The Passion of the Fan: Using Social Media to Predict the NFL Season

The Passion of the Fan


A deep dive into preseason hype and outlook

for the 2010 NFL season across the Social Web

Jeff Esposito

JeffEsposito.com

Table of Contents

The Passion of the Fan .3

Methodology ..................................................................................4

State of the fan .7

AFC East ..12

Buffalo Bills 14

Miami Dolphins ..16

New England Patriots..18

New York Jets ..20

AFC North ..22

Baltimore Ravens ..24

Cincinnati Bengals .26

Cleveland Browns .28

Pittsburgh Steelers ..30

AFC South 32

Houston Texans .34

Indianapolis Colts ..36

Jacksonville Jaguars .38

Tennessee Titans .....40

AFC West .42

Denver Broncos .44

Kansas City Chiefs .46

Oakland Raiders .48

San Diego Chargers .50

NFC East ..52

Dallas Cowboys ..54

New York Giants.56

Philadelphia Eagles ..58

Washington Redskins .60

NFC North ..62

Chicago Bears ..64

Detroit Lions .66

Green Bay Packers ...68

Minnesota Vikings 70

NFC South ..72

Atlanta Falcons ..74

Carolina Panthers .76

New Orleans Saints .78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers .80

NFC West ......82

Arizona Cardinals .....84

St. Louis Rams .86

San Francisco 49ers .88

Seattle Seahawks ..90

AFC Playoff Teams 93

NFC Playoff Teams ..............94

NFL Champion .95

About this report ..........................................................................97

2


The National Football League is the premier professional sports league in the United States and draws a captive of fans audience across the country who live and die with each play of their team. In the past the passion of fans was judged by attendance, jersey sales and fan presence in opposing stadiums. The general buzz around a team was also generated by local and national media outlets. Social media has changed that as the fans voices can be heard just as loud and clear as a pundit on a pregame show. This report takes a deep dive into the fan-generated buzz for all 32 teams, predicting the divisional and Super Bowl champions based on the fans passion.

May sound crazy, but you never know...

3

3

Methodology

4

Measured social mentions for each team from August 1 through September 1, 2010 using Scout Labs software

Mediums included:

Blogs

Forums

Traditional news sites

Twitter

Metrics used include conversation share, positive and negative conversation shares, SIM and Net promoter scores

Formulas

Conversation Share

Total team mentions / Overall league mentions

Positive Conversation Share

Total positive team mentions / Overall positive league mentions

Negative Conversation Share

Total negative team mentions / Overall negative league mentions

Net Promoter Score (NPS)

(Positive mentions + neutral mentions) negative mentions / Total team mentions

Social Influence Marketing Score (SIM)

NPS * Conversation Share * 1,000

5

5

Picking the winners

6

Unlike many methods for season predictions, I used social buzz to select division, conference and championship game winners. My formula equally weighs five variables to predict the top teams in each division, conference and league. These variables include conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.

To select division winners, I ranked each variable on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point. The team with the most points is my predicted division champion. In the case of a tie, the overall mentions served as a tiebreaker. Wild Card teams were selected as the two teams with the next highest scores in each conference. In the case of a tie, remaining teams were re-scored against each other.

I determined my conference championship picks in a similar fashion with a 1-6 scale and the world champion was determined on a 1-2 scale. In the case of a tie in the championship round the tie-breaker was the team with the overall highest score from all three rounds combined.

State of the Fan

Heading into the 2010 season, the NFL had an aggregate NPS of 95%. The highest rating for an individual team was 99.98% (St. Louis) and the low was 88.9% (NY Jets).

During the month I collected data, there were 527,419 social mentions of the leagues teams. Ninety-four percent were neutral, 4% were positive and just 2% negative.

7

State of the Fan

Top Mentioned Teams

San Diego

Denver

Dallas

NY Jets

Minnesota

Least Mentioned Teams

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

Kansas City

Atlanta

Carolina

Top Positive Mentions

NY Jets

New Orleans

Dallas

NY Giants

Cleveland

Top Negative Mentions

NY Jets

NY Giants

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Baltimore

8

State of the Fan

Top SIM Score

San Diego

Denver

Dallas

Minnesota

NY Jets

Low SIM Score

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

Carolina

Top NPS

St. Louis

Jacksonville

San Diego

Carolina

Denver

Low NPS

NY Jets

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Baltimore

NY Giants

9

Overall conversation share

10

Arizona AtlantaBaltimoreBuffaloCarolinaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandDallasDenverDetroitGreen BayHoustonIndianapolisJacksonvilleKansas CityMiamiMinnesotaNew EnglandNew OrleansNY GiantsNY JetsOaklandPhiladelphia PittsburghSan DiegoSan FranciscoSeattleSt. LouisTampa BayTennesseeWashington1240210349150681917510455148051466615638275583497315124156261109415780741385621699522777160171752518894228901680512912171663859114009118451092185181202620840

Ready to see how your team fared?

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New York Jets

12

AFC East Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: New York Jets*

Team Rankings

New York Jets - 9

Miami Dolphins - 9

Buffalo Bills - 8

New England Patriots 5

For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6

NPS

Bills 96%

Dolphins 96%

Patriots 95%

Jets 89%

SIM Score

Jets 271.055

Bills 245.282

Dolphins 217.763

Patriots 203.564


Jets 48%

Patriots - 25%

Dolphins 16%

Bills 12%


Jets 54%

Bills 16%

Patriots 16%

Dolphins 14%

*= Jets win conference via overall mention tiebreaker.

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13

JetsBillsDolphinsPatriots22890191751601716995

Buffalo Bills

14

Buffalo Bills

As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

15

Miami Dolphins

16

Miami Dolphins

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19


New York Jets

20

New York Jets

21


AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

22

AFC North Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers

Team Rankings

Pittsburgh Steelers 12

Baltimore Ravens 7

Cleveland Browns 7

Cincinnati Bengals - 4


NPS

Steelers 97%

Ravens 92%

Bengals 92%

Browns 91%

SIM Score

Steelers 265.054

Browns 228.373

Ravens 222.296

Bengals 215.261


Browns 30%

Ravens 28%

Bengals 22%

Steelers 19%


Browns 31%

Bengals 28%

Ravens 27%

Steelers 14%

23

ClevelandCincinnatiBaltimorePittsburgh15638146661506817166

Baltimore Ravens

24

Baltimore Ravens

25


Cincinnati Bengals

26

Cincinnati Bengals

27


Cleveland Browns

28

Cleveland Browns

29


Pittsburgh Steelers

30

Pittsburgh Steelers

31


AFC South

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans

32

AFC South Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: Indianapolis Colts

Team Rankings

Indianapolis Colts 12

Tennessee Titans 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 6

Houston Texans 6


NPS

Jaguars 99%

Colts 97%

Texans 95%

Titans 95%

SIM Score

Colts 330.792

Titans 245.719

Texans 227.021

Jaguars 157.688


Colts 31%

Texans 28%

Titans 28%

Jaguars 13%


Titans 36%

Texans 32%

Colts - 26%

Jaguars 6%

33

TennesseeHoustonIndianapolisJacksonville1202611094157807413

Houston Texans

34

Houston Texans

35


Indianapolis Colts

36

Indianapolis Colts

37



38


39


Tennessee Titans

40

Tennessee Titans

41


AFC West

Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers

42

AFC West Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: San Diego Chargers

Team Rankings

San Diego Chargers 12

Denver Broncos 7

Oakland Raiders 7

Kansas City Chiefs - 3


NPS

Chargers 98%

Broncos 97%

Raiders 94%

Chiefs 93%

SIM Score

Chargers 383.065

Broncos 343.502

Raiders 160.243

Chiefs 80.885


Raiders 30%

Broncos 28%

Chargers 24%

Chiefs 18%


Broncos 31%

Raiders - 30%

Chargers 22%

Chiefs 18%

43

DenverOaklandSan DiegoKansas City3497316805385918562

Denver Broncos

44

Denver Broncos

45


Kansas City Chiefs

46

Kansas City Chiefs

47


Oakland Raiders

48

Oakland Raiders

49


San Diego Chargers

50

San Diego Chargers

51


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Redskins

52

NFC East Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: Dallas Cowboys

Team Rankings

Dallas Cowboys 13

Washington Redskins 9

New York Giants - 6

Philadelphia Eagles - 4


NPS

Cowboys 97%

Redskins 96%

Eagles 93%

Giants 93%

SIM Score

Cowboys 331.928

Redskins 249.564

Giants 218.019

Eagles 150.167


Cowboys 33%

Giants 33%

Eagles 21%

Redskins 13%


Giants 35%

Cowboys 23%

Eagles 22%

Redskins 20%

53

NY GiantsDallasPhiladelphia Washington18894275581291220840

Dallas Cowboys

54

Dallas Cowboys

55


New York Giants

56

New York Giants

57


Philadelphia Eagles

58

58

Philadelphia Eagles

59


Washington Redskins

60

Washington Redskins

61


NFC North

Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings

62

NFC North Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: Detroit Lions

Team Rankings

Detroit Lions 10

Minnesota Vikings 9

Green Bay Packers 8

Chicago Bears - 6


NPS

Lions 95%

Vikings 95%

Bears 95%

Packers 94%

SIM Score

Vikings 316.675

Packers 215.975

Lions 211.233

Bears 205.160


Packers 32%

Lions 24%

Bears 22%

Vikings 22%


Vikings 33%

Packers 25%

Bears 23%

Lions 20%

63

MinnesotaGreen BayChicagoDetroit22777156261480515124

Chicago Bears

64

Chicago Bears

65


Detroit Lions

66

Detroit Lions

67


Green Bay Packers

68

Green Bay Packers

69


Minnesota Vikings

70

Minnesota Vikings

71


NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

72

NFC South Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: Carolina Panthers

Team Rankings

Carolina Panthers - 12

New Orleans Saints - 9

Atlanta Falcons - 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4


NPS

Panthers 98%

Buccaneers 97%

Falcons 97%

Saints 95%

SIM Score

Saints 355.946

Panthers 218.008

Falcons 213.696

Buccaneer 176.319


Saints 57%

Panthers 16%

Falcons 14%

Buccaneers 13%


Saints 50%

Falcons 20%

Buccaneers 15%

Panthers 14%

73

New OrleansAtlantaTampa BayCarolina1752510349851810455

Atlanta Falcons

74

Atlanta Falcons

75


Carolina Panthers

76

Carolina Panthers

77


New Orleans Saints

78

New Orleans Saints

79



80


81


NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

82

NFC West Buzz Rankings

Conversation Share

Conference Champion: San Francisco 49ers

Team Rankings

San Francisco 49ers 12

Arizona Cardinals 9

St. Louis Rams 6

Seattle Seahawks - 4


NPS

Rams 100%

49ers 96%

Cardinals 96%

Seahawks 95%

SIM Score

49ers 274.336

Cardinals 242.024

Seahawks 228.949

Rams 222.035


49ers 44%

Seahawks 31%

Cardinals 24%

Rams 1%


Seahawks 36%

San Francisco 32%

Cardinals 31%

Rams 0%

83

SeattleSan FranciscoArizona St. Louis11845140091240210921

Arizona Cardinals

84

Arizona Cardinals

85


St. Louis Rams

86

St. Louis Rams

87


San Francisco 49ers

88

San Francisco 49ers

89


Seattle Seahawks

90

Seattle Seahawks

91


2010 Playoff picks

92

AFC Playoff Teams

East Champ New York Jets*

North Champ Pittsburgh Steelers

South Champ Indianapolis Colts

West Champ San Diego Chargers

Wild Card Miami Dolphins

Wild Card Denver Broncos*

AFC Champ San Diego Chargers

93

*= NY Jets named division champs via overall mentions tiebreaker, Denver Broncos earned a playoff berth via the rescoring tiebreaker

NFC Playoff Teams

East Champ Dallas Cowboys

North Champ Detroit Lions

South Champ Carolina Panthers

West Champ San Francisco 49ers

Wild Card Washington Redskins*

Wild Card Minnesota Vikings*

NFC Champ Dallas Cowboys

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* = Washington and Minnesota earned Wild Card berths through the rescoring tiebreaker

And the winner is

95

San Diego Chargers

Using the social buzz surrounding the NFL, the San Diego Chargers will defeat the Dallas Cowboys in the 2010 Super Bowl.

The final score using the metrics listed on page six has the Chargers finishing the game with a score of six to the Cowboys three.

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About this report

This report was compiled using Scout Labs. The account was provided to me for research purposes.

The NFL and Social Media are two things that I am passionate about. Like many football fans, I am excited for the start of the season and have had discussions and debates in the social Web. I did the research for this report to see if this online passion and buzz had any relation to on-field performance. I figured using numbers was a better predicting tool than saying I like this team or mascot X is tougher than mascot Z.

This report was not done in conjunction with the league or any member teams. All images used in this report were from PicApp under their terms and conditions.

All team names and league marks appearing in this document are trademarks or registered trademarks of the National Football League or individual teams.

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About this report

About Jeff Esposito

Jeff Esposito is a public relations professional with a passion for social and conversational media and writes on both topics on JeffEsposito.com. He earned his PR stripes working in the professional sports world. Jeff is currently a public relations manager at Vistaprint, a leading online provider of professional marketing products and services to micro businesses. He is responsible for the day-to-day management, development and growth of the company's social media properties and campaigns. He is also active in a number of other communications areas for Vistaprint, including marketing communications and PR. The information and findings are from Jeff Esposito and do not reflect the opinions of his employer or Scout Labs.

If you would like more information on this report or would like to contact me, please visit: http://jeffesposito.com/about/

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The Passion of the Fan: Using Social Media to Predict the NFL Season

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