The Nest Report Q2 2012

NestRealty.com 1 of 9

Q2 2012

New River Valley


Blacksburg Leads The Way.

As we’ve seen in other parts of Virginia and throughout the country, the core sub-market of each region is typically what helps bring the overall real estate market out of these doldrums we’ve been experiencing over the past several years.

In the New River Valley, Blacksburg is clearly the core sub-market. Anchored by the majority of jobs and Virginia Tech, Blacksburg needs to turn the corner before surrounding areas and counties can really start to turn around also. Based on the second quarter numbers, Blacksburg may be in the process of turning that proverbial corner.

While year-over-year median prices were down in Blacksburg, home sales were up...and up fairly significantly from Q2 2011. Blacksburg single family homes (+30.2%), attached homes (+90%), and condominiums (+40%) all saw increases in Q2. On top of that, inventory levels are down to levels where we could consider Blacksburg a seller’s market. At the end of June, months of inventory levels for all three Blacksburg housing types were below 5 months: condominiums (4 months), single family (4.125 moths) and attached (4.833 months). (Remember that a ‘balanced’ market represents approximately 6 months of inventory and a seller’s market is less than 6 months.)

While those trends are great, it’s important to remember that months of inventory are historically at their lowest annual point in June. So, we’d like to see these levels sustained for several more months before we make any declarations that the market in Blacksburg has officially turned.

Overall, the New River Valley MSA had a nice, steady quarter in Q2. Sales were up 3.7% and total year-over-year inventory levels fell by 17.83% in June (from 2013 to 1634 units). Months of inventory levels for the MSA fell from 11.5 months in Q2 2011 to 9.9 months this past quarter - clearly, these lower inventory levels are another great sign that will help lead to a market recovery.

Christiansburg didn’t fare as well as the MSA or Blacksburg, though. Overall sales were down (-7.7%) from 90 to 83. This marked the second straight quarter in which year-over-year sales were off for Christiansburg. The market may be turning a bit in Christiansburg as contracts written in Q2 were up for single family (+1.49%) and attached homes (+30.43%).

Another trend that we’re seeing in the New River Valley is that more homes in higher price categories are selling than in previous quarters. This is most likely a result of increased consumer confidence and also the return of the ‘move up buyer.’ For the majority of the past 4 years, many buyers looking to move up to higher priced homes could not sell their homes to allow them to buy their next home. As the market changes in the New River Valley (and in other parts of the country), we’re seeing move up buyers coming back into the marketplace.

The fundamentals seem to be in place in the New River Valley for a market recovery: a steady (and growing) economy, relatively affordable housing, and the core of the market showing some strong signs of life. It also doesn’t hurt that the region did not see a huge run up in housing prices back in the early to mid-2000s.

Stay posted to Nest Realty for more analysis and updates.


Year-over-year residential real estate sales in the New River Valley MSA saw a slight uptick in the second quarter with a modest 3.7% gain. Overall

numbers for the NRV were relatively steady to positive in most cases. Attached homes in the region saw the strongest improvement from Q2 2011: total sales were up 15%, median prices rose 5.9% and inventory levels fell by 41.3% to just 101 units. The months of inventory for attached

homes stands at 5.94 months, which represents a balanced market (not favoring buyers or sellers).

New River Valley MSA Market Snapshot

Single family homes in the New River Valley performed well in Q2 also. Total detached sales rose by 2.2%, median prices increased b 3.7%, and

total inventory levels were reduced by 15.4% to 1487 total units at the end of June. Single family months of inventory, while not as low as attached homes, fell by 10.5% to 10.62 months. Total volume for both single family (+8.8%) and attached homes (+20.7%) was also strong. This

represents some great progress towards getting back to a more normal marketplace. Q2 marks the 4th straight quarter of year-over-year sales increases in the MSA.

5 YEAR TREND

Total SoldVolume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

Q2 2012 $68,620,758 $183,478 $159,000 374 1487 10.62

Change 8.8% 6.5% 3.7% 2.2% -15.4% -10.5%

Q2 2011 $63,063,949 $172,306 $153,300 366 1757 11.87

Change -6.1% -0.7% 0.9% -5.4% 1.2% 5.3%

Q2 2010 $67,161,065 $173,543 $152,000 387 1737 11.27

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

Q2 2012 $9,427,700 $177,881 $165,000 53 101 5.94

Change 20.7% 4.8% 5.9% 15.2% -41.3% -34.4%

Q2 2011 $7,810,025 $169,783 $155,750 46 172 9.05

Change -30.8% -5.3% -11.5% -27.0% -15.3% 24.8%

Q2 2010 $11,290,787 $179,218 $176,000 63 203 7.25

Atta

ched

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Number of Sales)

MSA (Entire New River Valley MSA)

0

200

400

600

800

Q3 ’07 Q4 ’07 Q1 ’08 Q2 ’08 Q3 ’08 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10 Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12 Q2 ’12

Sing

le F

amily


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175


Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)

Overall, the Blacksburg real estate market continued in the right direction in Q2. Total sales in Blacksburg rose by 43% over Q2 2011 (89 vs. 62).

This marks the first time in three quarters that Blacksburg has seen a year-over-year increase in sales. Obviously, the 5-year sales trend is still on a downward trend. However, the Blacksburg real estate market showed progress in all market segments. Single family homes (+30.2%),

attached homes (+90%), and condominiums (+40%) all saw healthy year-over-year gains.

Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 15,270,900 272,695 245,500 56

Change 91.9% -0.6% 0.2% 93.1%

Q1 2012 7,957,600 274,400 245,000 29

Q2 2012 15,270,900 272,695 245,500 56

Change 22.1% -6.2% -9.1% 30.2%

Q2 2011 12,503,460 290,778 270,000 43

Sing

le F

amily

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 4,165,100 219,216 191,000 19

Change 220.8% 35.1% 15.6% 137.5%

Q1 2012 1,298,500 162,312 165,250 8

Q2 2012 4,165,100 219,216 191,000 19

Change 98.2% 4.3% -15.5% 90.0%

Q2 2011 2,101,400 210,140 226,000 10

Atta

ched

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 2,076,800 148,343 136,250 14

Change 54.2% 10.1% 11.2% 40.0%

Q1 2012 1,346,900 134,690 122,500 10

Q2 2012 2,076,800 148,343 136,250 14

Change 21.2% -13.4% -10.2% 40.0%

Q2 2011 1,713,000 171,300 151,750 10

Con

dos

Contracts Written Contracts Written

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

Single Family 61 48 -21.3%

Attached 11 17 54.5%

Condos 9 18 100.0%

Blacksburg median prices continued on the downward trend. Single family homes (-9.1%), attached homes (-15.5%), and condominiums (-10.2%)

all saw reductions in median prices from Q2 2011. This is a sign of a continued market correction. It’s not uncommon at all for sales to increase as median prices come down: it’s a sign that buyers are beginning to see value in the marketplace. Contracts written in Blacksburg were mixed.

Attached and condominium contracts were both up, while single family contracts written in Q2 fell by 21.3% from 2011.

5 YEAR TREND


Q2 ’12

Q1 ’12

Q4 ’11

Q3 ’11

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

4%

0%

2%

2%

22%

9%

17%

18%

34%

44%

28%

44%

33%

41%

46%

35%

7%

6%

7%

1%

Blacksburg In Town Limits Percent of Sales by Price Range

0-100K 100K-200K 200K-300K 300k-500k Over 500K

Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot (Part 2)

Single family homes continue to make up the largest percentage of sales within Blacksburg Town Limits. Approximately 6 out of every 10 sales is

a single family home. The percentage of single family homes stayed relatively steady from Q1 2012 when detached homes made up 61% of the market. The popularity of condominiums fell off slightly (from 22% to 16%) and attached homes increased from 17% to 21% from the first quarter.

The percentage of sales by price range tells an interesting story: more homes in higher price categories are selling as compared to the previous

year. Notice that the sub-$100,000 sales made up just 1% of the market: down from a range of 6-7% from the previous quarters. The most popular price category was the $200,000-$300,000 range, making up 44% of the marketplace.

16%

21%

63%

Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Sales by Type

Single Family Attached Condos


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175


Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)

The Christiansburg real estate market continued to lag a bit in Q2. Total year-over-year sales fell by 7.7% (from 90 sales to 83). This marked the

second straight quarter that Christiansburg has had a drop in year-over-year sales. While attached home sales increased by 4%, single family (-11.3%) and condominium (-33.3%) sales fell from Q2 2011. Total sales volume was off for all 3 housing types in Q2: single family volume fell by

3.1%, attached by 1.6%, and condominiums by 17.8%.

Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 10,400,000 189,091 172,000 55

Change 70.5% 5.4% 6.2% 61.8%

Q1 2012 6,099,900 179,409 162,000 34

Q2 2012 10,400,000 189,091 172,000 55

Change -3.1% 9.3% -0.3% -11.3%

Q2 2011 10,727,879 173,030 172,500 62

Sing

le F

amily

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 3,765,200 144,815 135,500 26

Change 208.0% 6.6% 8.0% 188.9%

Q1 2012 1,222,350 135,817 125,500 9

Q2 2012 3,765,200 144,815 135,500 26

Change -1.6% -5.4% -4.9% 4.0%

Q2 2011 3,827,875 153,115 142,500 25

Atta

ched

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 598,850 299,425 299,425 2

Change 67.7% 67.7% 67.7% 0.0%

Q1 2012 357,000 178,500 178,500 2

Q2 2012 598,850 299,425 299,425 2

Change -17.8% 23.3% 19.8% -33.3%

Q2 2011 728,500 242,833 250,000 3

Contracts Written Contracts Written

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

Single Family 67 68 1.49%

Attached 23 30 30.43%

Condos 4 4 NA

Con

dos

Median prices in Christiansburg were off for single family homes (-0.3%) and attached homes (-4.9%). Condominium median prices were actually

up by 19.8%. However, there were only 2 condominium sales in Christiansburg so the sample size is too small to come to any conclusions. In positive news, contracts written were up for single family (+1.49%) and attached homes (+30.43%). Contracts written for condos were flat.

5 YEAR TREND


Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot (Part 2)

Q2 ’12

Q1 ’12

Q4 ’11

Q3 ’11

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

7%

4%

4%

6%

22%

20%

18%

22%

59%

64%

71%

67%

12%

13%

7%

5%

Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Percent of Sales by Price Range

0-100K 100K-200K 200K-300K 300K-500K Over 500k

Nearly two out of every three homes purchased in Christiansburg in Q2 was a single family home. However, this is down from 76% from Q1.

Attached homes represented 31% of the total Christiansburg market, an increase from 20% in Q1. With contracts written on attached homes up in Q2, expect that sales of attached homes to continue to make up a similar percentage of the market in Q3 2012.

As was the case in Blacksburg, the sub-$100k market saw a decrease as home buyers shifted to higher priced homes. Sub-$100k homes made

up only 5% of the market - the lowest level over the last four quarters. Homes over $200,000 comprised 28% of the Christiansburg market - that’s the most since Q3 2011.

2%

31%

66%

Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Sales by Type

Single Family Attached Condos


TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 $16,800,300 $250,751 $214,900 67

Change 45.0% -0.4% -11.4% 45.7%

Q2 2011 $11,586,525 $251,881 $242,500 46

Change 8.8% 11.1% 29.3% -2.1%

Q2 2010 $10,653,060 $226,661 $187,500 47

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 $8,256,250 $121,415 $118,000 68

Change 54.4% 9.0% 13.5% 41.7%

Q2 2011 $5,347,109 $111,398 $104,000 48

Change -28.3% -19.3% -16.1% -11.1%

Q2 2010 $7,456,363 $138,081 $123,950 54

Montgomery County

Contracts WrittenContracts Written

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

51 79 54.9%

Montgomery County real estate sales had a strong Q2. Total sales were up 45.7% (from 46 to

67) and total sales volume rose by 45% to $16,800,300. Median sales prices were off by 11.4%, which most likely helped to spur the increase in sales. That sales increase trend seems to have

continued with a 54.9% year-over-year increase in contracts written. Expect sales to be strong in Montgomery County in Q3.


Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

53 73 37.7%

As predicted, Pulaski followed its strong Q1 2012 with an equally strong Q2. Total sales were

up 41.7% (from 48 to 68). Total volume rose by 54.4%. Median prices even rose by 13.5% to $118,000. Those higher prices don’t seem to be deterring buyers in Pulaski as contracts

written in Q2 jumped 37.7%. Once again, expect a strong sales quarter in Q3.

Pulaski County

Ove

rall

Ove

rall


TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 $3,653,450 $135,313 $116,000 27

Change -10.3% -6.9% -14.4% -3.6%

Q2 2011 $4,070,800 $145,386 $135,450 28

Change -12.6% 6.1% 5.0% -17.6%

Q2 2010 $4,660,181 $137,064 $129,000 34

TotalSales Volume

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 $4,302,500 $143,417 $118,500 30

Change 18.2% 18.2% 44.4% 0.0%

Q2 2011 $3,639,601 $121,320 $82,050 30

Change -22.5% -9.5% -25.4% -14.3%

Q2 2010 $4,694,200 $134,120 $110,000 35


Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

24 32 33.3%

The City of Radford struggled through a tough Q1 2012, but bounced back a little in Q2. While

median prices (-14.4%) and total volume (-10.3%) were down by double digits, total sales fell by just 1 sale (from 28 to 27). On the positive side: year-over-year contracts written were up

33.3% from 24 to 32. Radford’s recent stretch of falling median prices may be attracting buyers back into the marketplace.


Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

35 30 -14.3%

Giles County continued its steady real estate market. Total year-over-year sales were flat at

30. However, higher priced homes in Giles were selling in Q2: total sales volume rose 18.2% and median prices of sold homes increased by 44.4% to 118,500. Those higher prices may be

starting to deter buyers a bit: contracts written in Q2 were off by 14.3% (from 35 to 30). While this is not a huge drop off, it will be interesting to track into Q3.

City of Radford

Giles County

Ove

rall

Ove

rall

*Some statistics in this report come courtesy of the New River Valley Area MLS as of 7/15/12. This report covers the entire New River Valley real estate market.

The Nest Report Q2 2012

Business

Transcript of The Nest Report Q2 2012