The impact of megatrends on Western governments(short version)

Frederic De MeyerInstitute for Future Insights

Agenda

1. What exactly is a megatrends?

2. How megatrends will affect Western governments?

3. Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)

4. Key questions

One hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...

An increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend

...in a nutshell...

A worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend

And the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends

my ‘rules of thumb’

• long-lasting

• amplifying

• cause disruptive shift

• have a global impact

• ... almost feel inevitable (not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby)

Megatrends on my watch list

Demographics/ cultural change1 Ageing population 100%2 Increasing world population 100%3 Generation Y/ Millennials 100%4 Urbanization 100%5 Geographical mobility 80%6 Multi-ethnic society 80%7 Gap rich-poor widens 80%

Sustainability8 Green technologies 100%9 Energy dependency, look for alternatives 100%

10 Scarcety of natural resources 95%11 Global Warming 90%12 Biodiversity 90%

Tech13 Pervasiveness of tech (ubiquitous) 95%14 Global Grid 95%15 Desintermediation 95%16 Crowdsourcing 95%17 Social Media 95%18 Augmented reality 95%19 Saas, DIY 95%20 Collaboration 95%21 Consumerization of IT 95%22 Cloud computing 95%23 3D 90%24 GRIN Techs 80%

(geo)Politics25 Shift to East 100%26 Globalization 3.0 95%27 More trade-blocks and monitary unions 95%28 More wealthy countries 95%29 Rising middle class 90%30 The Market State 80%31 Decline of Dollar 60%32 Global currency 20%

Consumer33 Consumer power 100%34 Mass Customization 100%35 Radical Transparancy 80%36 Individualization 80%37 Trading up 80%38 Less is more 70%39 Buy local 60%40 Gender Blending 40%41 Generation Blending 40%

Society42 Dematerialization (digitalization) 90%43 Tribalism 90%44 Talent gap/shortage 90%45 Boundary Blurring 90%46 Polarization ('have's and have not's) 90%47 Digital divide 80%48 Search for Meaning 60%49 Open source (free, collaborative, ...) 60%

Business50 Corporate citizenship 90%51 Social entrepreneurship 90%52 Decentralization 70%53 Partnering with competitors 50%54 Virtual company 40%

Frederic De Meyer, April 2011

Probability level Probability level

Agenda

1. What exactly is a megatrends?

2. How megatrends will affect Western governments?

3. Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)

4. Key questions

Megatrends impact on Public Sector

Geopolitics:Globalization 3.0

Technology:Pervasive Technology

Geopolitics:Global Grid

Technology:GRIN Technologies

Ensure livable megacities

Do work differently or do different work?

Demographics:Urbanization

New investments, reduce threat

Who owns the data?

Efficient health care provisioning; who

will take lead?

Environment:Energy dependency

Geopolitics:Rising power of East

Decline of the West?

Geopolitics:Market State

Crowdsourcing, open

innovation, ...

Demographics: Global mobility

Push Global decentralized

enterprise

Talent gap; new wave of immigration

Governments new Partners

Demographics: GenY

Environment:Global Warming

Demographics: Ageing Population

New educationActive monitoring;

reduce threat

Agenda

1. What exactly is a megatrends?

2. How megatrends will affect Western governments?

3. Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)

4. Key questions

Globalization 3.0, new investors or new competitors?

Challenges to governments:

• Less locally owned companies => where will profits go? Where will decision centers move?• The war for natural resources might impoverish Western countries• Declining economic weight => turning irrelevant on global scene?

Opportunities for governments:

• Solution for ailing businesses (~ Volvo);• new partnerships.

Ageing population & GenY will fundamentally alter societal balances

Challenges to governments:

• Ageing population will put strain on labor market, how to solve talent gap for Public Sector (outsourcing, insourcing foreigners, crowdsourcing, flexible working for elderly, …)?• While GenY is in favor of working for the Public Sector, they are demanding specific working environment, are public insitutions prepared?• How to deal with brain drain of GenY moving to higher growth countries?

Opportunities for governments:

• Making work at public sector more ‘sexy’ (GenY is aware of social role);• Introducing new business models of public service delivery.

SOURCE: Ramon Costa www.pgpsi.com

The global grid, Crowdsourcing and peer-to-peer services (desintermediation) will shift paradigms

Peer to peer lending eating away market share of banks

Fan Funding makes music production more profitable

(for musician, fans and company)

Challenges to governments:

• How to tax and keep track of new ways of earning (and spending) money (ex crowdsourcing tasks paid through Paypal or Facebook-credits and used to spend on virtual items)?• Macro-economic impact (GDP overall might decrease, but wouldn’t be dramatic?);• New competitors/alternatives in delivering public services;

Opportunities for governments:

• New economic dynamism, innovation triggers, increasing country attractiveness and competitiveness;• Using crowdsourcing for internal means could increase efficiency and quality of public service.

Social networks offer limitless possibilities to build reputations and offer new services

Facebook relationships map:

Challenges to governments:

• New ways of organizing society, governments become irrelevant?

Opportunities for governments:

• New economic dynamism, innovation triggers new services developments by governments (aps)?• Reputation management, opportunity to attract new key talents.

Climate change and energy dependencies will require new ways of government

Challenges to governments:

• Might become the most crucial (if not the only) agenda point for future governments;• Balance choices of investments both internally and in the economy;• Find alternatives for energy dependency from unstable countries;• Find budgets for investments;• TIMING !

Opportunities for governments:

• New economic impulse;• Become leader in developing, innovating and export of sustainability projects;• Innovating public services;• Cost and risk controll (energy dependency).

www.lowtechmagazine.com

www.businessinsider.com

Agenda

1. What exactly is a megatrends?

2. How megatrends will affect Western governments?

3. Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)

4. Key questions

how to deal with megatrends in your public service?

Can we improve internal efficiency with crowdsourcing?

What is our

position vs

the Market

State?

Should we

partner

with private

sector?

Notes:

How should we react to increasing investments from emerging countries? Can we turn this into our benefit?

DO we have

a roadmap to

become

sustainabilit

y innovation

leader?

How Can we benefit from the rising middle class in the emerging countries?

What is the

impact of

global grid on

our economy?

Should we

fear or embrace it?

Are we dependent on key skills that might become scarce in the future? How to fill the gap with GenY or ageing workers?

Will new business models create alternatives for public services? Will we become obsolete or should we be pro-active?

How should we use Social

Networks to increase reputation

and attract top talents?

frederic de meyerfounder

the institute for future insights

-helping you anticipate the future-

Keynote speech at the start of your strategic planning session - or your industry event;Eye opening workshops for internal planning purposes;Discussions on ways to innovate for the future;

Contact:

ifi.frederic@gmail.com(BE)+32 471 63 95 35www.fredericdemeyer.comtwitter: @fdemeyerget in touch on Linkedin