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  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    The future of solar electricity (Photovoltaics)

    Stanislaw M. PIETRUSZKOStanislaw M. PIETRUSZKO

    Centre for PhotovoltaicsCentre for Photovoltaics

    Warsaw University of TechnologyWarsaw University of Technology

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Responsible energy policy for the future

    Renewable energy sources with an efficient and rational use of energy are capable of:

    • preserving resources,

    • ensuring security and diversity of energy supply,

    • providing energy services, virtually without any environmental impact.

    RES are well distributed and decentralised.

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Why Photovoltaics?

    • Direct conversion of sunlight to electricity

    • No pollution

    • No noise

    • Wide range of applications (off- and on grid, BIPV)

    • Modularity

    • Helpful in disasters

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    2008 – 85%

    2007 – 70%

    2006 – 40%

    2005 – 45%

    2004 – 60%

    2003 - 32%

    2002 - 44%

    2001 - 36%

    2000 - 43%

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    World Cell Production Shares per region (MW)

    in 2008 (2007)

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    TOP PV markets 2006-2008

    Updated 24 April 2009, Source: 2008: EPIA/BSW/national PV associations, 2006: Eurobserver, IEA-PVPS

    Total market volume: 2006: 1 600 MWp 2007: 2 400 MWp 2008: 5 500 MWp

    1100 1500

    MWp

    New installed 2006

    New installed 2007

    New installed 2008

    2511

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    PV Market Drivers • National Programs

    • Technological development

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    The four main technology routes

    9

    Crystalline Silicon (wafer based)

    New Concepts III – V compounds

    (GaAs)

    Thin Film

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Classification of Solar Cell types

    Silicon

    Compound Semiconductors

    Other Concepts

    Solar Cell

    others

    organic structures

    Dye sensitised

    III - V group GaAs, InP, etc.

    Chalcogenides

    GaAs

    InP

    others

    crystalline

    amorphous + µc

    other Chalcopyrites

    single crystalline

    multi crystalline

    Si thin film

    CIS

    CdTe

    its form / (crystalline-) structureby basic material and

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Best cell Efficiencies

    Source: NREL Note: This graph does not include the 40.8% multijunction concentrator cell confirmed in 2008, nor the re-evaluated CIGS cell at

    20% (September, 2008).

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS

    • offoff--grid domesticgrid domestic

    •• offoff--grid nongrid non--domesticdomestic

    •• onon--grid distributedgrid distributed

    •• onon--grid centralised (grid centralised (>100 kW)

    • consumer applications

    • space applications

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Off-grid domestic

    2 bln people without electricity

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Off-grid non domestic

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    On-grid distributed

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    BIPV

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    BIPV

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    BIPV - colored solar cell

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    On-grid centralised

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Space applications

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Customer Needs

    on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency

    €/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W

    Source: Fraunhofer ISE

    €/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Energy pay-back time (NL): status and near-future development

    Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVS EC21 (2006)

    0,00

    0,50

    1,00

    1,50

    2,00

    2,50

    3,00

    3,50

    4,00

    ribbon multi mono ribbon multi mono

    Y ea

    r BoS Frame

    Laminate

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Energy Payback for PV Systems

    Cumulative Net Clean Energy Payoff

    120

    80

    40

    0

    M W

    h cl

    ea n

    en er

    gy

    0 5 10 15 20 25 30

    Investment

    Years

    Return

    Source: NREL

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Cost of Energy

    (EURO cent/kWh) • Fossil fuels – coal 5 - 9 – gas 3 – 5

    – Nuclear 4 - 9

    • Renewable energy – wind 4 - 12 – water 2 - 8 – biomass 5 – 9 – solar thermal 12 - 18 – Solar electricity (PV) 25 - 65

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    SOLAR ELECTRICITY

    • PV is positioned to meet the critical energy-sector demands world-wide in the coming decades.

    • The cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity:

    – too high for bulk power production in utility grids

    – cost-effective for peak power applications and local grid support

    • Important natural market in the world- wide off-grid applications

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    24h-Energy Profile

    0: 00

    6: 00

    12 :0

    0

    18 :0

    0

    24 :0

    0

    E le

    ct ric

    al E

    ne rg

    y [a

    rb . u

    ni ts

    ]

    Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff

    Electricity supplied by Utility

    Fed-In Energy

    Solar Energy

    Energy consumption of building

    Electricity supplied by Utility

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Summer

    Winter

    Standard20,64

    6,35

    26,78

    21,42

    31,92

    30

    10

    20

    ¥/kWh

    hours 1260 2418

    Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005

    winter

    summer

    $ct/kWh

    hours

    60

    20

    0

    40

    0 6 12 18 24

    Range of Electricity Prices in California (data from Alison Hyde, BSW)

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    PV Competitiveness

    Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH

    Photovoltaics

    Utility peak power

    Bulk power

    Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices

    0,0

    0,2

    0,4

    0,6

    0,8

    1,0

    1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

    €/kWh

    900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

    1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    Value of PV kWhs

    • PV solar electricity systems provide – decentralized kWhs at point of use – good integration in future Smart Electricity Networks – excellent correlation with high prices at peak hours in

    summer and afternoons

    • Value of PV kWhs is not correlated with – avoided fuel costs for power stations – cost and price of bulk power electricity

    • … but well correlated with – peak hour prices in liberalized markets (higher cost for

    peak electricity results in higher prices) – today 20 … 30 €ct/kWh – future 25 … 40 €ct/kWh

  • S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

    SRA aims quantified: characteristics of PV technology

    1980 Today 2015 / 2020 2030 Long term potential

    Typical turn-key system price (2006 €/Wp, excl. VAT)

    >30 5

    (range 4~8)

    2.5 / 2.0 1 0.5

    Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2006 €/kWh)

    >2 0.30 0.15 / 0.12 (competitive with retail electricity)

    0.06 (competitive with wholesale electricity)

    0.03

    Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies

    up to 8%

    up to 15%

    Up to 20% up to 25% up to 40%

    Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies

    (∼∼∼∼10%) up to 25%

    Up to 30% up to 40% up to 60%

    Typical system energy pay-back time