The Mobile and Wireless Scenario - PC för Allagartner...The Mobile and Wireless Scenario...

The Mobile and Wireless Scenario

MobileWorld 2009

March 5, 2009

Kista Science Tower

Kista, Sweden

Leif-Olof Wallin

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Page 1Leif-Olof WallinRA12_108, 2/09, AE


Mobility and the EconomyInconvenience or Meltdown?

Impact of Recession

• Small handset market shrinkage in 09• Slower global growth in subscribers and

revenue in 2009.• Accelerated shake-out and consolidation of

smaller/weaker vendors.• Growth resumes in 2010.

Shallow/short12 to 18 months3% decline in GDPUnemployment 5% to 10%

Extreme/long36+ months30% decline in GDPUnemployment 30%

• Hardware and services market shrinks by 10s of percent through 2011.

• Multiple major vendor failures and massive restructuring.

• Growth doesn't resume before 2012• Substantial slowdown in innovation.

Weather the downturn and prepare for recovery

Weather the downturn and prepare for recovery

Try to surviveTry to survive

The major concern among both vendors and clients at this time is the economy. Much depends on the form the recession takes and how effective governments are in minimizing its impact. A shallow/short recession would see reductions in growth in many mobile markets and a small shrinkage in some areas (such as handsets). Corporations will defer spending which will put pressure on weaker vendors. Strong vendors and corporations would be inconvenienced, but not seriously threatened. In this scenario 2009 would be inconvenient but growth would return by 2010. A long and deep recession would be very serious involving 10s of percent decline in key market indicators such as service revenue could trigger major failures and restructuring. In this scenario growth might not return before 2011 and survival would be the imperative for many users and technology suppliers.




Key Issues

1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?

2. How will corporations choose and use mobility solutions to support customers and employees?




Key Issues






Wireless Network Technologies

1 G

100 M

10 M

1 M

100 K1m 10m 100m 1km10 cm

Touch In-Room Campus National

Spe

ed (b

its p

er s

econ

d)

Bluetooth 3 LE, 2010

UWB Bluetooth 3, 2012

Bluetooth 2.1, 2008

802.11n, 2008- 2010

Basic EDGE, 2008

HSUPA, 2009

HSPA+, 2010

LTE 2010

LTE-A (4G), 2014

EDGE evolution

802.11g, 2008

Bluetooth 3 with 802.11 bearer, 2010

NFC 2008

4G

3G

2G

WiMax

Wireless performance and latency are improving and will likely continue to do so for a decade. HSUPA delivers performance approximately equivalent to slow wired broadband.LTE will likely unify CDMA and GSM, and has a defined path to LTE-A, which will be ITU-4G-compliant. LTE will start deployment around 2010 and should be able to deliver a reliable 10/10 experience (that is, 10 Mbps at 10 ms latency, which is sufficient for a wide range of applications).WiMax will remain a relative niche, serving as a metro-area fill-in network in some countries.802.11n will slowly replace 100 Mbps wired Ethernet to enable "all-wireless" homes and offices.Satellites remain expensive, bandwidth will increase to around 10 mbps for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) services around 2012, experimental systems such as Japan's Kizuna achieved 150 Mbps downlink in 2008.2G GSM technology will comprise approximately two thirds of all cellular connections through 2012 because many emerging markets will not adopt 3G rapidly. Low cost wireless broadband is stretching the capacity of some 3G networks and backhaul which may result in a reduction in flat-rate pricing. Action Item: Plan for more complex tariffs and price increases for wireless broadband delivered over cellular networks. Understand which contracts and devices your customers have.

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?

Strategic Planning Assumptions: By year-end 2011, mobile WiMAX will fail to achieve 3% of worldwide handset penetration and will handle less than 1% of mobile wireless calls.




Technologies to Watch in 2009 to 2012

Bluetooth 3.0

User Interfaces

Location

802.11n

• Additional Wi-Fi and low energy modes.

• New features enable new opportunities (e.g. sensors and proximity marketing).

• Spec. in 2009; devices start shipping in 2010.

• All major manufacturers support touch.

• More types of user input and sensor.

• Intense focus on usability and "cool."

• Many location technologies, including GPS.

• Location-based search, services and content.

• Maps for inputand output.

• "All-wireless" homes and offices.

• Disruptive for corporationsto deploy.

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?Short-term technologies for business and IT organizations to watch during the next three years include:Bluetooth 3.0 will deliver major improvements in power consumption and features with device shipments starting in 2010. Support of Wi-Fi as a bearer will delay UWB Bluetooth. Low Energy (LE) Bluetooth will also enable new sensor/peripheral devices and business opportunities. User interfaces have emerged as a major area of differentiation and competition (for example, on devices from Apple and HTC). Considerable innovation will occur in this area during the next five years.Location will be deduced using several technologies, and will be a key enabler for new mobile business propositions and services based on context and "moments of need." 802.11n enables "all-wireless" homes and offices, although it may be problematic for corporations because of its complexity, the need to "rip and replace" old access points and backbone network connections, and the myriad 576 data rate configurations covering 2.4GHz and 5GHz solutions.Action Item: Consider 802.11n for new-build office deployments but try to achieve return on investmentfrom established 802.11 b/g deployments before replacing them with 802.11n.

Strategic Planning Assumption: By year-end 2011, 70% of all new worldwide voice and data client-to-LAN connections will be wireless.




Technologies to Watch in 2009 to 2012

Display Technologies

Mobile Web and Widgets

HSUPA and LTE

Near-Field Wireless

• Flexible and passive displays.

• Low power-consumption (e.g. e-ink and OLED).

• Pico projectors

• Simple and agile applications.

• Tools to address handset diversity.

• Slow standards evolution.

• Cellular competitive with DSL and WiMAX

• Embedded wireless becomes viable.

• Performance improves through 2015.

• Mobile payment, ticketing, taggingand authentication.

• Slow adoption by retailers, consumers and handset manufacturers.

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?More short-term technologies for business and IT organizations to watch during the next three years:Display technologies are evolving fast and will enable improved battery life, new device form factors (for example, the Polymer Vision "Readius") and new use cases (for example, pico projectors).Mobile Web and widgets will become increasingly viable as networks improve and will provide a low-TCO solution for applications to target a wide range of device types. Web applications will get richer as standards bodies are define ways for Web applications to access persistent data and handset APIs .HSUPA and LTE make cellular networks viable for a broader range of applications, and will also make "built-in" cellular technically and economically viable.Near-field wireless is likely to emerge as a standard for secure mobile payment and proximity applications, although deployment will be slow because a new ecosystem must be built, including devices, retailers, operators and financial services organizations.Action Item: Organizations wanting to prepare for mobile payment should conduct NFC trials.

Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2012, flexible, curved and nonrectangular displays will enable several radically new personal device form factors.




Mobile Devices —2009 Will be a Challenging Year

Apple

Mobile Device Global Market Q4 2008

Nokia

Samsung

Sony Ericsson

2008 2010 2012

Basicphones

Enhancedphones

Smartphones

Feature

Entry

Mobile Device Forecasts, worldwide

2bn

0

Motorola

LG

1bn

ZTE

Others 0,8% or less

RIM

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?1. We expect the handset market to shrink a little in 2009, this could drive further vendor consolidation.2. By 2012 smartphones (those with an identifiable operating system) will make up approximately 40% of shipments. The proportion of smartphones will vary dramatically by region, from as much as 75% to as little as 20%.3. The market is still dominated by five large vendors, with three smaller companies (RIM, ZTE and Apple) trying to join the leaders. Changes in the positions and composition of the leaders are likely.4. Nokia dominates with a strong presence in both mature and emerging markets. Nokia's Ovi services strategy continues to evolve based on core services such as music, games, image sharing and mapping. In 2008 Nokia exited the enterprise software and tools business. Motorola has failed to find a buyer for its handset division and is still struggling to stabilize the business. Samsung has a strong devices business but a weak services or enterprise strategy.Action item: Handsets will increasingly be differentiated by applications and services, all handset vendors should define a strategy for services.

Strategic Planning Assumption: Smartphones will constitute 40% of handsets shipped worldwide in 2012.




Mobile Platforms 2010

SymbianSymbian48%48%

RIMRIM17%17%

Windows MobileWindows Mobile12%12%

OS/XOS/X12%12%

Linux (inc Android)Linux (inc Android)10%10%

Open source from 2010, will increase # of Symbian manufacturers.

Initially open Symbian will be similar to S60..

Eclipse license may increase diversity in some areas.

Open source from 2010, will increase # of Symbian manufacturers.

Initially open Symbian will be similar to S60..

Eclipse license may increase diversity in some areas.

End to end control gives security.

Growing ecosystem initiatives.

End to end control gives security.

Growing ecosystem initiatives.

WM 6.5 in 2009, WM7 around 2010

Making WM into a competitive consumer OS is the biggest challenge.

Significant strategy changes are possible.

WM 6.5 in 2009, WM7 around 2010

Making WM into a competitive consumer OS is the biggest challenge.

Significant strategy changes are possible.

78% Basic phones and enhanced phones

22% Smartphones

Android will take several years to mature.

Android will take several years to mature.

End to end control gives superb usability and a develop-friendly ecosystem.

End to end control gives superb usability and a develop-friendly ecosystem.

Open Closed Predicted Mobile Platform market Share 2010

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?The growing importance of smartphones (those with an identifiable operating system) means that in the short term platforms are a major battleground because the best user experiences are platform-specific. Symbian dominates in 2008 and will become an open-source platform by 2010, driven by Nokia's desire for more Symbian devices to access Ovi and the long-term view that owning a platform is less strategic. RIM has a solid presence, but this is more a reflection of the small smartphone market size in 2008 than the number of RIM devices shipping. RIM's challenge is to make the platform more consumer-oriented and to grow the range of devices. The new touch-screen "Storm" is a good start.Windows Mobile has a strong corporate presence but is struggling in the consumer marketplace. Windows Mobile 6.5 (expected in 2009) and 7.0 (expected in 2010) will be key to achieving consumer success.The growing popularity of Apple iPhone is making OS/X a more significant platform. Android is likely to dominate mobile Linux, but will take several years to mature.Action item: Widows Mobile users should prepare for significant changes in technology and business strategy as Windows Mobile becomes more consumer-oriented.

Strategic Planning Assumption: In 2010 Symbian will remain the dominant smartphone operating system shipping over 3 times the units of its nearest rival.




Basic handset services, e.g. voice, S

MS

, MM

SB

asic handset services, e.g. voice, SM

S, M

MS

B2E and B2C ArchitecturesWill Platforms Cease To Matter?

Quality of user experience

No. of

potential users

As platform-independent tools and thin client standards mature the need for platform-dependent applications will decrease through 2015.

Native handset platform

and GU

IN

ative handset platform and G

UI

BrowserBrowserXHTML/MPXHTML/MP

HTML/AJAXHTML/AJAX

Streaming/media tools, e.g. Flash Lite,

Silverlight

Streaming/media tools, e.g. Flash Lite,

Silverlight

Platform independent AD, e.g. Java ME, QtPlatform independent AD, e.g. Java ME, Qt

Corporate MAG/MEAPCorporate MAG/MEAP

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?In general mobile developers trade off two factors: audience size and quality of user experience. Simple technologies such as voice, SMS and MMS work on a very large range of handsets but deliver unsophisticated experiences. The mobile Web is more sophisticated, but in 2009 there are no standards for Web applications to manage persistent data and access handset features such as the camera and GPS. These will likely emerge through 2010. Mobile widgets are even less standardized. Technologies such as Flash Lite and Silverlight deliver a sophisticated media experience but are proprietary and not available on all handsets. MAGs are well suited to corporate applications, especially those accessing back-end packages. Native applications deliver the most sophisticated experience, but target the smallest range of devices. Different applications and target devices need different technologies, so all will coexist through 2015. However the increasing sophistication of technologies such as the mobile Web means that the platform specific zone will shrink but will never disappear. Nokia's acquisition of Trolltech and the inclusion of Qt in Open Symbian will make this a more important platform independent tool.Action Item: Develop platform-specific applications when the quality of experience is paramount.

Tactical guideline: The need for platform-specific mobile applications will decrease through 2015 but will not disappear.




Compelling Consumer Services Remain Elusive in Mature Markets

Ring tonesTV/VideoBankingSearch

Mobile e-mail

0% 100%


Mobile e-mail

0% 100%


Mobile e-mail

0% 100%


Mobile e-mail

0% 100%


Mobile e-mail

0% 100%

North America Middle East and Africa

Latin America Asia/Pacific

Western Europe

Percentage of respondents using the service now or planning to use it during the next 12

months. Source: Gartner Global Survey

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?These charts illustrate a Gartner global survey of several thousand mobile subscribers who were asked which mobile services they had used during the past month or were planning to use during the next year.1. Communication services generate the most interest, including instant messaging and mobile e-mail. 2. In mature markets, few new services, such as video, banking and TV, are compelling. Most have under20% use and the number planning to use the service during the next 12 months is much smaller than thenumber using it. This suggests that most people who are interested in a service have alreadyexperimented with it.

3. Most mobile services are more interesting to subscribers in emerging markets than in mature markets,perhaps because of less Internet availability and the potential for mobile devices to provide services,such as banking, that subscribers don't yet have.

A key conclusion is that the major problem the mobile industry faces in mature markets is not delivering services, but discovering new services that subscribers actually want.Action Item: Operators and aspiring mobile ecosystem owners should offer incentives to developers to create new mobile services.

Market: The biggest challenge the mobile services market faces is not service delivery, but service innovation.

Strategic Planning Assumption: By year-end 2012, the number of mobile subscribers worldwide will exceed 5.5 billion.




The Network Operator's DilemmaFinding a New Service PortfolioNo change• Optimize current

business model• E.g. Cost cutting,

focus on retention.

No change• Optimize current

business model• E.g. Cost cutting,

focus on retention.

Horizontal expansion• Expand current portfolio• E.g. Network upgrades

such as LTE and 4G, Invest in emerging markets.

Horizontal expansion• Expand current portfolio• E.g. Network upgrades

such as LTE and 4G, Invest in emerging markets.

• Saturation in mature markets

• Falling margins• Regulatory pressure• Undifferentiated products

competing in "red oceans."• Broadband price competition

is stressing cell and backhaul capacity.

Vertical expansion• Tightly integrate with web 2.0

and mobile business 2.0. • E.g. Operate in new areas

such as advertising, music, services, payment, ...

Vertical expansion• Tightly integrate with web 2.0

and mobile business 2.0. • E.g. Operate in new areas

such as advertising, music, services, payment, ...

Diversification• Move into new "blue

Ocean" businesses.• E.g. cloud computing,

green IT.

Diversification• Move into new "blue

Ocean" businesses.• E.g. cloud computing,

green IT.

Increasing disruption,

opportunity, and risk.

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?Operators in mature markets face many challenges. There are few if any new subscribers, prices are under pressure, products are undifferentiated. Even successful new offerings such as wireless broadband are stressing network capacity. We believe operators — like other businesses — should expand their portfolio of offerings both horizontally and vertically to find new sources of revenue. Strategies include:Horizontal expansion. Expand the current service portfolio, for example by investing in emerging markets where there is still growth and rolling out new network technologies such as LTE.Vertical expansion. Become part of vertically integrated value chains in a Web 2.0 world. For example, take a part in delivering music, advertising, TV, m-payment. Diversification. Move into entirely new areas where there is little or no direct competition. For example cloud computing, green IT (perhaps selling communications as an alternative to travel).An operator's new service portfolio is likely to contain all of these.

Strategic Imperative: Operators should aim for a portfolio of service innovation




Mobile Ecosystem Competition Q1 2009

Rich and innovative application

and service portfolio

Large customer base

Business support services

Technology support

Extensible Foundation services

Ecosystem profit potential

Agility/innovation

Developers andauthors need...

Customersneed...

Ecosystemowners need...

Apple

Nokia

Micros

oft

Operat

or

GoogleStronger

Weaker

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?There will be many ways to monetize mobility; however ecosystem owners will be in one of the strongest positions. An ecosystem consists of an interwoven group of customers, application developers, content and service providers, and a technology platform on which business propositions are built. No dominant ecosystems have yet emerged in the mobile space, although many organizations are fighting to become an ecosystem including Google, Nokia, Apple, RIM, Microsoft, Yahoo and some network operators such as Vodafone. By 2015 we expect that around three dominant ecosystems will have emerged.A successful ecosystem will satisfy the needs of all three participant roles: developers, customers and the ecosystem owner. Nokia for example has a large customer base and provides excellent developer support, but has few open and extensible services. However we do expect that some Ovi services will become more open in 2009. The Apple app store provides good business support, but the total number of users is relatively small in mobile terms. Google has excellent foundation services such as search, Street View, Earth and Maps but very few Android users to buy applications. Microsoft is working to improve the Windows Mobile ecosystem, its developer technology support is strong but business support is weaker.

Market: Owning an ecosystem will be one of the most valuable roles in the mobile application and services marketplace.




Mobile Business 2.0 Opportunities

Awareness Informationsearch

Evaluation Post-purchase

Purchase

Mobile Business in 2009 - 2010• Concentrate on those steps in your business process where mobility adds value• Understand your customers

• Focus on the demographics who are likely to try mobile solutions• Understand what devices and habits they have

• Breadth/simplicity will be more effective than depth/complexity

Opportunity (not to scale)

Key Issue: What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2012?There are many views of business transactions; a simple five-step model illustrates some of the ways in which mobile and wireless technology can support business activities. In 2008, mobile business is a tiny proportion of all commerce; most mobile business is concerned with simple activities, such as advertising or purchasing ring tones and media. Opportunities include:Awareness: Many opportunities, especially in areas such as mobile marketing and advertisingInformation search: Many opportunities, such as finding products, services and shops.Evaluation: More limited opportunities (perhaps price comparison, for example)Purchase: Limited in Western Europe and the U.S., where mobile payment has little tractionPost-purchase: Some opportunities for services, product consumption or support, long-term opportunities for telemetry, and "smart products" (for example, in the auto industry).The rectangles indicate the likely opportunity and suggest where organizations should focus their effort.

Tactical Guideline: In the short term, concentrate on finding the steps in a multichannel business process where mobile adds the most value, rather than trying to create new "mobile-only" business propositions.




Key Issues






Corporate Mobility in a Recession

Risk

E.g. improved mobile cost management

E.g. 3G data cards, mobile e-mail

E.g. improved mobile cost management

E.g. 3G data cards, mobile e-mail

Redefine business

using mobility

E.g. role specific mobile apps such as FFA

Rew

ard

Risk

• High risk in a recession• Customers may be unwilling to

accept major business changes.

• Good ROI, even in a recession• Look for low/zero capex funding

models such as SaaS.• Be aware of increased vendor risk

• Cost optimization opportunities• Suppliers may be open to

negotiation.

• Low cost, modest ROI• Link to other corporate initiatives

such as remote working, disaster recovery.

In the cost-constrained environment we expect during 2009 organizations are likely to be cautious, and reluctant to spend large amounts of new capital. So from a mobile perspective:"Run the business" mobility such as voice, wireless connectivity in laptops and mobile e-mail will continue albeit with a strong focus on cost control. for example, consolidating cellular contracts, exploring telecomms expense management solutions, perhaps delivering more functions on employees own devices. Some investments such as wider mobile e-mail deployment may be deferred."Grow the business" mobility involves classic mobile applications, such as field force automation, sales force automation and logistics. These applications provide good ROI even in a recession, but finding capital expenditure may be a challenge so organizations may look for more creative funding solutions such as subscription pricing. Also, be cautious, some of the vendors operating in this space are small and may be vulnerable to a recession."Transform the business" mobility is usually a high risk/high return activity which will be an unattractive investment for most organizations in a recession.

Key Issue: How will corporations choose and use mobility to support customers and employees?




Mobile Work and Teleworking

• Demand from Employees• Job functions require mobility• Pressure for cost reduction• Environmental concerns• ConsumerizationPercentage of officially sanctioned remote

workers in the workforce. Gartner survey 2008

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Germany

France

UK

USA

Mobile applicationsMobile applications

Mobile devices, corporate and personal

Mobile devices, corporate and personal

In-home wireless, home

VoIP

In-home wireless, home

VoIPManagement and metricsManagement and metrics

Unofficial remote work and teleworking

Unofficial remote work and teleworking

SecuritySecurity

IT SupportIT SupportPolicies and HRPolicies and HR

Over 80% organizations have remote workers

Cellular contractsCellular contracts

Legal issuesLegal issues

Key Issue: How will corporations choose and use mobility to support customers and employees?Remote workers include both mobile workers and teleworkers. Between 84% and 95% of the organizations surveyed by Gartner in the U.S., the U.K., France and Germany had a remote workforce, so although the total proportion of remote workers is still small it is an issue which affects most organizations. Note also that most organizations will also have some level of unofficial or unsanctioned remote workers, for example, staff using home technology or personal mobile devices for work purposes. Mobile application deployments such as sales or field engineering systems create more remote workers, and as such demand new policies and management techniques. It's important to have formal policies and strategies for remote working because it raises a large number of personnel, process, management and technology issues.

Tactical guideline: Establish formal policies for teleworkers, mobile workers and informal home workers.




Mobile Security• Handheld devices will be the next

major source of data breaches.• Secure wireless e-mail using

encryption, management, device wipe, ...

• Eliminate obsolete security, e.g. WEP.

• Manage devices and configurations.

• Beware of a new generation of wireless enabled devices.

• Top causes of security breaches will be: loss of device and misconfiguration.

• Rethink perimeter-based security strategies to accommodate employee-owned devices.

VPNVPNIntrusion detectionIntrusion detection

Manage configuration,Encryption,Authentication,Lock and wipe,Strong passwords.

Manage configuration,Encryption,Authentication,Lock and wipe,Strong passwords.

BackupBackup

Key Issue: How will corporations choose and use mobility to support customers and employees?As technologies such as mobile e-mail proliferate the amount of enterprise data on handheld devices grows as does the risk of security breaches and data loss. The cost of recovering from a security failure is usually far greater than the cost of prevention. For example In 2007, the U.K. Financial Services Authority fined a bank £980,000 for the loss of a laptop that contained "confidential customer data" on 11 million customers.Key strategies include managing configurations, encrypting data at rest, strong passwords, device lock and wipe, VPNs and Wi-Fi intrusion detection. Device backup is also important in the event a device is lost or has to be wiped. The four tests of a good security strategy are: consistency, minimizing exposure (for example, through thin client applications), commitment and reasonableness. However personal devices are increasingly being used to access corporate data. These cannot be managed and encrypted in the same way as corporate handhelds. Safe use of these implies both new access mechanisms like thin client and a move away from traditional perimeter security models to authentication and security associated with individual applications.

Strategic imperative: Implement mobile data protection for all mobile devices: notebook computers, PDAs, smartphones and removable media.

Tactical guideline: Rethink perimeter-based security strategies on the assumption that there will be an increasing number of non-corporate devices attached to the network.




Integrate Wireless Devices Into Communication/Collaboration Strategy

Rich information sharing

Business process integration

Conferencing

Presence

Messaging (e-mail, IM, SMS)

Voice

Wireless Voice(wireless VoIP, FMC/FMS, cellular/PBX integration), single number

Wireless Voice(wireless VoIP, FMC/FMS, cellular/PBX integration), single number

Unified Communications(voice + messaging + presence + conferencing)Unified Communications(voice + messaging + presence + conferencing)

Collaboration(coordination, decision making, working, socializing)Collaboration(coordination, decision making, working, socializing)

Communication-Enabled Business Processes (CEBP)Communication-Enabled Business Processes (CEBP)

file and image sharing, social networks

presence- and voice-enabled apps.

videoconference, video calling

status and location

text and image messages

cellular or IP voice, voice mail

Key Issue: How will corporations choose and use mobility to support customers and employees?Many organizations have four communications initiatives under way: IP voice, unified communications, communication-enabled business processes and collaboration. These are inter-related and all demand a strategy that defines the role of wireless devices, networks, mobile applications and mobile services. This must be considered across all initiatives, not addressed separately in each. Wireless voice addresses mobile to IP PBX integration, one-number solutions, handoff between Wi-Fi and cellular calls, fixed-to-mobile convergence, and substitution.Messaging includes wireless e-mail, IM, MMS and SMS. IM will grow substantially through 2014. Presence extends corporate presence to mobile devices, and mobile location to corporate presence. Conferencing includes voice, video and Web conferencing, some of which can be on mobile devices.Business process integration involves communication-enabled business applications, such as ERP.Rich information sharing uses new mobile tools. such as "moblogs," picture sharing, file and document sharing, location-based communities, social networks.Action Item: Define the role of mobility and wireless across all corporate communications initiatives.

Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2010, communications will be provided from within major enterprise IT applications (e-commerce, CRM, ERP, HR packages).

By 2014 mobile IM will be used regularly by more than 50% of wireless subscribers in North America and Western Europe.




Corporate Mobile Device and Platform Trends

2" - 3" 3.5" - 5" 7" - 8" 10" upward

Messaging, Web snacking

Web browsing

Task specific apps, light editing

Productivity apps, full editing

Windows CompatibilityNon-Windows

• Embedded 3G becomes viable• Ultra-low-cost mini-notebooks remain

consumer devices.• Solid-state disks (75 cents per Gb by

2011).

Corporate

Appliance

Consumer

Key Issue: How will corporations choose and use mobility to support customers and employees?One of the most important constraints on what a device can be used for is its screen size. Small screens (around 2 inches) such as are found on handsets are suitable for simple messaging and Web snacking but not well suited to extended Web browsing or watching video for long periods, for example.The minimum screen size for extended Web browsing or comfortable video is around 3.5 inches, illustrated by devices such as iPhone, iPod touch or small Web tablets such as the Nokia N810.Although it's possible to run Vista on very small devices most users find that 7 to 8 inches is the minimum. Users with weaker eyes or users creating complex content creation will need a minimum of 10 inches. Windows Mobile will dominate corporate application platforms with RIM as an alternate choice. Appliance level tasks (for example browsing or mobile e-mail) are achievable on Apple OS/X and Nokia S60. The various Linux-based systems including Android will remain consumer platforms for several years. On mobile Windows devices like laptops key trends include the increasing viability of embedded 3G and the falling cost of robust solid state disks.

Tactical Guideline: Through 2013, Windows Mobile will remain the dominant operating system for development of corporate client-side vertical applications.




Control Costs With Managed Diversity

Device Choice

ApplicationChoice

Constrained Unconstrained

Constrained

Unconstrained

Platform"I will build applications if you accept constrained device choices"

Appliance"I will give you device choices if you accept constrained applications"

Concierge"I will doanything for money"

Increasin

g cost

$2.9K$2.9K

$2.3K$2.3K

$4.5K$4.5K

$x$x = Generic TCO example

Key Issue: How will corporations choose and use mobility to support customers and employees?Mobile devices cannot be managed like PCs, it's impossible for most organizations to mandate a very small range of devices for all employees. The organization must be prepared to support a sufficient number of devices to satisfy employees, too few is as bad as too many. Costs can be controlled by defining three classes of support:Platform. This support level is usually applied to devices which need a significant application portfolio. By standardizing on a single platform such as Windows Mobile the organization can develop and support applications, at a cost of supporting a smaller number of device types. Appliance. This support level allows a wider range of devices, but at the cost of a smaller range of services and applications. For example, if the organization allowed only mobile e-mail and PIM then it might be possible to support both Windows Mobile and Nokia E and N series devices at an acceptable cost. Concierge. When special cases arise, such as the CEO who demands an iPhone then special case "concierge" support is required. This is acceptable as long as he or she pays the full cost.

Strategic Imperative: Apply the principles of managed diversity to mobile devices.




Business Imperative Action Plan Today

• Concentrate on "grow the business" mobile applications delivering fast ROI

• Identify cost reduction opportunities for "run the business" mobile services such as cellular voice/data and mobile e-mail.

• Establish architectures, standards and tools to enable mobile application deployment and innovation by business and the IT organization.

During the Next 12 Months• Encrypt data on mobile devices, it's less expensive than cleaning up after

data loss.

• Develop/refine your mobile work/teleworking strategy

• Use managed diversity principles to control costs

Long Term• Identify post-recession mobile opportunities, for example involving context

and business transformation.


MobileWorld 2009

March 5, 2009

Kista Science Tower

Kista, Sweden

Leif-Olof Wallin


Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected]. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

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