ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

The Impact of the Promotion of Row Planting on Farmers’ Teff Yield in Ethiopia

IFPRI-ESSPII EDRI

December 13, 2013 Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa

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Joachim Vandercasteelen, Mekdim Dereje, Bart Minten, and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse

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Structure of Presentation

Introduction

Set up of the experiment

Estimation strategy

Results

Conclusion

Policy recommendation

Introduction

Teff is Ethiopia’s most important staple crop in terms of both

production and consumption.

Despite its importance, its yield is remarkably low.

There are several reasons for this; one of the major reasons is

the way farmers are sowing teff.

Reduced seed technologies particularly row planting and

transplanting suggested to improve the productivity of teff.

Introduction, cont’d• New technologies are presumed to be yield

increasing because: 1/ Reduce competition; 2/ Ease weeding; 3/ Lower damage during harvest

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Introduction, cont’d

Objective of the study: Measure the impact of the promotion of improved sowing technologies (especially row planting) on land productivity.

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Set up of the experiment Design in line with ATA/MoA program, but modifications:

10 AGP woredas were randomly selected in Oromia 4 FTCs were selected in each woreda (40 FTC in total) In each FTC, 25 farmers were selected (1,000 farmers): 10

controls; 10 row planters, 5 transplanting At FTC level, experiments on 10 plots conducted by DA

Set-up: Farmers are randomly assigned to different treatment

groups (control/transplanting/row planting) All famers (control and treated) received same modern

inputs (fertilizer and improved seed for free)

Set up of the experiment, cont’d

In total, 3 surveys were conducted:

1. Baseline survey (October 2012)

2. Crop cut (November-December 2012/January 2013)

3. Impact survey (February 2013)

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Set up of the experiment, cont’d

Problems with implementation: 1 woreda dropped out 25 farmers were not everywhere interviewed

(because of lack of transplanters, etc.) selection was not everywhere done randomly

Result: two samples of interest Full sample: both random and non-random

selected farmers984 farmers from 36 villages

Random sample537 farmers from 19 villages

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Estimation strategy

Outcome of interest

Yield from farmers plots

Yield declaration by farmers Yield measurements crop-cut Yield expectations farmers

Yield from FTC plots

Appropriate econometric methods employed for different samples and outcome variables

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Results Effect of row planting on yield measured by crop-cut actual

yield, crop-cut expected yield, and farmers’ declaration

Row planting has a positive - but moderate - effect on teff yield at the farm level

Table: Impact of row planting (compared to broadcasting) on yield (%) (*: statistically significant)

Crop-cut Yield

Crop-cut expected Yield

Declared Yield

Rowplanting 2 17** 12*Average (control)

(ton/ha) 1.1*** 1.3*** 1.2***

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FTC data In theory each of the 36 FTC rolled out 10 trials, but because of

implementation problems we have 331 trials.

The effect of row planting: increase of the average yield by 20 percent.

Higher estimates because treatment plots used more fertilizer, use less seed, and are weeded more

This is on top of better farm management by the Development Agents (DAs)

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Results, cont’d

Synthesis results:

Row planting has positive effect on yield

However, effects are not always significant

If significant, yield improvements – controlling for all other inputs - are between 12% and 17%.

On FTC plots, the impact goes as high as 22% We tried different specifications, but no significant

difference in results

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Conclusions

Both farmer samples as well as FTC data show that row

planting increases teff yields by between 10 and 20%

This increase is significant for yield declarations by farmers;

The effect is much smaller and not significant in crop-cut data

Even if yields do not improve that much, farmers that practice

row planting will still benefit because of lower seed rate.

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Conclusions This moderate increase in teff yield is in contrast with findings

from demonstration sites and research station trials as well as farmers’ declared expectations.

Possibly explained by implementation problems, non-optimal land management, and exaggerated optimism on the potential of row planting.

As the data is from the first year of roll-out, results can improve with learning over time.

Policy recommendation Most farmers are willing to continue using row planting but

only on small fraction of their teff lands. Low yield difference and continued practice of traditional

broadcasting implies that:– more studies have to be done to assess on-farm constraints– scaling-up new agricultural technologies on a large scale has

to proceed cautiously (allow for learning by farmers)– Study on labor productivity is crucial

One of the reasons for the gap in yield difference between FTC plots and the farmers is, inter alia, implementation problems. More needs to be done to improve outreach to farmers

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Thank you!