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NFL Prediction Model

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Table of contents

Program Setup ............................................................................................................................. 3End User License Agreement .................................................................................................... 4Getting Started ............................................................................................................................. 6

System Requirements ............................................................................................................ 9Getting help .............................................................................................................................. 9Program Description ............................................................................................................ 14

Websites ........................................................................................................................... 15Administration .................................................................................................................. 16

License Verification .................................................................................................... 17Special Clear .............................................................................................................. 18

Parsing Routines ............................................................................................................. 19Databases ........................................................................................................................ 19The Roster ........................................................................................................................ 22

Injuries .......................................................................................................................... 24The Schedule ................................................................................................................... 25Weighting Factors ........................................................................................................... 26

Examples ..................................................................................................................... 30Predictions ....................................................................................................................... 32

Point Spread ............................................................................................................... 33Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 34Reports ............................................................................................................................. 34

Exit the Program ........................................................................................................................ 39FAQ and Troubleshooting ......................................................................................................... 40Contact Us .................................................................................................................................. 41Purchasing .................................................................................................................................. 42

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Program Setup

Once you receive the program either by download or on CD, its very easy to run thesetup.

Setup by downloading

Follow the instructions on the web page.

note: If you also received a CD, you should not run setup from the CD. The CD is only a backup in the event you need to run the setup in the future.

Setup using a CD

Insert the CD in your CD player and the program will start automatically if you havethe auto-start option turned on. If the program doesn't start automatically, you willhave to use windows explorer and access the files on the CD. You will find asetup.exe file on the CD's root directory, just double click on it and RUN. The setupwill then execute. Just follow the setup instructions.

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End User License Agreement

End-User License Agreement for any of Joe Zambuto's software programs

IMPORTANT READ CAREFULLY: This End-User License Agreement is a legal

agreement between You-the buyer and Joseph Zambuto-the seller. By installing, copyingor otherwise using the software, you agree to be bound by the terms of this agreement.----------------------------------------------------------------------

SOFTWARE PRODUCT LICENSEThe software product is protected by copyright laws and international copyrighttreaties, as will as other intellectual property laws and treaties. The software product islicensed, not sold.

GRANT OF LICENSEDepending upon what you purchased, you may install and use one copy of Joe Zambuto's NFL PredictionModel program, is here on called the software product on a single computer.

· You may also make a back-up copy of the software product.

· You may use this backup copy solely for archival purposes.

DESCRIPTION OF OTHER RIGHTS AND LIMITATIONS· You may not reverse engineer, de-compile, or disassemble the software product.

· You may not rent or lease the software product.

· You may permanently transfer all of your rights under this agreement provided youretain no copies.

· Without prejudice to any other rights, I may terminate this agreement if you fail tocomply with the terms and conditions of this agreement.

COPYRIGHTAll title and copyrights in and to the software product (including

but not limited to any images, photographs, animations, video, audio, music, text and applets, incorporated into the software product), any accompanying printed materials, and any copies of the software product, are owned by the seller.

LIMITED WARRANTY· I warrant that the software will perform substantially in accordance with the accompanying written and/or program help for a period of thirty (30) days from the date of receipt.

· My entire liability and your exclusive remedy shall be, at my option, either return of the price paid, repair or replacement of the software and which is returned to me with a copy of your receipt.

NO OTHER WARRANTIES To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, I disclaim all

other warranties, either express or implied, including, but not limited to implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a

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particular purpose, with regard to the software.

NO LIABILITY FOR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall I be liable for any damages whatsoever (including without limitation, special, incidental, consequential, or indirect damages for personal injury, loss of business profits, business interruption, loss of business information, or any other pecuniary loss) arising of the use of or inability to use this product, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages. In any case, my entire liability under any provision of this agreement shall be limited to the amount actually paid by you for the software.

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Getting Started

Welcome to my NFL Prediction Model Computer Software Program. Thisprogram was designed to help you predict the outcome of next week's NFLgame. It utilizes custom website "parsing" routines that "pulls-in" all dataneeded to make accurate predictions.However, it is NOT a program that gives you my best picks, but rather ahandicapping tool that allows you to teak and tune the model based upon thepast performance, changes in the lineups and your own handicappingexperience. What follows is an exhaustive help program. Review all thepages and good luck! Oh, and no matter how good a predictive model orVegas handicappers is...any thing can happen on any given Sunday!

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There's also a link to the License Agreement.

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System Requirements

The NFL Prediction Model Software Program was created using “Visual Basic 6.0”on an Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-4210U CPU @ 1.70 GHz with 8.00 GB of Ram usingWindows 8.1.

Note: The program does run on Windows Vista, XP and Windows 7.

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Getting help

When you see this menu button, you can then launch the HTML (web-

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browser) HELP program. There is a table-of-contents designed to helpyou navigate and understand the capabilities of the program. To getthe maximum benefit of the program, first go through all the topicsprior to actually trying to use any of the features.

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NOTE:There is also a YouTube Instructional Video to assist in your learningof the program.

<--link to view video

There is a Table of Contents for easy access.

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If you click on the "About the Program" the intro box will appear. Youcan also review the License Agreement.

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There's also a link to the License Agreement.

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Program Description

What follows are Help Pages to explain the features of the program. Irecommend you review all the descriptions and associated videosbefore attempting to use the program.

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Websites

I have provided easy access to several key websites for easy viewing. Just use the pull-down menu "WEBSITE(S)" and click on the desiredwebsite.Here is the ESPN website...

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Administration

Under the pull-down menu "ADMINISTRATION", you can set youdefault printer and the location of any reports. You can select either the Screen or Directly to your default printer.

Printer Setup:

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Set all reports to go to the screen, this is the default location.

Note: Once the report is displayed on the computer screen, you canalso send it to your default printer.

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License Verification

License Verification should only be used when directed by me.

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Once the program is launched for the first time a computer generatedcode is created.

Email me this code and I will email you back the access and securityinformation that will release all the associated program features.

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Special Clear

The special clear feature should only be used when directed by me.This will clear the old license validation and re-generate a new

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computergenerated code. Email me this code and I will email you back the access and security information that will release all the associatedprogram features.

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Parsing Routines

The Parsing routines is the heart of the program. Parsing "pull-in" all the past performance data needed toaccurately predict the outcome of the upcoming games.The image above shows the link to the NFL 2104 Regular Season.

Under NCAA, you can "pull-in" the college past performance data forthis years draft picks. This is good for the beginning of the season.

Note: If you use this option later in the season, any current data theplayer accumulates in the NFL will be overwritten by the draftedplayer's college data.Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easy to use tool to create HTML Help files and Help web sites

Databases

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Once the data is "parsed" from the website, you can view the "raw"data. This example shows the NFL'S DEFENSE TEAMS data....

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You can sort on any column by first selecting the column and then usethe Sort Col buttons...You can also select a specific team's defensive data by clicking on thedesired team. Youcan display all the teams by clicking on the "Display All" commandbutton.

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You can also DELETE "ALL" data in the database(s). Note: The data will be permanently lost and will require "Parsing" topopulate

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The Roster

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The NFL Roster is based upon the "OurLads NFL Scouting Services -Full Charts", showing the depth charts.

Establishing a "Clean Roster" is nothing more than deleting all entries.Updating the Roster launches a parsing routine over to "Ourlads"website and pulls in the charts data.

You can then Display, with Sorting (select a column) and Team selectioncapabilities.

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Injuries

Currently, any injury code with the exception of Probable & Questionable,will result in removing the injured players statistics from the calculations

PROBABLE

Probably play

QUESTIONABLE

50/50 chancewill not play

DOUBTFUL

75% will notplay

LEFT Left previousgame

OUT Out

NFI Out

SUSPEND Out

Each week you should update the injury list. The injuries are evaluated basedupon the follow:

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The Schedule

You can view the NFL Schedule (Grid format) and/or parse from theweb. The prediction model usesthis database to determine home team advantage.

Note: If you click on the "Parse NFL Schedule Grid" pull-down menu,you will be given a chance to change your mind.

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This feauture will erase the current NFL Schedule and then parse theweb to create a new schedule.

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Weighting Factors

The weighting factors provide the predictive nature of the program. It is here that you can put "weight" on specific past performanceratings.Just move the associated slide for values of 0-100.

Prior to conducting a prediction, you need to either create or load apreviously established weighting file.All weighting files have a ".wts" file extension. When you want to loada previous weighting file, use the pull-down menu "Load Weighting File". A Filemgr will load so that youcan navigate to the location of your files.

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Note: During program startup the previously loaded weighting file willbe automatically loaded.

Once the weighting file has been loaded, you can then view the desiredweighted values:

Here you can see that these ratings have a weighting value of 5. Inaddition, the "HOME" slide is alsoset to 5. This means all home teams will be given a +5 pt advantage. The algorithm used is as follows:1. The max or min value among the 32 teams for each rating isdetermined2. Then each teams value becomes a ratio of their value to the max ormin value3. The weighting value provided (ie, below) would then be the multiplier

For example, if the NYG had the maximum "YDS" then their ratingrating divided by the max rating is equal to 1. Then 1 times theweighting value for YDS, the 5 in the example below, results in anoverall value of 5 pts. If a team had a rating of say 75% of the themax rating, then their overall value would be 5 x .75 or 3.75 pts.

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To help set the weights you can use the "Set All Weights" option. Select a value between 0-100 and then hit the button. All the weights will then be slid over to the valueprovided. Remember, you have to save the weightingvalues.

If you need a simple explanation of the ratings, use the Glossarybutton. This comes from the official NFL statistics page.

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Once the weighting values are set, you need to save them! Use thepull-down menu "Save toWeighting File" button.A message will come up reminding you about the .wts file extension.

You can double-click inside the filename box to bring up the FileMgr. You can use the FileMgr to pre-load anexisting weighting file or you can just type the full filename includingthe path inside the box.

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Depress the "Save" button, a confirmation message will appear.

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Examples

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Predictions

From this pull-down menu you actually generate the predictions for theupcoming week.First thing you need to do is set the "Game Week". Notice that Week13 is selected. When the programloads it will remember the last used Game Week.

When you select the "Team Only" Predictions pull-down button, thecomputer will generate the predictions based upon the weighted values assigned to the Team Ratings only (Player Only willonly use Player statistics). All the ratings are added for a team total.

The "Home Team" field is populated with a "1" to indicate the HomeTeam based upon the Game week selection and the Schedule lookup.

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Point Spread

From this pull-down menu you can "parse" the CBS Sports website andpopulate the database with the Vegas Point

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Spread for the game week selected.

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Analysis

From this pull-down menu you can "parse" the ESPN website andpopulate the database with the Final Scoresfor the game week selected.

Once you parse the web for the final scores, you need to populate thedatabase for input to the statistical model.

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Reports

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Once the predictions have been made, you can generate and view theassociated report.Remember, based upon the Administrative report setting, the reportwill be generated and delivered to theselected location.

In this example, the report is sent to the Screen for instant viewing. The teams underlined represent the HOME team. You will be asked how you want the report sorted. "P" for Highest Predicted Points first, or"D" for Highest Delta points first.

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You can search within the report

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You can export the data into several different formats. The mostpopular is PDF.

You can also send the report to your default printer.

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Exit the Program

When you want to exit the program, always use the pull-down option. This will ensure all databases and memory options are saved.

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FAQ and Troubleshooting

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Contact Us

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Purchasing

2014/2015 Pricing List

Introductory Offer

BasicProgram

$49.95

CD BackupDisc

$6.00

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