Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice...
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Transcript of Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice...
Theories of Voting
Several “Models”
• Socialization / Party Identification
• Rational Choice
• Economic voting
Several models
• Not mutually exclusive
• Some explain some thing / voters better than others
Political Socialization
• Vote choice in candidate races (pre) determined by Party Identification
• Where does PID come from?– early childhood socialization– social groups– stable, even strengthens over time
Political Socialization
Time --->
Childhood
Education
Occupation
Forces that structure PID
Campaign
eventsEthnicity vote choice
Political Socialization ‘08
Dem
(39%)
89% 10% 1%
Repub.
(32%)
9% 90% 1%
Ind
(29%)
52% 44% 1%
Obama McCain Other
Political Socialization ‘04
Dem
(37%)
89% 11% 0%
Repub.
(37%)
6% 93% 0%
Ind
(26%)
49% 48% 1%
Kerry Bush Nader
Political Socialization ‘00
Dem
(39%)
86% 11% 2%
Repub.
(35%)
11% 91% 1%
Ind
(27%)
45% 47% 7%
Gore Bush Nader
Political Socialization
• Balance of partisans in electorate changes very slowly, since individual’s PID very stable
• For partisans: – PID -> issues positions as much as issues
-> PID
Political Socialization
• Partisans most attentive, most interested
• Campaign events, information, ads, etc. don’t move their votes
• They know who to vote for prior to knowing candidates
Political Socialization
• Problems with theory– In US, 1/3 of voters are independent
• Many of these behave as partisans
– Mobilization• With everyone, much of the election depends
on out moblilzing the other side– 2008: fewer GOP voters came out
Political Socialization
• Problems with theory– Not much room for persuastion, converting
voters from one side to other
– No deliberation
Rational Choice
• Voters have preferences for issues / parties
• Voters evaluate choices in terms of candidate/party closest to voter’s preference
Rational Choice
• Voters select option closest in “issue space”
Candidate 1 Candidate 2
Left Right
Voter chooses candidate 2
Rational Choice
• Parties in a “market”– Adopt positions to appeal to the median
voter– If party strays to far from median (center),
they get hammered at the polls
Rational Choice
• Parties in a “market”– What is distribution of voter preferences?
• Normal (bell-shaped)?
• Bi-modal?
Rational choice
If most voters in center
Dem GOP
Left Right
Rational Choice
Left Right
Dem Gop
If few voters in center
Rational Choice
• For “pure” choice model to work– Voters start each election “fresh”
• Parties also?
– Re-evaluate issue positions– This assumes
• voters know candidate positions, voters know their own positions, voters think election causes policy to change
Rational Choice
• Rational ignorance– In reality, voters have history with parties
• they know, roughly, where each party is in issue space
– Not worth effort to become fully informed– Party labels act as short cuts
Rational Choice
• Problems with theory:– assumes far too much of voter
– ignores fact that surveys show voters ill-informed about issues & candidate positions
Rational choice
• Problems with theory– If so many voters in center, why are parties
polarized• Could be that parties “respond” to major donors, not
mass electorate– is this rational?
• Could be that nominations are controlled by ideological extremists
• Could be that parties are only polarized in congress– Districting
Rational Choice
• Does it work to explain how people decide on ballot measures?
Economic voting
• A “soft” form of issue voting / rational choice
• Some voters punish incumbents when times are bad– reward when times are good
Economic Voting
• Prospective– Voters plan ahead, pick candidate best for
them
Retrospective
Voters look backward
Economic Voting
• Self-interested– Vote based on their personal financial
situation
• Retrospective– Vote based on perceptions of the macro-
economy
Economic voting
• Parties may also purse economic policies that appeal to certain types of voters– Dems give priority to jobs, at expense of
inflation– GOP give priority to fighting inflation, at
expense of jobs
Economic voting
• Assumes that Dem voters less hostille to inflation, more worried about jobs
• This is a Philips Curve logic– Assumes a tradeoff between
unemployment and inflation
Economic Voting
• What links between class, party, and voting?– What difference in parties economic
policies• Tax cuts for who?
• See Bartels, Unequal Democracy