Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilation and Advanced Computing
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Transcript of Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilation and Advanced Computing
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Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilationand Advanced Computing
Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilationand Advanced Computing
Regional and Global Data Assimilation
Stephen S. Weygandt
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Data Assimilation at ESRL Data Assimilation at ESRL
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Longstanding expertise in the development and application of innovative regional and global data assimilation techniques
Rapid Update Cycle & Rapid Refresh
Local Analysis and Prediction System
Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis System
Global ensemble Kalman Filter assimilation
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Rapid Update CycleRapid Update Cycle
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Each hour, blend observations and background to get the freshest forecast
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
11 12 13Time (UTC)
AnalysisFields
3DVAR
Obs
3DVAR
Obs
Back-groundFields
Data types usedRawinsondes
Wind Profilers (405, 915 MHz)RASS virtual temperatures
VAD winds (WSR-88D radars)Aircraft (ACARS, TAMDAR)
Surface (METAR), Buoy, MesonetPrecipitable water (GPS, GOES, SSM/I)
GOES cloud-top pressure/tempGOES cloud-drift windsRadar reflectivity, lightningShip reports/dropsondes
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Rapid RefreshRapid Refresh
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Expand high frequency updating concept to full North American domain
Rapid Refresh Use Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and WRF-ARW model
Hourly updating including use of novel observations (satellite clouds & moisture, lighting, air quality data)
RUC
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High Resolution Rapid RefreshHigh Resolution Rapid Refresh
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
A convection resolving nest with radar assimilation to initialize thunderstorms
Rapid Refresh
HRRR
Use Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and WRF-ARW model
Detailed forecasts from 3-km HRRR for NextGen, Warn on Forecast, and other applications
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Local Analysis and Prediction SystemLocal Analysis and Prediction System
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Highly portable analysis / forecast system with unique assimilation features
Detailed cloud analysis fuses multiple observation types
“Hot start” to initialize active precipitation areas
AWIPS data assimilation application for NWS offices
Applications for military, fire weather, hydrology
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Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis SystemSpace-Time Mesoscale Analysis System
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Sequential variational multi-grid analysisfor surface and 3D applications
Utilizes LAPS data processing
Iterative solution obtains progressively more detail
Real-time surface application using mesonet data every 15 minutes for frontal detection
Applications for hurricane & severe weather analysis STMAS analysis of hurricane Katrina
950 mb wind speed and barbs
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Global Ensemble Kalman FilterGlobal Ensemble Kalman Filter
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Placeholder – havematerial from Jeff Whitaker
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Data Assimilation at ESRL Data Assimilation at ESRL
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Success in assimilation of remotely sensed observations (radar, satellite, lightning) and development of advanced techniques
Cloud and hydrometeor analysis
Initializing convective storms
Use of surface observations
Flow-dependent error covariances
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Cloud and Hydrometeor AnalysisCloud and Hydrometeor Analysis
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
observations
data fusion
adjustment to
background
Incremental adjustment based on information from multiple observation types
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Initializing Convective StormsInitializing Convective Storms
ESRL Physical Sciences Review
Hi-Res Rapid Refresh 6-h forecasts
NSSL radarverification
No radarassimilation
RUC radarassimilation
06 UTC 16 Aug. 2007
Digital Filter-based reflectivity assimilationgreatly improves thunderstorm prediction
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Use of surface ObservationsUse of surface Observations
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Placeholder – havematerial from AMB/FAB
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Flow-Dependent Error CovariancesFlow-Dependent Error Covariances
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Placeholder – havematerial from Jeff Whitaker
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Data Assimilation at ESRL Data Assimilation at ESRL
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Continued development in collaboration with NCEP, JCSDA, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, others on:
Advanced techniques (EnKF, hybrid approaches)Specific observing systems, phenomena (radar, satellite, surface – thunderstorms, clouds, hurricanes)
Foci: overall accuracy, specific applications (NextGen)
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Data Assimilation at ESRL Data Assimilation at ESRL
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
DA critical for successful prediction…
Continued development in collaboration with NCEP, JCSDA, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, others on:
Advanced techniques (EnKF, hybrid approaches)Specific observing systems, phenomena (radar, satellite, surface – thunderstorms, clouds, hurricanes)
Foci: overall accuracy, specific applications (NextGen)
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Data Assimilation at ESRL Data Assimilation at ESRL
ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009
Continued development in collaboration with NCEP, JCSDA, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, others on:
Advanced techniques (EnKF, hybrid approaches)Specific observing systems, phenomena (radar, satellite, surface – thunderstorms, clouds, hurricanes)
Foci: overall accuracy, specific applications (NextGen)
DA critical for successful prediction…… from global to local scales