Montgomery County, Maryland - 2020 Economic Outlook

8/3/2019 Montgomery County, Maryland - 2020 Economic Outlook

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Montgomery County Council

Montgomery County, MarylandEconomic Outlook, 2020

November 8, 2011

Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor

Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy

George Mason University


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15 Largest Metro Areas

GRP Percent Change 2007-10

4

6

8

10

12%

-6

-4

-2

02

Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


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Job Change Since 200015 Largest Job Markets

100

200

300

400

500

000s)

-500-400

-300

-200

-100

(

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


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35%

40%

45%

50%

Share of Washington

Area Economy1970-2010

Northern Virginia

Suburban MD

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

D.C.


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2010 Structure of theGreater Washington Economy

Non-LocalBusiness

12.0 %

Other Federal

15.7 %

Local ServingActivities

36.6%

34.9% Procurement19.2%

Other: Health/Education, Media


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Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

40

6080

000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2009 2010 2011

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


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Job Change by Sector

Sept 2010 Sept 2011Washington MSA

2

3

012

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 8,500

1

0

-4-2

5

-4

-5

1

-

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

ManufacturingInformation

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.



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2010 Structure of the

Montgomery County Economy$69.5 billion (2010$)Non-Local Business

11.2 %

Other Federal

16.5%

Other LocalBusiness

42.2%

29.7% Procurement13.2%

Local

Hosp.3.8%

Total Local

Business 46.0%


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Annual Job Change

Suburban Maryland

30

40

5060

000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2009 2010 2011

-40

-30-20

-10

0

1020

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug



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Job Change by Sector

Sept 2010 Sept 2011Suburban Maryland

0

5

2-2

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total - 3,400

0

0

-10

0

0

-4

1

-

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

ManufacturingInformation

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.



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8

10

12

14

11.0 DC

9.1 U.S.

6.3 SMD

Unemployment Rate

0

2

4

6

6.1 MSA4.9 - NVA

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted


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Characteristics MC FX WMSA

Economic Growth* 87.3% 132.5% 99.5%

Job Growth 15.4% 57.5% 31.7%

Unemployment 1990 2.5% 2.0% 3.2%

Comparative Economic PerformanceMontgomery & Fairfax Counties, Washington Area: 1990-2010

. . .

Federal Spending, 1990 $5.8b $5.6b $42.6 b

Payroll, 1990 $1.9b $1.0b $17.1b

Procurement, 1990 $2.0b $3.1b $12.6b

Federal Spending, 2010 $20.7b $33.5b $169.0b

Payroll, 2010 $5.1b $3.3b $42.7b

Procurement, 2010 $9.2b $25.1b $81.2b

*gross county product


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Characteristics 1990 2010 % Change

Population 761,671 971,777 27.6

Montgomery CountyGrowth Trends: 1990-2010

e an ge . . .Dependency Ratio 1:2.23 1:1.75 - 21.5

Job Growth 403,812 465,963 15.4

Jobs/Person 5.3/10 4.8/10 - 9.4

GCP* $33.36b $62.49b 87.3

Average Salary (2010$s) $44,702 $67,161 50.2

*gross county product


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Sector Number of Jobs Percent

Professional and Bus. Services 109,035 23.4

Government 86,299 18.5

Education and Health Services 63,250 13.6

Subtotal 258,584 55.5

Retail Trade* 59,654 12.8

MC Employment Structure, 2010

Leisure and Hospitality 37,591 8.1Financial Services 32,623 7.0

Other Services 25,434 5.5

Construction 24,806 5.3Information Services 14,685 3.2

Manufacturing 12,585 2.7

Total 465,963 100.0*includes transportation and utilities


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Metric 2020 Increase Percent

Gross Regional Product $577.5 b $152.5 b 35.9

Metro Area Job Growth 4.292 m 503.1k 13.3

Replacement Job Openings 901.4k 23.8

MC Gross County Product $94.0 b $24.5 b 35.2

Economic Forecast, 2010-2020

MC Job Growth 565,133 92,514 19.6

Prof. & Bus. Services 140,826 31,791 29.2

Education and Health Ser. 81,799 18,549 29.3

Subtotal* 222,625 50,340Other Major Sectors** 183,938 29,264 18.9

*37% of job base projected to generate 55.7% of Montgomery Countys new jobs.**retail trade, financial services, leisure and hospitality services, construction


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2020 Structure of the

Montgomery County Economy$94.0 billion (2010$)Non-Local Business

17.3 %

Federal Procurement

Other Federal

13.4%

Other LocalBusiness

38.4%

. .

LocalHosp.

4.5%

Total Local

Business 43.9%


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Having a sufficient supply and quality of labor tosupport future job growth;

Having sufficient housing resourcesinnumber, variety of types, and range of costs

Challenges Facing Montgomery County

Increasing share of the countys workforcethereby reducing the economys dependenceon commuters to fill the countys jobs; and,

Being competitive with other area jurisdictionsin terms of location and operating costs and

business friendly reputation.


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Income Single-family Multi-family Total Percent

Less than $50K 3,897 12,846 16,743 41.8

Housing Montgomery CountysFuture Workforce, Low Forecast

$50K - $100K 5,317 10,986 16,303 40.7$100K -$150K 3,497 2,327 5,824 14.6

$150K + 990 150 1,140 2.9

Total Housing Units 13,701 26,309 40,010 100.0

COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,500


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Income Single-family Multi-family Total Percent

Less than $50K 5,995 19,762 25,757 41.8

-

Housing Montgomery CountysFuture Workforce, High Forecast

, , , .

$100K -$150K 5,379 3,580 8,959 14.6

$150K + 1,523 230 1,753 2.8

Total Housing Units 21,077 40,474 61,551 100.0

COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,500


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cra.gmu.edu

GMU/Cardinal Bank 20t AnnualEconomic Forecasting Conference

Tysons Ritz CarltonJanuary 13, 2012

Montgomery County, Maryland - 2020 Economic Outlook

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