Table of Contents€¦ · q2 2010 q2 2011 q2 2012 q2 2013 q2 2014 q2 2015 q2 2016 q2 2017 q2 2018...

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UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q2-2020)…………..… 4

Population ………………………………………………………………………………….... 8 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) 2010 – Present 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) Growth Rate (%yoy) 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 BC’s Population Growth Breakdown

Economic Indicators ………………………………………………………………..…... 9 2.1 Five-Year Posted Rate (%)2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver 2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 2010 – Present 2.4 BC Unemployment Rate 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2010 – Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 2009 – Present

Economic Indicators ...…………………………………………………………..……..10 3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2010 – Present 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 BC Bankruptcies 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

Housing Economic Indicators …………………………………………............... 11 4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations 4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations

Housing Economic Indicators………………….…………………………….……. 12 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums ………………………………..…13 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q2-2020

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New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums ……………………….….. 14 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

New Home Data: Townhomes ……………………………………………............ 15 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

UA Affordability Index: New Home Data …………………………………….. 16 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes

Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver………............ 17 10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 10.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 10.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 10.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 10.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board………….…………………………….......... 18 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments……………........... 1912.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver 12.2 Turnover Rates by Region 12.3 Availability Rates by Region 12.4 Current Rent Per Square Foot 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages

Methodology & Definitions…………………………………………………………. 20 Definitions Analytical Methods Other Assumptions

Sources …………………………………………………………………………………....… 21Sources

Q2-2020

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UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific’s “State of the Market” quarterly publication. The Q2-2020 “State of the Market” report provides current quarterly statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as well as a composite of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. The report also includes statistics on the newer purpose-built rental market in Metro Vancouver, and the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index derived from Urban Analytics’ NHSLive database and BC Housing’s new home registry statistics.

Population Growth & Housing Starts

The above graph shows the trend of Metro Vancouver’s housing starts (one start = one unit) and population change over the past five years. Metro Vancouver’s total population aged 15 and older increased by 10,500 residents (0.46 percent) this quarter, which was two percent higher than the growth rate in Q2-2019. Total housing starts (4,928 units in Q2-2020) was 24 percent below the five-year average of second quarters and decreased by 4,552 units (48 percent) when compared to the same quarter last year. The year-over-year decrease in total starts is primarily attributed to apartment starts decreasing in all regions. Apartment starts in the Outer Metro region, Inner Metro region, and City of Vancouver have decreased by 79, 62, and 16 percent, respectively, in the same timeframe.

Note that housing prices are more likely to fall in the event where new housing supply exceeds current demand levels. There has been only one occurrence within the past five years where housing starts have exceeded population growth. Metro Vancouver’s housing starts have increased by 21 percent relative to Q1-2020 and new home prices have remained relatively stable. Also note that a large majority of the new housing starts have already been sold in the pre-sale market and do not necessarily represent the number of new units coming to market that will be available for purchase.

The above graph shows the ratio of Metro Vancouver’s population growth to housing starts. The Q2-2020 ratio of 2.1 and was 39 percent above the five-year average of second quarters. Out of the 12,219 units released in actively selling pre-sale projects that had not begun construction by the end of the quarter, 66 percent (8,040 units) have already been sold. This total sold will continue to increase before construction of these units completes. Further, the population tables above do not factor demand for housing from emporary esidents in Metro Vancouver each year (i.e. International Students & Temporary Foreign Workers).

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Q2-2020

Local Economic Factors

The Bank of Canada maintained exceptionally low interest rates at 0.25 percent in the second quarter of 2020. In turn, the five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada has fallen for the second time within a three-month period from 4.94 to 4.79 percent. The unemployment rate in BC rose to 12.7 percent in June while Vancouver’s unemployment rate rose to 13.1 percent. These factors suggest that the Bank of Canada may continue to keep interest rates low to help further stimulate the economy for the remainder of 2020 and beyond.

The reopening of BC’s economy in late May resulted in stronger buying activity, as evidenced by the 1,583 new home sales across all product types in the second quarter. This figure is only six percent lower than the same quarter last year. Higher sales activity is anticipated for Q3-2020 as the spring market has shifted into the summer and fall months. In particular, the new home market south of the Fraser has been performing well of late, as homes here cater primarily to end-users and are offered at relatively lower price points. Overall affordability levels have improved slightly from the previous quarter, as appealing financing options (i.e. 5-year fixed mortgages with 1.94 to 2.29 percent interest rates) are currently being offered in the market.

Average per square foot rents for currently available, purpose-built rental units in each of the Inner and Outer Metro regions and he City of Vancouver continue to rise. Depending on location and product type, overall rent increases ranging between $0.06 to $0.46 per square foot have occurred in the market over the past quarter. A total of 33,604 purpose-built rental units are currently in the planning stages throughout Metro Vancouver. Although the government has not made adjustments to the immigration quota, the declining rate of immigration to BC and Metro Vancouver in the second quarter of 2020 has the potential to adversely affect vacancy and rental rates in the short term.

Global Economic Factors

Global economic uncertainty continued to persist throughout Q2-2020 as a widely accessible vaccine for the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to be released. One of the more notable events in Q2 was a congressional hearing of the CEO’s from Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook with the intention of highlighting the growing global and economic influence of the world’s largest technology companies. Meanwhile at the time of this publication (August 2020), the Nasdaq is at an all-time high of 11,200, which is up 115 percent from five years ago and up 400 percent from the same period in 2010. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to 25,813 at the end of the second quarter, improving from the 21,917 points recorded in the first quarter of the year. The price of crude oil also rebounded to $39.46 by the end of the second quarter of 2020 from the 10 year low of $21.04 observed in April 2020.

We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the State of the Market report and find it informative, helpful and convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication.

Sincerely,

Urban Analytics Inc.

Michael Ferreira Jon Bennest

Q2-2020

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Population

Insights & Comments: Metro Vancouver’s population (aged 15+) continued to grow steadily to 2,313,000 residents at the end of Q2-2020.

This was 10,500 more residents than the previous quarter, representing a 0.46 percent increase (0.05 percent lower than the growth rate in Q1-2020).

Net overall migration to BC for the most recent quarter nearly doubled when compared to the annual low observed in Q4-2019. The most recent data available (Q1-

2020) showed 9,271 additional residents to the Province.

This was 33 percent lower (6,871 less migrants) than Q1-2019.

Net interprovincial migration for the most recent update (Q1-2020) was 3,247 migrants, which was 2,239 more migrants than in Q1-2019 and 2,451 more migrants

than in Q1-2018.

International migration to BC consistently experiences seasonal highs in Q3 and lows in Q4 of each year. The most recent available data (Q1-2020) showed 6,024 net

migrants in that quarter. This was 53 percent lower (6,871 fewer migrants) than Q1-2019.

1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 2010 – Present (15+)

1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration

1.2 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) Growth Rate (%)

1.4 British Columbia International Migration

1.5 British Columbia Net Migration

1.6 British Columbia Growth Breakdown

Q2-2020

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Insights & Comments:

The five-year posted rate dropped from 5.04 to 4.94 percent at the end of the quarter.

Metro Vancouver’s labour force decreased by 94,900 people to a total of 1,419,600 workers in Q2-2020. This total represented a 6.27 percent decrease from the

previous quarter and an 8.17 percent decrease from the second quarter of 2019.

BC’s unemployment rate increased to 13.1 percent in Q2-2020: up 7.8 percent from the previous quarter and up 9.1 percent from the second quarter of 2019.

Canada’s consumer price index decreased by 0.7 percent from Q2-2019 to Q2-2020, while Metro Vancouver’s CPI increased by 0.2 percent over the same time period.

Based on the most recent data available (Q1-2020), $21.7 billion worth of retail sales were recorded in Canada over Q1-2020, which was 0.02 percent less than the

previous quarter and 0.30 percent less than the same quarter last year.

Canada’s GDP decreased for the first time since Q4-2016 and totaled over $2.06 trillion at the end of Q1-2020 (most recent data available). This total was down 0.87

percent compared to the same quarter last year but was still 6.5 percent higher than the same quarter five years ago.

2.1 Five –Year Posted Rate (%)

2.2 Consumer Price Index

2.3 Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 2010 - Present

2.4 British Columbia Unemployment Rate

2.5 BC Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2010 - Present

2.6 Canada GDP: 2010 - Present

Q2-2020

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Insights & Comments: The Federal budgetary balance showed a deficit of $10.8 Billion in Q1-2020. The deficit has increased by $5.6 Billion compared to the previous quarter’s net deficit

but is $1.3 Billion less than the net deficit recorded in Q1-2019.

In the most recent data available (Q1-2020), investment in new multi-family construction in BC totaled $2 Billion. This was 6.3 percent higher than the previous

quarter and 11.1 percent higher than Q1-2019.

The price of crude oil increased to $39.46 USD per barrel by the end of Q2-2020. This showed a 23 percent increase from the previous quarter but decreased by 34

percent from the same quarter last year. Current crude oil prices are 27 percent lower than the five-year average price of $53.93 USD per barrel.

There were 961 bankruptcies recorded in BC in Q1-2020, which was four percent less than the same quarter last year and 37 percent less than in Q1-2015.

The DJIA has rebounded to 25,813 points in Q2-2020; a three percent year-over-year decrease and 16 percent higher than the five-year average.

The TSX has also rebounded from the Q1-2020 low of 11,172 up to 16,400 at the time of this publication.

3.1 Budgetary Balance, Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2010 - Present

3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 British Columbia Bankruptcies

3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

Q2-2020

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Housing Economic Indicators

All new homes in the province must be registered with BC Housing. The registration data is collected by BC Housing in the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction defects. The registration of new homes must occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home registrations measure residential construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences and indicates the number of units included in each project.

- “Single” includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations.

- "Multi” includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (two or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit rental buildings (purpose built rentals).

- New 2018, 2019, and 2020 data has been added for Squamish (Inner Metro) and Abbotsford (Outer Metro).

Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time.


Single family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 930 in Q2-2020; down 15 percent (167 fewer units) from the previous quarter and up 12 percent (96

more units) from the same quarter last year.

The Outer Metro region accounted for 44 percent (485 units) of the total single family home registrations, while 20 percent (216 units) were in the City of Vancouver,

and 21 percent (229 units) were in the Inner Metro region.

Multi-family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 2,372 in Q2-2020. This was a four percent decrease (107 fewer units) from the previous quarter, and a 54

percent decrease (2,760 fewer units) year-over-year.

Total multi-family registrations in the City of Vancouver decreased by 63 percent (392 fewer units), while the Inner and Outer Metro regions experienced decreases

of eight percent (132 fewer units) and 77 percent (2,236 fewer units), respectively when compared to the same quarter last year.

The Outer Metro region represented 26 percent (654 units) of the total multi-family home registrations, while 60 percent (1,489 units) were registered in the Inner

Metro region and nine percent (229 units) were registered in the City of Vancouver.

It is important to note that a large majority of these units have already been pre-sold up to two years prior to construction beginning.

Home registrations of all product types in Metro Vancouver totaled 3,302 in Q2-2020; an eight percent decrease (274 fewer units) from the previous quarter, and a

45 percent decrease (2,664 fewer units) year-over-year. This was the lowest number of overall home registrations of all product types since Q1-2013.

4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations

4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations

Q2-2020

A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in B.C. The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon. The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf

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Housing Economic Indicators


A total of 4,928 new housing starts were recorded in Q2-2020, a 21 percent increase (846 more units) from the previous quarter. The largest contributor to housing

start totals in Q2-2020 was the condominium sector in the Inner Metro region, which accounted for 34 percent (1,673 units) of all new starts in Metro Vancouver.

A total of 640 townhome starts were recorded in Q2-2020, with 402 units (63 percent) located in the Outer Metro region and 238 units (37 percent) in the Inner

Metro region. The majority of these units have already been pre-sold. The City of Vancouver had no new housing starts over the quarter.

The most recent data available for residential building permit values is from Q1-2020. The three month average of building permit values was $675 Million in Q1-

2020; an increase of 14 percent ($85 Million) from the same quarter last year and an increase of 36 percent ($179 Million) from the same quarter five years ago.

The new home price indices for Metro Vancouver and BC has increased for the second consecutive quarter, both increasing by 0.1 percent from Q1-2020,

respectively. Price indices for Metro Vancouver and BC remain above their five year averages by 3.06 percent and 3.11 percent, respectively.

Rental housing vacancy rates remain well below 1.5 percent across all municipalities, with the exception of the Tri-Cities & Ridge-Meadows regions. The rental

housing vacancy rate in the Tri-Cities & Ridge Meadows region has not exceeded two percent since 2014. Refer to methodology on Page 20.

5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts

5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts

5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts

5.4 Residential Building Permits – Metro Vancouver

5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index

5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

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New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums


A total of 133 new concrete condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in Q2-2020, which is similar to last quarter and is four percent lower

than the same quarter last year (five fewer projects).

The Inner Metro region accounted for 50 percent (67 projects) of all actively selling, new concrete projects while the City of Vancouver accounted for 36 percent (48

projects) and the Outer Metro region accounted for 14 percent (18 projects).

A total of 439 new concrete condominiums sold in Q2-2020, which is down by 57 percent (574 fewer sales) from the previous quarter and down by 34 percent (227

fewer sales) from the same quarter last year. This was the lowest quarterly sales total reported over the last ten years.

Sales in the Outer Metro region were similar to the same quarter last year; however, sales in the City of Vancouver were 48 percent lower, and sales in the Inner

Metro region were 68 percent lower when compared to the same quarter last year.

Of the 439 new concrete condominium sales, 69 percent (302 sales) were in the Inner Metro region, 12 percent (51 sales) were in the City of Vancouver, and 20

percent (86 sales) were in the Outer Metro region.

Burnaby/New Westminster represented 27 percent of all new concrete condominium sales in Q2-2020 with a total of 120 units sold in those municipalities during

the quarter. Richmond/South Delta accounted for 19 percent of all new concrete condominium sales with 81 units sold over the quarter.

There were 4,969 released and unsold new concrete condominiums at the end of Q2-2020; a four percent decrease (213 fewer units) compared to the same quarter

last year. 56 percent of all released and unsold units are currently located in the Inner Metro region.

Out of the 4,969 units of released and unsold concrete inventory, 157 units (3.2 percent) were move-in ready at the end of the quarter. This represented a 46 percent

decline in move-in ready concrete condominiums (134 fewer units) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

The Inner Metro region accounted for 49 percent of move-in ready units (77 units), the City of Vancouver accounted for 20 percent (31 units), and the Outer Metro

region accounted for 31 percent (49 units). 1: Released and unsold “inventory” includes new home product available for sale that is pre-construction, under construction, and completed. “Standing Inventory” refers to unsold units that are

complete and move-in ready.

6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales

6.3 Concrete Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q2-2020

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New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums


The number of actively selling wood frame condominium projects in Metro Vancouver decreased to 92 in Q2-2020; which is one less project from the previous

quarter. The number of actively selling projects was down 19 percent (22 fewer projects) when compared to the same period five years ago.

The Outer Metro region accounted for 49 percent (45 projects) of all wood frame condominium projects in Metro Vancouver, while the Inner Metro region accounted

for 38 percent (35 projects), and the City of Vancouver accounted for 13 percent (12 projects).

A total of 434 new wood frame condominium sales were recorded in Q2-2020. This was 26 percent lower (150 fewer sales) than the previous quarter, 25 percent

lower (147 less sales) than the same quarter last year, and 59 percent lower (626 fewer sales) than the same quarter five years ago.

Wood frame condominium sales were down by 91 percent (29 fewer sales) in the City of Vancouver, down by 56 percent (141 fewer sales) in the Inner Metro region,

and up by seven percent (20 more sales) in the Outer Metro region when compared to last quarter.

Wood frame condominium sales were down by 99 percent (258 fewer sales) in the City of Vancouver, down by 77 percent (367 fewer sales) in the Inner Metro

region, and one less sale from the 322 sales recorded in the Outer Metro region when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

The Central Surrey & North Delta submarket accounted for 35 percent of Metro Vancouver’s total wood frame condominium sales with 154 sales.

There were 2,393 released and unsold new wood frame condominium units at the end of Q2-2020; a three percent decrease (62 less units) from the previous quarter

but a 20 percent increase (404 more units) from the same quarter last year.

This also represents a 26 percent increase (500 more units) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

The Outer Metro region represented 50 percent (1,197 units) of the total available inventory, while 46 percent (1,104 units) were in the Inner Metro region and four

percent (92 units) were in the City of Vancouver.

Only 158 of the 2,393 released and unsold new wood frame condominiums in Metro Vancouver were move-in ready at the end of Q2-2020. This marked a 67 percent

decline (316 fewer move-in ready units) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

Central Surrey & North Delta accounted for a combined 39 percent of Metro Vancouver’s total standing inventory of wood frame condominium units with 61 move-in

ready units available.

7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales

7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

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New Home Data: Townhomes


There were 146 actively selling townhome projects in Metro Vancouver in Q2-2020; a four percent increase (six more projects) from the previous quarter, a 25

percent increase (29 more projects) from the same quarter last year and a 64 percent increase (57 more projects) from the same quarter five years ago.

The Outer Metro region represented 49 percent (71 projects) of all actively selling townhome projects, while the Inner Metro region represented 41 percent (60

projects) and the City of Vancouver represented ten percent (15 projects).

A total of 710 new townhome sales were recorded in Q2-2020; a two percent decrease (18 fewer sales) from the previous quarter, a 60 percent increase (266 more

sales) from the same quarter last year but a 21 percent decrease (191 fewer sales) from the same quarter five years ago.

The Outer Metro region accounted for 62 percent (441 sales) of all new townhome sales in Metro Vancouver while 36 percent (253 sales) occurred in the Inner Metro

region and only two percent (16 sales) occurred in the City of Vancouver.

A total of 2,115 new townhome units were released and unsold at the end of Q2-2020. This was an increase of 19 percent (331 more units) from the previous quarter,

a 37 percent increase (570 more units) from the same quarter last year, and a 175 percent increase (1,347 more units) from the same quarter five years ago.

The Outer Metro region represented 53 percent (1,130 units) of all released and unsold townhome inventory, while the Inner Metro region represented 39 percent

(828 units) and the City of Vancouver represented seven percent (157 units).

All regions across Metro Vancouver experienced increases in released and unsold inventories when compared to the same quarter last year.

The largest increase of 78 percent (69 more units) occurred in the City of Vancouver, while a 48 percent increase (365 more units) occurred in the Outer Metro region

and a 20 percent increase (136 more units) occurred in the Inner Metro region.

Metro Vancouver had 305 move-in ready townhomes at the end of Q2-2020. This was a 28 percent increase (67 more units) when compared to Q2-2019 and a 31

percent increase (73 more units) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

A total of 168 (55 percent) of those 305 move-in ready townhome units were in the Outer Metro region, while 135 units (44 percent) were in the Inner Metro region

and two units (one percent) were in the City of Vancouver.

8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing

8.2 Townhome Sales

8.3 Townhome Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

Q2-2020

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76.4% 76.5% 77.1% 75.0% 73.6% 73.7% 72.4% 73.1%

55.1%

39.5%31.0% 34.7% 33.5%

29.0% 29.6%34.6% 36.5% 36.9% 37.2% 39.7%

44.7%53.4% 51.5% 52.6% 50.7%

44.1% 42.2%34.4% 37.2%

27.2% 29.5%

29.7%

18.0%

16.4% 17.8% 19.6% 21.4% 23.9% 21.9% 22.7% 25.0% 24.3%31.6% 31.5% 29.7%

20.9%12.9% 9.0%

10.1% 9.5% 4.7% 6.7% 9.0%6.9%

7.2% 7.3% 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 5.0% 6.2% 6.5% 5.4%

Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver

71.7% 73.9% 73.4% 73.9%68.2% 66.9% 66.4% 67.4%

57.7% 56.7% 54.8%

42.0% 41.4% 42.1% 43.6% 46.1% 48.6% 49.2% 49.5% 50.6% 54.3%61.9% 60.0% 59.5% 57.1% 54.5% 52.7%

49.1% 48.1% 47.7%39.9% 42.1%

26.2% 26.4% 23.2% 24.9%31.4% 30.2%

36.3% 35.0% 37.1% 39.7%

38.2% 39.9% 36.7%30.6%

26.8%29.6% 29.3% 29.4%

20.5%

33.2%26.4%

14.6% 15.0% 14.3% 15.8% 17.9% 14.7% 14.2% 15.4% 19.2% 20.1%


68.5%64.4% 67.9% 64.7%

57.9%53.7%

46.4%55.1%

47.7%52.7% 53.2% 50.9% 52.8% 51.3% 48.4%

53.8% 52.5%

41.1% 41.4% 43.8%47.8%59.0%

49.2% 47.9%

49.3%

36.8% 32.6%

36.2% 36.6% 39.3%32.9%

28.3%

19.2% 20.6% 17.9% 19.1% 20.7% 20.9% 22.8% 22.5% 24.4% 27.3%27.4%32.2%

22.4%

27.3%

11.3% 9.0% 8.4% 10.3%4.2%

11.0% 7.1% 8.2% 9.0% 7.9% 8.8% 5.9% 6.2% 5.9% 6.6% 6.3% 3.7%


UA Affordability Index: New Home Data

Insights & Comments: Affordability eroded for all new homes across Metro Vancouver when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

The largest five-year change continues to be the decline in affordability for new concrete condominiums with decreases of 32 percent in the Outer Metro region, 29

percent in the Inner Metro region, and 26 percent in the City of Vancouver.

Overall affordability for most sectors of the new home market across Metro Vancouver improved slightly compared to the same quarter last year (between 0.4 and

9.5 percent). The only exceptions were erosions of affordability for new concrete condominiums in the City of Vancouver by 1.5 percent and a 4.7 percent reduction

of affordability for new townhomes in the Outer Metro region.

The City of Vancouver remained the least affordable region with only 20 percent of income earning households able to purchase the average priced new wood frame

condominium in this area. Just four percent of earning households in Vancouver Proper were able to afford an average new townhome, and only five percent were

able to afford an average new concrete condominium. Refer to methodology on page 20.

9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums

9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums

9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes

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Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver


A total of 5,553 re-sale units sold in Q2-2020 in Greater Vancouver – 2,692 apartment re-sales, 1,789 single family re-sales, and 1,072 townhome re-sales.

Year-over-year apartment, single family, and townhome re-sales were down by 301 sales (10 percent), 300 sales (14 percent), and 87 sales (8 percent), respectively.

Sales-to-listings ratios of townhomes and apartments increased from the same quarter last year by 112 percent and 98 percent, respectively.

The benchmark prices by product type in Greater Vancouver in Q2-2020 were as follows: Apartment - $684,267, Townhome - $793,433, Single Family - $1,461,000.

This quarter marked the third quarterly increase in benchmark prices for townhome and apartment re-sales in Greater Vancouver after five quarters of decreases.

The benchmark price was up by 2.3 percent ($33,500 higher) for single family re-sales, up by 1.8 percent ($14,300 higher) for townhome re-sales and up by 3.9

percent ($25,667 higher) for apartment re-sales when compared to the same quarter last year.

When compared to the same quarter five years ago, apartment re-sale prices increased by 72 percent ($287,167 higher), townhome re-sale prices increased by 59

percent ($293,033 higher), and single family re-sale prices increased by 33 percent ($358,433 higher) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)

10.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings

10.4 Attached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)

10.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings

10.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)

Q2-2020

Table of Contents

0200400600800

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Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board


A total of 2,714 re-sale units sold in Q2-2020 in the Fraser Valley – 1,190 single family re-sales, 857 townhome re-sales, and 738 apartment re-sales.

Re-sales were down across all product types as compared to the same quarter last year; Apartment re-sales were down by 346 sales (32 percent), townhomes re-

sales were down by 229 sales (21 percent), and single family re-sales were down by 292 sales (21 percent).

Sales-to-listings ratios for single family homes increased by five percent, while townhomes and apartments decreased by two percent and 22 percent, respectively,

when compared to Q2-2019.

The benchmark prices by product type in the Fraser Valley in Q2-2020 were as follows: Apartment - $396,829, Townhome - $590,253, Single Family - $1,087,637.

The benchmark price was up by five percent ($46,865 higher) for single family re-sales, up by two percent ($10,010 higher) for townhome re-sales and up by one

percent ($3,026 higher) for apartment re-sales when compared to the same quarter last year.

11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Average Prices

11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings

11.4 Attached Re-Sale Average Prices

11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings

11.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Average Prices

Q2-2020

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2191

0

5045

1762 1567

2646

0 0 1260

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 0 126

Concrete Units Woodframe Units Townhome Units

3.2%

1.8%

4.1%

96.8%

98.2%

95.9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Inner Metro

Outer Metro

Vancouver

Turnover Rate Occupancy Rate

36.2%

17.2%

45.5%

63.8%

82.8%

54.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Inner Metro

Outer Metro

Vancouver

Availability Rate Occupancy Rate

$3.81$3.40$3.24 $3.15

$2.31

$3.28

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

Vancouver Inner Metro Outer Metro

Pric

e PS

F

Concrete Woodframe Townhome

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

Concrete Units Wood Frame Units Townhome Units

New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments


The overall turnover rate for fully leased rental projects across Metro Vancouver at the end of Q2-2020 was at 3.6 percent; 1.3 percent lower than last quarter.

The overall availability rate for all actively leasing projects in Metro Vancouver decreased from 32 percent last quarter down to 30 percent in Q2-2020.

The City of Vancouver had the highest rate of availability for recently launched purpose-built rental units at 46 percent with 419 units currently available.

Note that recently launched rental projects The Royals and The Lonsdale represent the majority of the released and available rental units in the Inner Metro region.

Average rents for currently available, purpose-built, concrete, wood frame, and townhome rental units increased in each region by between one and 17 percent

(between $0.06 and $0.46 higher rent per square foot) when compared to Q2-2019. The only exceptions were a decrease in average rent for wood frame apartments

in the Outer Metro region and concrete apartments in the City of Vancouver ($0.08 and $0.01 lower rent per square foot, respectively).

A total of 33,604 purpose-built rental units are currently in the planning stages throughout Metro Vancouver: 48 percent in the City of Vancouver, 34 percent in the

Inner Metro region and 18 percent in the Outer Metro region. Note that current market conditions may impact the completion of some of these units.

12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver

12.2 Rental Unit Turnover Rate by Region

12.3 Rental Unit Availability Rate by Region

12.4 Currently Available Average Rent Per Square Foot

12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages

Q2-2020

Page generated with NHSLive Rental data. For more detailed rental information, contact [email protected] for subscription options. The majority of the Rental Apartment data referred to herein as ‘newer purpose-built rental’ relates to purpose built rental apartment buildings completed since 2010. Refer to methodology on page 20.

Table of Contents

Methodology & Definitions – Affordability Index

Definitions Inner Metro: Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody & Port Coquitlam. Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Abbotsford. Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East. Prices Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used). Income The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 2016 Census Survey. Assumed Down Payments Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 20% Townhomes: 30% The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in their existing property. Analytical Methods Five year, fixed rate 30-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of analysis and taking the greater of the average plus 2% or the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada. Other Assumptions The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage payments.

Methodology & Definitions – New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments

Analytical Methods Chart 5.6: CMHC rental housing vacancy data includes structures with at least three rental units, which have been on the market for at least three months. Chart 12.1: Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver: Sum of “move-in ready” units by product type. “Move-in ready” is defined as those projects that are Fully Leased, as well as those that are Active (actively leasing) with standing inventory. Sample size of 13,337 units over 124 newer rental apartment and townhome projects in Metro Vancouver.

Chart 12.2: Turnover Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are fully leased only. Chart 12.3: Availability Rates by Region: Projects included are those that have recently launched and are actively leasing only. Chart 12.4: Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot: A weighted average of rental rates of currently available units in fully leased projects and average rental rates achieved in projects that have been actively leasing for greater than three months. The average per region is based on average dollar per square foot prices of each sub-market. Chart 12.5: Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages: Total units of every project in the contemplated section of the Rental database, by product type.

Q2-2020

Table of Contents

Sources Sources

Q2-2020

1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.2 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.4 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.5 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.6 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 2.1 - Bank of Canada 2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index 2.3 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.4 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province 2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product 3.1 - Stats Canada Revenue, Expenditure & Budget 3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing 3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices) 3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics 3.5 - Yahoo Finance 3.6 - Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada 4.1 - BC Housing - New Single Family Registrations 4.2 - BC Housing - New Multi-Family Registrations 5.1 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.2 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.3 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits 5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes 5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report 6.1 - UA New Home Source Database 6.2 - UA New Home Source Database 6.3 - UA New Home Source Database 6.4 - UA New Home Source Database

Table of Contents

7.1 - UA New Home Source Database 7.2 - UA New Home Source Database 7.3 - UA New Home Source Database 7.4 - UA New Home Source Database 8.1 - UA New Home Source Database 8.2 - UA New Home Source Database 8.3 - UA New Home Source Database 8.4 - UA New Home Source Database 9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.2 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.3 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 10.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.2 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.3 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.4 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.5 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.6 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.2 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.3 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.4 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.5 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.6 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 12.1 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.2 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.3 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.4 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.5 – UA New Home Source Rental Database

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