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VIII INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE RIVERS OF SIBERIA AND THE FAR EASTIRKUTSK | 6 -7 JUNE 2013TAREK KETELSENINTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

THE ROLE OF SEA IN PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT : Lessons from the Mekong River of SE Asia

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1. Introduction to the Mekong2. Overview of Mekong mainstream

hydropower3. Role /scope of SEA in influencing decisions4. SEA Process5. Impacts of mainstream hydropower

Power security Economic development & poverty alleviation Ecosystem integrity Fisheries & food security Social systems & communities

6. Alternatives to mainstream hydropower7. Conclusions

OVERVIEW

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THE MEKONG BIODIVERSITY

One of the most bio-diverse river basins globally 781 known fish species 200 new fish species found 2011-2012 1,000 new terrestrial & aquatic species

1997 -2007 Centre of origin for coconut, sugar cane,

clove, nutmeg, black pepper, onion, cucumber, egg plant

>13,000 traditional rice varieties in Lao PDR

>3,000 traditional egg plant varieties in Lao PDR

Highly productive system >70% of Mekong population are

dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods

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Monsoon climate and snow/glacial melt in the Lancang River leads to a “flood pulse” hydrograph

Flood pulse is highly variable between seasons, but highly consistent in the timing of seasonal transitions

Vast areas of flood plain, river banks and in-channel islands vary between aquatic and terrestrial phases every year

Creating seasonal habitats and efficient recycling of biomass and nutrients

MEKONG HAS HIGH LEVELS OF VARIABILITY

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

PAKSE

VIENTIANE

CHIANG SAEN

KRATIE

TAN CHAU

CHAU DOC

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MEKONG HAS HIGH LEVELS OF VARIABILITY

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MEKONG HAS HIGH LEVELS OF CONNECTIVITY

Mountains – floodplains – delta – marine Transport of average 457km3/yr Production & transport of ~160Mt of

sediment each year >26,000 t/yr of Total P

Floodplains – riverine habitats Migration of fish – at least 800,000 t/yr Floodplain refuge for 1.3 Mt/yr of non-

migratory fish

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MEKONG MAINSTREAM HYDROPOWER

No MAINSTREAM PROJECT

DEVELOPER

1 Pak Beng China: Datang International Power Generation

2 Luang Prabang

Vietnam: PETROVIETNAM Power Corporation

3 Xayaburi Thailand: SEAN & Ch. Karnchang Public

4 Pak Lay China: CEIEC & Sino-Hydro

5 Xanakham China: Datang International Power Generation

6 Pak Chom Thailand/Laos:

7 Lat Sua Thailand: Italian Thai Asia Corp. Holdings

8 Ban Koum Thailand: Charoen Energy & Waters Asia

9 Don Sahong Malaysia: Mega First

10 Thakho France: Compagnie Nationale du Rhone and EDL

11 Stung Treng Vietnam

12 Sambor China: Southern Power Grid

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MEKONG MAINSTREAM HYDROPOWER

VIET NAM

Reservoir lengths: 10 – 180km Reservoir Areas: 13-620km2 55% of the Mekong River (Chiang

Saen to Kratie) converted from river to reservoir

Total installed capacity: 14,697 MW

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WHY MAINSTREAM HYDRO?

Regulation of Mekong flow due to Chinese hydropower on the Lancang River (Upper Mekong Basin)

Rapid entrance of the private sector into hydropower development and their preference for large investment projects

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SEAs OF MEKONG HYDROPOWER

MRC SEA OF MEKONG MAINSTREAM HYDROPOWER

Involved consultations with more than 60 government agencies & 40 NGOs

18 months (2009-2010) 24 specialists Focused on 12 mainstream hydropower

schemes These are sovereign decisions of Cambodia (2

proposals) and Lao PDR (10 proposals) There is a commitment to notify, consult and

seek to reach agreement with neighbors

ADB SEA OF GMS POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Focused consultations on the GMS Regional Power Trade Committee & Govt, consultation

18 months (2012-2013) 13 specialists Focused on the GMS power

development plan Consists of:

The national Power Development Plans

Additional GMS regional transmission line options

Identifies the economic least-cost generation and transmission expansion

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ROLE OF SEA

SEAMRC SEA: what are

the cross-sectoral impacts of large hydropower development on the surrounding ecosystems, communities and economies?

GMS SEA: what are the alternatives to large hydropower which will continue to support growth without the high cost to natural systems and other sectors?

WATERSHED MANAGEMENT Conservation plans Agriculture, fisheries,

aquaculture etc master plans

Rural development plans Protected Area buffer zone

management plans Water allocation plan

POWER & INDUSTRY Power development

plans Transmission line

master plans Special Economic

Zones Distribution systems

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An SEA is effective if it contributes and influences the decision making process

Influence can be: To distill the critical trade-offs –

the “big” issues Providing alternatives to the plan

that better meet sustainability objectives

Consolidate sustainability objectives where they are absent

Provide space for discussion and debate amongst decision makers

Improve transparency of decision making

And sometimes even to fill information gaps by undertaking new research

SEAs INFLUENCE DECISION PROCESSES

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Inception and scopingReport

Baseline Assessment

Report

Opportunities & Risk Report

FinalReport

National Government consultationsRegional Government ConsultationsCivil society Organizations (CSO) ConsultationsDeveloper consultations

May – June 2009 June-Sep 2009 Feb-May 2010 May-July 2010

Scoping phase Baseline phase

Opportunities &

Risk phase

Avoidanceenhancement & Mitigation phase

AME Report

Oct 2010

Staged approach – analysis, consultation & documentation at each stage

STEPS IN SEA PROCESS

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SEA PROCESS

National Scoping & Capacity Building Workshop & Civil Society Meetings•4 National Scoping Workshops•3 Civil Society meeting•Thai Civil Society meeting to follow in November

8 THEMES (~30 - 40 KEY ISSUES)

Government Line Agency Meetings•meetings with 40 agencies in the LMB

2 Field Missions & Opinion from 17 experts•Luang Prabang, Xayabouly, Pak Lay, Sanakhan, Pak Chom

100s of development Issues

past present future

Without mainstream hydropower

Issue 2

Issue 1

With mainstream hydropower

2. BASELINE ASSESSMENT

With mitigation

1. S

CO

PIN

G

3. OPPORTUNITIES & RISKS ASSESSMENT

4. M

ITIG

ATIO

N

SCOPING: What are the key issues for development and conservation ?

BASELINE: What are the trends in these keys issues without the proposed development?

IMPACT: What are the impacts of mainstream hydropower on each of these trends?

AVOIDANCE, ENHANCEMENT, MITIGATION: How will the most important

risks be avoided, or mitigated

benefits be enhanced

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Large projects producing significant quantum of power: 14,697 MW, or 23 - 28% of the national hydropower potential of the 4 LMB countries

Not critical in terms of regional power sector: 6-8% of the projected LMB power demand for 2025, equivalent to the

expected LMB energy demand growth rate experienced in one year between 2015 and 2025

Minor impact on electricity prices at regional(<1.5%) , and national levels Lao PDR gains most from the overall mainstream power benefits,

but has many alternatives for export & domestic supply The mainstream proposals are most critical to power sector

development in Cambodia heavily dependent on expensive imported oil and most limited

range of alternative options

IMPACTS: POWER SECURITY

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IMPACTS: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Export revenues are estimated to be worth ~USD3-4billion/yr for all 12 projects

Lao projects: USD 2.6-2.8billion/yr

Cambodian projects: USD 1.2-1.4 billion/yr

During the BOT* concession period (0-25yrs):

26-31% of project benefits would accrue to national governments

Remainder to developers, investors and project expenses

FDI ~USD25billion for all 12 projects – significant economic stimulus to the host countries and the region

~50% of FDI would be spent outside host countries

Fisheries and agriculture: losses are an order of magnitude greater than the realistic benefits to those sectors

Fisheries losses ~USD 476 million/yr Reservoir fishery gains ~USD

14million/yr Agricultural losses ~USD

33.1million/yr Expanded irrigation

~USD15.5million/yr

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IMPACTS: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

LMB mainstream projects would likely contribute to a growing inequality and a short to medium term worsening of poverty in LMB countries

Insufficient national and regional capacity to ensure that benefits accruing at the national level are transferred to the local level

short to medium term: international financing organisations & bilateral partners need to play a critical role in developing the required institutional and regulatory capacity

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The mainstream projects would cut the longitudinal connectivity of the Mekong ecosystem, compartmentalizing it into smaller and far less productive units resulting in an irreversible compromise to natural system integrity: ~55% of the river Chiang Saen – Kratie will become reservoir ~5% of the river would experience permanent water levels great than 1/1,000yr event ~40% of the Mekong River’s wetlands would be affected ~ 17% of which would be permanently inundated by the LMB mainstream projects Loss or reduction in important Mekong transition seasons Not a significant regional impact on the Mekong flood regime from individual projects due to

small retention times Sediment load drop by ~50% for 2030 without LMB mainstream Sediment load will drop by 75% with LMB mainstream with major consequences for delta

stability, floodplain fertilization and coastal fishery Peaking operation: 3-6m spikes in water levels in towns 40-50km downstream

of a project Little time for notification (1-2hours) Potentially even larger during emergency or unplanned releases

IMPACTS:ECOSYSTEMS

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permanent and irreplaceable global loss of biodiversity, including the extinction of a number of globally endangered species, which cannot be compensated

The loss of habitats would encourage the proliferation of generalist species

river fragmentation would isolate aquatic populations into pockets leading to a loss of species

Adverse impacts to Mekong aquatic systems & geomorphology would be unavoidable

Terrestrial ecosystems: generally more locally based impacts can be mitigated or compensated by measures for rehabilitation and re-creation

(e.g. conservation offset programmes)

IMPACTS:ECOSYSTEMS

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Mainstream projects: Would fundamentally

undermine the abundance, productivity and diversity of the Mekong fish resources, affecting the millions of rural people who rely on it for nutrition and livelihood

total loss in fish resources ~660,000 t/yr from all hydropower

~340,000 tonnes/year from mainstream projects

~110% the total annual livestock production in Cambodia & Lao PDR

IMPACTS: FOOD SECURITY

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Rural and urban communities living within 15 km of the Mekong River would experience greater food insecurity due to: the reduction in capture fisheries net loss of subsistence agriculture and

river bank gardens. Substantial losses in the fresh

and marine capture fisheries and in Delta aquaculture would have basin-wide impacts on the fisheries sector, associated ancillary and processing

industries, fisheries associated livelihoods, health

and nutrition

IMPACTS: FOOD SECURITY

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significant effects on riparian communities by disrupting their ways of life, cultures and sense of community

2.1 million people, ~10% of people living & working within 5 km of the river, are expected to be most at risk to the direct and indirect impacts of the LMB mainstream dams Direct impacts:106,942 people Indirect impacts: 2 million people

IMPACTS: COMMUNITIES

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NATIONAL TRADE-OFFS

THEME ISSUE LAO PDR CAMBODIA THAILAND VIET NAM

Hydrology and sediment

Changes in patterns of maximum water levels, rates of rise and predictability

Changes in sediment transport and deposition

Changes in nutrient transport

Terrestrial ecosystems and agriculture

Habitat loss and degradation

Changes in Land use

Changes in irrigated agriculture

Changes in River bank gardens

Aquatic

ecosystems

Change in productivity of aquatic habitats

Changes in populations of rare and endangered species

Changes in water quality

Fisheries Changes in long distance migration

Changes in fish species biodiversity

Changes in fish production

Social systems Changes in poverty and natural resource based livelihoods

Changes in health and nutrition

Social effects of resettlement, land acquisition and loss of access

Changes in cultural values and patterns

Economics Contributions to national economy - Export earning

Contributions to national economy - Foreign Direct Investment

Contributions to local economies (district and community level

Energy and Power

Achieving energy security

Meeting national energy demands

Meeting local energy needs

Climate change

Relative emissions of green-house Gas

Direct impacts of climate change on hydropower projects - extreme events & dam security

Combined effect of climate change and mainstream dams on food security

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NATIONAL TRADE-OFFS

All groups recognized: Benefits were focused on

power & economic themes risks would focus on

natural & social systems, particularly fisheries and hydrology & sediment

Potential for increased poverty from mainstream development despite recognition of high returns from power sales

The Lao group placed highest significance on the power benefit, while the Viet Nam and Thai groups gave the least significance to this benefit – even though they would consume most of the power

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ENERGY ALTERNATIVES

5 scenarios1. BAU2. Global renewables3. Local renewables4. Global energy

efficiency5. Local energy efficiency

Renewable Energy scenario (“RE scenario”) increases the renewable energy in the GMS energy generation mix by exploiting additional unplanned RE potential in place of planned conventional capacity.

Energy Efficiency scenario (“EE scenario”) reduces the demand for energy in the GMS by incorporating additional unplanned EE measures in place of planned conventional capacity.

Building the scenarios

Current P

DPs Sce

nario

Renewable Energy

Scenari

o

Energy Efficie

ncy Sc

enario

Demand reduction with energy efficiencyRenewable EnergyConventional energy sources

PLA

NN

ED G

ENER

ATI

ON

OU

TPU

T

Renewable and Efficiency scenarios displace planned conventional energy capacity

Alternative scenarios displace conventional capacity with different quantities of renewable energy and energy efficiency

QUANTIFYING ALTERNATIVES

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PRINCIPLES FOR ALTERNATIVES

GlobalConcerns • Climate Change

• Which conventional energy sources most affect these concerns?• Lignite• Coal• Gas

Displacement Principles

• Remove lignite, coal and gas plants in order of the quantity of emissions they produce

Regional Concerns

• Biodiversity and ecosystem integrity• Livelihoods and food security• Health• Regional transboundary impacts

Related EnergySources

• Which conventional energy sources most affect these concerns?• Hydropower• Nuclear• Lignite and coal

Displacement principles

• Remove mainstream hydropower plants to eliminate their significant disturbance of ecosystems and settlements and contribution to transboundary impacts

• Remove other hydropower plants, relative to their power density, number of people resettled, and their distance to the Mekong mainstream

• Remove nuclear power plants to eliminate the risk associated with radioactive waste and nuclear accidents

• Remove lignite and coal plants in order of the relative quantity of SOx, NOx and particulate emissions produced by fuel type

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MODELLING ALTERNATIVES

OptGen modelling objective: Minimise the Net Present Value

of the cost of: Capital + Fixed O&M +

Variable O&M + Fuel + Deficit + Constraint violation penalties

Subject to: Maintaining the demand-

supply balance at each system node

Power plant and interconnection capacity constraints

Water balance at hydrological system nodes

Fuel constraints Limitations on the

construction of new plant (e.g. earliest commissioning date)

Large potential for solar at 76 GW

Less than 2% of technical potential realised in 2010

RENEWABLES POTENTIAL 2050

Note:1. Only includes currently

proven technologies2. Excludes off-grid potential

EE potential to 2025 Additional EE potential is 17% of planned consumption

Cambodia and Lao PDR assumed to have a 10% saving

Vietnam more than half of energy consumption

EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL 2050

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ENERGY ALTERNATIVES

Technically and economically feasible options for power trade and development exist in the GMS which Meet high

regional power demand rates

Not require mainstream Mekong project

Consultations on the final report are scheduled for June 2013 in Kunming

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1. Globally important river: The Mekong is one of the few remaining international rivers undammed over most of its length;

2. Irreversible change: One dam across the Lower Mekong mainstream commits the river to irrevocable change;

3. International tensions: The proposed developments when under construction and operating have the potential to create tensions within the LMB;

4. Impacts are unavoidable: Many of the risks associated with the proposed mainstream developments cannot be mitigated at this time – they would represent a permanent and irreversible loss of environmental, social and economic assets;

5. Weak institutional capacity: There are many and substantial gaps in institutional and procedural arrangements for ensuring the effective management of construction and operation of the projects;

CONCLUSIONS

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6. Weak regulation: Critical national capacities in terms of personnel and skills are not yet in place to oversee, control, monitor and enforce safeguards and operational rules;

7. Weak safeguards: The framework of regional standards and safeguards relating to trans-boundary and downstream effects and institutional arrangements for their enforcement are not fully developed and are not adequate;

8. Big uncertainties: There are so many remaining uncertainties and serious risks associated with the developments that more studies are needed to better inform responsible decisions making;

9. Knowledge gaps: The state of knowledge about the Mekong is not considered adequate for making an informed decision about mainstream dams at this time;

10. There are technically and economically feasible options which can satisfy regional power demand without the need for Mekong mainstream hydropower.

CONCLUSIONS

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THANK YOU!

For SEA documents please visit: www.icem.com.au www.mrcmekong.org/

ish/SEA

info@icem.com.autarek.ketelsen@icem.co

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