The Presentation from September 12, 2007 Dinner Meeting

8/9/2019 The Presentation from September 12, 2007 Dinner Meeting

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2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved

Evolution Toward Engineering Complex Systems

INCOSE Joint Chapter Meeting

New England and Washington Area

Dr. Joseph K. DeRosa

[email protected]

12 September 2007

Formerly Presented at

Brisbane, Australia

July 2, 2007 Approved for Public Release Case No. 07-0906
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Caerulea3_crop.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Caerulea3_crop.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Caerulea3_crop.jpg


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Examine the

Genetic material

Add Energy

The SituationConstruct

Fitness

Landscape

Engineer

Complex System


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ABillionYearsABillionDoll

ars


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If you have a Billion Years ...

You do this


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Let it Continue to Evolve?


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Mix Things Up a Bit?


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This Would be More Interesting


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Intervene and Induce a Phase Change

kiss


10/50 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved

So What Do We Go Do?

Ten Steps on the Journey


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Step 1:

Change in Mindset


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The Watchmaker:

Everything has its place.

Traditional Systems Eng

Static: As Is To Be Views

Passive: One Design Choice

Uniform: All Parts Are Equal

The Gardener: Plant,

Fertilize, Weed; Repeat.

Enterprise Systems Eng

Dynamic: Constant Change

Competitive: Crops compete

Scale Free: 80-20 Rule

From Control to Intervention


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Complex

An Example Cheyenne Mountain

Difficult


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NSA

NIMA

Air/Space BMC2Air/Space BMC2

Rivet JointRivet Joint

JSTARSJSTARSAWACSAWACS

SBRSBRNational SIGINT SBIRS PLUS

National IMINTNational IMINT

CompassCompassCallCall

GPS PLUS

GPSCommercial IMINT

E-10AE-10A

U-2U-2

SPACEAFAOC

ASOC

CRC BCSTACP

WOC EOC

Navy

C2&ISR

Centers

Coalition

C2&ISRCenters

Marines

C2&ISRCenters

Army

C2&ISRCenters

Services

& CoalitionDCGS

NRO

DGS-3Osan

DGS-5Hickam

DGS-2

Beale

DGS-1

Langley

DGS-4

Ramstein

DeployedSites

FalconerTransformation

Center

ANG

Remotes

Falconer

Remotes

Maritime BMC2Maritime BMC2 Ground BMC2Ground BMC2

Intero

pera

ble

Info

Excha

ngeRq

mts

Colla

borati

veMsn

Dist

ribut

edOPS

Intero

pera

ble

Info

Excha

ngeRq

mts

Colla

borati

veMsn

Dist

ribut

edOPS

Interoperab

le

InfoExchangeRqm

ts

Collab

orativeMsn

DistributedO

PS

Interoperab

le

InfoExchangeRqm

ts

CollaborativeM

sn

DistributedO

PS

TARSTARS

Global HawkGlobal Hawk

Coalition / ArmyNavy / Marines

Sensors

Coalition / ArmyNavy / Marines

Sensors

PredatorPredator

SOFSOF

UCAVUCAV

Sensors /ShootersSensors /Shooters

C2 Constellation

Services

& Coalition

DCGS


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The National Airspace System (NAS):A Complex System

18,292 Public & Private Airports

50,000 Airport Operations per day

700,000,000 Passengers per year

125 Billion Revenue Passenger Miles per year

15,000 Controllers

36,000 Systems

171 TRACONs

20 En Route Centers

600,000+ Active Pilots

280,000 Aircraft

130,000 En Route Operations per day


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Step Two:

Change in Methods


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Shannon

Wiener

Kolmogorov

Heroes of Our Methods


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The New Heroes of New Methods

Prigogine

Gell-MannSimon


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Step 3:Understand your Organizations

Genetics


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Genetic Material The Corporations DNA

Not-for-Profit

Operates in the Public Interest

Apply Hard Sciences

Perform Systems Engineering
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c2/ADN_static.png


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Step 4:Understand your Organizations

Environment


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Environment

Operates three Federally Funded Research & Development Centers

Industry

Other

FFRDCsAcademia

Other Nations


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Step 5:Understand the Global

Objectives


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Execution

StakeholderNeeds

Mission

Learningand

Growth

Officers Goal Strategy Map

Senior leadership and program managers say:

Driveintegration and

interoperability S2

Anticipate needs, avoidsurprises, and tell us the

brutal truth S1

Leverage yourdepth, breadth,

and relationships S3

Help usachievemission

success S4

Definition Application Reputation

Incorporate ESE andTSE systemsthinking into

MITREs

mindset W1

Leverage andenhance TSEfoundational

excellence and build

ESE capability W2

Deepenunderstanding of

customerschanging missionsand environment

W3

Continue to develop within MITRE a well-defined discipline for enterprisesystems engineering, which encompasses and enriches traditional

systems engineering, apply it to our work, and be recognized externallyfor this expertise.

Brand MITREas a leader inESE as well as

TSE V5

Evolve andcommunicateTSE and ESE

knowledge V1

Develop and articulatethe TSE and ESE

value proposition V2

Institutionalize and consistentlyapply disciplined TSE and ESE

processes to advance customersmissions V4

Nurture trusted strategicrelationships to influence

decisions affecting enterpriseoutcomes V3


Continue to develop ... Enterprise Systems Engineering ... Encompassing

Traditional Systems Engineering, ... apply it to our work ...

Stakeholders Local and Global Needs

Evolving and Applying The Discipline

Staff and Organizational Learning


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Step 6:Seek and Exploit

Deep Structures and Patterns


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http://members.virtualtourist.com


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Patterns in Organizations

Hierarchy


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Problem

Hierarchy


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32 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved

Solution

Hierarchy


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What About Distributed Situations?

Situation

X-teams:explore, exploit, export solutions

ambassadors & scouts inside & out

Agent-based models

Traveling Salesperson

Prisoners DilemmaMinority Game


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Patterns in Action

Strategic

OperationalOperational

TacticalTactical

WorkWork

SPE

CIFICATION

INTERPRE

TATION

EVAL

UATI

ON INTENTION

OUTCOME

PERC

EPTION A

CTION

GOAL

Ends-Means Action Pattern

Ends

Means


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Deep Structures in Organization and Action


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Step 7:Harness Complexity Through

Evolutionary ProcessesVariety, Selection and

Environmental Shaping


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Evolution in Technology Development

Un

iform

ity

Variety

Favors Exploit

Favors Explore


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Evolution Through Cross Network X-Teams


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Putting Management and EngineeringTogether

Uniformity

Variety

- Seeking similarities among different things

(Integration)

Seeking differences among similar things

(Differentiation)

Export to new baseline

Fitness Limits

Experiments


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Evolution of Socio-Cultural Systems

From Gharajedaghi, Dichotomy or Dialectic

Limits for Integrative

Tendencies

Limits for Differentiative

Tendencies

Violent ReactionINTE

GRATION

DIFFERENTIATION

Right

Left


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Step 8:

Feedback, FeedforwardFeed-all-around-the-town


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Signals in the Network

s Internal Feedback

Officers Goal Measure Leaders

MITRE Institute courses

Systems Engineering Process Office all things enterprise!

ESE Focus Groups, Tech Exchanges, Challenge Cases

s External Contact

over 50 ESE publications and books

s Joint Efforts MIT: Active co-research

New England Complex Systems Institute

University of Vermont

University of California at San Diego

Johns Hopkins University

Stevens Institute of Technology

...
http://www.incose.org/symp2006/http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/3540328319/ref=dp_image_0/102-5238109-1196946?%5Fencoding=UTF8&n=283155&s=books


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Step 9: Tools


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Some Tools for Performing ESE

s Complex Systems Regimen

A set of strategies for intervention in complex systems

s Enterprise Systems Engineering Processes

Tech Planning looking for cues in technology

Capability-based Engineering Outcome Space Management

Stakeholder Analysis Environmental scan

Strategic Technical Planning Simple Technical Rules Enterprise Architecture socio-techno patterns

Enterprise Analysis & Assessment Fitness, Selection,Learning

s Profiler Tool

Captures context of systems development

Two kinds of tools:

Tools to do work

Tools to make tools


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Profiler Tool


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Step 10: Humility


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Complex Systems

The study of complex systems is the study of the world as itis, not as we want it to be.

Brenda Zimmerman,

Edgeware Insights From Complex Systems

... With a careful research plan, under controlled conditions, using selected agents,complex adaptive systems do pretty much as they damn please.

John Holland,Hidden Order

Tree of Life


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Tree of Life

Science Magazine, 2006


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YouA

reHe

re


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Enjoy the Conference!

The Presentation from September 12, 2007 Dinner Meeting

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