The oil and tanker market INTERTANKO Tanker Event Tokyo 13 May 2009 [email protected]...
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The oil and tanker market INTERTANKO Tanker Event Tokyo 13 May 2009 [email protected] Manager Research and Projects
Transcript of The oil and tanker market INTERTANKO Tanker Event Tokyo 13 May 2009 [email protected]...
The oil and tanker marketINTERTANKO Tanker Event
Tokyo 13 May [email protected]
Manager Research and Projects
New growth?
Sub-prime mortgagesLehman bankruptcy Sept-08
Financial crises
2003-2008Average GDP growth 4.4%
Average growth oil demand 1.3% Growing imbalances
Level two
Level one
Level threeEconomic crises
No liquidity, increasing unemploymentConfidence crisis
Reduced oil demand
Creative destructionEntrepreneurial innovation
creates new growth*
New driving forces*Schumpeter
Level four
World GDP and oil demand change
Source. IMF/BP / IEA
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Annual % change oil demand Annual % change world GDP
Correlation: 0.72
World oil demand outlookmbd
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 2000 2007 2015 2030
0
22
44
66
88
110N America
Europe
Pacific
E.Euro/Eurasia
Other asia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
L America
Marine bunkers
World
Source: IEA
+21 mbd2007-30
World oil supplymajor net exporters
mbd
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 2000 2007 2015 2030
Middle East
Africa
L America
Brazil
E Eur/Eurasia
Russia
Middle East assumed to provide 60% of increased trade (+8.6 mbd)
+18%
+11%
Source: IEA
Questionable major oil producersmbd
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Russia
N Sea
US
Mex/Ven
Source: BP/IEA
Europe crude oil importmbd
Source: IEA
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1m09
0.00
2.70
5.40
8.10
10.80
13.50
America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
FSU
Others
Total
mbd total Europe
Europe crude oil importmbd
Source: IEA
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1m09
0.00
2.70
5.40
8.10
10.80
13.50
America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
FSU
Others
Total
mbd total Europe
US crude oil importmbd
Source: IEA
mbd total USA
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
2.8
5.6
8.4
11.2
14
N America
Europe
M. East
Ven/Ecu
Africa
Others
Total
OECD Asia crude oil importmbd
Source: IEA
mbd total Asia
0.00
1.20
2.40
3.60
4.80
6.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 J an-090.00
1.50
3.00
4.50
6.00
7.50
Middle East Others America
Europe Africa Total
Middle East
Others
Source of Chinese crude oil import 2008
Source: IEA
3.6 mbd
Other OPEC, 0.486
Russia, 0.233
Sudan, 0.21
Saudi Arabia, 0.727
Oman, 0.292
Iran, 0.426
0.606
Angola, 0.598
Others
World oil demand
mbd
Source. IEA
-2.6-2.2-1.8-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.20.20.61.01.41.82.22.63.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
China USA*Middle East ** Rest of worldWorld
Oth. Asia: -0.06 mbdL America: -0.01 "FSU: -0.12 " Africa: +0.03 "Others: -0.03 "
Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW** 1Q07-4Q09
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
1Q
07
3Q
07
1Q
08
3Q
08
1Q
09
3Q
09
Seaborne crude trade and Middle East oil production 1970 - 2009
Seaborne crude trade bn tonne miles
Source. Fearnleys / IEA
mbd oil production
9
12
15
18
21
24
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
4,000
5,200
6,400
7,600
8,800
10,000
bn tonne miles
Oil exploration activity move with oil price
Source; EIA
Tanker supply
Tanker fleet, orderbook, SH tankers
59.5 151.8 376.7 m dwt Jan 2009 Average age 10.1 years 90% =<20 years old 76% =<15 years old 63% =<10 years old
m dwt
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
SH - 16% Orders - 39% Fleet - 100%
VLCC - 97 - 228 - 527
Suezmax - 35 - 169 - 366
Aframax - 99 - 228 - 793
Panamax - 72- 119 - 374
10-60,000 - 472 - 401 - 1563
17%
30%
45%
30%
47%
Segment - SH - Orders - fleet
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outAll tankers > 25,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2008
-35
-15
5
25
45
65
85
105
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus zerotrade growthSurplus 2.5%trade growthSurplus 4%trade growth
year
Removals in addition to phase out (conversions)
Conclusion
Growth oil demand correlates strongly with economic growth
Future growth forecasted mainly in China, India, other Asia and Middle East
Declining production in some major production countries may increase dependence on Middle East oil
Structural changes in trade, increased tonne-miles
Lower oil prices has reduced exploration activity
A tanker surplus building up
