WebinarThe IPCC’s 1.5°C Report: Critical opportunities for social science to shape the future

Opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this webinar are those of the contributors; the ISSC and its partners in the Transformations to Sustainability Programme accept no liability in this regard.

Monday, 31 October 2016

AgendaSetting the context – the scoping process and outcomes – Susi Moser (moderator)

The forthcoming 1.5°C Report – contributions and progress to date

- Petra Tschakert - Frank Geels - Ioan Fazey - Bronwyn Hayward

Q&A and panel discussion about how the social sciences can contribute to the IPCC process and the literature on 1.5°C

The next steps in the process and how to contribute – Susi Moser

www.worldsocialscience.org

The IPCC’s 1.5°C Report: Critical opportunities for social

science to shape the future

Overview of the process to date

Susi Moser, Ph.D.ISSC Senior Advisor,

Transformations to Sustainability Programme

IPCC SSC Member

The Path to the Special Report on 1.5°C

The Paris Agreement

The Path to the Special Report on 1.5 °C

43rd Session of the IPCC11-13 April 2016Nairobi, Kenya

Accepted the invitation to prepare a Special Report on 1.5°C

• SSC (WG I, II, III; TFI) + social, human science representation

Photos: IISD/ENB

Members of the SSC

S. MOSERISSC

P. ZHAICO-CHAIR WG I

V. MASSON-DELMOTTECO-CHAIR WG I

M.-H. PARIZEAUCOMEST

H. PÖRTNERCO-CHAIR WG II

D. ROBERTSCO-CHAIR WG II

Photos: IISD/ENB, M. Stafford-Smith, Université Laval

Agreed short report title:

“Global warming of 1.5°C”

The Path to the Special Report on 1.5 °C

43rd Session of the IPCC11-13 April 2016Nairobi, Kenya

Accepted the invitation to prepare a Special Report on 1.5°C

44th Session of the IPCC17-20 October 2016Bangkok, Thailand

Revised and approved the outline forthe a Special Report on 1.5°C

IPCC 1.5 SR Scoping Meeting15-18 August 2016Geneva, Switzerland

• SSC (WG I, II, III; TFI) + social, human science rep

• Nominations for scoping mtg and expert selection

• Questionnaire• Background paper• Scoping meeting agendaPhotos: IISD/ENB, WMO

Intense negotiations in Bangkok• Availability of relevant literature• Inclusion of a chapter on

sustainability; equity and ethics• Negative emissions/geoengineering• Differentiation of Chapters 4

(intervention opportunities) and 5 (implementation options)

Photos: IISD/ENB

Comparison of Outlines Expert-agreed Outline - Geneva• Front Matter (2 pages)• Summary for Policy Makers (15-20 pages)• Chapter 1: Framing and context (15 pages)• Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C

in the context of sustainable development (40 pages)• Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural

and human systems (60 pages)• Chapter 4: Strengthening the global response to the

threat of climate change (40 pages)• Chapter 5: Approaches to implementing a

strengthened global response to the threat of climate change (20 pages)

• Chapter 6: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities (40 pages)

• Up to 10 boxes - integrated case studies/regional and cross-cutting themes (20 pages)

• FAQs (10 pages)

Approved Outline by IPCC - Bangkok• Front Matter (2 pages) • Summary for Policy Makers (up to 10 pages, incl.

headline statements, tables, figures) • Chapter 1: Framing and context (15 pages) • Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with

1.5°C in the context of sustainable development (40 pages)

• Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems (60 pages)

• Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change (50 pages)

• Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities (20 pages)

• Boxes - integrated case studies/regional and cross-cutting themes (up to 20 pages)

• FAQs (10 pages)

The Path Forward

Photos: IPCC

Frank GeelsProfessor of System Innovation and Sustainability, Sustainable Consumption Institute

University of Manchester

Ioan FazeyChair of Social Dimensions of Environmental Change

University of Dundee

Bronwyn HaywardDirector of the Sustainable Citizenship and Civic Imagination Program

University of Canterbury

Petra TschakertProfessor at the School of Earth and Environment

University of Western Australia

Q&A and Panel Discussion

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Opportunities to Contributeto the 1.5°C Report

• Respond to the call for authors from your country’s focal point for the IPCC• If nominated and selected, be an active author• Elicit help from colleagues to cover necessary expertise

• Publish relevant research, fast!• Make explicit reference to 1.5°C• Look out for various Special Issue opportunities

on 1.5°C (e.g., COSUST, Elementa)• Look out for near-term funding opportunities

(e.g., ClimateWorks Foundation, NORFACE, Belmont Forum)

• Respond to calls for expert review of IPCC report drafts

• Learn more and follow developments at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

Submit for publication by Oct 2017 to be included in the SOD.Must be accepted by April 2018

to be included in the Final Draft

Thank youtransformations@worldsocialscience.org

Opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this webinar are those of the contributors; the ISSC and its partners in the Transformations to Sustainability Programme accept no liability in this regard.

AppendixDetailed comparison of the Scoping Meeting-approved outline and the IPCC-approved outline of the Special Report on 1.5°C

Front matterScoping Mtg Outline

• IPCC context• Building on AR5• Assessing literature since AR5• Reports to come in this cycle

• Context of UNFCCC invitation• Specificity of this report within the cycle

(integration, systems- and solutions-based approach, near-term)

• Laying the foundations for the Special Report in the context of strengthening the global response to climate change, sustainable development and poverty eradication

IPCC-approved Outline

• IPCC context o Building on AR5 o Assessing literature since AR5 o Reports to come in this cycle

• Context of UNFCCC invitation • Specificity of this report within the cycle (integration, systems- and solutions-based approach, near-term) • Laying the foundations for the Special Report in the context of strengthening the global response to climate change, sustainable development and poverty eradication

Chapter 1: Framing and Context Scoping Mtg Outline• Understanding 1.5°C; reference levels,

probability, transience, overshoot, stabilization• 1.5°C in the context of strengthening the global

response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, with consideration for ethics and equity

• Key concepts central to understanding the report• Building on AR5: new information, integrative

approaches, response options: opportunities and challenges

• Assessment and methodologies across spatial and time scales and treatment of uncertainty

• Storyline of the report

IPCC-approved Outline• Understanding 1.5°C; reference levels,

probability, transience, overshoot, stabilization • 1.5°C in the context of strengthening the global

response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, with consideration for ethics and equity

• Key concepts central to understanding the report • Building on AR5: new information, integrative

approaches, response options • Assessment and methodologies across spatial

and time scales • Treatment of uncertainty • Storyline of the report

Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development Scoping Mtg Outline• Methods of assessment and assumptions in

the literature• Constraints on and uncertainties in global

greenhouse gas emissions and other climate drivers for limiting warming to 1.5°C

• Characteristics of mitigation and development pathways compatible with 1.5°C, compared to 2°C and higher as relevant, including short and long term, sectorial, regional, demand/supply-side; technological and socio-economic implications etc.

• Technological, environmental, institutional and socio-economic opportunities and challenges related to 1.5°C pathways

IPCC-approved Outline• Methods of assessment and assumptions in the

literature • Constraints on, and uncertainties in, global

greenhouse gas emissions consistent with warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C, considering short lived and other climate drivers and taking into account uncertainty in climate sensitivity

• Characteristics of mitigation and development pathways compatible with 1.5°C compared with 2°C and, where warranted by the literature, comparison with higher levels of warming. This may include short and long term timeframes, sectorial, regional, demand/supply-side, technological and socio-economic implications

• Technological, environmental, institutional and socio-economic opportunities and challenges related to 1.5°C pathways

Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems Scoping Mtg Outline• Methods of assessment

• Observed and attributable global and regional climate changes and impacts and the adaptation experience

• Key global and regional climate changes, vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, including adaptation potential and limits

• Avoided impacts and reduced risks at 1.5°C compared to 2°C and higher as relevant

• Timeframe, slow vs. fast onset, irreversibility and tipping points

• Implications of different mitigation pathways for reaching 1.5°C, including potential overshoot, for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

IPCC-approved Outline• Methods of assessment • Observed and attributable global and regional climate

changes and impacts and the adaptation experience • Key global and regional climate changes, vulnerabilities,

impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, taking into account adaptation potential and limits to adaptive capacity

• Key sectoral vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, taking into account adaptation potential, limits to adaptive capacity and socio-economic aspects

• Avoided impacts and reduced risks at 1.5°C compared with 2°C and, where warranted by the literature, comparison with higher levels of warming

• Timeframe, slow vs. fast onset, irreversibility and tipping points

• Implications for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of different mitigation pathways reaching 1.5°C, including potential overshoot

Chapter 4: Strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change (original title)Scoping Mtg Outline• Assessing current and emerging adaptation and

mitigation options and associated opportunities and challenges

• The pace of the development and deployment of mitigation and adaptation options compared to pathways consistent with sustainable development and 1.5 C

• The potential and capacity for development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation responses to accelerate transitions and strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change within and across relevant scales and systems

• Challenges to and opportunities from strengthened response options (e.g. current & future lock in, adaptive mitigation, consumption and production, negative emissions, food production, socio-economic); synergies and trade-offs among adaptation & mitigation options

IPCC-approved Outline• Assessing current and emerging adaptation and

mitigation options, including negative emission methodologies, and associated opportunities and challenges

• Synergies, trade-offs and integration of adaptation and mitigation options

• The pace of the development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation options compared to pathways consistent with sustainable development and 1.5°C

• The potential and capacity limitations for development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation responses to accelerate transitions within and across scales and systems (e.g. food production, cities)

(cont.)

Chapter 5: Approaches to implementing a strengthened global response to the threat of climate change (original title)

Scoping Mtg Outline• Existing policies, institutions and

actions• Options for implementing far-reaching

and rapid change; implications, challenges, enabling environment; levels; and integration of action• Case studies for implementation at all

scales and in different circumstances, and lessons learned

IPCC-approved Outline (cont.)

• Options for implementing far-reaching and rapid change; implications, challenges (e.g. lock in, spillover effects), enabling environments and across scales • Case studies for implementation of

adaptation and mitigation options at different scales and circumstances, and lessons learned

New title for combined chapter

Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change

Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication, and reducing inequalities Scoping Mtg Outline• Linkages between achieving SDGs and 1.5°C• Equity and ethical dimensions• Opportunities, challenges, risks, and trade-offs• Positive and negative impacts of adaptation

and mitigation measures including response measures and strategies, economic diversification, livelihoods, food security, cities, ecosystems, technologies

• Knowledge and experience from local to global, including case studies and integrated planning as relevant to aforementioned bullets

• Climate-resilient development pathways

IPCC-approved Outline• Linkages between achieving SDGs and 1.5°C • Distributional impacts arising from response

options • Opportunities, challenges, risks, and trade-offs • Positive and negative impacts of adaptation and

mitigation measures including response measures and strategies, economic diversification, livelihoods, food security, cities, ecosystems, technologies

• Knowledge and experience from local to global, including case studies and integrated planning as relevant to aforementioned bullets

• Climate-resilient development pathways