The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission

September 13, 2003

Adequacy of school facilities

Housing

Managing growthin Montgomery County

Presentation Outline

• What are the trends affecting school enrollment and classroom capacity?

• How does the AGP test the adequacy of public school facilities?

• What are the trends in housing, including affordable housing?

What are the trends affecting school enrollment and

classroom capacity?

Factors affecting school enrollment

• Enrollment September 2002: 138,891

• Overlapping factors: • Births:

• Aging through:

• Migration (moving into both new and existing housing)

• Overall: new development is responsible for about 20% of enrollment growth.

County births reach all-time high in 2002

13154

12466

12733

1314913055

123691243212194 12203 12185

1181211847

12251

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Montgomery County Resident Births

3 One child born every 40 minutes

3,491

2,8372,652

2,059

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

MCPS enrollment change from prior year

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MCPS Grades K-5 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08

Grades K-5 enrollment begins increasing again in 3 years

33,146

59,112 61, 800

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MCPS Grades 6-8 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08

Grades 6 –8 enrollment reaches plateau over next six years

30,40730,112

7

18,661

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,000

44,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MCPS Grades 9 - 12 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08

Grades 9 - 12 enrollment increases for most of six year forecast

39,306 42,121

26,777

Total enrollment continues to increase over next six years

MCPS Total EnrollmentIncluding Pre-K and Special Education

Actual 1980-2002 and Projected 2003-08

84,000

94,000

104,000

114,000

124,000

134,000

144,000

154,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

91,030

138,891

144,801

8

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

Since 1983, MCPS enrollment growth exceeds 48,000

MCPS Enrollment by Race/ Ethnic Group, 1970 - 2002

HISPANIC

ASIAN-AMERICAN

AFRICAN-AMERICAN

WHITE

African-American, Asian-American & Hispanic populations increase

191191190189189185183181180178177175172170

159153153152163

0

50

100

150

200

250

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

MCPS Operates 191 Schools in 2003-04

Number of MCPS Operating Schools

200 208 202 210 237 290 352 381 387 437

61151 207

204

38

4641

41

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

Day Care/ Other

Class Size Reduction

Enrollment

Number of relocatables increases

MCPS - Number of Relocatables in Use, 2003-04 & Reason For Use Beginning in 2000-01

22 Increase due to enrollment growth & class size reductions

682

How does the current AGP test the adequacy of school

facilities?

Current school test

• Schools tested at 3 levels (elementary, middle, high) for every cluster.

• Compare future enrollment to future capacity (5 years from now).

• Capacity: kindergarten: 44 or 22; grades 1-5: 25; secondary grades: 22.5

• Cluster with enrollment over 100% of capacity: use capacity in adjacent clusters.

• Damascus cluster’s moratorium (FY2002) lifted due to new Clarksburg High School.

School test example

Quince Orchard Elementary Schools2008 Enrollment 2,9152008 Capacity 3,015Capacity Avail. 100

Watkins Mill Elementary Schools2008 Enrollment 3,1472008 Capacity 3,079Capacity Deficit 68

School test concerns

• When schools are over-crowded, the test shouldn’t say “adequate.”

• Are we using the best measures of enrollment and capacity?

• Using capacity from adjacent clusters is problematic.

• Need mechanism for development to pay toward school facilities.

Comparing enrollment & capacity

100%, No Borrowing“AGP Capacity”

100%, No Borrowing“MCPS Program Capacity”

Enrollment exceeds capacityEnrollment below capacity

Planning Board’s recommendation & the school test

• Individual development proposals are not subject to a school adequacy review.

• School adequacy taken into account in setting Preliminary Plan Approval Rate.

• Proposal benefits schools in two ways:

• Slows pace of residential development approvals

• Requires payment of development impact tax for schools at building permit.

• Endorsed by Board of Education

Planning Board’s proposed school impact tax rates

Residential (proposed)

Detached Town Garden Hi-Rise Senior MPDUs

$8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $1,600 $0 $0

Residential rates per unit; “Senior” means multi-family senior housing; “MPDU” means “moderately-priced dwelling unit” as defined by County law.

What are the trends in housing, including affordable housing?

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

7,500

8,50019

88

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

*

About 65,500 new units were built from 1988 through 2002

Townhouse and multi-family increased in 2002;2002 completions exceed prior 12 years

5,485

Source; M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Single-Family Detached

TownhouseMulti-family

Housing prices continue to rise

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,00019

87

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

1st

Hal

f 20

02

Median price of single-family home

Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Housing affordability shows slight decline.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

The higher the score, the more affordable thehousing is. A score of 1 means the monthly

cost of buying a home equals 28% of gross income.

Affordability index for existing single-family homes

Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Interest rate increases are a potential threat to affordability

gains in the past decade.

$0$50,000

$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,000$450,000$500,000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

*

2002 brings marked increase in most prices

Median PricesNew Single Family

New Townhouse

Existing Townhouse

2002 prices are for the first half of the year only.

Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Existing Single Family

Apartment vacancy rates riseEconomic downturn, new units reduce pressure

4.4% 4.2%3.7%

3.0%2.5%

1.8%

3.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source: Montgomery County Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs

Vacancy rate

Rents continue upward trend

$726

$871$928

$1,030$1,076

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Turnover rents (Unsubsidized)

Monthly rent, in dollars

Source: Montgomery County Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs

Summary

• School trends: the challenge will continue as enrollment increases and becomes more diverse.

• Current school test: Almost never imposes moratorium, but most enrollment growth is not due to new development

• Proposed school impact tax: Would provide a dedicated revenue source for 20% of CIP

• Housing: Demand is very high and most trends threaten affordability. One that doesn’t: more multi-family units are being built.