THE SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTIST CHURCH FACES THE FUTURE: A FORECASTING...

THE SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTIST CHURCH

FACES THE FUTURE:

A FORECASTING DOCUMENT

Prepared for the

Strategic Planning Commission

General Conference of Seventh-day Adventists

October 21, 2002

Prepared by the

Institute of Church Ministry

Seventh-day Adventist Theological Seminary

Andrews University

CONTENTS

The World Context

A Changing World

Population Growth

Family Life Issues

Urbanization

Age Structure

Increasing Poverty

The Challenge of AIDS and Other Scourges

Migration and Immigration

Ecology and Environmental Issues

World Religions

Technology, Communications, Media

Biotechnology

The Rise of Post-Modernism

Cultural Shifts

Impact on the Church: A Summary

Trends Within the Church

The Seventh-day Adventist Church: 1980-2000

The Adventist Church of the Future: 2001-2020

1John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene, Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the1990's (New York: William Morrow, 1990), 12.

2Tom Sine, Mustard Seed Versus McWorld: Reinventing Life and Faith for the Future(MI, Grand Rapids: Baker Books, 1999), 88.

3Ibid.

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THE SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTIST CHURCH FACES THE FUTURE

The Seventh-day Adventist Church is a world church with a presence in more than onehundred nations. It is also a diverse church–embracing a great variety of races, cultures, andeducational and socio-economic levels. To be able to keep this church unified and to enable it tofulfill its mission in the twenty-first century calls for a clear understanding of these factors.

But the church does not exist in isolation. It operates within a cultural context of both theglobal arena and its various regional settings. Therefore, to maximize its influence the churchneeds to understand trends in the larger non-Adventist world in which it operates as well asdirections are that occurring within the faith community itself. This paper will look first at thelarger contextual world and then at trends within the church itself.

The World Context

A Changing World

The church today functions in a rapidly changing world. In the last 20 years, variousshifts have occurred in all areas of life. Industrial society has been gradually transformed toinformation society; forced technology has been replaced by High Tech/High Touch technology. Primarily as a result of new technology, globalization has impacted many areas of life. Nationaleconomy has been increasingly overridden by world economy. New trends have fostered globallifestyles and yet strengthened cultural nationalism.1 Along with the booming global economy,“world consumption has expanded at an unprecedented pace over the 20th century, with privateand public consumption . . . reaching $24 trillion in 1998, twice the level of 1975 and six timesthat of 1950.”2

The shift in trends from short-term towards long-term, centralized towards decentralized,institutional help towards self-help, and either/or tendency towards multiple options can benoted. In the political world representative democracy has shifted towards participatorydemocracy, and hierarchy towards networking, and from the north to the south.3 Amidst all the

4Heidi Toffler and Alvin Toffler, Creating a New Civilization: The Politics of the ThirdWave (Atlanta: Turner Publications, 1995), 91.

5Naisbitt and Aburdene, 309.

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shifts, there is an increasing and “irresistible demand” for restructuring “the entire ‘global lawmachine’--from the United Nations at one end to the local city or town council at the other [end].. . All these structures will have to be fundamentally altered, not because they are inherently evilor even because they are controlled by this or that class or group, but because they areincreasingly unworkable–no longer fitted to the needs of a radically changed world.”4

The last decade was also marked by renaissance in the arts, increased participation ofwomen in leadership, and the triumph of individuals in general. Whereas in the past, “power hasbeen associated with institutions,” today, there is a new possibility for individuals.

The individual can influence reality by identifying the directions in which societyis headed. Knowledge is power. Even if you do not endorse the direction of atrend . . . you are empowered by your knowledge about it. You may choose tochallenge the trends, but first you must know where they are headed. Byidentifying the forces pushing the future, rather than those that have contained thepast, you possess the power to engage with your reality.”5

With that in mind this document will review the projected trends in several areas:population, family life, urbanization, age structure, poverty, disease, immigration, environment, religion, technology, communications, biotechnology, and culture.

Population Growth

Perhaps the biggest challenge to the accomplishment of the Adventist mission is theexploding growth of the population. Figures for 2001 estimate world population at about 6.2billion. Asia leads all continents by far with nearly three and three-quarters billion. Next comesAfrica with 818 million, Europe with 727 million, Latin America with 525 billion, and NorthAmerica with 316 billion people.

6Paul M. Kennedy, Preparing for the Twenty-First Century (New York: Vintage Books,1993, 1994), 23.

7“2001 World Population Data Sheet,”<http://www.prb.org/Template.cfm?Section=PRB&template=/ContentManagement/ContentDisplay.cfm&ContentID=6163>, 2002.

8Kennedy, 45.

9Sine, 109.

10Ibid.

11Ibid., 88.

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Projections for the year 2025 range from 7.6 billion to 9.4 billion with a median of 8.5billion people.6 Most of this growth (approximately 95%) will take place in developingcountries.7 Note the projections in the chart below.

The most populous countries Population 2001 (millions) Population 2025 (millions)

China 1,273 1,431

India 1,033 1,363

United States 285 346

This uneven population growth will greatly affect the economic structures of the world. Industrial democracies are expected to shrivel to less than one-tenth of the earth’s population by2025 from one fifth in 1950.8 It will be increasingly difficult for the wealthier nations of theworld to offer aid to the bourgeoning “poor” nations. The church will be faced with the sameproblems.

“While global population is indeed beginning to level off, that isn’t the entire story.Population growth is still soaring among the world’s poorest inhabitants. Today we share theplanet with six billion neighbors. By 2050 the number could reach between 9.5 and 9.8 billion.”9

For example, the population of Africa is slated to double already by 2020 although the AIDSepidemic could change that forecast.10

On one hand, there is increased world consumption which has expanded “at an

unprecedented pace over the 20th century, with private and public consumption . . . reaching $24trillion in 1998, twice the level of 1975 and six times that of 1950.”11 On the other hand, the two-thirds world is increasingly challenged in various areas. One concrete example:

12Ibid., 109-10.

13Howard A. Snyder, EarthCurrents: The Struggle for the World's Soul (TN: Nashville:Abingdon Press, 1995), 33.

14Ibid., 33, 35.

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“It is projected that the global economy will have to come up with two billionnew jobs by 2020 to meet the burgeoning population of young people who will beentering the workforce in these poorer countries. However, job creation isn’tenough. We must make an effort to educate not only men but also young womenso they will be qualified to work in tomorrow’s world. This is a major opportunityfor those involved in mission work.”12

Given the long-time involvement of the Adventist church in the field of education, thispresents both a challenge and an opportunity for this church also.

Will the population bomb explode by the year 2030, bringing mass starvation andpolitical unrest? “The issue is largely political and economic. Enough food is produced globallyif properly distributed. The real issue is the ability of nations and agencies to work together andof each country to care for all its citizens. . . The best way to cut population growth is to reducepoverty.”13

Faced with this expanding population, especially in the 10-40 window, the church ischallenged to step up its efforts. While in recent decades the percentage of Adventists to worldpopulation has grown, this can be misleading when it is noted that the actual gap in numbersbetween the two is widening daily.

Family Life Issues

The Adventist church has traditionally emphasized the foundational role of the family forthe church and for society. In recent years factors such as divorce, co-habitation, the sexualrevolution, feminism, women in the market place, acceptability of abortion, etc. have threatenedfamily structure at large and, by extension, the Adventist family.

“The cornerstone of society has always been the family, or the tribe as extended family.This is changing, and changing globally. Nontraditional family groupings are increasinglycommon. In many places society is shifting from the family to the individual as the basic socialunit.”14 The question is what will replace family life as the glue of social cohesion andgenerational continuity?

With the social fabric in such alarming disintegration, the church will need to giveadditional emphasis to building strong Christian home. The future of its mission depends on

15Taken from www.nationalgeographic.com.

16Kennedy, 36-37.

17Ibid., 311.

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stable families who can provide role models to the world and who can offer assistance in dealingwith family concerns.

Urbanization

Nearly 45% of the world’s population now live in urban areas. The world today has 41cities with five million or more people, and 23 more are expected to join the ranks by 2015. Allbut 11 will be in the developing world. Urbanization is occurring fastest in developingcountries.15

The Adventist church was begun in rural settings, and its appeal has tended to be directedto rural areas and smaller cities. It has not been very successful generally in metropolitan areas,especially in inner cities. Many of these large metropolises have become secular–for example,New York, London, Tokyo, and Shanghai. Through the years Adventists have drawn most oftheir converts from other Christian backgrounds. The church faces the challenge of devisingmethods to reach those who either do not believe in God or who have no time for Him in theirlives. At any rate the future growth of the church lies in city evangelism.

Age Structure

The church must also consider a continual change in age demographics. The populationin the developed world is aging while the average age in the developing world is decreasing.

Kennedy illustrates this point by saying that “whereas in the poorest African countriesonly 2 or 3 percent of the population are over sixty-five, in the rich and healthy nations theproportion is far higher--Norway has 16.4 percent, for example, and Sweden 18.3 percent. Theaverage for richer countries as a whole is steadily rising, partly because their total fertility ratesare declining and partly because of improved health-care techniques for the elderly: By 2010around 15.3 percent of their populations will be over sixty-five, and that figure will come closeto 22 percent by 2040.”16

Kennedy also reported that in the United States of America there will be 65.5 millionpeople older than 65 in 2030–that is, the elderly population will out number the children. “The numbers of people over seventy-five and even over eighty-five--an age group for which thehealth-care cost per person is disproportionately high--will grow the fastest of all.”17

18Kennedy, 29.

19Gordon Aeschliman, Global Trends: Ten Changes Affecting Christians Everywhere (IL:Downers Grove: InterVarsity Press, 1990), 37.

20Ibid., 38-39.

21Ibid., 38.

22Ibid., 43.

23Sine, 55.

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This projection has economic implications for the church–the reduced income of theretired to support the enlarging services needed for children in developing countries. It alsoindicates areas of ministry that will be needed in the future.

Increasing Poverty

As stated above, poverty and population growth go hand in hand. “Apart from the specialhorror of the AIDS epidemic, the chief problem remains: How can poor agrarian societies dealwith excessively-rapid population growth?”18

The most vulnerable part of population seem to be children and women. “Today, morethan 150 million children less than five years old suffer from malnutrition. Attention focused ontheir specific needs will greatly diminish the world’s poverty level by the end of this decade.”19

More than 150 million children have no access to primary schooling. More than 960million adults, two-thirds of whom are women, are illiterate. More than one-third of the world’sadults have no access to the printed knowledge, new skills and technologies that could improvetheir lives and help them shape and adapt to social and cultural change.20 An estimated one-halfmillion women die every year in childbirth, and an additional five hundred per day die due tocompilations from illegal abortions.21

In order to remain faithful to God’s given mission, the church cannot overlook poverty.“Poverty demands of the church the most costly lifestyle choices; and the earth begs the churchto embrace the mandate for stewardship of God’s good creation.”22

Although one would hope that growing globalization would lead to more equaldistribution of resources, and that the increased awareness of needs will empower the lessdeveloped economies, the opposite seems to be true. “Economic meltdown is having adevastating impact on the lives and families of many of our poorest neighbors.”23 For example, “companies in the developed world are investing in new technologies which couldgreatly harm poorer societies, by providing substitutes for millions of jobs in agriculture and

24Kennedy, 64.

25Ibid., 58-59.

26Sine, 56, 59.

27Ibid., 108.

28“2001 World Population Data Sheet.”

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industry.”24 One of the serious consequences of globalization in the area of production,investment, and services is that it affects the career expectations of individuals and the structureof employment in general.25

Sine states that “today, it’s clear that both globalization and technological change arecreating new risks. The increased interconnectedness of the global economy means the economicor financial disturbances in Asia or Russia can be transmitted much faster and more powerfullyto the rest of the world. . . One of the essential conditions of economic globalization is that allbusinesses have unlimited access to the global labor pool to produce goods as efficiently aspossible.”26

“According to the New York Times, 358 billionaires now ‘control assets greater than thecombined incomes of countries with 45 percent of the world’s people.’ The World Bankpredicts that the gap between richer and poorer nations will continue to widen in the next tenyears, and there is little real hope of moving toward convergence any time in the near future.”27

The Challenge of AIDS and Other Scourges

With more than 23 million adults living with HIV/AIDS, sub-Saharan Africa is ravagedby this epidemic. An astounding 36 percent of Botswana's 15- to 49-year-olds live with thedisease. In Lesotho, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe, approximately 25 percent of adults in theseprime ages have HIV. Namibia, South Africa, and Zambia each have prevalence rates of 20percent among adults ages 15 to 49. In another nine sub-Saharan African countries, more than10 percent of adults ages 15 to 49 are infected. South Africa has the highest number of adultsliving with the virus, at about 4.1 million. Nearly 3 million Ethiopian adults live with HIV. Outside of sub-Saharan Africa, the largest numbers of people infected with HIV or living withAIDS are in India at 3.5 million. Globally, 15.7 million adults with AIDS are women, and 1.3million are children below the age of 15.28

Other serious plagues are also spreading rapidly. The Ebola virus is dispersingthroughout Africa. Malaria infects up to 500 million people. Measles, smallpox, and polio are

29Jonathan Gallagher, “The Unstable Future,” Adventist Review 10/January 2002: 11.

30Snyder, EarthCurrents, 32.

31Gallagher, 11.

32Kennedy, 44.

33“2001 World Population Data Sheet.”

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making a comeback. Weakened immune systems make whole populations vulnerable, anddiseases are developing resistance to standard treatments.29

“Gene therapy for many diseases and birth defects will become increasingly commonover the next twenty years. . . A cure for AIDS will be found, though not in time to preventmassive deaths, especially in several nations in Central Africa. . . The dominant emphasisworldwide will be on preventive medicine. Many cancers will be found to be environmentallyrelated, so the link between health and ecology will become much stronger.”30

Since health education and medical ministry has been the “right arm” of the Adventistmovement from its earliest days, the church will be under increasing pressure to minister tosuffering people and to seek preventative measures. One important step forward is theestablishment of the General Conference Office of HIV/AIDS.31

Migration and Immigration

Increasing numbers will be fleeing their homelands to seek a better life in countries thatthey perceive to offer more favorable opportunities. “Given the political and socialtensions that the relatively limited transnational migration has recently provoked, there is reasonto be concerned should a massive surge in population occur from one country to another. Inview of the imbalances in demographic trends between “have” and “have-not” societies, it seemsunlikely that there will not be great waves of migration in the twenty-first century.”32 Forexample, rapid population growth in the Middle East and North Africa exacerbates thechallenges that this region faces as it enters the third millennium.33

This suggests that the church will be faced with huge numbers of refugees thatoverwhelm the resources of the countries they enter. Its relief and development work, such asADRA, will confront awesome challenges to meet these human needs. The situation will alsoopen new opportunities for mission since rootless refugees and immigrants are particularly opento Gospel approaches.

34Taken from: www.nationalgeographic.com

35Gallagher, 11.

36Ibid., 11.

37Kennedy, 111.

38Ibid., 111.

39Snyder, EarthCurrents, 32.

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Ecology and Environmental Issues

The following few paragraphs outline some of the main ecological challenges. Obviously, expanding populations and limited natural resources pose a global crisis. Just oneexample–six of the world’s 18 water-scarce nations are in Africa, and six more African countriesare projected to join that group by 2025.34

Pollution of the planet is increasingly affecting sea animals and birds among other things. People suffer from toxic dumps and impure water. “No one knows what we are doing to ourlife-support system. We may not ever know before it is too late.”35

Global warming affects world in more than one way. First, “natural disasters have . . .increased–there were 94 percent more natural disasters in 1980 than in 1970. . . . It’s not justabout cost, but the impact such disasters have on crops, water supplies, shipping hazards, etc.”36

Secondly, “the possible effect of global warming upon agriculture in the developing world is afurther cause of worry. Higher temperatures will exacerbate water use, and may interact withatmospheric pollution, overgrazing, and forest depletion; it is also likely to reduce thebiodiversity of plant species.”37

The world is already used to the flood of refugees from civil war. However, it is believedthat there may soon be an even larger flood of environmental refugees as societies break down orexperience civil war in the face of natural catastrophes. Already, numerous scholars are pointingto the significance of “environmental changes as causes of acute conflict.”38

On one hand, by the year 2030, the energy crunch of the late 1900s will be largelyforgotten because of conservation, miniaturization, renewable energy sources, and environmentalsensitivity. On the other hand, the world may face a global eco-crisis within the next twenty tothirty years.39

40Aeschliman, 31-32, 43.

41David B. Barrett and Todd M. Johnson, “Annual Statistical Table on Global Mission:2001,” International Bulletin of Missionary Research January 2001: 24.

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The church as advocate for God’s creation will need to take a much more intentionalstand toward environmental issues both as the moral voice of society and out of concern for allof God’s creatures.

World Religions

Adventist evangelism has been most successful among other Christian fellowships. While Christianity still claims the most adherents of any world religion, competition isincreasing. Note the following chart:

World Population byReligion.(2000)Christians 1,999,564Muslims 1,188,243Nonreligious 768,159Hindus 811,336Buddhists 359,982Atheists 150,090New-religionists 102,356Ethno-religionists 228,367Sikhs 23,258Jews 14,434Others 409,260

Islam presents one of the greatest obstacles to the Adventist mission, particularly thefundamentalist brand where one cannot legally convert to Christianity. “Islam will present thetwenty-first century’s greatest challenge to the Christian church. Islam cannot be ignored; it willnot simply go away. Yet, head-to-head confrontation is not the solution. In the years ahead, weChristians will need to seriously equip ourselves to positively respond to the challenge that Islamraises. . . Islam requires the Christian church to engage in difficult spiritual battles.”40

The figures also reveal the increasing difficulty presented by secularism. AmongChristendom itself new forms will keep appearing. It has been suggested that there are now sixecclesiastico-cultural global megablocs: Orthodox, Catholic, Anglican, Protestant, “MarginalChristians,” and Independents (Postdenominationalists, Neo-apostolics). The churches of thelast group “are among the fastest growing in the world. By A.D. 2025 the independents, whonumbered less than half the size of Protestants in 1970, will have nearly 115 million moremembers than Protestants.”41

42Sine, 111.

43Naisbitt and Aburdene, 275-77.

44Sine, 96.

45Leonard I. Sweet, Carpe Manana: Is Your Church Ready To Seize Tommorow? (MI:Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 2001), 33.

46Ibid., 37-38.

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Sine comments that “My research and travels in continental Europe suggest that in themain the church there is in even more serious decline than the church in English-speakingnations. In all these countries, we are witnessing the rapid emergence of a ‘postdenominationalchurch’.”42

Naisbitt and Aburdene have commented on the changing religious scene: “Spirituality,Yes. Organized Religion, No.” “In periods of massive social change, the depth of religiousexperience exceeds organized religion’s capacity to invoke it.” “In turbulent times, in times ofgreat change, people head for the two extremes: fundamentalism and personal, spiritualexperience.” “As one New Ager put it, ‘The way religion is presented traditionally has spokento our inner selves less and less. People want a living, feeling experience of spirituality. Theylearn to get in touch with the soul.”43

All of these facts imply that the Adventist church needs to develop evangelisticapproaches far different from the traditional methods that appealed to Bible-believing Christians. “Peter Brierley of the Christian Research Association reports that 28 percent of the world’speople identify themselves as some brand of Christian: Protestant, Catholic, or Orthodox.Because population growth is outstripping our best efforts, this proportion will decline to 27percent in 2010 and continue to decline after that.”44

Technology, Communications, Media

Perhaps the greatest change the future will bring is in methods of communicatinginformation. This has already begun with the Internet and the world-wide web (WWW). “WWW has gone from something nobody took seriously ten years ago to the driving force of thedawning world. Think what the next 20, 40, 75 years will bring?”45 It was anticipated a fewyears ago that by 2002, there will be more web pages than people on the planet. “The Web is thearmature and metaphor of the future.”46

On a recent radio talk show the discussion centered around the expanding cost of gettingelected to a major office in the United States and whether this could continue or would collapseof its own weight. The expert guest offered the opinion that the problem would be resolvedbecause soon all political advertising would shift to the Internet, and the Internet is free.

47Snyder, EarthCurrents, 29, 38.

48Sweet, 37.

49Sine, 81.

50Sweet, 12-13.

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What impact is the computer era with a new reality of cyber-existence going to have onlife of both individuals and the church? This is a crucial question as shown by a review of theimpact of Internet on everyday life, on ways doing of business, on raising children, of doingpolitics.

1. Well before 2030 the computer/electronics revolution will have integrated today’stechnologies and devices into a range of new products and will have moved to new frontiers. Inthe next thirty years, computers will impact global society and daily living more than theautomobile or even the atomic bomb ever did.47

2. In 10-20 years the world as a global village will be connected as never before. Internetwill be the driving force on the market. “All companies that exist will be Internet companies. . .Everything that is anything, everybody that is anybody, will be driven by the onlineinfrastructure.”48 It also means the power and control of those already strong media corporationsis increasing. “These media giants . . . have pretty well taken over the whole global mind scapeand ‘developed’ it into a theme park.”49

3. The best way to assess the future is to think about today’s children. Sweet reviewsastounding facts about the current world in saying that “for the first time in the history, childrenin all places on the planet”:

– can do the harm that only governments and generals could do in the past,– do not need authority figures to access information. Children have new and differentways of acquiring and accessing, deciphering and digesting information.– are the authority figures, and adults have to come to them to get help. Children haveknowledge their parents do not.50

4. Cyber-space to a large degree affects emotional existence. “One of the major waves ofthe future is that a number of people are turning to the net and cyber-space to find community.”

51Sine, 73.

52Ibid., 76.

53Thomas L. Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree (New York: Farrar, Straus andGiroux, 1999), cover.

54Sweet, 35.

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People are able to connect with others, and yet they stay alone. Authentic relationships are beingreplaced by the cyber-relationships which draw people together and keep them apart at the sametime. Sweet estimates that “the twenty-first century may well be the century of technologicallyinduced disaffection, characterized by an increased sense of loneliness, alienation,powerlessness, and disembodiment.”51

5. Not only is the globalization of communications dramatically changing the ways inwhich people relate to one another and/or conduct business, but it is also decisively changinghow they conduct politics. “There are a number of people who are advocating using the Internetto create a direct form of representative government.”52

“Globalization is not just a phenomenon and not just a passing trend. It is theinternational system that replaced the Cold War system. Globalization is theintegration of capital, technology, and information across national borders, in away that is creating a single global market and, to some degree, a globalvillage.”53

As the new global consciousness is emerging, people’s world views are being shaped andaltered in different parts of the world. For that reason, “defining the meaning of globalizationshould be at the top of the church’s agenda.”54

Biotechnology

As a branch of technology, biotechnology is a relatively new development. Usingtechnology to manipulate living systems has both positive and negative implications. On thepositive side are studies of the genetic basis for many diseases such as cancer, Alzheimer, andParkinson. Through medical research like that conducted at Loma Linda University, the churchmay have the opportunity to be in the forefront of new therapies or preventive medicine and thusenhance its “right arm” of the message.

On the other hand, practices such as human cloning or the creation of biological weaponsraise serious moral questions. The church will need to develop clear positions on the ethical usesof biotechnology and be prepared to act as conscience to the societies in which it operates.

55Naisbitt and Aburdene, 242.

56Ibid., 267.

57Howard A. Snyder, EarthCurrents: The Struggle for the World's Soul (TN: Nashville:Abingdon Press, 1995), 36.

58David J. Bosch, Transforming Mission: Paradigm Shifts in Theology of Mission(Markynoll, NY: Orbis Books, 1991), 264.

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“Biotechnology is becoming a powerful presence in our lives, yet most of us know verylittle about this massive scientific phenomenon and even less about its social and ethicalimplications. Most of us are somewhat put off by technology, and the confusing ethicalcomponent of biotechnology reinforces the temptation to avoid the subject entirely. That wouldbe a mistake. The issues of biotechnology will not go away. And it is too important to delegateto the experts.”55 “Philosophers and theologians, chronically underemployed for centuries, arepursued by headhunters as though they were computer scientists.”56

The Rise of Post-Modernism

The Seventh-day Adventist Church originated in the modern world. Since the so-calledenlightenment, modernism dominated the intellectual climate. The mysteries of the universe hadreal answers, and these answers could be discovered through the use of reason and evidence. Modernism was the basis for the scientific revolution. Adventism imbibed that climate. Itsmessage relied on proving its truth through scriptural evidence and logical reasoning. At its corehistorical Adventism has been an intellectual exercise.

In recent years, however, post-modernism has been making its way into the intellectualworld. In this world there are no right answers–every thing is relative. There has been a loss offaith in evidence and reasoning. Each individual makes his/her own truth. Personal experienceis what matters.

Post-modernism has brought some major shifts in people’s worldview. The majordirections in the intellectual world are: (a) beyond rationality; (b) beyond objectivity; (c) beyondabsolutism; (d) beyond parochialism (one way of life). These shifts are influencing how peoplethink in general, but these shifts influence theological thinking as well. By 2030, modern waysof thinking based on the medieval hierarchical model and the enlightenment machine model willbe replaced by the model of organism or biology and ecology. “The organic model, rooted inecology, is much closer to the essence and relationships of life.”57

Bosch points out, for example, that reason as the only faculty by means of which humanscan arrive at knowledge and insight is no longer tenable.58 Also, it has been discovered that it isnot possible to observe reality without altering what one sees. It is now known, states Bosch,that there are no “brute facts” but only interpreted facts. Objectivity has proved to be a delusion

59Ibid., 355.

60Sweet, 17.

61Ibid., 23.

62Ibid., 27.

63Ibid.

64Ibid., 44.

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and, in fact, a false ideal. Objectivism has totally falsified any conception of truth.59 In today’sworld there is awareness (sometimes painful) that human knowledge is limited and selectiveaccording to cultural and social biases.

Sweet in his book Carpe Manana: Is Your Church Ready to Seize Tomorrow? describesthis cultural shift as the largest immigration that is happening at present. “Cultural immigrantsfrom the modern world are moving into the primitive new postmodern world. Long before theyear 2025, immigrants from the world that is presently coming to an end will constitute only afraction of net population growth, as the swelling number of natives take charge and control ofthe dawning world bursting into bloom.”60

He complains about the church (in general) which is not being responsive to this shift. “We have moved into a new neighborhood, and virtually no one in the church seems to havenoticed.” He senses indifference from the church towards genuine involvement with thesurrounding community. “There are now companies who have more desire to change the worldfor good than the church does.”61

He continues: “This new world is being created by multinationals, consumerism, and newmedia. Why not by the church? A new world is being built from scratch without the church’sschooling or support because the church refuses to regear the gospel in anything other than themother tongue of immigrants.”62

As a result of lack of involvement in the process of this cultural shift, “organized religionhas become utterly incapable of addressing the biggest moral and intellectual questions of theday.”63 It preaches, teaches, and practices “policies that are increasingly at odds with reality andtherefore counterproductive.”64

Cultural Shifts

Changing technology, population growth, immigration, the rise of developing countries,and especially postmodernism have all produced shifts in the culture of societies which thechurch needs to understand. In an emerging World Wide Web Society one can see a massive

65Ibid., 33.

66Ibid., 63-64.

67Ibid., 66.

68Ibid., 65.

69Ibid., 81.

70Ibid., 75-76.

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shift in cultural formation from rational to experiential, from representative to participatory, fromword-based to image-based, and from neither individual nor communal to a hybrid of both calledconnective.65 The following paragraphs describe more specifically the shifts that are on thehorizon.

The new coming generation seems to process information differently. The tendency isfrom linear thinking (cause-and-effect) to non-linear, loop thinking which values “speed,networking, systems, thinking, chaos theory, spirituality and non-linearity.66 As a result, ideasare prized “less for their content or ‘truthfulness’ than for their energy, vitality, joy, and theirability to tickle the soul.67

If ‘systematic theology’--where the Christian story is broken down and divided upinto rational categories or is presented in linear fashion with beginnings, middlesand ends--does not become systemic theology or parabolic theology--where theChristian story is an organic holistic body of thought or a sumptuous banquet ofnarratives--the future of “professional” theology will be no different thanGopher.68

Another shift in processing information occurs from word to image. Although thelanguage of the Bible is filled with metaphors and symbols (“Jesus picked up images like amagnet does paperclips”69) the language of the modern-times theology is filled with abstractionand absolutes.

Only recently are theologians realizing that abstracted principles ‘do not capturethe sensory or linguistic richness of actual religious experience’ and that ‘withtheology’s explicitness comes a loss of the sensual, the implicit, the ‘layersunderneath the surface.’ In other words, it represents the loss of mystery, whichseems to be a necessary ingredient of authentic religious experience.70

The power of words can be restored by attaching them to images and the strength ofintellect may be renewed by passionate experience. “The most valuable gems in the world are

71Ibid., 84.

72Ibid., 87, 91.

73Ibid., 91-93.

74Ibid., 100.

75Ibid.

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the spiritual values of faith, hope, and love. But they need images to convey their power.”71 Faith that remains mere intellectual exercise does not attract anymore. Young people long forfaith in action.

In the coming world, speed is more important than size. The value of fast versus slowreplaces the value of big versus small. While “the Web puts the globe into the hands of everyhuman being, . . . paradigm shifts are taking place every decade.”72 In relationship to this shift,Sweet admits that:

Only two things I can say for certain about the future. First, the unexpectedhappens. Second, the expected does not happen. There are two indispensablesurvival skills in such a volatile world: learning relationships and low viscosity. . .. Learning now is different from the past in a few ways. First, learning is nothigh-tech. Second, learning now involves de-learning or what the apostle Paulcalled ‘forgetting’(Phil. 3:13). . . . Low viscosity means things can move quickly. High viscosity means sludge and stagnation. A low viscosity church is achanging church and a high voltage church.”73

The era in which the most important human asset has been an intellect is being replacedby an era in which people learn by exploring their emotions. While before things needed to“make sense” intellectually, now days they need to “make sense” emotionally. Sweet observes:“Suddenly we find ourselves in a multimedial, multisensory world where . . . [one] learn[s] through a rich sensorium of experiences: hearing, seeing, touching, smelling, and tasting, as wellas thinking.”74

Biblical religion is a participant culture featuring a unity of sensory expressions. Every Hebrew was a ‘performer’ and ‘participant’ who learned cultural fluency infive senses. Worship was spread across the sensory spectrum. All sensesbeckoned to the worship of God. God was not only heard. God was also felt,smelled, seen, and tasted.75

76Ibid., 102.

77Ibid., 110.

78Ibid., 111.

79Ibid.

80Ibid., 125.

81Ibid., 145.

-18-

Communication in the days ahead will be more a matter of touching people emotionally.“The human language of emotion . . . will become culture’s most prized possession. Stories thatevoke emotion will capture the hearts of the people.”76

Instead of asking, “Who am I?” young people are asking questions about the purpose oftheir lives, and they are “answering these questions in surprising ways:

- Build a better neighborhood- Build better relationships- Build better families- Build a better world- Build a better environment- Build a better you.”77

“The standards of wealth and symbols of success are less and less a corner office, silverjet, a Platinum card, or a golden parachute. The biggest ingredients of ‘wealth’ are relationships,values, service, justice, character, etc.”78

The “modern” people’s thinking sprang out of a cause-and-effect mind-set; the post-modern chaos mind-set does not always search for reasons.79 Also, sharp edges of reality arebecoming fuzzy. The world is no more an either/or world but an and/also world. “‘Fuzzy’ ispositive. Fuzz does not make us choose between the claims that the sky is blue or that it is notblue. Fuzz lets us say that the sky is both blue and not blue to some degree.”80 In the world,where opposites go hand in hand, bad choices and good choices are redefined and decisions aremade according to different game rules.

The last shift to be mentioned is that from outer space to inner space. Young people are“godalcoholics. Unfortunately, Christianity in general and the church in particular are largelydisconnected from the spiritual hungers of [the younger generation] . . . and are increasinglywary of engaging postmodern culture in biblically faithful but incarnational ways.”81 Thecoming generation differentiates coming to Christ from coming to church. Along that line goes

82Howard A. Snyder, Global Good News: Mission in a New Context, ed. Howard A.Snyder (TN: Nashville: Abingdon Press, 2001).

83Snyder, Global Good News: Mission in a New Context, 14.

84Snyder, Global Good News: Mission in a New Context, 64.

-19-

also the shift from denominational to transdenominational approach. Snyder points out that“Christ-followers are experiencing a new ecumenicity of spirit.”82

Impact on the Church: A Summary

What might all this mean for the church in 2025? Snyder proposes:

1. The information society/technological revolution means instant voice contactanywhere in the world.

2. Global poverty: 50 percent of the entire world population now lives in absolutepoverty.

3. Human-produced ecological disasters in the late twentieth and early twenty-firstcenturies (Aral Sea, Amazon rain forests, North African desertification encroaching deep into thesouth) call into question the whole issue of earth stewardship. New transnational businesses areformed to deal with disasters.

4. Energy alternatives for daily life also create innovations affecting mission strategies indifficult places. For example, solar-powered one-eye burners for nomadic cooking in deserts andother remote areas and solar-powered “credit card” radios with pretuned frequencies.

5. Redrawn national boundaries further encourage emphasis on peoples rather thannation-states.

6. Rapid global transit (two hours from New York to Tokyo).

7. Pan-confessional approach to worship/koinonia resulting in both Protestant andCatholic orders for more enterpreneurial and transnational approaches to missions.83

In summary, Snyder proposes that “mission has to be global in its vision, its strategy, andits content.” However, “in order to be global, mission has to be contextual! It is more thantranslation.”84

In conclusion, there are several “musts” Malik points out for the church of the future. Thechurch leaders need to study the facts about the world, feel a profound and troubled concern for

85quoted by Snyder, Global Good News: Mission in a New Context, 25.

-20-

the state of the world, and keep in close touch with the world situation. Daily prayers invokingGod’s will on earth are necessary as the church bears witness to Jesus Christ in the midst ofchange. It is also important for the church of the future to work for the unity of the church and toremain faithful.85

-21-

2

4

6

8

10

12

Milli

ons

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

Global SDA MembershipGrowth (1981-2000)

Graph #1

Trends Within the Church

All of the societal trends detailed above have implications for the Adventist church as hasbeen noted. However, it is also helpful to examine some trends within the church itself. Theseparticularly deal with the growth of the church–both the extent of that growth over the nexttwenty years and the locations of that growth. To accomplish this, first the growth of the churchover the last twenty years of the twentieth century will be observed. Then, based on thesedirections, trends for the first twenty years of the twenty-first century will be projected.

To make these figures easier to grasp, a series of graphs will be inserted at the properplace in the narrative.

The Seventh-day Adventist Church: 1980-2000

In 1981, the church had approximately three-and-a half million members worldwide. Bythe turn of the century this had increased to nearly twelve million (see graph #1)–an increase ofmore than 200 percent in twenty years.

However, the yearly growth rate was somewhat uneven as can be seen in graph #2. Thebest years were 1989 and 1999 with better than 7.5 percent. In contrast 1997 was the lowestwith only about 4.4 percent. The others ranged in between.

-22-

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

5.4%

6.3% 6.2%

6.9%6.6%

6.8% 6.9% 6.8%

7.6%

6.9%

6.1%

5.6%

6.2%

5.3% 5.1%5.5%

4.4%4.7%

7.6%

6.8%

Annual Growth Rate %Global SDA (1981-2000)

Graph #2

Graphs #3 through #8 break down these data by continents. In order to define just howvarious divisions and countries were assigned to continents, the following scheme was employedand will be consistent throughout this report.

Africa: AID plus EAD plus Mozambique and AngolaAsia: SSD, NSD, Southern Union Conference (ESD), East Russian Union Conference, Pakistan,

and Papua New Guinea Australia: SPD without Papua New GuineaEurope: TED without Pakistan, EUD without Mozambique and Angola, ESD without Southern

Union Conference and East Russian Union ConferenceNorth America: NADLatin America: IAD plus SAD

It is important to note that these graphs cannot be directly compared with each otherbecause the vertical scales differ. For example, while North America appears to have had somehigh years, the generally sluggish growth means that the longest bar is still only a little over 3percent.

-23-

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

7.6%

9.3%

10.8%10.5% 10.4%

9.7%9.4%

10.1%

11.4%

10.4%

8.0%

4.8%

7.8%7.3% 7.1%

7.4%

5.0%4.4%

8.9%

7.6%

Annual Growth Rate %SDA in Africa (1981-2000)

Graph #3

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

6.2%

6.9%

5.6%

6.6%

7.3%7.5%

6.8%

6.4%

7.2%

6.1%

5.1%

6.2%6.4%

5.9% 6.1%

5.4%

5.1%

5.8%

8.5%

9.8%

Annual Growth Rate %SDA in Asia (1981-2000)

Graph #4

On this basis Africa has had the highest growth rates during this period (over 11 percentin 1989), but it experienced somewhat of a decline toward the latter years. This probablybecause as the actual numbers increase, it becomes more difficult to make percentage gains. Incontrast Asia had its best year in 2000–perhaps representing breakthroughs in India and China.

-24-

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

2.1% 2.0% 1.9%

3.1% 3.3% 3.2%

4.0% 3.8%4.2% 4.1%

3.2%2.9%

3.3%

-3.8%

0.6%

2.0%

3.5%

4.3%

3.6%

2.2%

Annual Growth Rate %SDA in Australia (1981-2000)

Graph #5

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

-3.6%

0.5% 0.5% 0.8%0.1%

0.7% 0.9%1.4%

2.1% 2.2%

5.7%

12.4%

9.8%

4.8%3.8%

2.8% 2.9%

1.6%2.1%

1.3%

Annual Growth Rate %SDA in Europe (1981-2000)

Graph #6

Europe presents an interesting pattern because while it generally suffered low growthrates, there was a spike in the middle, especially 1992 and 1993. Most of this growth occurred ineastern Europe, including Russia, because of accelerated evangelistic efforts with large baptismsfollowing the collapse of Communism.

-25-

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

6.7% 6.7%6.2%

7.6%

6.6%

7.2%

8.1%

7.2%7.5%

6.7%6.4% 6.5%

5.7%

4.6%

3.9%

5.0%

4.2%

5.6%

7.9%

6.3%

Annual Growth Rate %SDA in Latin America (1981-2000)

Graph #7

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

3.1% 3.1%

2.8%

2.4%

2.0%

2.2%

1.5%1.7%

2.1%2.3%

2.2% 2.2%

1.8% 1.8%

2.0%

2.3%

2.0%

1.8%

2.6%

2.2%

Annual Growth Rate %SDA in North America (1981-2000)

Graph #8

-26-

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

North America

Europe

Australia

Latin America

Asia

Africa

2.2%

2.4%

2.7%

6.3%

6.9%

8.4%

SDA by ContinentsAverage Growth Rate (%) 1981-2000

Graph #9

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Thousands

Southern Africa Union Conference

TRANS-EUROPEAN DIVISION

SOUTHERN ASIA-PACIFIC DIVISIONSOUTHERN ASIA DIVISION

SOUTH PACIFIC DIVISION

SOUTH AMERICAN DIVISION

NORTHERN ASIA-PACIFIC DIVISION

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

INTER-AMERICAN DIVISION

EURO-ASIA DIVISIONEURO-AFRICA DIVISION

EASTERN AFRICA DIVISION

AFRICA-INDIAN OCEAN DIVISION

3062

-186

53191

46114

12430

89253

24520

19007

101413

5995

21103

116397

82635

SDA by DivisionsAverage Annual Net Growth 1996-2000

Graph #10

To be able to make a fair comparison, graph #9 reveals the average yearly growth ratesfor the entire twenty years by continent. As earlier noted, Africa led the way with over 8 percentper year. Asia and Latin America followed with approximately 6 percent. The other three werefar down with North America in last place, having slightly over 2 percent.

Next, this paper focuses more narrowly and examines what has been happening in the lastfive years (in contrast to twenty) of the century. Graph #10 lays out the average annual growth

-27-

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%



SOUTHERN ASIA-PACIFIC DIVISION

SOUTHERN ASIA DIVISION






EURO-ASIA DIVISION

EURO-AFRICA DIVISION



4.2%

-0.2%

5.2%

16.8%

4.1%

5.9%

6.5%

2.2%

5.8%

4.8%

4.4%

7.0%

6.7%

SDA by DivisionsAverage Annual Growth Rate % 1996-2000

Graph #11

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




6.9%

4.1%

5.7%

15.6%

5.3%

9.2%

5.8%

3.8%

8.3%

13.5%

5.4%

10.9%

10.2%

8.4%

SDA by DivisionsAverage Accession Rate (%) 1996-2000

Graph #12

during this period by actual numbers. The largest population increases came from the Africandivisions, Inter-America, and South America. The Trans-European Division experiencedpractically no growth during the last five years of the century. In contrast, when the same dataare expressed as percentages, Southern Asia was far ahead of the rest of the world, havingincreased by about 17% during the period. This is because the recent spurt of baptisms in Indiacame from a low membership base (graph #11).

-28-

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




4.3%

3.3%

0.7%

0.8%

1.8%

3.2%

0.8%

1.3%

2.6%

5.9%

0.6%

3.4%

3.2%

SDA by DivisionsAverage Drop/Miss Rate (%) 1996-2000

Graph #13

Growth, of course, is composed of several elements. One of these is from people whojoin the church through baptism or profession of faith. Graph #12 allows comparison by divisionof average yearly accession rates for the period of 1996 to 2000. The new openness to theGospel in India has given that division the largest average accession rate for this period. Butalso the high rate of the Euro-Asia Division reflects the large post-communist baptisms from alow membership base.

However, growth is also controlled by the losses to membership. Graph #13 portrays theaverage yearly rates of dropping members for apostasy or as missing. Note the relatively highloss rate for Euro-Asia, probably because many accessions were obtained by itinerant evangelistswho did not or could not stay to follow up on the new members and the lack of a structuresufficient to integrate them into the life of the church.

-29-

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




6.9%

31.5%

7.2%

1.0%

17.8%

26.3%

2.0%

24.8%

21.3%

41.5%

12.1%

16.5%

12.9%

SDA by DivisionsAverage Drop/Baptism Ratio % 1996-2000

Graph #14

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




46.3%

50.3%

11.5%

5.6%

15.8%

38.1%

13.1%

21.3%

36.2%

37.8%

5.6%

36.4%

31.0%

SDA by DivisionsAverage Loss/Gain Ratio (%) 1996-2000

Graph #15

Combining the two previous graphs, #14 reveals the average yearly ratio ofdisfellowshiped members to accessions by baptisms. The lower the better. The high bar forEuro-Asia reflects the large income-outgo turnover, while for Trans-Europe both the accessionsand the apostasies were low but more equal.

Graph #15 presents the average yearly ratio of membership losses to membership gains. This differs from graph #14 in that losses might include deaths and transfers out as well as thosedropped. Gains reflect transfers in as well as baptisms.

-30-

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4%










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




0.4%

1.3%

0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

0.7%

0.2%

1.3%

0.6%

0.4%

0.7%

SDA by DivisionsAverage "Bio" Loss Rate (%) 1996-2000

Graph #16

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




116

71

197

286

190

279

300

189

303

87

127

256

277

SDA by DivisionsAverage Size of Churches 1996-2000

Graph #17

Graph #16 focuses in on the average yearly percentage of losses by death. None ofthese percentages are very high, but the graph does allow for comparisons. Basically, this data ismost likely a function of age–an older membership has a higher death rate. The lower rates tendto be in developing areas of the world where the church is usually younger.

Graph #17 presents the average size of local churches in each division for 1996 to 2000. Congregations tended to be small in Europe and larger in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

-31-

0 200 400 600 800 1000










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




344

139

409

579

355

705

579

274

733

146

417

959

879

SDA by DivisionsAverage Members per Minister 1996-2000

Graph #18

0 5 10 15 20 25 30










EURO-ASIA DIVISION




14

24

17

6

19

11

17

26

12

7

18

9

10

SDA by DivisionsAverage Members per Baptism 1996-2000

Graph #19

Graph #18 shows the average number of members for each minister during the period. Pastors in Africa carried the biggest work load, but those in Latin America also facedchallenging assignments. In areas with high averages lay members must assume a greaterresponsibly for church administration and outreach.

Graph #19 gives by division the average number of members it took to win one convert. Here North America led, but it is a dubious honor. Trans-Europe was also high indicating that inthese areas larger proportions of laity were not involved in soul-winning.

-32-

0

10

20

30

40

Mill

ions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

Global SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #20

The Adventist Church of the Future: 2001-2020

Growth rates of the past can be useful in predicting the future. If, for example, a growthrate is plotted for twenty years, then it is possible to project that line forward and gain a pictureof what the future will look like, assuming that conditions affecting growth remain stable. In thefollowing graphs lines have been extended to 2020 using the pattern of the previous twentyyears, but in all graphs the projections have also been based on the past five years and the pastten years.

Graph #20 looks at these projections using these three methods. If the data are based on1981 to 2000, the projection is the highest (nearly 40 million). If they are based on the last fiveor ten years, the final figure is about 36 million. This indicates a rapid growth from 1981 to1990, and a somewhat slowing pace from 1990 to 2000. While some variation is to be expected,even the worst-case scenario views the church as more than doubling in the next18 years. Thisgrowth will put a heavy tax on church resources such as worship buildings, ministerialpersonnel, and the financial structure, especially since the major growth will occur in divisionsthat are less-privileged economically.

This can be seen in graphs #21 to #33 which portray the same picture as graph #20, onlyby separate divisions. Note that the vertical scale for AID, EAD, IAD, SAD, and SUD is inmillions; the remainder of the divisions are scaled in thousands. The very steep projection linessuggest that this explosive growth in the future will come from Africa, Southern Asia, and LatinAmerica where many of the nations are not wealthy.

-33-

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 M

illio

ns

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

AID SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #21

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mill

ions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

EAD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #22

-34-

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

EUD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #23

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

ESD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #24

-35-

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mill

ions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

IAD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #25

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

NAD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #26

-36-

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

NSD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #27

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mill

ions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

SAD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #28

-37-

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

SPD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #29

0

2

4

6

8

Mill

ions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

SUD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #30

Of special note is SUD. If the forecast were made using the 1981 to 2000 figures, thisdivision would be projected to have about two million members in 2020–less than NorthAmerica. But the heavy growth in SUD in recent times has made the figure rise to over fourmillion. Also of interest is ESD. Although the increase in total membership does not comparewith that in Africa and Latin America, the percentage gain is very steep. Note that on mostgraphs the actual line of the last 20 years is somewhat straight, but here the huge jump between

-38-

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

SSD SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #31

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

TED SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #32

1990 and 1995 has resulted in a relatively high forecast. Of course, given the specialcircumstances, that rate of growth may not continue.

-39-

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Thou

sand

s

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

SAUC SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #33

0

5

10

15

20

Mill

ions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

Africa SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #34

Graphs #34 to #39 go over the same ground except they present it as continents ratherthan divisions (actually Inter-America was placed with South America as Latin America eventhough part of Inter-America lies on the North American continent).

-40-

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14 M

illio

ns

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

Latin America SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #35

0

2

4

6

8

10

Mill

ions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

Asia SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #36

-41-

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

Europe SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #37

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

North America SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #38

-42-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Thou

sand

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AAGR5 (96-00) AAGR10 (91-00) AAGR20 (81-00)

Australia SDA MembershipProjected Growth

Graph #39

Australia (1.99%)Europe (4.74%)

North America (14.62%)Asia (17.93%)

Latin America (33.65%)

Africa (27.07%)



Latin America (33.77%)Africa (30.92%)



Latin America (33.39%)Africa (32.93%)


North America (7.99%)

Asia (20.01%)


Africa (34.29%)

Global SDA Membershipby Continents

1985 1990

1995 2000

Graph #40

These graphs clearly project Africa as being the biggest boom with perhaps 20 millionmembers by 2020. Latin America follows with approximately 13 million. When all the Asiandivisions are combined there may be another 9 million. Far less will be in the developedcountries–Europe will have around 600,000, North America will have around 1 ½ million, andAustralia, 240,000. It is easy to visualize the strain that this uneven pattern of growth will placeon the church’s resources.

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Asia (20.97%)


Africa (35.54%)

2005



Asia (21.88%)


Africa (36.68%)

2010




Asia (22.75%)

Africa (37.72%)

2015




Asia (23.57%)

Africa (38.67%)

2020

Projected SDA Membership by Continents

Graph #41

Finally, graphs #40 and #41 illustrate the changing picture of growth through pie charts. Starting in 1985 and moving at five year intervals to 2002, the percentages of Adventistmembers on each continent are shown. This includes what has been in the past and what isprojected for the future.

While nearly 15 percent of the world membership lived in North America in 1985, this isprojected to be only about 5 percent in 2002. From 2000 to 2020, the percentages for Africa andLatin America do not change much–actually declining a little. The big winner is Asia–goingfrom 20 percent to 28.5 percent.

Comparing these internal data to the projections of world growth documented in part oneof this paper, it can be seen that the growth of the population and the growth of the church tendto parallel each other in their geographical and economic sources. Both the external context andthe internal patterns provide immense challenges for the church in the next two decades.

THE SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTIST CHURCH FACES THE FUTURE: A FORECASTING...

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