 19 12.34 39.3 154
1978 130 84.42 57.2 24 15.58 42.8 154
1982 132 85.71 60.5 22 14.29 39.5 154
1986 148 83.62 55.8 29 16.38 41.5 177
1990 127 70.55 53.4 53 29.45 46.6 180
1995 162 84.38 65.2 30 15.62 34.8 192
1999 148 76.68 56.5 45 23.32 43.5 193
2004 198 90.41 63.9 21 9.59 36.1 219
2008 140 62.61 52.2 82 36.93 47.8 222
2008 General elections
BN 140 MPs (63.1%) 8 states 50.27 % of votes
PR 82 MPs (36.9%) 5 states 46.75 % of votes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2008
2008 General electionsPutra Jaya (BN)
Smallest6608 voters
Kapar (PKR)Largest
112,224 voters
Voters ratio = 1:17Even the 2nd smallest seat, Lawas, has
15,717, which is 2.4 times larger!
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Selangor ConstituenciesSame DUN but
separated by land and sea
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N45 SELAT KELANGSame DUN but
separated by land and sea
WHAT IS GERRYMANDERING ?
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Four evenly matched districtsRedrawing of boundaries to give three-district advantage to Party 2
All districts produce an even votingratio for each party
District A,B,C votes 90% for Party 2District D votes 90% for Party 1
Party 1 Party 2SOURCE: http://www.comprofessor.com/2010/10/gerrymandering-through-corporate.html
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One Voter One Vote ?
Question: Do the Chinese & Indians decide for a simple majority?
Courtesy of the famous retiree: Ng CN
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DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million.2008, BN contested 139 seats to win 112 seats. 2.08 million votes required (19%).
Total voter population: 10,922,140Total Parliament seats: 222Simple majority: 112 seats
Do you agree that 2 million can decide for 28 million?
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The smallest 112 seats come from:Sabah, incl Labuan: 26, Sarawak: 25,Johor: 13,Perak: 12,Pahang: 8,(Peninsular Malaysia: 61) For simple majority rule, rural Bumis decide. Only for 2/3 majority, the non-Bumis have a say! (Show Sabah & Sarawak powerpoint)
Seats can be increased after Mar 2011 but need 2/3 majority. BN can even create 200 Putrajayas!
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Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 - 28
13 = Sarawak
12 = Sabah
Majority Sabah & Sarawak
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Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 29 - 56
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Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 57 - 84
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Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 85 - 112
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Point No. 1: BN cannot lose.Is that the reason we have such blatant corruption and inequality?
Is it a coincidence that the poorest groups with the worst infrastructure, education and health-care facilities, are the king-makers?
Is it a coincidence that the natives are driven off their land to join the urban poor?
MODEL MENTAL – THE PYRAMID
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It’s good to belong to the Ruling Class!
States with the highest incidence of poverty: Sabah & Sarawak
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Results of not paying attention:Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for more than 50 years since 1957.
Consequences: 700 Constitutional amendments since 1957.Compare with US, 234 years old: Only 27 Constitutional amendments.Answer: You have to avoid a 2/3 majority to prevent too much power in the hands of the Ruling Party.
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21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment:Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter difference to less than 15% removed.
Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses were repealed by Act 14/1962, sub-section 22 (c)
Source: (page 197)http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf
BREAK:Play Rumah Nyawin
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THE RAT RACE SYSTEM
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Politics Economics
Social
2. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PEOPLE REALIZE THAT
CHANGE IS NOT POSSIBLE THROUGH ELECTIONS?
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Politics
Economics
Social
They start looking for alternatives!
CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungry and angry, they have nothing left to lose !
TUNISIA
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EGYPT
When the Western powers decide that the present regime has to go.
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Greek economy reaches crisis point
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UK shaken by riots & civil disorder
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Do we want this? No!
3. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
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WE GO BANKRUPT BY 2013!
DATA SOURCES
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BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon
DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report
GLC’s: Annual Accounts
CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to obscurity of some of the figures in the Treasury Report.
GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak
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NATIONAL DEBT –
Govt BondsUSD 179.8 B
13.01.2011USD 44B rolled over last year!
THOMPSON REUTERS EIKON
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Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon
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NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s
USD 19.5 Billion
GLC: Govt-linked cos
USD Million
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DOMESTIC DEBT
USD 125.9 BillionUSD 136 B :
57% Debt/GDP
06.11
31st Dec
In 3 ½ years, domestic debt has gone up by 70%!
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TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B
Countries that collapsed atDebt/GDP:Ireland, Dec 2010: 96%Greece, May 2010: 134%Malaysia 144% Jun 2011: 144%!
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TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B
WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?
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CAN IT GET WORSE?
Debt/GDP: 139%, annual deficit: 4 – 5%
Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income. How can the Govt afford giving out RM 500 per head? What’s the source?
CAN WE AFFORD THIS?
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RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 million students: RM 260 million,One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 million students: RM 530 million.RM 500 for 3.4 million households: RM 1.8 billion,Civil servants increment 7% - 13%,Money given today will be taken back via GST tomorrow – Anil Netto: Atimes
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WE PRODUCE 100,000 UNEMPLOYABLE GRADS
ANNUALLY. WHERE ARE THEY ?
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%Bureaucracy as % of
Population
1.4 M Civil Servants, 3 M RELA = 4.4 M
How long can this go on?Problem: Low productivity, poor work attitude, corrupt, entitlement-mentality. Does a change of govt solve these problems?
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WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ?
P: PortugalI: IrelandI: ItalyG: GreeceS: Spain
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ? • THEY GET SLAUGHTERED !• Bond yields shoot sky-high• Is that Malaysia’s fate ?
58
GREECE• Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut !
In late October 2011, euro-zone governments called on Greece to secure a 50% write-down on the debt held by private creditors. Greece offered 25% only.
Must charge very high interest to compensate – more than 100%!Source: Wallstreet Journal
59
• We have oil palm!• We have oil & gas!• We have electronics & electricals!• We have high savings rate – EPF!
BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT !
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In 2009, Robert Kuok was forced to sell off his sugar monopoly to some “businessmen”.
Don’t mess with Robert !Kuok.How has it hurt us?
• Robert Kuok invested in the world’s largest sugar mill in Australia. Our international sugar price went up.
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SUGAR PRICE
International sugar price goes down
World price dropped but domestic price went up by 40%!
Why ?
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Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm import from Malaysia but no deal.• Why?• Robert Kuok’s Arowana Cooking Oil controls
40% of China domestic oil palm refining• Then Robert Kuok decided to invest USD 10 B in Indonesia oil palm. That’s our lowest-cost competitor! Will it hurt us?
Blowback from grab of Robert Kuok’s sugar business in Malaysia (click to see link)
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• We become net importer by 2014, 2015!
• Govt demanding more and more money from Petronas.
• Petronas tried to stop the outflow.• So previous CEO forced out & replaced
with Najib nominee. • Ex-CEO now working for Singapore.
BUT WE STILL HAVE OIL & GAS.
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• This depends on foreign countries.• Europe is in serious trouble.• So’s the US.• Even China is having a housing bubble
and if her exports are hit for her biggest market (Europe), she will import less from Malaysia.
• Outlook does not look good.
WHAT ABOUT ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICALS?
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NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA !
Property crashing - Chinese ghost town: http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/1928-China-Crash-Coming-China-That-Urban-Empty-Feeling?highlight=china+ghost+cities
CHINA IS LANDING ! HARD OR SOFT ?
The soft landing view foresees Chinese central technocrats responding timely with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary policies that maintain GDP growth of around 8%, the annual rate Beijing must achieve to absorb new graduates into the work force and keep unemployment manageable.
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The hard landing scenario predicts that an uncontrolled implosion of the property market will unleash waves of wealth destruction, a credit crunch and consumption collapse that no amount of government intervention will be able to meaningfully forestall.
Southeast Asia will inevitably be among the worst hit by a soft or hard landing in China.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ML22Ae02.html
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• Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from international market as we are in the same situation as Greece.
• So they tap into EPF for cheap funding.• By now 60% is gone!• That’s our retirement savings!
OUR GOOD OLD EPF WILL SAVE US !
Don’t feel bad. Govts do this as a matter of routine when they get into trouble.http://malaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in-Trouble2.pdf
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IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT
Greece outlook: Look at Greece’s situation• Expulsion from EU,• New currency with massive devaluation, • Job loss,• Drop in wages, • Sale of state assets, • Cost-cutting – pensions, subsidies, civil
service, welfare aid, govt services,
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• Petronas, banks and insurance cos forced to buy low interest Govt bonds,
• Equivalent loans from international market will exceed 10% interest,
LOCAL IMPLICATIONS
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/civil-servants-fear-losing-jobs-in-iwk-restructure/
Restructuring and down-sizing Govt, slash pensions, subsidies, govt services.
71
DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW?
RM 39,000/person! Highest in the world per capita!
GFI reports that Malaysia lost USD 338 Billion (RM 1.08 trillion) from year 2000 – 2009. 5th largest in the world!
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How much is RM 1.08 Trillion?
RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket!
For the smallest 112 seats,each voter lost RM 73,000
Equal 75% of US Govt’s gold in Fort Knox!
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Equal to RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket!
Capital flight RM 150 B in 2009, 24% of GDP !Where did this money come from ?3 x KL MRT
RM 250,000/family !
Watch out for a currency crash!
BREAK:Play M4C Part 2
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Salaries in Gold
An Amah in 1970 earned more than a Graduate today?!!
VS
1970 Amah 2010 Graduate0.39
0.4
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.49
Monthly Salary (oz of gold)
Monthly Salary (oz of gold)
0.426 oz
0.476 oz
CASHING OUT !PUSHING MALAYSIA TO
BANKRUPTCY !
DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ?
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Never mind, they will find some suckers in the KLSE to buy their shares during listing. Lim Teck Ghee warning.
FELDA: Dr. Tan Kee Kwong, ex-Dep Min of Primary Industries: In 2001, FELDA had RM 4.5B cash. They should make RM 2 B per year. By 2011 they should have RM 25B cash. Instead, they owe EPF RM 6.5 B. Why ?
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KL MRT 12 times cost ofBeijing – Shanghai High Speed Train.Not economical – sure bankrupt.
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KLIA2: COST JUMPED FROM RM 1.6 B TO RM 3.9 B WITH 1 YEAR DELAY !
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• Sg Besi Airport land, worth RM 5.2 B but sold for only RM 1.6 B !
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• Regain 2/3 majority to shore up power,• Put all the laws in place to control
dissent,• Push country to bankruptcy. • Bring IMF in to do the dirty work,• Millions lose their jobs,• Civil servants chopped by 2/3,
WHAT’S THE PLAN?
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• Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for repression by the police
PREPARING FOR UNREST !
As law-abiding citizens, it is our duty to obey the law. Let all Malaysians stay home for 1 week!
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1st JAN 2012: START OF POLICE STATE ?
UPSI 01.01.12: The president of undergraduate movement Bebas, Muhammad Safwan Anang taken to Slim River hospital in critical condition
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EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL
• SOVEREIGN DEFAULT:• Italy,• Greece,• Spain,• France,• UK,• US,• China
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WHAT ARE THE DANGERS ?
• Banks or bank holidays,• Capital control,• Commercial property & housing,• Borrowings and high-gearing for
businesses,• Mortgages for speculative investments,• Shares,• Mutual funds,• EPF.• Police State
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Bank Runs
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NEW MALAYSIAN
EXPORT: MAIDS & LABOUR
Maybe to Indonesia!
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HYPER-INFLATION
Zimbabwe, Nov 2007: USD 1 = Zimbabwe Dollars 1 million.
1 year later, it was ZDR 250 billion!
Where Will We End Up??
1. Uneven development along group lines,2. Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the
State,3. Progressive deterioration of public
services,4. Widespread violation of human rights,5. Security apparatus as “state within a
state”,6. Rise of factionalised elites7. Demographic pressures,8. Massive amount of refugees,9. Legacy of vengeance-seeking groups over past
grievances,10. Chronic & sustained human flight,11. Sharp & severe economic decline,12. Intervention of other states or external factors.
12 FACTORS OF A FAILED STATE. WE ARE HALF-WAY THERE
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30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE
Public Assembly Bill
IMF
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IS THERE HOPE ?
1. When nearing bankruptcy...• A country’s best chance of survival is for
foreign investors to bring money in.• Will they come in if its management is
corrupt?2. Do you want to hold corrupt leaders to account? 3. There are 198 non-violent methods – http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/198_methods-1.pdf
94For simplification: Use mental models!
1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM
Study tindakmalaysia.com:• History• Religion• Psychology• Social• Trends• Finance & economics• Politics• Strategies of non-violent self-defense
MODEL MENTAL – THE PYRAMID
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(Shrinking)
(expanding)
MENTAL MODEL 1: FRAMEWORK OF SUPPRESSION
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UMNO Rebels
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UMNO WAR MACHINE ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR) IMMIGRATION DEPT INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB) JAKIM/MUIS JUDICIARY MACC MILITARY INTELLIGENCE/UNIT TINDAKAN KHAS
(UTK) POLICE/SPECIAL BRANCH RELA ROS
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LIFE-BLOOD OF THE SYSTEM
SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW LOYALTY IS TO MONEY SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN WHEN CASH-
FLOW STOPS
99
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HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ?Leverage 100x
4 million foreigners
Are banks safe?
Are jobs safe?
http://www.imi.gov.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=524%3Ajumlah-statistik-pekerja-asing-sah-dan-pati-yang-telah-didaftarkan-menerusi-program-6p-sehingga-18-ogos-2011&catid=1%3Aberita-terkini&lang=bm
INTEGRATED VIEW
101
POLITICS
SOCIAL
ECONOMICS
XSTARVE THE BEAST
??
102
SYSTEM RESTS ON CONFIDENCE !
CONFIDENCE&
TRUST
103
WHAT WE NEED !
The US: A depression does a lot of good. It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators. It forces capital into more productive, more profitable uses. It kills off zombie industries. It retires worn-out industries and reduces costs so that new industries can arise. It’s the ‘destruction’ that Schumpeter’s ‘creative destruction’ needs.
Solution for US Debt: http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/4259-NIANswers-FAQ?p=11708#post11708
Same for Malaysia. We cannot ignore the laws of economics for too long.
104
2013 - Economic cycle: 50 – 60 years !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg
HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion,
• Pensions: Withdraw if possible,
• Stocks and mutual funds: Sell all,
• Insurance: Give it up,
• Taxes: Minimize exposure through incorporation,
• Commercial property: Sell,105
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HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Stock up on essentials & dried-food,
• Food-growing land – move to the countryside!
• Housing: Sell. Keep only 1 to stay,
• Businesses: Minimize loans,
• Life-style: Cut down on expenditure,
• Financial: Reduce debt,
• Barter trade
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PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE
• Don’t accept whatever is said today.• Do you own due diligence.• Monitor future events carefully and
compare with what is said today to see if it makes sense.
• Use the knowledge wisely to protect yourselves, your family & your friends.
• Help one another.• Our best protection is National Unity.
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FURTHER READING
Banking & debt, simply-explained. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&feature=player_embedded
Teh Chi Chang’s analysis: The Budget & it’s Shadow.
High Alert!http://thedailybell.com/Public/Files/High%20Alert%20-%203rd%20Edition(1).pdf
198 Ways To Bring Down A Dictatorship.
**** PACABA 0 Thread & Tindakmalaysia.com ****
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING 109
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